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[Aaron Strife]

The problem with the keys is outside of a few ironclad rules (incumbency, party mandate) it's easy enough to retroactively turn keys to suit whatever the result was and whichever narrative you buy at the moment.

The two I'd see in most contention are the primary challenge and the third party candidate. You could argue that Sanders' candidacy was a major roadblock to Clinton's nomination and he did fairly well - but ultimately it was never a close race. Clinton held onto a very stubborn delegate lead starting from South Carolina. In past election cycles, primary challengers dropped out when it was clear they didn't have a path to victory, but Sanders stayed in mostly on principle.

Johnson is polling okay, but we've seen in past election cycles that third party candidates' numbers drop the closer you get to election day. Is he pulling more Clinton supporters though? His and Stein's presence in the polls ranges from splitting the difference to slightly hurting Clinton, but not enough to cut into her lead. Lichtman seems to believe a big third party effect is strictly detrimental to the incumbent party but I'm not seeing that as much here. He seems to be a nonfactor.

Johnson and Sanders can essentially both be used to fit whichever outcome you desire. Want Trump to win? Then yes, they're both credible blows against Clinton's chances. Want Clinton to win? Sanders was no more than a nuisance and Johnson is a nobody. And subscribing to the keys theory will only tell us which interpretation is true after the fact.

 

[Basileus777]

Is he pulling more Clinton supporters though?

He clearly is. There's a reason Hillary almost always does better in the 2 way race than the 4 way.

 

[TumblingHippo]

I don't think I could pass up a chance to witness one of the greatest owns or meltdowns in the history of televised debates. Sure, chances are it won't have a moment like that.

But just the chance...

 

[NeoXChaos]

The problem with the keys is outside of a few ironclad rules (incumbency, party mandate) it's easy enough to retroactively turn keys to suit whatever the result was and whichever narrative you buy at the moment.

The two I'd see in most contention are the primary challenge and the third party candidate. You could argue that Sanders' candidacy was a major roadblock to Clinton's nomination and he did fairly well - but ultimately it was never a close race. Clinton held onto a very stubborn delegate lead starting from South Carolina. In past election cycles, primary challengers dropped out when it was clear they didn't have a path to victory, but Sanders stayed in mostly on principle.

Johnson is polling okay, but we've seen in past election cycles that third party candidates' numbers drop the closer you get to election day. Is he pulling more Clinton supporters though? His and Stein's presence in the polls ranges from splitting the difference to slightly hurting Clinton, but not enough to cut into her lead. Lichtman seems to believe a big third party effect is strictly detrimental to the incumbent party but I'm not seeing that as much here. He seems to be a nonfactor.

Johnson and Sanders can essentially both be used to fit whichever outcome you desire. Want Trump to win? Then yes, they're both credible blows against Clinton's chances. Want Clinton to win? Sanders was no more than a nuisance and Johnson is a nobody. And subscribing to the keys theory will only tell us which interpretation is true after the fact.

you voted today?

 

[Joeytj]

I...uhh, you guys are already giving up on the debate? Bedwetters anonymous indeed.

No no no, it's my lizard brain, I can't control it, so I just need to live it and not torture myself needlessly. Best guess, I'll watch it when the time comes and I'm not that nervous.

 

[BSsBrolly]

I'm so freaking hyyyyped for the debate! (This is life on a Friday night at 30... with kids)

 

[Holmes]

He clearly is. There's a reason Hillary almost always does better in the 2 way race than the 4 way.

Could be because the right-leaning Johnson voters, who otherwise would be voting Republican, are more solid in their support of Johnson, so their support is already baked in, showing the illusion of Johnson pulling in more support from Clinton.

Or maybe not.

 

[Spiritreaver]

Lol this Clinton Campaign email.

"right down to a cough (!) HillaryClinton.com <info@hillaryclinton.com>"

 

[User 463088]

I'm so freaking hyyyyped for the debate! (This is life on a Friday night at 30... with kids)

Bro. I get this. So much. High school football. Ice cream after. And once the kids are in bed, maybe I can have a drink. But I'm not 30...yet. THat's next year.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Not because I think she will do poorly. I will just think too much about it and get wrapped up in my head. Also I have fluid mechanics homework.

Pfft, fluid mechanics is easy. This early in the semester, you guys are probably still doing manometers.

 

[shem935]

Pfft, fluid mechanics is easy. This early in the semester, you guys are probably still doing manometers.

I'm trying not to think about it lol. But we have moved on to finding the pressure/forces/moments of fluid pushing on gates. Only did like one day of manometers, wish those would come back.

 

[Captain Pants]

I...uhh, you guys are already giving up on the debate? Bedwetters anonymous indeed.

I'm getting married in two weeks and a day. Every hour brings a new panic attack. I can't deal at this point. I'm so far past a point where I can watch something like that and not die from anxiety.

 

[Crayons]

No, that's...that's not even close to reality. Where the hell does this even come from?

can't wait to see you at the GAF meetup tomorrow friend!

 

[Doc Holliday]

I'll will be watching the debate with many beers in hand, perhaps a binder full of beers.

I shall proceed to get drunk and hopefully Hill Dawg knocks that orange mofo out.

yes it's Friday and I'm drinking!

 

[Aaron Strife]

you voted today?

I checked and it was counted today. My absentee ballot actually came in the mail 2 days ago and I mailed it in yesterday.

Clinton, Bonoff obviously

 

[Crayons]

I'll will be watching the debate with many beers in hand, perhaps a binder full of beers.

I shall proceed to get drunk and hopefully Hill Dawg knocks that orange mofo out.

yes it's Friday and I'm drinking!

I'm going to get turnt AF for the debates! I actually today asked my parents if on election day I could invite friends and we could all get drunk. So excited

 

[johnsmith]

I'm going to get turnt AF for the debates! I actually today asked my parents if on election day I could invite friends and we could all get drunk. So excited

That's cute

 

[B-Dubs]

can't wait to see you at the GAF meetup tomorrow friend!

I actually can't make it, a friend is having a birthday thing tomorrow

So we're all going out to get drunk

 

[Crayons]

I actually can't make it, a friend is having a birthday thing tomorrow

So we're all going out to get drunk

Oh man that's really too bad! I wanted to get to know PoliGAFfers like you.

 

[HylianTom]

I still remember the roller coaster ride of the Benghazi hearing last year. A ton of people were nervous for her, and then calmed down once they realized she was doing well, and then outright jubilant as the 11 hours came to a close with her not sweating one bit as Glisteny Gowdy exited for a much-needed shower.

And then the polling numbers the following week.. oh yes..

She's damn good in high-pressure situations. I think it's pretty fitting that the final boss of her career is this cartoonish boor of a man. She's been dealing with this type all her life.

 

[B-Dubs]

Oh man that's really too bad! I wanted to get to know PoliGAFfers like you.

Metsfan and Makai should be there. They're good people. Hell, the whole crew is pretty cool.

I still remember the roller coaster ride of the Benghazi hearing last year. A ton of people were nervous for her, and then calmed down once they realized she was doing well, and then outright jubilant as the 11 hours came to a close with her not sweating one bit as Glisteny Gowdy exited for a much-needed shower.

And then the polling numbers the following week.. oh yes..

She's damn good in high-pressure situations. I think it's pretty fitting that the final boss of her career is this cartoonish boor of a man. She's been dealing with this type all her life.

There'd be a certain amount of karmic justice if she beat Trump to take the presidency; not just for her, but for women in the entire country.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm going to get turnt AF for the debates! I actually today asked my parents if on election day I could invite friends and we could all get drunk. So excited

I remember my first beer

Metsfan and Makai should be there. They're good people. Hell, the whole crew is pretty cool.

I'll be there. I was gonna bail for a date but that got pushed to Sunday...

 

[Crayons]

I remember my first beer


I'll be there. I was gonna bail for a date but that got pushed to Sunday...

oh honey, I take my drinking very seriously. I'm no amateur.

Spoiler

You guys are going to have to get it for me though because I'm 20 and can't legally do so.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I'm going to get turnt AF for the debates! I actually today asked my parents if on election day I could invite friends and we could all get drunk. So excited

Are you sixteen?

Because I'll just call the police now. I have 9-1 already dialed. I'm ready.

oh honey, I take my drinking very seriously. I'm no amateur.

Spoiler

You guys are going to have to get it for me though because I'm 20 and can't legally do so.

"1".

You're fucked, junior. Enjoy jail and also, eventually, Hell.

 

[User1608]

I still remember the roller coaster ride of the Benghazi hearing last year. A ton of people were nervous for her, and then calmed down once they realized she was doing well, and then outright jubilant as the 11 hours came to a close with her not sweating one bit as Glisteny Gowdy exited for a much-needed shower.

And then the polling numbers the following week.. oh yes..

She's damn good in high-pressure situations. I think it's pretty fitting that the final boss of her career is this cartoonish boor of a man. She's been dealing with this type all her life.

The hearing was must see television and it was great to see Gowdy fail so spectacularly. Hillary will absolutely manhandle Trump for sure.

As I've repeated many times...pizza and diet coke Monday! It's going to be a riot.

 

[Crayons]

Are you sixteen?

Because I'll just call the police now. I have 9-1 already dialed. I'm ready.

I'm in my early to mid twenties.

 

[Debirudog]

oh honey, I take my drinking very seriously. I'm no amateur.

Spoiler

You guys are going to have to get it for me though because I'm 20 and can't legally do so.

1 year until you can get it all legally!

 

[User 463088]

No one better buy Crayon a beer because he's under my protection. He's just a child. Thank you.

Spoiler

Beer blocked brah

 

[BSsBrolly]

Bro. I get this. So much. High school football. Ice cream after. And once the kids are in bed, maybe I can have a drink. But I'm not 30...yet. THat's next year.

Never been happier. &#128074;&#127997;

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I'm in my early to mid twenties.

See edit above. You'll probably get the death penalty. Tough, but fair.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I still remember the roller coaster ride of the Benghazi hearing last year. A ton of people were nervous for her, and then calmed down once they realized she was doing well, and then outright jubilant as the 11 hours came to a close with her not sweating one bit as Glisteny Gowdy exited for a much-needed shower.

And then the polling numbers the following week.. oh yes..

She's damn good in high-pressure situations. I think it's pretty fitting that the final boss of her career is this cartoonish boor of a man. She's been dealing with this type all her life.

so she's not running for re-election?

 

[B-Dubs]

so she's not running for re-election?

Everything after this is just epilogue. Unless Trump comes back, then we're playing OoT and he's Ganon.

 

[HylianTom]

so she's not running for re-election?

Yeah, I could've worded that differently. (Or I should've continued my "she'll defeat Ganondorf in 2016, but he'll be back in a different form in 2020" metaphor.)

 

[User 463088]

Never been happier. &#128074;&#127997;

&#128074;&#127997;
Damn straight bro.

 

[Ecotic]

I used to believe in models like Alan Abramowitz's, and models like this new guy's with his 13 keys. But years of stock trading made me realize that you can create a trading algorithm that has 80% success over the past few months of data, and use it with great success for a while, but it will start failing sometime for reasons that are undiscernible. The underlying inputs to the algorithm (average volume, beta, correlation with the indexes) will begin to change and break the algorithm, and you have to make a new one. When I was trading I had to adjust my trading algorithms every few weeks to find a more optimal fit for the past 3 months worth of data.

The same will happen with models like the 13 keys. A model may make assumptions that will falter in time, like assuming there's a difficulty in holding the Presidency three times in a row, or holding it during a soft economy, all because of some reason like increasingly hardening partisanship.

 

[johnsmith]

Bro. I get this. So much. High school football. Ice cream after. And once the kids are in bed, maybe I can have a drink. But I'm not 30...yet. THat's next year.

From single ready to mingle to married with children in less than a year. And I always heard it was lesbians that moved fast.

 

[Makai]

Polls are the best indicator because they directly measure what we're looking for.

 

[RustyNails]

Yeah, I could've worded that differently. (Or I should've continued my "she'll defeat Ganondorf in 2016, but he'll be back in a different form in 2020" metaphor.)

I think Kefka is more suitable.

 

[Crayons]

Are you sixteen?

Because I'll just call the police now. I have 9-1 already dialed. I'm ready.



"1".

You're fucked, junior. Enjoy jail and also, eventually, Hell.

lol! fight me.

No one better buy Crayon a beer because he's under my protection. He's just a child. Thank you.

Spoiler

Beer blocked brah

you are literally the worst

 

[User 463088]

From single ready to mingle to married with children in less than a year. And I always heard it was lesbians that moved fast.

You know...ya. It was fast. But, fuck. I actually love this idiot so freaking much it hurts. It's ridiculous how much you can love someone. And, ya....plus, the boys are like....just amazing too. Hahaha, i sound like a mess. I haven't even had a drank! Honest. Tomorrow we're getting our engagement rings engraved.

lol! fight me.



you are literally the worst

I love you too.

 

[HylianTom]

Speaking of keys:
only two jobs reports remain.

If the September jobs report is fine, the time for an economic downturn narrative is all but gone. If September's is fine and October's is middling or sad, we won't know if the October one is a fluke, or a sign of things to come.

Friday, October 7th will be a morning to watch. Not a big, dramatic moment, but a box to check - one less obstacle.

 

[B-Dubs]

I used to believe in models like Alan Abramowitz's, and models like this new guy's with his 13 keys. But years of stock trading made me realize that you can create a trading algorithm that has 80% success over the past few months of data, and use it with great success for a while, but it will start failing sometime for reasons that are undiscernible. The underlying inputs to the algorithm (average volume, beta, correlation with the indexes) will begin to change and break the algorithm, and you have to make a new one. When I was trading I had to adjust my trading algorithms every few weeks to find a more optimal fit for the past 3 months worth of data.

The same will happen with models like the 13 keys. A model may make assumptions that will falter in time, like assuming there's a difficulty in holding the Presidency three times in a row, or holding it during a soft economy, all because of some reason like increasingly hardening partisanship.

The problem with models like these is that the don't have nearly enough inputs. We don't have a national election often enough for these models to be reliable. We haven't even had 100 elections in our history, you'd need at least that many in the modern era alone to make a precise model that isn't based on polling.

Polls are the best indicator because they directly measure what we're looking for.

We also have enough of them to create an accurate picture of what's going on.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Speaking of keys:
only two jobs reports remain.

If the September jobs report is fine, the time for an economic downturn narrative is all but gone. If September's is fine and October's is middling or sad, we won't know if the October one is a fluke, or a sign of things to come.

Friday, October 7th will be a morning to watch. Not a big, dramatic moment, but a box to check - one less obstacle.

Can't see it being super bad. If it was we'd know already.

 

[Crayons]

I love you too.

hopefully a cute GAFfer takes me home

 

[User 463088]

hopefully a cute GAFfer takes me home

Dont do that. Baaad idea.

 

[Crayons]

Dont do that. Baaad idea.

wait why

 

[Slayven]

Don't know why the Keys/Lichtman thing is worrying me, but it is.

Is this true diablosing?

 

[whyamihere]

You down with TPP (Yeah you know me)
Who's down with TPP (Every last homie)
You down with TPP (Yeah you know me)
Who's down with TPP (All the homies)

https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/779436913669332993

@scottlincicome
New Politico poll on #TPP:
Support: 11%
Oppose: 18%
Never heard or read *anything* abt it: 70%

 

[johnsmith]

wait why

Do you want a thread that includes a TLDR written about you?

 

[Randolph Freelander]

CNN just reported that now Hillary won't go to Charlotte this Sunday. The mayor had asked that both candidates give the city some time.

More time for debate prep or maybe a viral video with David Blaine on how to make Trump disappear.