Cesare Borgia
Banned
Turn out is almost all about your GOTV infrastructure. Clinton has perhaps the best ground machine at her disposal. Trump doesn't have anything. That alone makes me confident about turn out.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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Turn out is almost all about your GOTV infrastructure. Clinton has perhaps the best ground machine at her disposal. Trump doesn't have anything. That alone makes me confident about turn out.
Registrations and early voting have indeed shown that this supposed Trump surge doesn't exist. At least not yet.
metalslimer
Member
Few people in America care about abortion or the Supreme Court, no Trump supporter cares about climate change:
What the fuck, how is "budget deficit" still treated as serious.
Because it's been rattled into everyone's heads that the big spooky budget deficit is going to kill us all. One of the most effective tactics used was convincing people the budget needs to be like a household income.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Every office Hillary has ever held she's excelled at. I expect nothing different as president.
On the other side, who could the GOP prop up for 2020? Republican voters don't want "moderates" like Kasich or Rubio, they want insane dipshits that'll promise to take us back to the good ol' days when brown people knew their place.
This is a problem that will be faced by every Democrat till the GOP can put to bed it's racist core. Which will only happen when they die off.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
This is what I was getting at. The bar is very low for her as well. People expecting a caricature will get a real, solid candidate (the only one on stage).
I actually would LOVE a reverse by Hillary, as suicidal as it may be.
"Here, tell these people something they don't know about me"
Edit: Benjaminbirdie with the dunk!
If I recall someone said on twitter a few days ago that there is no indication white voters are registering to vote for trump in large numbers.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/779083856146202630
CNN is pathetic.
hipsterpants
Member
If anything Hillary's numbers will rise once people on the left realize that she isn't nearly as awful as Bernie convinced them she was. Of course they probably won't admit it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Oh the irony when these people who haven't voted since the 80s get to the booth and they're not registered, and their GOP Governors banned them from same day registration, or they are registered but have no idea what ID they need because of their GOP governor's stupid laws or the GOP governor purged the voter lists.
They spent most of last night and all of today talking about the debate, but "Debate Live Coverage" starts at 4pm. I don't know what that means!
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
She's probably got about 15 different variations on "you're no jack Kennedy" ready if Trump brings up Bill at all
DontBeThatGuy
Member
PA can't be that close.
but Benghazi.
Guessing that means that their panel of 20 people will speak at a desk at the debate hall.
So its, you know, totally different and live.
whyamihere
Banned
Landline only
GOP Firm (Harper)
500 respondents
This was the best they could do
Hillary: 45
Trump: 43
Johnson: 8
Stein 1
McGinty: 42
Toomey: 42
Better luck in 2020.
GOP Firm (Harper)
500 respondents
This was the best they could do
Hillary: 45
Trump: 43
Johnson: 8
Stein 1
McGinty: 42
Toomey: 42
Better luck in 2020.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Lame result on the surface, but fine for landline only.
In West Virginia, the Dems are up 13 for Governor while Trump leads the state by 32, lmao.
This is fine
Fragamemnon
Member
Does anyone else see an issue with the blanket assumption that lower educated people will somehow vote with high intensity? It's always been the case that more education => higher propensity to vote.
I don't want to veer into the dark world of unskewing polls but it feels like people are assuming that Trump's lesser-educated core is going to turn out just as much as the more educated Republican core votes in the past. It flies against what we know about the correlation between education and actual likelyhood of voting.
I don't want to veer into the dark world of unskewing polls but it feels like people are assuming that Trump's lesser-educated core is going to turn out just as much as the more educated Republican core votes in the past. It flies against what we know about the correlation between education and actual likelyhood of voting.
This is why I question polls that show trump winning non college educated whites by like 60 points because he is not doing that well with that group unless a ton of them just decide to register to vote against hilary.
Black Mamba
Member
There should be 0% from previous poll of a pollster. Each poll is an independent event and should be treated as such.
Don't worry about responding to me; I don't really read this thread during the weekend.
Also, 43-40 isn't close to even. Not with these small errors. Even at 3% error, that's almost 85% to win!
edit: Trump can't clear 43 in a landline only poll of Pa by a GOP firm. He can't win Pa.
whyamihere
Banned
tbh they'll probably give it more of a Hillary weight given that it's landline and a GOP firm.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Aggregates should really just cut off landline only polls entirely from their numbers. Extremely outdated polling method with a huge conservative bias.
RustyNails
Member
This is horrible. Shut the fuck up CNN.
It's rather similar to the Primary, I suspect. They show high enthusiasm on the surface, but are bogged down by other things. Such as registration. Of course, it's much easier in the GE, but still a problem.
Didn't stop them doing that with a CO poll a week ago
whyamihere
Banned
fwiw, Huffpost Pollster does not include landline only pollsters anymore, which was probably a good idea.
She better not go for zingers. Her "it's change you can xerox" line in '08 didn't work for her.
Black Mamba
Member
Nobody should be paying money for a landline poll. Nobody. That's how this will stop. You might as well set your money on fire.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Hillary has already been de-legitimized. Republicans have laid the groundwork for this for years with the Benghazi nonsense. Mainstream republicans are on record saying that her behavior in the Benghazi situation has "disqualified" her; this was long before Trump.
We're not going to move past a hyper partisan political climate anytime soon. The good thing about Clinton is that she doesn't have to be told any of this, she knows what the game is. There will be no time wasted extending olive branches to people who literally think she should be in jail. IMO this is one of the areas where she is better than Obama politically. Yea I understand voters have to at least see an attempt by the president to "work with the other side" but too much time was wasted on that in 2009. Hillary won't make that mistake.
Her aides said she was coming up with one-liners. So you can guarantee there will be at least one cringeworthy moment.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, she holds no thoughts of the GOP ever helping her. Gonna be lots of closed door meetings with Ryan that amount to "Here's what I'll sign, now fuck off Paul."
Wow: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Trump has lead in only 3 polls in this selection in September: FOX, UPI, CNN.
RustyNails
Member
If it's something about his ties, like before we make america great we need to make things in america, it will work. However if it's ludicrous like going after his tan or something, then that's horrible.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Russia is bombing Eastern Aleppo 50 times a day:
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/26/13059618/russia-syria-aleppo-airstrikes-data
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/26/13059618/russia-syria-aleppo-airstrikes-data
balladofwindfishes
Member
Making fun of his tan, or tiny hands, or anything like that is crass and not Hillary's style.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I mean, the thing Clinton has going for her in this debate is that she is a skilled debater and Trump is a comedy act who hasn't prepared.
I mean, that and the fact that Clinton has far less to lose at the debate. There's a very good chance that at least 1 of these debates will be an unmitigated disaster for Trump.
VA polling basically solid blue and PA still being unobtainable for Republicans still has me confident for November. I'm also pretty bullish on NC; between the solid early voting lead, far better infrastructure, and the lingering effects of HB2, it'd be pretty dang hard for Trump to keep it red.
She'll end the debate with "Pokemon Go. To. The polls!!!"
Obama isn't much better at them, especially in the first 2012 debate. Everything about that debate the cringiest.
Democrats in general aren't very good at zingers, especially forced ones, and Hillary has some hilariously bad ones too:
I hope there's no lame attempt at a cultural reference to try and appear "hip".
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Did anyone post these from Nate Silver?
Huh.
Huh.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
- Not bedwetting, still confident of Clinton win
Expectations meter:
Given that was was flirting with the idea of the top of that scale after the conventions, I am seriously brought down. But still pretty confident Clinton wins this by a comfortable margin.
Expectations meter:
Code:
Popular Vote Landslide, D House and Senate, win GA
Electoral Landslide, D Senate
---> Solid Electoral Win, Senate tossup
Narrow Electoral Win, R Senate
Narrow Loss
WTH, America? Are you insane?Given that was was flirting with the idea of the top of that scale after the conventions, I am seriously brought down. But still pretty confident Clinton wins this by a comfortable margin.
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