Yeah. Lowkey Trump incoming.
That seems charitable to Bill Cole.Because there's a very competitive governor's race there.
@DomenicoNPR Much of poll variance you're seeing is pollsters trying to predict electorate. Even most pro-R modeling has tie or Clinton up narrowly
Kinda bizarre to have such a poll dump on the day of the 1st debate, if the "debates are the main event of the campaign".
Hope this thread doesn't become a play-by-play of the debate.
I figure Donald will start off calm, but he's entirely uninteresting when he's calm. I feel he'll start to ramble as well when he has no idea what he's talking about.
That might be enough for the media but then it becomes her schooling him on substance. If Trump can't yell with cheers in the background he looks silly. We'll see though.
Definitely starts as lowkey Trump. Mark it.I figure Donald will start off calm, but he's entirely uninteresting when he's calm. I feel he'll start to ramble as well when he has no idea what he's talking about.
That might be enough for the media but then it becomes her schooling him on substance. If Trump can't yell with cheers in the background he looks silly. We'll see though.
Kinda bizarre to have such a poll dump on the day of the 1st debate, if the "debates are the main event of the campaign".
Hope this thread doesn't become a play-by-play of the debate.
Kinda bizarre to have such a poll dump on the day of the 1st debate, if the "debates are the main event of the campaign".
Hope this thread doesn't become a play-by-play of the debate.
Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted wertwhile
Very similar; tbh, it's nice to see that the distribution of their turnout scores looks like ours
That seems charitable to Bill Cole.
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Very similar; tbh, it's nice to see that the distribution of their turnout scores looks like ours
@Wertwhile
@Nate_Cohn methodology seems solid, looks a lot like your Florida poll in terms of propensity to vote/preference for Clinton
Has Punished Nate responded to Targetsmart OH poll?haha
Also, Nate Cohn thinks that TargetSmart Ohio poll seems solid:
Fantastic Ohio poll!
As for the debate tonight, I think being worried about Trump's performance is acceptable. His team probably knows his main goal here is to appear presidential and a solid leader. Wouldn't surprise me at all for him to be calm the entire way through and perhaps even completely polite, cordial, and complimentary with Hillary.
Ever been there?
It's extremely rural. Much of it is culturally similar to the deep south. I've seen confederate flags up there, which is crazy considering Maine's role in the Civil War.
This video of Tiffany Trump reading a fundraising email is weirdly creepy. Also odd they are breaking Tiffany out all of a sudden.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/780465115531386880
This video of Tiffany Trump reading a fundraising email is weirdly creepy. Also odd they are breaking Tiffany out all of a sudden.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/780465115531386880
This video of Tiffany Trump reading a fundraising email is weirdly creepy. Also odd they are breaking Tiffany out all of a sudden.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/780465115531386880
It's just surprising to me because NH has always been the swing state of New England but it seems solidly blue this cycle.
(((Harry Enten)))Verified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
Getting those Gravis/American Research Group polls in the late afternoon has really made me wish I took a nap.
I hope it does. I'm missing it live.Kinda bizarre to have such a poll dump on the day of the 1st debate, if the "debates are the main event of the campaign".
Hope this thread doesn't become a play-by-play of the debate.
I didnt know she existed. There are so many of these people you really have to wonder why they never did a Kardashian-style show on them.
Maybe it'll happen anyway
Huffpo Pollster team has a story out on this. Trump actually has higher expectations than previous "underdogs", and Hillary has lower expectations than others who were leading. Hillary-Trump spread is smaller than previous matchups.Finally read that whole Sam Wang post, and that's sorta what I was saying today also. it doesn't matter if Trump wins on low expectations, people will pick the stronger candidate, and that's almost certainly going to be Clinton on stage tonight.
Fuckery incoming
I hope it does. I'm missing it live.
Huffpo Pollster team has a story out on this. Trump actually has higher expectations than previous "underdogs", and Hillary has lower expectations than others who were leading. Hillary-Trump spread is smaller than previous matchups.
lol@imillhiser I'm prepping for the debate by reading the candidates policy proposals. Which means I'm now disqualified from ever being a TV pundit.
He actually purchased an old ass laptop late in the primary and was posting from it.Now that people mention it in the debate thread, is Daniel B going to be able to watch the debate on his PS3?
Hope he got a PS4 slim
I trust PoliGAF far more than OT.There's the debate OT for that.
New Hampshire is culturally on a different planet than Maine.It's just surprising to me because NH has always been the swing state of New England but it seems solidly blue this cycle.
Huffpo Pollster team has a story out on this. Trump actually has higher expectations than previous "underdogs", and Hillary has lower expectations than others who were leading. Hillary-Trump spread is smaller than previous matchups.
I trust PoliGAF far more than OT.
I trust PoliGAF far more than OT.
I'll probably be in here and not the OT, if only to avoid the panicking.
Can anyone hook me up with the chat link? I'll likely avoid OT tonight, too.
I trust PoliGAF far more than OT.
There is a podcast Sam Wang does called the WooCast. In a recent episode, he and his co-host invited Rebecca Traister who has written a lot about gender and politics (the podcast is titled "Gender & Politics") to talk about Hillary Clinton.
Towards the end of the podcast, Traister shares a story about 2008, when Hillary lost Iowa, and then she had a tearful moment in New Hampshire. Hillary goes on to win the New Hampshire primary, and all the coverage from the major publications/networks is about "did she win because she cried?" and so on.
Traister interviewed Ellen Malcolm (founder of EMILY's List) for a book about 2008, and Malcolm tells Traister that when Hillary won the NH primary, Hillary grabbed Malcolm's hand and said, "I'm the first woman to win a primary." A historic event that the major publications did not remember to report in their articles the day after.
Let it go. Men don't care, the media doesn't care. The younger batch of millennials is too full of themselves to care or value what any of this means to women. It's going to be all about how emotional or how cold Hillary is, how she should be doing better because for her, being 100x better than her opponent still means she's not good enough, she sucks, she's weak, she's a poor candidate, she's this, she's that, she's everything and nothing under the sun.
Can anyone hook me up with the chat link? I'll likely avoid OT tonight, too.
You don't have the server info? I'll PM it.
I'm not even looking at the internet during the debate.
The bar is set so low for Trump that I think Boring Trump will be declared a success.Boring Trump is a big risk for his campaign.
People don't want boring Trump. Boring Trump versus Hillary means Hillary wins, because, Boring Trump is as close to conventional politician as you can get. But without any policy knowledge to back it up. But, I don't think he can pull it off.
The bar is set so low for Trump that I think Boring Trump will be declared a success.