BlastProcessing
Member
Help a dumbdumb out. What's this mean?
Think of the chart like a hurricane projection path. Meta margin is a metric Wang uses:
The Wang said:The Popular Meta-Margin works like the more familiar margin between two candidates. It is defined the amount of opinion swing that is needed to bring the Median Electoral Vote Estimator to a tie. It helps you think about how far ahead one candidate really is. For example, if you think support for your candidate is understated by 1%, this can overcome an unfavorable Meta-Margin of less than 1%. If you think that between now and Election Day, 1% of voters will switch from the other candidate to yours, this is a swing of 2% and can compensate for a Meta-Margin of 2%. The Meta-Margin has a useful precision of approximately a tenth of a percentage point.
Holy shit, this song / video were tailor made to this election, and its from 2009:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV4oYkIeGJc
The original video is also relevant (and in my old-ass opinion, better)
If these 2 are the best pollsters, how does one reconcile the different result? Methodology? Turnout?
Or it could just be regular sampling error.
Not just sampling error. There are other ways that polls can have variance. The Upshot gave 4 different polsters the same sample data and they all came to different conclusions.
All are good pollsters and all used defensible likely voter models. The results were everywhere between Trump +1 and Clinton +4. Thats a huge variance from the same data.
It's why we should always average polls.