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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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J

Joeytj

Banned
Teggy said:
Well this is a new one:



However, gunman appears to be of Indian descent.
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Hitler considered Indians part of the Aryan race, so some Hindu extremist love Hitler for that idea.

It has been used to describe all indo-Europeans, the hypothetical Aryan people in Persia and India and the Nordic or Germanic peoples.[1] The term derives from the Aryan people, from Persia and India, who spoke a language similar to what has been found in Europe.
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A

Alcander

Member
Loudninja said:
Eh I doubt she under much at all she does this stuff all the time.
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I think you are kidding yourself if you don't think she is feeling any pressure. Of course she is. I DO think she handles herself well under pressure though, which is another thing entirely.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Alcander said:
I'm so F-ing stressed for tonight. I can't even imagine the amount of pressure she's under. Unbelievable.
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She's been here before and quite frankly was probably under more pressure in the Benghazi hearings.

She knows the importance of this. 90 minutes is a long time but I trust her to handle it far better than I do Trump.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Loudninja said:
Eh I doubt she under much at all she does this stuff all the time.
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Eh, she's still a human being that has worked a lot to get here.

GettyImages-538718736-640x480.jpg


Funny enough, the only picture I found in a quick search is from Breitbart.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Loudninja said:
Eh I doubt she under much at all she does this stuff all the time.
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Obama is the president of the United States and has been for 8 years, and probably the best public speaker of our lives, and even he gets nervous making speeches.

I'd be surprised if someone didn't get nervous. Although I think Trump probably doesn't because he really doesn't care about what he says.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
William & Mary, OH

http://targetsmart.com/tswmp-ohio/

Hillary: 40.0
Trump: 37.3
Johnson: 8.3
Stein: 2.1

Seems like a decent methodology using the voter file:

The TargetSmart William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 580 online interviews were conducted from September 15-20, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. As weighted, 241 telephone interviews were conducted from September 20-22, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file. Results were weighted by TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, and media market to match the demographic characteristics of registered voters in the state. A second round of weighting was employed to derive a sub-sample of “Likely Voters.” Weights that resulted from the first round of weighting were multiplied by each respondent’s TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score, as expressed as a value between 0.0 and 1.0. The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout model is an ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an individual will vote in the 2016 general election. No margins or sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interviews.
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D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
A Link to the Past said:
The three worst things that Hillary can do at the debate:

1. Express too much emotion
2. Express too little emotion
3. Express an amount of emotion that sits perfectly even between too much and too little
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Basically. The quiet sexists will find something wrong with her no matter how she presents herself.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Polls dropping today are starting to paint a better picture for Hillary at the last moment before the debate, especially in some states.

Let's hope the debate propels that rocket further.

EDIT:
NYCmetsfan said:
lol hillary already back up on the now-cast
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There you go. Nate will just say "well, that's what the Now Cast is for!"
Clicks, of course.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Just to go over this past days

Hillary +4 nationally (YouGov)
Hillary +7 in Minnesota
Trump +2 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary + 1 in North Carolina (voter file poll)
Hillary +2 in Florida
Hillary +4 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary +2 in Pennsylvania (GOP pollster, landline)
Hillary + 5 nationally
Trump + 32 in West Virginia
Hillary + 3 in Ohio
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damn WV getting away from Hillary
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
So if we're keeping score, this morning started out with Selzer dropping a Trump +2 national poll and CNN dropping essentially tied polls in PA and CO.

Since then it's been

Clinton +5 nationally
Clinton +4 nationally
Clinton +2 in Florida
Clinton +2 in Ohio
Clinton +6 in Virginia
Clinton +1 in North Carolina
Clinton +2 in Pennsylvania (landline only)
 
T

thebloo

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
I don't completely understand nates model.

Look at PA

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Literally Clinton has not been behind in a single poll in september. She's winning ever race. How is she only at 64% chance to win? Shouldn't it be like 90+? How could literally everypoll be wrong? What are the chances? like 1%?
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Trump is at 44.7% in vote share. He has hit 44% 3 times in the top 20 weighted polls. He has been above 44% 4 times in total.

I really don't follow.
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
I'd like to imagine that Hillary is sitting alone in a locker room with the Rocky training montage music playing in the background right now.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
So if we're keeping score, this morning started out with Selzer dropping a Trump +2 national poll and CNN dropping essentially tied polls in PA and CO.

Since then it's been

Clinton +5 nationally
Clinton +4 nationally
Clinton +2 in Florida
Clinton +2 in Ohio
Clinton +6 in Virginia
Clinton +1 in North Carolina
Clinton +2 in Pennsylvania (landline only)
Click to expand...

But CO and PA are by far the most important in that they had "new" "info".
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Zukkoyaki said:
So if we're keeping score, this morning started out with Selzer dropping a Trump +2 national poll and CNN dropping essentially tied polls in PA and CO.

Since then it's been

Clinton +5 nationally
Clinton +4 nationally
Clinton +2 in Florida
Clinton +2 in Ohio
Clinton +6 in Virginia
Clinton +1 in North Carolina
Clinton +2 in Pennsylvania (landline only)
Click to expand...

Mostly good news - using this as a handy dandy monitor

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now

Worst ones for Clinton are ties in Michigan and Wisconsin, Nevada +2 Trump, PA +2 Trump. That Ipsos drop is...something (I don't think they have been fully incorporated into the model as I don't see them on individual states pages)

EDIT: Johnson undecideds are splitting about 50/50 in two person races - the reason Clinton is getting a bump in some states is because Stein voters are going for her. Depends how big Johnson is in the state compared to Stein.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Cybit said:
Mostly good news - using this as a handy dandy monitor

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now

Worst ones for Clinton are ties in Michigan and Wisconsin, Nevada +2 Trump, PA +2 Trump. That Ipsos drop is...something (I don't think they have been fully incorporated into the model as I don't see them on individual states pages)
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't think they weigh Ipsos state polls normally because they're prone to strange results. Last week they had Trump winning in Vermont.

Edit: Actually I don't think they are even "real" polls. To my knowledge they are just the state-by-state results of their week-long daily national polling. I could be wrong though.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Kusagari said:
I've got to say, I'm getting curious about Maine. Why does Trump consistently seem to be polling so well there?
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Ever been there?

It's extremely rural. Much of it is culturally similar to the deep south. I've seen confederate flags up there, which is crazy considering Maine's role in the Civil War.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I agree with this:

@sahilkapur
Clinton comms director Jennifer Palmieri on what they expect from Trump tonight: "Boring but lying."
Click to expand...

‏@sahilkapur
Clinton spox J. Palmieri: "We think he'll be disciplined. We think he'll try to get under her skin. We don't think he'll be successful."
Click to expand...
 
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