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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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T

thebloo

Member
Joeytj said:
She'll end the debate with "Pokemon Go. To. The polls!!!"

Obama isn't much better at them, especially in the first 2012 debate. Everything about that debate the cringiest.

Democrats in general aren't very good at zingers, especially forced ones, and Hillary has some hilariously bad ones too:
Click to expand...

I remember Obama's "cavalry" bit, which was funny. Stupid if you think about it, but still funny.

Also, "change you can Xerox" is not a horrible line. But it shouldn't have come from her, it's a thing to have surrogates say.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Russia and Assad might be leaning towards killing all 250k people in Aleppo that are with anti-Assad forces.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/w...y-council.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

In the past few days, pro-government forces have signaled that they are escalating efforts to press the tactics to their conclusion in Aleppo, step by step. On Sunday, Syria’s United Nations ambassador punctuated the message, declaring that the government would reclaim all of the city.

First came new waves of airstrikes, Aleppo’s worst bombardment of the war. The bombings were so ferocious that the United States and Britain accused Russia of “barbarism” and “war crimes” for backing the Syrian air campaign.

More than 90 people died on Friday, and more than 100 on Saturday. At one hospital, nearly half of the 67 people treated for injuries were children. On Sunday, scores in the rebel-held districts were dead by evening.

But it was not just the volume of bombs that made the airstrikes devastating. They also hit, one by one, the systems that have kept life inching along.

Rescue workers in Aleppo reported that their cars and headquarters were among the first targets hit on Friday. The effect was instant: Now, when people are buried in rubble, no one comes. Or it takes longer for them to arrive. Relatives are again exhuming relatives with their hands.

Next, a much deadlier weapon than had been seen before was introduced: a heavy-duty ground-penetrating bomb, known as a bunker-buster. Turning whole buildings into craters yards deep, these bombs also threaten basement shelters and water pipes — not to mention the schools, clinics and even playgrounds built underground over the years to help minimize the damage of airstrikes.

As medical workers, rescuers and residents navigate the chaos, every now and then, on their phones, a text message pings, offering help. The texts, from the government, say that Russia is providing aid to people in the government-held side of the city, and is available to any who return to the bosom of the state.
Click to expand...
 
T

thebloo

Member
Crab said:
Clinton can't do one-liners, though.
Click to expand...

hillary.0.gif
 
T

Toxi

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Few people in America care about abortion or the Supreme Court, no Trump supporter cares about climate change:

FT_16.08.11_debateTopics.png


What the fuck, how is "budget deficit" still treated as serious.
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Nobody caring about the Supreme Court is one of the scariest things for me when you consider how much impact the SC has had.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crab why don't you stop spending so much time defending milennials and more time milling animals!!!!!
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Iolo said:
Her aides said she was coming up with one-liners. So you can guarantee there will be at least one cringeworthy moment.
Click to expand...

New drinking game: if Hillary mentions any sort of meme, finish the rest of your bottle, finish off the rest of your liquor cabinet, DNR.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
whyamihere said:
Just to go over this past 12 hours

Hillary +4 nationally (YouGov)
Hillary +7 in Minnesota
Trump +2 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary + 1 in North Carolina (voter file poll)
Hillary +2 in Florida
Hillary +4 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary +2 in Pennsylvania (GOP pollster, landline)
Hillary + 5 nationally
Click to expand...

cool.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Neogaf why don't you stop complaining about CNN and start seeing end to end the WHOLE picture!!!!!
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Toxi said:
Nobody caring about the Supreme Court is one of the scariest things for me when you consider how much impact the SC has had.
Click to expand...

As you are a spider, you clearly don't understand how important the 10-30 deaths a year from terrorism are. I mean, yes, that's like the amount of gun suicides that happen in a random five hour interval in the year, but terrorism is just so important because sometimes the killers are brown.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Dierce said:
Assad and Putin must pay for this. The world is too accepting of lunatics and tyrants. What would it take to have Russia kicked out of the UN?
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Russia launching a nuclear strike against Estonia for no reason and then Russia executing their entire LGBT and Jewish population and then a revolution where all of their government was executed in the streets and then the new government wanted to leave the UN to apologize to the world.

(Russia is not going to be kicked out of the UN).
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Nate is obviously a smart guy but he's making a complete ass out of himself.

Maybe do a better job of explaining your model instead of just saying, "I'm smarter than you." and saying the rest of the forecasting industry is in denial.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
Crab why don't you stop spending so much time defending milennials and more time milling animals!!!!!
Click to expand...

Because I have strong opinions about animal rights, and so do millennials.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
On one hand I think Nate Silver is really acting like a clown this cycle, on the other hand I've said that about everyone who has ever criticized his model(s) when their pick wasn't favored.

I'm saying I think he's wrong this time but I'm hedging by noting that he's been amazingly accurate until now.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
PantherLotus said:
On one hand I think Nate Silver is really acting like a clown this cycle, on the other hand I've said that about everyone who has ever criticized his model(s) when their pick wasn't favored.

I'm saying I think he's wrong this time but I'm hedging by noting that he's been amazingly accurate until now.
Click to expand...

And the other thing.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
What are the ways the debate could help/hurt Hillary?

Seems like her biggest risks are appearing too sickly, too dispassionate, or too forceful (read: "bitchy").
 
A

A Link to the Past

Banned
Valhelm said:
What are the ways the debate could help/hurt Hillary?

Seems like her biggest risks are appearing too sickly, too dispassionate, or too forceful (read: "bitchy").
Click to expand...

The three worst things that Hillary can do at the debate:

1. Express too much emotion
2. Express too little emotion
3. Express an amount of emotion that sits perfectly even between too much and too little
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
dramatis said:
There is a podcast Sam Wang does called the WooCast. In a recent episode, he and his co-host invited Rebecca Traister who has written a lot about gender and politics (the podcast is titled "Gender & Politics") to talk about Hillary Clinton.

Towards the end of the podcast, Traister shares a story about 2008, when Hillary lost Iowa, and then she had a tearful moment in New Hampshire. Hillary goes on to win the New Hampshire primary, and all the coverage from the major publications/networks is about "did she win because she cried?" and so on.

Traister interviewed Ellen Malcolm (founder of EMILY's List) for a book about 2008, and Malcolm tells Traister that when Hillary won the NH primary, Hillary grabbed Malcolm's hand and said, "I'm the first woman to win a primary." A historic event that the major publications did not remember to report in their articles the day after.

Let it go. Men don't care, the media doesn't care. The younger batch of millennials is too full of themselves to care or value what any of this means to women. It's going to be all about how emotional or how cold Hillary is, how she should be doing better because for her, being 100x better than her opponent still means she's not good enough, she sucks, she's weak, she's a poor candidate, she's this, she's that, she's everything and nothing under the sun.
Click to expand...

This story killed me when I heard it. That whole episode is a must listen as far as I'm concerned.
 
H

Hellsing321

Member
Aaron Strife said:
What's ridiculous is he wouldn't have had to eat so much crow if he just trusted his numbers which showed Trump with a commanding lead all the way.
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He kept believing in "the party decides" to the end without realizing that the party did decide. They decided they didn't care enough about Trump being their candidate to do anything to stop him.
 
D

Debirudog

Member
I don't think I can watch the debates actually. I'll love to see Hillary debate but I just know I'll have this urge to strangle the orange turd from the screen.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Zukkoyaki said:
That is exactly what he means. According to 538, there's a near one in five chance Trump wins MARYLAND.
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Reminder that the Cavs had a 15% chance to beat Golden State when down 3-1 when using models, but most people would have assumed that it was a 0-5% chance. People are bad at understanding odds at extremes. I mean - what are the odds that Trump does really well at the debate / Clinton does really poorly?

Black Mamba said:
There should be 0% from previous poll of a pollster. Each poll is an independent event and should be treated as such.

Don't worry about responding to me; I don't really read this thread during the weekend.

Also, 43-40 isn't close to even. Not with these small errors. Even at 3% error, that's almost 85% to win!

edit: Trump can't clear 43 in a landline only poll of Pa by a GOP firm. He can't win Pa.
Click to expand...

Yeah, PA is done for.

I guess I am accounting for a potential 3 point swing (which is about where the debate swings end up historically IIRC) still upcoming, and I think the 3 pt lead on a national level overstates the electoral lead (since it may be running up the score in states that are already solidly blue). While I am hoping that Clinton will be the beneficiary of that 3 pt swing; can't assume it one way or the other. If there was no debate, then that 3 point lead would be pretty nice.

Fundamentally I see where Plouffe's optimism is - because I don't know how Trump does better than this map barring major polling errors.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/xoXAZ

No worries; I tend to be busy during the weekend and end up not responding, but it was an interesting discussion and didn't want to leave it unanswered.

balladofwindfishes said:
Aggregates should really just cut off landline only polls entirely from their numbers. Extremely outdated polling method with a huge conservative bias.
Click to expand...

I believe even 538 has said that they will probably cut these off starting next year; Silver and Cohen talked about it on one of the pods IIRC. They debated cutting them out this year, but they want to see how badly they are off this year and then make the decision after this election.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Well this is a new one:

HOUSTON - The gunman who carried out Monday morning's shooting that wounded nine people was wearing what appeared to be a Nazi uniform, two law enforcement sources told Channel 2 Investigates' Robert Arnold.

The shooting was reported just after 6 a.m. near a shopping center on the northwest corner of Weslayan and Bissonnet streets.
Click to expand...

However, gunman appears to be of Indian descent.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Cybit said:
I believe even 538 has said that they will probably cut these off starting next year; Silver and Cohen talked about it on one of the pods IIRC. They debated cutting them out this year, but they want to see how badly they are off this year and then make the decision after this election.
Click to expand...

My guess is this is what happens once the election is over, but there are also so few landline only polls anymore anyway.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Reminder that the Cavs had a 15% chance to beat Golden State when down 3-1 when using models, but most people would have assumed that it was a 0-5% chance. People are bad at understanding odds at extremes. I mean - what are the odds that Trump does really well at the debate / Clinton does really poorly?
Click to expand...
I mean there are some states where Trump isn't winning even if Hilary Clinton has a stroke on stage.
 
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