Support NeoGAF

[thefro]

I truly don't understand this.

Seems like number of voters allegedly polled overrides everything else in the model.

Like a D+ pollster could sample "3000 voters" and be the highest-weighed poll.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Holy shit.

Whoah! I assumed it was Ron Reagan, not Michael :O

 

[Bronx-Man]

Who doesn't

Dummy can't even sell properly.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Silver's model added the new CO numbers. It's still weighting older, lower graded polls with higher weights.

....

That Monmouth poll is only 400 people. That's small enough to be concerning.

 

[User 463088]

Ohio is a mess.

 

[whyamihere]

That Monmouth poll is only 400 people. That's small enough to be concerning.

Gotcha. Okay, that makes more sense.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Seems like number of voters allegedly polled overrides everything else in the model.

Like a D+ pollster could sample "3000 voters" and be the highest-weighed poll.

The Drudge poll has like 15000 voters, Silver needs to give that one infinite weight.

 

[Plinko]

Feeling more and more confident about my Ohio Trump win prediction every day. The state is prime Trump territory. It screams "Trump."

Everything else is fantastic. Florida would be huge and make for a stress-free election night.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 6m6 minutes ago
Q PA - HRC +8 w/ college whites, -21 non-col whites. OH, -12 col white, -20 non-col

.

 

[BitStyle]

Well!

Nice!

 

[nature boy]

It's like when you're snorting a coke line and a random bit of salt was mixed in it.

LOL.

I'll gladly take a solid lead in FL over a toss-up or Orange Menace lead in OH.

Q polls just confirm OH might not be worth the battle VS fighting in other places (AZ, NC).

 

[thebloo]

Trump managed to be such a fucking mess that Hillary just soared by giving a speech for the little guy against corporations. I mean, the idea of this speech getting good feedback 6 months ago is laughable.

 

[starmud]

It's bizarre to think of Ohio as a potential loss, compared to NC... or for that fact Arizona, didn't the last few polls have HRC down by less than 5?

Ohio is going to be close, I can't see trump winning by a few points but I think it's going to be a hard squeeze from here till Election Day.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

.

College white people in Ohio, what's going on here.

 

[Atlagev]

.Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 6m6 minutes ago
Q PA - HRC +8 w/ college whites, -21 non-col whites. OH, -12 col white, -20 non-col

Ohio State. The shame of the B1G.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

.

College white people in Ohio, what's going on here.

I went to Miami and they closed down Western so I can see this.

 

[thebloo]

College white people in Ohio, what's going on here.

Trump is the only chance to make the state great again. By making all the others suck.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Final prediction: Hillary - 329 Trump - 209

 

[RustyNails]

.

This makes no sense. What are they teaching in Ohio colleges???

Spoiler

i went to OSU

 

[mo60]

Final prediction: Hillary - 329 Trump - 209

Final prediction 348-190.

 

[avaya]

Final prediction: Hillary - 329 Trump - 209

Bams 12 + NC - OH?

 

[HylianTom]

Bams 12 + NC - OH?

I still don't believe in Iowa.

 

[Grief.exe]

His shitty comments about suicidal vets as well.

Oh fuck.

Forgot about PTSD vets 'weak' comments.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

College white people in Ohio, what's going on here.

This makes no sense. What are they teaching in Ohio colleges???

Spoiler

i went to OSU

lmao

we're the only people in this thread who get it, m'man

 

[Emarv]

.

Ohio was a mistake.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Trump is the only chance to make the state great again. By making all the others suck.

haha

 

[Bronx-Man]

Bams 12 + NC - OH?

Yep. Iowa will fall into place.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Ohio State gets all the blame if Hillary loses Ohio I guess.

 

[User 463088]

My guess is 322-216.
2012-Ohio-Iowa-ME-2+NC

 

[avaya]

I think Bams 12 + NC.

Full Plouffe.

 

[RustyNails]

My guess is 322-216.
2012-Ohio-Iowa-ME-2+NC

My prediction is Obama 2008 + Arizona + Georgia. Minus Ohio. Ohio is a big fat mess.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm looking over responses right now. Most of you guys picked IA and OH as Hillary wins.

 

[mo60]

I think Bams 12 + NC.

Full Plouffe.

Maybe add on NE-2 into his prediction if hilary is lucky.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Donald Trump's charity was shut down and he might be facing fraud charges a month before the election and Fox New's top story is some stupid Hillary email garbage nobody cares about.

They're getting super desperate.

 

[Grief.exe]

My prediction is Obama 2008 + Arizona + Georgia. Minus Ohio. Ohio is a big fat mess.

The far reaching implications of the electoral map changes will be an interesting discussion post election.

Things like NC/Arizona/Georgia/Texas are going to be 2020 swing states, Ohio could be gone permanently.

 

[Hooligan69]

SIT DOWN, SHUT UP, AND THINK ABOUT THIS.

Think about Alicia Machado right now, think about her. Think about the person. Think about the shame she endured at the hands of Trump. Think about the awful, degrading attacks he made to her face, behind her back, on camera, in print and years after the fact. Think about him parading her around and forcing her to exercise in public. Think about what that must've done to her life, her soul.

Now think about how this circles around. Waiting for 20-25 years, to strike at the heart of the beast with probably one of hundreds of people he's abused over the years. THINK ABOUT THAT.

I don't know how she feels now, and I don't know how she felt then. I can tell you how it feels to see a victim raise up and strike back at her abuser. It's not a good feeling, but it is a righteous one. Think about how it must feel to his other victims, to all other victims out there right now watching this rich, white, elderly, obese disgusting pervert of a 'man' be brought down so low by someone he discarded so long ago. Think about that.

May that fucker burn in hell.

(catching up) Oh hell fucking yeah!!!!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The far reaching implications of the electoral map changes will be an interesting discussion post election.

Things like NC/Arizona/Georgia/Texas are going to be 2020 swing states, Ohio could be gone permanently.

Ohio and Virginia off the Swing State list, NC and Arizona get added to the list

Seems about right.

 

[Makai]

The far reaching implications of the electoral map changes will be an interesting discussion post election.

Things like NC/Arizona/Georgia/Texas are going to be 2020 swing states, Ohio could be gone permanently.

No way

 

[mo60]

Donald Trump's charity was shut down and he might be facing fraud charges a month before the election and Fox New's top story is some stupid Hillary email garbage nobody cares about.

They're getting super desperate.

What?

 

[embalm]

I have more anecqdotal conversation pieces for Ohio. This weekend I got to hang out with some of my Republican leaning friends.

One is a Spanish Teacher. He never liked Donald and was going to vote 3rd party. After the debate he made up his mind and is voting for Hillary.

One is an ex-marine. He is voting Hillary and believes that she is the only viable option in this election.

Both of them are mid-thirties, college educated, white males. It's good to see them swinging blue this election. They will probably vote red for the senate.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

What?

Well, not quite shut down, but he can no longer take donations and has 15 days to comply with full documents for the last 15 years

So, basically shut down

 

[Atomic Playboy]

What?

Oh yes.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Ohio State gets all the blame if Hillary loses Ohio I guess.

Um, Miami much?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Georgia needs a lot of minority immigration to become a blue state.

I don't know if it will ever be a swing state between the two current parties because it's so inelastic.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Nate believes if Hillary wins Florida, it's over for Trump

Without Florida, Trump only has a 5% chance of winning the presidency in their simulations

 

[Jeels]

Both of them are mid-thirties, college educated, white males. It's good to see them swinging blue this election. They will probably vote red for the senate.

Man, I get that people have nuanced opinions, but splitting the legislative and executive is just asking for nothing to get done. :/

 

[banefirelord]

Final prediction 348-190.

Final prediction: Hillary - 329 Trump - 209

Final prediction: Hillary 316, Trump 222. Firewall - ME2 + FL + NC

 

[Paskil]

I'm looking over responses right now. Most of you guys picked IA and OH as Hillary wins.

I stand by both picks.

 

[ampere]

I think Bams 12 + NC.

Full Plouffe.

I've been on this train, but Ohio looks really rough and I haven't seen an Iowa poll recently

I'm looking over responses right now. Most of you guys picked IA and OH as Hillary wins.

How do we check our entries? I don't want to change it, just can't remember if I did Plouffe's 2012 + NC or a slight variation

 

[mo60]

Georgia needs a lot of minority immigration to become a blue state.

I don't know if it will ever be a swing state between the two current parties because it's so inelastic.

Technically people are counting it as a swing state in this election even though in the last month or so it moved slightly towards trump. Hilary can still win the state if she wins nationally by around 8 points.