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[mo60]

Final prediction: Hillary 316, Trump 222. Firewall - ME2 + FL + NC

Actually my final prediction is a bit higher than that, but my minimum prediction is slightly lower than that.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

I stand by both picks.

Trump's lead in the Ohio polls has been too consistent for me to think he's not gonna take that state.

 

[Thaedolus]

As an Arizonan I think there's too much GOP fuckery going on RE: vote suppression for us to be competitive, but our mail in ballots should be here soon and our house will be putting 4 votes drop Hillary down.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Today's battleground polls:
CO: Clinton +11
FL: Clinton +5
NC: Clinton +3
NC: Clinton +1
OH: Trump +5
PA: Clinton +4

As I said, this would pretty much be a realignment election if this holds.

If Selzer is such a good fucking pollster why do they include Stein in NC when she isn't even on the ballot?

 

[Cerium]

Nate believes if Hillary wins Florida, it's over for Trump

Nate believes water wet, sky blue.

 

[ShOcKwAvE]

Nate believes if Hillary wins Florida, it's over for Trump

Without Florida, Trump only has a 5% chance of winning the presidency in their simulations

I think this has been said in some form or another for many months.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Clinton 323
Trump 215

Hillary: Obama 2012 but wins NC, loses OH and IA.

 

[Emarv]

My prediction. Ohio is trash and we should kick it out of the union.

 

[PInk Tape]

Ohio pls. Learn to love yourselves.

Also I keep getting ads to donate to Mark Kirk; I honestly don't deserve this kind of torture.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Nate believes if Hillary wins Florida, it's over for Trump

Without Florida, Trump only has a 5% chance of winning the presidency in their simulations

Honestly even 5% seems high. Without Florida, Trump needs Nevada and either Virgina or Colorado + NH. I'm not sure he gets within three points in any of the last three.

 

[banefirelord]

My prediction. Ohio is trash and we should kick it out of the union.

Ohio: The New Florida

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Poor Jon Lester

https://twitter.com/Chicagoist/status/783018792955748352

 

[ampere]

My prediction. Ohio is trash and we should kick it out of the union.

What about adam, ebay and the mankys?

Also, how you gonna ever make WV blue. cmon son

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Also, how you gonna ever make WV blue. cmon son

Wake them up on November 9 with the news that Hillary won.

 

[Plinko]

Clinton 323
Trump 215

Hillary: Obama 2012 but wins NC, loses OH and IA.

This is my prediction as well. I think Hillary has a better shot at Iowa than Ohio.

 

[Emarv]

Ohio: The New Florida

Coincidence that Lebron played for Ohio and Florida? I think not!

 

[cartoon_soldier]

THIS!!!!

@mattyglesias 54s54 seconds ago
Now it looks like North Carolina is the new Ohio. And Virginia turned blue so fast it never got to be a swing state.

Will also hold true for 2020.

 

[Veritigo_X]

My prediction. Ohio is trash and we should kick it out of the union.

I really hope we start to see increasingly delirious maps from Trump supporters leading up to election day. I kinda miss that from the primary.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is like when LeBron was down 3-1 in the Finals, I trust in LeBron.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I've been on this train, but Ohio looks really rough and I haven't seen an Iowa poll recently



How do we check our entries? I don't want to change it, just can't remember if I did Plouffe's 2012 + NC or a slight variation

Yours was Obama 2012+NC

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I really hope we start to see increasingly delirious maps from Trump supporters leading up to election day. I kinda miss that from the primary.

"All we need to do is flip California and New York."

 

[banefirelord]

Gotta say, it's feels very empowering living in a swing state for a change. Granted, I voted absentee in '12 for Virginia, but going to school in Massachusetts made it feel very distant and detached.

Before that, I had the double democratic displeasure of being too young to vote and living in Wyoming so my vote wouldn't have meant jack shit anyway.

 

[Emarv]

I really hope we start to see increasingly delirious maps from Trump supporters leading up to election day. I kinda miss that from the primary.

The maps we were seeing from Trump supporters during the RNC were some of my favorite things of the summer.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

So do the VPs spend time attacking each other? Or do they talk about the Presidential nominees a lot?

 

[ampere]

This is like when LeBron was down 3-1 in the Finals, I trust in LeBron.

He's already done the impossible, what's a 6 point swing in three weeks!

Yours was Obama 2012+NC

That's what I thought, thanks.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

It does seem likely that Trump will continue to have a ton of bad PR going forward, and even worse debate performances, so who's knows what these polls will look like 3-4 weeks from now.

 

[Slayven]

Every time I take a mid day nap I wake up to some horrible news for trump. Hell I slept through the debate and look what happened

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I think there is still a very good change Ohio goes Blue. We have yet to see how Trump handles another week of losing.

 

[B-Dubs]

Every time I take a mid day nap I wake up to some horrible news for trump. Hell I slept through the debate and look what happened

Maybe we should put you in cryo-sleep until November.

 

[Holmes]

Every time I take a mid day nap I wake up to some horrible news for trump. Hell I slept through the debate and look what happened

Sleep more.

 

[whyamihere]

I'd go 323 - 215

Hillary wins NC, FL, NE-2

Trump wins IA, OH, ME-2

 

[Protein]

My prediction. Ohio is trash and we should kick it out of the union.

Too late, the entire nation is already stuck in Ohio.

 

[Emarv]

Every time I take a mid day nap I wake up to some horrible news for trump. Hell I slept through the debate and look what happened

Time to take one for the team and just go into hibernation until November.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Maybe we should put you in cryo-sleep until November.

That could backfire. The key might be Slayven waking up, not sleeping.

 

[Gruco]

Nate believes if Hillary wins Florida, it's over for Trump

Without Florida, Trump only has a 5% chance of winning the presidency in their simulations

dat cutting edge, data driven journalism

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama 2012 + NE-2, AZ, NC

IA/OH will come around.

Spoiler

i hope

 

[mo60]

I really hope we start to see increasingly delirious maps from Trump supporters leading up to election day. I kinda miss that from the primary.

Well right now they think trump's going to win this election because of some poll that is showing trump leading by a few points nationally right now.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Gotta say, it's feels very empowering living in a swing state for a change. Granted, I voted absentee in '12 for Virginia, but going to school in Massachusetts made it feel very distant and detached.

Before that, I had the double democratic displeasure of being too young to vote and living in Wyoming so my vote wouldn't have meant jack shit anyway.

In Wyoming, your vote is proportionally worth more than anywhere else in the country. You could have gotten like 12 friends together and shifted the entire state blue.

 

[Kusagari]

Obama 2012 + NE-2, AZ, NC

IA/OH will come around.

Spoiler

i hope

I feel like it's far more likely she gets GA than AZ at this point.

 

[starmud]

Has Ohio really changed that much in a cycle or what's driving the anger/change drive in Ohio? Winning college whites seems to say people are willing to hold their nose for trumps type of messaging.

Or maybe Ohio really is trapped in the 90's and it's not Clinton friendly lol... if it is the one fall out it's going to be interesting as to why.

 

[Fragamemnon]

NC has a really short clock for Trump to catch up to. Early voting here starts in a couple of weeks and the state has huge amounts of voters that do vote early.

Also Dems here have their crap together and HB2 has everyone pissed off (see the McRory/Cooper numbers).

 

[banefirelord]

In Wyoming, your vote is proportionally worth more than anywhere else in the country. You could have gotten like 12 friends together and shifted the entire state blue.

To be fair, I did live in the only county that went blue in '08. Always felt a bit like living in a Fallout Vault surrounded by the devastated red wasteland of the rest of the state.

 

[mo60]

I feel like it's far more likely she gets GA than AZ at this point.

AZ is actually a bit easier for hilary to get if she's leading by around 7 points nationally unless shady stuff happen on election day in that state.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Has Ohio really changed that much in a cycle or what's driving the anger/change drive in Ohio? Winning college whites seems to say people are willing to hold their nose for trumps type of messaging.

Or maybe Ohio really is trapped in the 90's and it's not Clinton friendly lol... if it is the one fall out it's going to be interesting as to why.

Read Kyle Kondiks article. He explains it well. It's a good read

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...ll-do-better-in-ohio-than-he-does-nationally/

David Jarman ‏@DavidLJarman 12m12 minutes ago
@kkondik In Oct. 31, 2012 Qpac crosstabs Romney was +9 w/college whites, only +2 w/NCWs

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 2m2 minutes ago
Kyle Kondik Retweeted David Jarman
Right. Q poll from late 2012 compared to now shows Trump basically running same as Romney w/ college whites and way ahead among non-col

 

[Pyrokai]

Can't believe what's going on in Ohio. I was just out for a walk yesterday and saw TONS of Clinton signs and thought things were on the up and up. I'm so disappointed in my state right now.

I guess my Columbus bubble is real, lol.

 

[Emarv]

Nate believes if Hillary wins Florida, it's over for Trump

Without Florida, Trump only has a 5% chance of winning the presidency in their simulations

not that it matters, but this is a Harry Enten piece, not Silver. same difference, but still. I like Harry a little more.

 

[Plinko]

I'd be curious to know how much Tim Kaine plays into the Virginia numbers, if at all.

 

[darkstar0155]

I think there is still a very good change Ohio goes Blue. We have yet to see how Trump handles another week of losing.

I can get him winning, but being up 5 after this week? wierd

 

[Wiz]

Reading some of these EC predictions, what's the deal with the NE & ME districts? Has there been any polling to show they will swing one way or another this year?

Btw, I think Hillary will get 323 to Donald's 215.

Obama 2012 - Iowa - Ohio + NC

 

[DrForester]

Trump doing two rallies in Colorado today. I love that new poll, but I want to see him give it up here. He's been visiting too often.

Am kind of interested to see how his Pueblo Rally went today. That's a big Hispanic community.



What else is he up to this week? Is there any indication that he's doing more prep work for the debate this time?