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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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O

Owzers

Member
maabus1999 said:
So the u.s. is saying Russia did the strike on the humanitarian Convoy in Syria and the u.s.follows with more details and proof Russia did it it will be very interesting if they ask Trump during the debates why he says nice things about Putin when basically Putin just committed a war crime
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Well i don't know anything about that and the U.S. has done things too, they bombed Syrian soldiers who were attacking ISIS....

there's no way it doesn't go in that direction.
 
E

embalm

Member
Diablos said:
The funny thing is this could be the story of not just your state but the election. As goes Ohio so goes the nation!
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Maybe, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio is left behind by the rest of the nation. Many other states have grown more progressive at a faster rate. I think Ohio has been drawn to Trump more than other states. It's something to work on.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
maabus1999 said:
So the u.s. is saying Russia did the strike on the humanitarian Convoy in Syria and the u.s.follows with more details and proof Russia did it it will be very interesting if they ask Trump during the debates why he says nice things about Putin when basically Putin just committed a war crime
Click to expand...
Trump: "Well when you look at Putin's approval ratings, 83%,* party just got elected in a landslide,** can't argue with those results***"

*Political dissidents are imprisoned or killed
**Election that was obviously rigged
***Yes you can
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
A Link to the Past said:
And she's at one of her weaker moments in the election - probably the weakest she's been too (Trump's bump was about his "strength" rather than her weakness). I'll be very curious to see how North Dakota looks in October.
Click to expand...

North Dakota is elastic but super white and super rural, so I don't think there's a world in which she comes close to winning. Still, it's an interesting result that I wouldn't have expected probably because:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ing-counties-for-latinos-are-in-north-dakota/

imrs.php


Thanks, Bakken?
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
Gotta love how 538's model values the Ipsos daily polls more than the two proper national polls and two Florida specific polls released today. I really just need to stop looking at it.
Click to expand...

At this point I prefer looking at The Upshot because their snapshot of how all of the other prediction sites look is a good idea of the lay of the land. 538's predictions are way lower than the rest for whatever reason, and have been since like July.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Owzers said:
Well i don't know anything about that and the U.S. has done things too, they bombed Syrian soldiers who were attacking ISIS....

there's no way it doesn't go in that direction.
Click to expand...
That is completely not my point.
My point is Trump's fondness for putin not for every single mistake that happens in Syria plus there's a huge difference between hitting a mark humanitarian Convoy and a group of soldiers near the front lines of a multi front War
 
U

User 463088

Banned
embalm said:
I agree with you. I think Ohio is Trump's to lose.

I want to be wrong, but I see the racist tactics and promises of safety from immigrants working like some kind of mind control on relatives that live in the suburbs. It's kind of insane.
All of these people voted for Obama, but they say they want change. When I ask what kind of change they are looking for, they can't give me a straight answer. They just talk in circles.
My grandpa went on a rant about how race relations between "us" and "them" are at an all time low. It was a real shit conversation and caused me and my sister to leave our family gathering early.

Only a few members of this family have any college education, yet they have done well in their lives. They all are currently well employed, they have nice homes and new cars. They are living the american dream.

I also see two of my younger sisters who feel burned out by their Bernie support. Both who agree with EVERYTHING Hillary stands for, but do not support her. I almost feel bad for them. I got to be washed away by the hype that was Obama's elections. In the 8 years of Obama's presidency I learned to focus on issues and not just a candidates charisma, but it's obvious that many young people still have to learn this lesson.

Add these wishy-washy suburbanites, uninspired young voters, and the large rural parts of Ohio that have been motivated purely by the hate speech and it looks bleak.


I don't know Hillary can convince the Cincinnati suburbs to come out and vote for her. I hope she does though.
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Eh. A few issues with this. Obviously, I can't speak to your family, but just to the state as a whole. Trump has massive organizational problems in the state. So far as I know, he has no ground infrastructure at all in Cleveland. Like, literally nothing. He wasn't on the air in the Cuyahoga county market until a couple of weeks ago. While he's never, ever going to win this area, he absolutely needed to keep margins down. He didn't do that, and I don't see him doing at this stage either .

When you talk about Cincinnati suburbs, are you talking just about Hamilton county or Warren and Butler? Because, we don't win either of the latter. Hell, we lose them by 30-40 points, usually. While we do win Hamilton, it's not by insanely high margins. Trump's entire Hamilton county outreach is one volunteer person working out of their house.

The rural parts of Ohio will have similar GOP margins. I think Hillary fairs a bit better in some of them than Obama because she doesn't have the black, but she does have the vagina so maybe that's a wash?

Her path will be holding margins in Cuyahoga, Lucas, Loraine and Franklin. Because a lot of college educated voters are centered around these counties, plus their higher than average non-white populace, it's an easy enough path.

I think Ohio (and Iowa) are Trump's best chances at flipping a blue state red from 2012, but I don't think it's a particularly easy path for him.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
There's a predictit market on whether or not the first debate will eclipse 1980 in viewership. It might get 70m+ but I'm doubting it gets to 80m because of football.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
adam387 said:
When you talk about Cincinnati suburbs, are you talking just about Hamilton county or Warren and Butler? Because, we don't win either of the latter. Hell, we lose them by 30-40 points, usually.
Click to expand...

Warren/Butler/Clermont (the distant Cincinnati suburbs aka not Hamilton County) go (R) by like 25-39 points, so yeah. Obama never won them and never had a chance to, but won the state. Trump won't even need a ground operation there to take the counties by a large margin, though of course he needs every vote he can get to take the state.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Basileus777 said:
Voters haven't cared up to this point, why should the GOP believe that they will be punished for obstruction going forward? They're going to be looking forward and salivating at the idea of another red wave in 2018 and a vulnerable incumbent in 2020.
Click to expand...

Republican voters don't care, but not confirming a supreme court justice is a lot more visible to independents than the obstruction that Republican party is currently doing.

And again, its just stupid. If they do this, why would they expect democrats to nominate conservative judges when they have the presidency? Seems pretty stupid to continually tie themselves to a base that wants to obstruct the democrats at all costs but it dying, and will continue to make it more difficult for Republicans to win national elections.

Its in Republican short term interest to obstruct (which is why I wouldn't be shocked), but it certainly isn't in any sort of long-term interest, and that long-term interest might not even be that far away.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Some Trump supporters are insisting that "RCP is skewed" because battleground averages include poll that began before the 9/11 episode.

Are they onto something or is this just more right-wing rambling?
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Piecake said:
Republican voters don't care, but not confirming a supreme court justice is a lot more visible to independents than the obstruction that Republican party is currently doing.
Click to expand...
Yes and no one cares about Garland right now. It's been a minor issue as it has largely been forgotten about (like the government shutdown and everything else). The GOP has normalized obstruction.
And again, its just stupid. If they do this, why would they expect democrats to nominate conservative judges when they have the presidency? Seems pretty stupid to continually tie themselves to a base that wants to obstruct the democrats at all costs but it dying, and will continue to make it more difficult for Republicans to win national elections.

Its in Republican short term interest to obstruct (which is why I wouldn't be shocked), but it certainly isn't in any sort of long-term interest, and that long-term interest might not even be that far away.
Click to expand...
I don't see any reason to believe that the GOP will stop prioritizing its short-term interests.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I'm 95% sure Trump isn't a Russian spy, but he doesn't make it easy to believe so.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump already has a contentious relationship with Kiev, irking the Ukrainian public and government officials with his praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Moscow-friendly views on the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine.

Now, invited to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, Trump’s campaign didn’t even bother to send Kiev an RSVP.
Click to expand...

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/20...cold-shoulder-in-new-york-clinton-poroshenko/
 
I

Iolo

Member
Valhelm said:
Some Trump supporters are insisting that "RCP is skewed" because battleground averages include poll that began before the 9/11 episode.

Are they onto something or is this just more right-wing rambling?
Click to expand...

It depends. How many Pepes are they posting along with it?

0 <= Pepes <= 2 : Something's going on here
3 <= Pepes <= 5 : Many people are saying it
6 <= Pepes <= 9 : Believe me
10 <= Pepes : RIGGED
 
T

thefro

Member
HylianHistorian said:
Gonna love the debate thread. It'll be stupendous I'm sure.
Click to expand...

We're going to need a pretty robust effort to stuff online polls as to "who won?" since the alt-right idiots will be doing it. Don't want that to impact coverage.

I know Daily Kos usually does it, but they're going to need more numbers than that.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Basileus777 said:
Yes and no one cares about Garland right now. It's been a minor issue as it has largely been forgotten about (like the government shutdown and everything else). The GOP has normalized obstruction.
Click to expand...

The Republicans gave a 'seemingly plausible' explanation for that obstructionism though. They can't give one if they obstruct his nomination for 4 years simply because he is a left leaning moderate. Moreover, if they do obstruct they are contradicting their 'seemingly plausible' explanation.
 
S

studyguy

Member
thefro said:
We're going to need a pretty robust effort to stuff online polls as to "who won?" since the alt-right idiots will be doing it. Don't want that to impact coverage.

I know Daily Kos usually does it, but they're going to need more numbers than that.
Click to expand...

I'm not courting the Neogaf vote.
Frankly I don't care what people on message boards vote.
It's all moot here, I'm just along for the reactions.
 
E

embalm

Member
adam387 said:
Eh. A few issues with this. Obviously, I can't speak to your family, but just to the state as a whole. Trump has massive organizational problems in the state. So far as I know, he has no ground infrastructure at all in Cleveland. Like, literally nothing. He wasn't on the air in the Cuyahoga county market until a couple of weeks ago. While he's never, ever going to win this area, he absolutely needed to keep margins down. He didn't do that, and I don't see him doing at this stage either .

When you talk about Cincinnati suburbs, are you talking just about Hamilton county or Warren and Butler? Because, we don't win either of the latter. Hell, we lose them by 30-40 points, usually. While we do win Hamilton, it's not by insanely high margins. Trump's entire Hamilton county outreach is one volunteer person working out of their house.

The rural parts of Ohio will have similar GOP margins. I think Hillary fairs a bit better in some of them than Obama because she doesn't have the black, but she does have the vagina so maybe that's a wash?

Her path will be holding margins in Cuyahoga, Lucas, Loraine and Franklin. Because a lot of college educated voters are centered around these counties, plus their higher than average non-white populace, it's an easy enough path.

I think Ohio (and Iowa) are Trump's best chances at flipping a blue state red from 2012, but I don't think it's a particularly easy path for him.
Click to expand...
That specific family gathering was in Butler County. One of my Bernie or bust sisters is in Warren, the other is in Hamilton County.

I'm familiar with their outreach programs. Hillary's Walnut Hills office is less than a block away from my home, and it's obvious she has more of an established presence. I'm not sure how hard those programs effect Union and Suburb voters though.

I realize that what I'm seeing is totally anecdotal. It has just been a very eye opening few months as I watch some family jump to another part of the political spectrum. On top of that it's sad to see my sisters who went knocking on doors to get out the vote for Bernie feel lost when it comes to Hillary. It just doesn't make any damn sense. So I'm here here to rant.

Just for some feel good anecdotal evidence I should probably share this too. Two friends who are in their 30s and have never voted registered last month just to vote for Hillary.
 
U

User1608

Banned
thefro said:
We're going to need a pretty robust effort to stuff online polls as to "who won?" since the alt-right idiots will be doing it. Don't want that to impact coverage.

I know Daily Kos usually does it, but they're going to need more numbers than that.
Click to expand...
Eh, I don't think it'll be a big deal. Online polls are junk.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Valhelm said:
Some Trump supporters are insisting that "RCP is skewed" because battleground averages include poll that began before the 9/11 episode.

Are they onto something or is this just more right-wing rambling?
Click to expand...
Back in 2000 the editor ran a piece predicting GWB would win with over 450 electoral votes and the only way Gore could win is by rigging the electoral college.

tumblr_m3ey5zmYlz1r559kpo1_400.gif
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
thefro said:
We're going to need a pretty robust effort to stuff online polls as to "who won?" since the alt-right idiots will be doing it. Don't want that to impact coverage.

I know Daily Kos usually does it, but they're going to need more numbers than that.
Click to expand...
I think Twitter will be bigger than online polls this year. Twitter is where many reporters live all day, so they get to see narratives and reactions taking shape as events unfold. The Commander-in-Chief forum was really revelatory on this; by the end of the event, the negativity on Lauer and too much focus on Hillary's emails was already bubbling up to the surface.

So for folks at home, I'd say tweet. Be the squeaky wheel. Twitter leans left, and I'm glad we get to press this advantage.
 
S

studyguy

Member
HylianTom said:
So for folks at home, I'd say tweet. Be the squeaky wheel. Twitter leans left, and I'm glad we get to press this advantage.
Click to expand...

Twitter leans left during the day and late at night it becomes like The Purge where motherfuckers are out blasting whatever fucked up hashtags they can manage to get trending till morning. Like it's weird watching trends past midnight.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
All those real-time reactions and snap polls and hot takes immediately following debate don't mean shit anyway. Half the time the narrative reverses itself from debate night over the next few days.
 
S

Slayven

Member
studyguy said:
Twitter leans left during the day and late at night it becomes like The Purge where motherfuckers are out blasting whatever fucked up hashtags they can manage to get trending till morning. Like it's weird watching trends past midnight.
Click to expand...
That is so on point
 
M

Maledict

Member
HylianTom said:
I think Twitter will be bigger than online polls this year. Twitter is where many reporters live all day, so they get to see narratives and reactions taking shape as events unfold. The Commander-in-Chief forum was really revelatory on this; by the end of the event, the negativity on Lauer and too much focus on Hillary's emails was already bubbling up to the surface.

So for folks at home, I'd say tweet. Be the squeaky wheel. Twitter leans left, and I'm glad we get to press this advantage.
Click to expand...

According to Double Down twitter caught Obama's team completely by surprise after the first debate. They thought he'd lost 60-40, but the instant reactions on twitter created an amplified storm that made the result far worse. By the time of the second debate they had a social media team in place ready to tweet constantly, which is why we got such insanely fast reactions on 'binders full of women' and 'please proceed'.

Twitter might be flatlining in the real world, but it's really powerful at controlling journalists narrative and 'mood music'.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Maledict said:
According to Double Down twitter caught Obama's team completely by surprise after the first debate. They thought he'd lost 60-40, but the instant reactions on twitter created an amplified storm that made the result far worse. By the time of the second debate they had a social media team in place ready to tweet constantly, which is why we got such insanely fast reactions on 'binders full of women' and 'please proceed'.

Twitter might be flatlining in the real world, but it's really powerful at controlling journalists narrative and 'mood music'.
Click to expand...

And you're definitely going to see something similar straight from Hillary's twitter account.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Maledict said:
According to Double Down twitter caught Obama's team completely by surprise after the first debate. They thought he'd lost 60-40, but the instant reactions on twitter created an amplified storm that made the result far worse. By the time of the second debate they had a social media team in place ready to tweet constantly, which is why we got such insanely fast reactions on 'binders full of women' and 'please proceed'.

Twitter might be flatlining in the real world, but it's really powerful at controlling journalists narrative and 'mood music'.
Click to expand...
Man this brings back so many memories. I was so, so excited for the Bams Romney debate. I was certain that Mittens was going to get his android parts pulled out in slo mo, and devoured by Obama. I ordered Pizza and everything.

I was so depressed that night.
 
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