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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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T

thebloo

Member
Valhelm said:
As soon as the GOP runs a candidate who can actually appeal to Hispanic voters, we're doomed

It wouldn't even be that difficult -- just stop trying to slash social services and end the flagrant prejudice against Latinos
Click to expand...

If they keep spouting bullshit for 4 years while Dems pass something related to immigration, it'll be hard.
 
H

Holmes

Member
HylianTom said:
North Carolina was called for Romney at 954PM, with Romney winning 50-48.

I'd love to see the East Coast set the mood early this year.
Click to expand...
Virginia being called early in the night would be good. In 2012 it was called after midnight. The most Democratic areas are always slow and last to report, but if Clinton/Kaine do good in the NoVA exurbs, Richmond burbs (Chesterfield, Henrico) and the Virginia Beach area (Virginia Beach and Chesapeake Cities), it could be called much earlier.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
balladofwindfishes said:
What you listed isn't easy. That's a pretty dramatic adjustment of the party. Made even harder by how many of them are supporting Trump this time around.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if it's too dramatic, especially if the Democrats have moved noticeably to the left by 2020/2024.

Won't demographic change also weaken or potentially destroy the GOP's grasp on the House, particularly in Western districts?

mo60 said:
Well the three republicians including cruz that could appeal to hispanics got crushed by trump
Click to expand...

Rubio and especially Cruz didn't have much Hispanic appeal. While Hispanic voters are somewhat more likely to pick someone with a Spanish name, economic is overwhelmingly what drives the Latino vote. The biggest issues for polled voters are employment, education, and healthcare. A Republican who doesn't touch public school funding or Obamacare will do really well, even without liberal attitudes toward immigration.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Cs0JA45W8AAZqfc.jpg:large
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Valhelm said:
As soon as the GOP runs a candidate who can actually appeal to Hispanic voters, we're doomed

It wouldn't even be that difficult -- just stop trying to slash social services and end the flagrant prejudice against Latinos
Click to expand...
The GOP ran this guy in 2000 and 2004 and he lost the popular vote the first time and had the narrowest reelection margins for a wartime president the second.

It's not like they can just magically get the Latino vote the same way the Democrats have it and it's not like a large amount of their support doesn't come from people who are voting for them for the same reason they don't appeal to Latinos.

I think the GOP will have some sort of Dukakis-type next election that will try to be different but it's not like it will end competition forever.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
The most disgusting thing that has happened election cycle so far is the media takedown of extremely well respected charity that has saved millions of lives and yet only one WA Po reporter decided they ought to actually be fair and also investigate the Trump Foundation which has turned out to seemingly be another huge fraud.

And there has been so much fraud uncovered that the media has basically forgotten that Trump defrauded people of their savings with his horrible "university"
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
embalm said:
I don't think Ohio demographics agree with this. This is my theory on why Ohio will be hard to win.

Ohio has a larger white population than most other swing states. It's like 83% white non-Hispanic. We haven't had any large immigration, so our Hispanic population is smaller than other swing states by a large margin. You're right that we need the black community to go out and vote to win, but Ohio needs more than just them because of it's heavy white population.

We need the Union to vote blue again. Right now they are caught up in the hate speech and voting against who their union supports.

We need college students to vote blue. Right now they feel robbed of their political hero. There is no easy way to fix that.

We need independents to vote blue. Right now they don't trust Hillary because all of the news makes her look as bad as Trump. In reality Hillary is has been falsely accused, but no news site will come out and say it, leaving the stigma hanging over her.


Those three cross sections of white voters need to come home and vote if Ohio is going blue. As of right now, they might not.
Click to expand...


I think a decent percentage of white women that lean R will either not vote or vote Clinton. I believe the usually reliable social conservative vote will be depressed.

There's always one reason or another why whatever voting bloc of white males aren't happy with the Democratic candidate. I look at that as a constant. Nothing special this time around. I'm not even convinced that working class white males are going more for Trump than they did Romney- I'm seeing movement towards Clinton, anecdotally.
 
S

Slurpy2k20

Member
metalslimer said:
The most disgusting thing that has happened election cycle so far is the media takedown of extremely well respected charity that has saved millions of lives and yet only one WA Po reporter decided they ought to actually be fair and also investigate the Trump Foundation which has turned out to seemingly be another huge fraud.

And there has been so much fraud uncovered that the media has basically forgotten that Trump defrauded people of their savings with his horrible "university"
Click to expand...

No kidding. Blows my mind how Trumps charities are only being looked into NOW.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
So are polls looking any better this week? Is it too early to say? Doesn't seem like any of the prediction sites have changed at all in the past couple days.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
thebloo said:
If they keep spouting bullshit for 4 years while Dems pass something related to immigration, it'll be hard.
Click to expand...

Here's the thing about immigration -- white people care a lot more than Hispanics do. Voters of Hispanic origin are already living in the US, and as citizens they can pretty easily bring over any close relatives. Some California Mexican Americans I spoke to at my old job (a Hispanic-focused research firm) had a negative view of illegal immigrants, due to fears of their pay being undercut by newcomers or prejudice against the Central American (rather than Mexican) origins of most current migrants.

Bonen no Max'd said:
The GOP ran this guy in 2000 and 2004 and he lost the popular vote the first time and had the narrowest reelection margins for a wartime president the second.

It's not like they can just magically get the Latino vote the same way the Democrats have it and it's not like a large amount of their support doesn't come from people who are voting for them for the same reason they don't appeal to Latinos.

I think the GOP will have some sort of Dukakis-type next election that will try to be different but it's not like it will end competition forever.
Click to expand...

George W. Bush did amazing with Hispanic voters, coming close to 50% of that electorate in 2004. Had a more competent candidate (Romney) had those margins, they certainly might have won.
 
K

kess

Member
Someday, Automotive Discussion-GAF and and Automation-GAF are going to collide and create a black hole. Only Trump can save us now.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Piecake said:
If they don't, they have pretty much ensured that no Republican president will be able to nominate a conservative judge if the democrats hold the Senate.

While I wouldn't be shocked if they did block Clinton's appointments, it would be very very stupid because all it is is doubling down on the losing old white man fuck government strategy, and going against what they claimed was their objection under Obama. It won't look good for anyone besides their shrinking base, and some of those swing voters will care about actual functional government.
Click to expand...

Voters haven't cared up to this point, why should the GOP believe that they will be punished for obstruction going forward? They're going to be looking forward and salivating at the idea of another red wave in 2018 and a vulnerable incumbent in 2020.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Suikoguy said:
So this appears to be the origin of the Hitler Jr. Tweet?

http://research.calvin.edu/german-propaganda-archive/story2.htm
Click to expand...

giphy.gif


Aaron Strife said:
New Blunt ad tries to turn the tables on Kander's gun ad.

https://youtu.be/phq4G799GPo

Seems really weak to me, actually. Highlights Kander's original ad and takes fifteen seconds to actually get a dig in on him. They're losing the plot and don't know what to do.
Click to expand...

Why in the hell would Blunt choose to make this election a referendum on who can assemble a gun faster?

The response add to this one should have Kander putting it together as quick as possible (you just know he can) and then whipping off the blindfold and saying "Hmm, looks like we have some time left let's talk about Roy Blunt's record".
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Wilsongt said:
He knows he's gone do he is spewing shit while he can.
Click to expand...

He's still trying to win re-election instead of contain the damage to the rest of the statewide party. That makes sense given that the GOP-held state general ASSembly are the ones that tanked his re-election bid. They served up shit sandwich after shit sandwich to his office and did nothing to help reinforce his pro-growth, socially moderate vibe that he had when he entered office in 2012.
 
N

Nafai1123

Banned
thebloo said:
550%!!!

I just love when actual numbers are underwhelming so you have to pull the percentages.
Click to expand...

Some dude was on CNN earlier today actually doing the math in regards to the Skittles tweet and found that 1 in 3.6 billion Skittles are poisoned. So for 3 Skittles to be poisoned, you would need a bowl with more Skittles than the world population.
 
K

kess

Member
I mean, is this surprising? The right is already complaining about the Ad Council running a "Refugees are People" campaign.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Dems probably win the Senate.

If they don't, Republicans will not let Hillary make any Supreme Court appointments and she will accomplish very little in domestic policy.
Click to expand...
I could see 7 justices being the new normal. Get all of the Republicans in your life on record right now about how they'll feel about a Republican Senate denying Hillary a Supreme Court appointment. You can use what they say against them when they fall in step if this comes to pass.
 
D

Diablos

Member
embalm said:
I don't think Ohio demographics agree with this. This is my theory on why Ohio will be hard to win.

Ohio has a larger white population than most other swing states. It's like 83% white non-Hispanic. We haven't had any large immigration, so our Hispanic population is smaller than other swing states by a large margin. You're right that we need the black community to go out and vote to win, but Ohio needs more than just them because of it's heavy white population.

We need the Union to vote blue again. Right now they are caught up in the hate speech and voting against who their union supports.

We need college students to vote blue. Right now they feel robbed of their political hero. There is no easy way to fix that.

We need independents to vote blue. Right now they don't trust Hillary because all of the news makes her look as bad as Trump. In reality Hillary is has been falsely accused, but no news site will come out and say it, leaving the stigma hanging over her.


Those three cross sections of white voters need to come home and vote if Ohio is going blue. As of right now, they might not.
Click to expand...
The funny thing is this could be the story of not just your state but the election. As goes Ohio so goes the nation!
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
thebloo said:
550%!!!

I just love when actual numbers are underwhelming so you have to pull the percentages.
Click to expand...

Clinton is planning on increasing the number of refugees from 2 to ELEVEN. And every one of them will be carrying a bowl of Skittles. That's like a thousand Skittles. And they're going to offer them to you. And you don't want to refuse, because what if they think you're racist... but seriously, who over the age of 10 eats Skittles? Now look at you; surrounded by refugees feeding you inferior candy. WAKE UP.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
So the u.s. is saying Russia did the strike on the humanitarian Convoy in Syria and the u.s.follows with more details and proof Russia did it it will be very interesting if they ask Trump during the debates why he says nice things about Putin when basically Putin just committed a war crime
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Gotta love how 538's model values the Ipsos daily polls more than the two proper national polls and two Florida specific polls released today. I really just need to stop looking at it.
 
A

A Link to the Past

Banned
whyamihere said:
There's value in polling under-polled states for a myriad of reasons.

North Dakota is extremely white and Obama lost is by 20. Yet here, Hillary is losing it *only* by 11. That's interesting.
Click to expand...

And she's at one of her weaker moments in the election - probably the weakest she's been too (Trump's bump was about his "strength" rather than her weakness). I'll be very curious to see how North Dakota looks in October.
 
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