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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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F

Fragamemnon

Member
The challenge for Burr was to put Ross in the dumpster before she was defined. That didn't happen, and now the GOP gets to watch and basically pray that she doesn't do to Burr what Hagan did to Dole back in 2008, where Hagan got ahead and more or less had the election wrapped up a week before early voting ended.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Alright, calling it now - Burr is gonna blow it.
Click to expand...

Fragamemnon said:
The challenge for Burr was to put Ross in the dumpster before she was defined. That didn't happen, and now the GOP gets to watch and basically pray that she doesn't do to Burr what Hagan did to Dole back in 2008, where Hagan got ahead and more or less had the election wrapped up a week before early voting ended.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm starting to get the sense that Burr could blow it because of the Dems superior ground game and Ross's fundraising. Wow.

I was like, joking about Deborah Ross winning this whole year, but I actually think she could do it.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Hard-line House members are refusing to pay 'dues' to the party committee in the midst of a rough campaign season.

House Republicans already struggling to protect their historic majority this fall are confronting a multimillion-dollar shortfall in their campaign budget — driven partly by Freedom Caucus members and other hard-line conservatives who are boycotting the GOP’s campaign arm.

A bloc of conservatives is refusing to transfer cash to the National Republican Congressional Committee, convinced the committee is favoring moderate candidates over hard-line conservatives. Dozens of other Republican lawmakers also haven’t paid their expected party “dues,” including several in tough primaries or general election races who figure they need the money for themselves.

Several GOP sources told Politico that 3 in 10 members of the House Republican Conference are delinquent on their dues. And multiple senior Republicans said the shortfall exceeds $10 million.
Click to expand...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/house-freedom-caucus-republican-donors-228380

Beautiful.

These freedom Caucus candidates are usually in very very safe seats. If they aren't transferring money to NRCC. then the NRCC can't transfer that money to more competitive races where the money is needed.

It is looking like these Freedom Caucus republicans think they need to keep the cash that they make to protect themselves against establishment republican attack in the primaries after what happened to Tim Huskelcamp of Kansas.
 
C

ctothej

Member
So what are the Democrats' chances of retaking the senate at the moment? If we don't get the senate, is Clinton basically screwed when it comes to the supreme court?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
ctothej said:
So what are the Democrats' chances of retaking the senate at the moment? If we don't get the senate, is Clinton basically screwed when it comes to the supreme court?
Click to expand...

Dems probably win the Senate.

If they don't, Republicans will not let Hillary make any Supreme Court appointments and she will accomplish very little in domestic policy.
 
E

embalm

Member
Plinko said:
I think Ohio is going to be handily won by Trump this time around.
Click to expand...
I agree with you. I think Ohio is Trump's to lose.

I want to be wrong, but I see the racist tactics and promises of safety from immigrants working like some kind of mind control on relatives that live in the suburbs. It's kind of insane.
All of these people voted for Obama, but they say they want change. When I ask what kind of change they are looking for, they can't give me a straight answer. They just talk in circles.
My grandpa went on a rant about how race relations between "us" and "them" are at an all time low. It was a real shit conversation and caused me and my sister to leave our family gathering early.

Only a few members of this family have any college education, yet they have done well in their lives. They all are currently well employed, they have nice homes and new cars. They are living the american dream.

I also see two of my younger sisters who feel burned out by their Bernie support. Both who agree with EVERYTHING Hillary stands for, but do not support her. I almost feel bad for them. I got to be washed away by the hype that was Obama's elections. In the 8 years of Obama's presidency I learned to focus on issues and not just a candidates charisma, but it's obvious that many young people still have to learn this lesson.

Add these wishy-washy suburbanites, uninspired young voters, and the large rural parts of Ohio that have been motivated purely by the hate speech and it looks bleak.


I don't know Hillary can convince the Cincinnati suburbs to come out and vote for her. I hope she does though.
 
P

Piecake

Member
embalm said:
I agree with you. I think Ohio is Trump's to lose.

I want to be wrong, but I see the racist tactics and promises of safety from immigrants working like some kind of mind control on relatives that live in the suburbs. It's kind of insane.
All of these people voted for Obama, but they say they want change. When I ask what kind of change they are looking for, they can't give me a straight answer. They just talk in circles.
My grandpa went on a rant about how race relations between "us" and "them" are at an all time low. It was a real shit conversation and caused me and my sister to leave our family gathering early.

Only a few members of this family have any college education, yet they have done well in their lives. They all are currently well employed, they have nice homes and new cars. They are living the american dream.

I also see two of my younger sisters who feel burned out by their Bernie support. Both who agree with EVERYTHING Hillary stands for, but do not support her. I almost feel bad for them. I got to be washed away by the hype that was Obama's elections. In the 8 years of Obama's presidency I learned to focus on issues and not just a candidates charisma, but it's obvious that many young people still have to learn this lesson.

Add these wishy-washy suburbanites, uninspired young voters, and the large rural parts of Ohio that have been motivated purely by the hate speech and it looks bleak.


I don't know Hillary can convince the Cincinnati suburbs to come out and vote for her. I hope she does though.
Click to expand...

Lebron needs to start campaigning for Clinton
 
H

Holmes

Member
whyamihere said:
Yeah, I'm starting to get the sense that Burr could blow it because of the Dems superior ground game and Ross's fundraising. Wow.

I was like, joking about Deborah Ross winning this whole year, but I actually think she could do it.
Click to expand...
Joking? Was I the only true believer?
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
embalm said:
I agree with you. I think Ohio is Trump's to lose.

I want to be wrong, but I see the racist tactics and promises of safety from immigrants working like some kind of mind control on relatives that live in the suburbs. It's kind of insane.
All of these people voted for Obama, but they say they want change. When I ask what kind of change they are looking for, they can't give me a straight answer. They just talk in circles.
My grandpa went on a rant about how race relations between "us" and "them" are at an all time low. It was a real shit conversation and caused me and my sister to leave our family gathering early.

Only a few members of this family have any college education, yet they have done well in their lives. They all are currently well employed, they have nice homes and new cars. They are living the american dream.

I also see two of my younger sisters who feel burned out by their Bernie support. Both who agree with EVERYTHING Hillary stands for, but do not support her. I almost feel bad for them. I got to be washed away by the hype that was Obama's elections. In the 8 years of Obama's presidency I learned to focus on issues and not just a candidates charisma, but it's obvious that many young people still have to learn this lesson.

Add these wishy-washy suburbanites, uninspired young voters, and the large rural parts of Ohio that have been motivated purely by the hate speech and it looks bleak.


I don't know Hillary can convince the Cincinnati suburbs to come out and vote for her. I hope she does though.
Click to expand...

I agree, I have lots of friends that fall in the areas in the more rural parts of akron and canton, and there are a lot of people I know that voted for Obama but wont vote for Hillary. A lot of it is sexisism (although they probably wont even admit it to themselves) but its definitely there.
 
N

nomster

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Dems probably win the Senate.

If they don't, Republicans will not let Hillary make any Supreme Court appointments and she will accomplish very little in domestic policy.
Click to expand...
This would be unprecedented even among the extremely obstructionist senate we've had for 6 years. They won't block everyone she puts up.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
embalm said:
I agree with you. I think Ohio is Trump's to lose.

I want to be wrong, but I see the racist tactics and promises of safety from immigrants working like some kind of mind control on relatives that live in the suburbs. It's kind of insane.
All of these people voted for Obama, but they say they want change. When I ask what kind of change they are looking for, they can't give me a straight answer. They just talk in circles.
My grandpa went on a rant about how race relations between "us" and "them" are at an all time low. It was a real shit conversation and caused me and my sister to leave our family gathering early.

Only a few members of this family have any college education, yet they have done well in their lives. They all are currently well employed, they have nice homes and new cars. They are living the american dream.

I also see two of my younger sisters who feel burned out by their Bernie support. Both who agree with EVERYTHING Hillary stands for, but do not support her. I almost feel bad for them. I got to be washed away by the hype that was Obama's elections. In the 8 years of Obama's presidency I learned to focus on issues and not just a candidates charisma, but it's obvious that many young people still have to learn this lesson.

Add these wishy-washy suburbanites, uninspired young voters, and the large rural parts of Ohio that have been motivated purely by the hate speech and it looks bleak.


I don't know Hillary can convince the Cincinnati suburbs to come out and vote for her. I hope she does though.
Click to expand...

Clinton can lose that voting bloc worse than Obama did and still be fine. I believe the depressed turnout of social conservatives will counteract that loss, anyways. Black women are going to win it for Clinton.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
thefro said:
Lesser Nate released his Senate forecast today
Click to expand...
Saw this randomly pop up when I was checking the model. Neat, and he seems to like Democrats' chances.

nature boy said:
Saint Leo poll: National, Florida and Florida Senate

Note: Saint Leo had Clinton +14 in Florida in their previous poll.
Click to expand...
Hm, Clinton up 6 in another Florida poll from a reliable outfit? Must be a 1-2 point race.

Again, bringing up an August poll where she enjoyed a very large convention bounce is irrelevant.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
nature boy said:
Saint Leo poll: National, Florida and Florida Senate

Note: Saint Leo had Clinton +14 in Florida in their previous poll.
Click to expand...

So approximately...

National:
- Clinton +5/6 depending on rounding.

Florida
- Clinton +5

Senate:
- Rubio +9/10 depending on rounding

I've noticed this poll has a really high margin of error... their previous Florida poll was also a MASSIVE outlier. Don't know what to make of this. I think I'll just use it as another indicator that despite last week Florida is still leaning blue.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Saw this randomly pop up when I was checking the model. Neat, and he seems to like Democrats' chances.


Hm, Clinton up 6 in another Florida poll from a reliable outfit? Must be a 1-2 point race.

Again, bringing up an August poll where she enjoyed a very large convention bounce is irrelevant.
Click to expand...
Nitpicking your data eh?

It also shows Rubio up 9.
 
P

Piecake

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Everything the GOP has done since 2010 has been unprecedented, they'll keep pushing new boundaries.
Click to expand...

If they don't, they have pretty much ensured that no Republican president will be able to nominate a conservative judge if the democrats hold the Senate.

While I wouldn't be shocked if they did block Clinton's appointments, it would be very very stupid because all it is is doubling down on the losing old white man fuck government strategy, and going against what they claimed was their objection under Obama. It won't look good for anyone besides their shrinking base, and some of those swing voters will care about actual functional government.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Cesare Borgia said:
Check the SEC reports. He's blatantly using campaign money to purchase his own products, host his staff in Trump hotels, etc. He's also paying large amounts of money to consultants who don't exist - either family or business associates with no consulting history.
Click to expand...

Are we completely sure Trump isn't just hustling the GOP?

Monmouth poll looks good if even with a smaller sample size. If the election happened now I'd assume Ohio and Iowa go to Trump, with MI and WI being way closer than anyone expected - I think there will be a slight shift as the Midwest and the Southwest turn into battleground areas moreso - the Midwest trending slightly red while the Southwest starts to trend blue.

I don't like that the debates are going to matter so much, but I think they will, so I would demur on any predictions until after the 2nd debate, IMO.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Cybit said:
Are we completely sure Trump isn't just hustling the GOP?

Monmouth poll looks good if even with a smaller sample size. If the election happened now I'd assume Ohio and Iowa go to Trump, with MI and WI being way closer than anyone expected - I think there will be a slight shift as the Midwest and the Southwest turn into battleground areas moreso - the Midwest trending slightly red while the Southwest starts to trend blue.

I don't like that the debates are going to matter so much, but I think they will, so I would demur on any predictions until after the 2nd debate, IMO.
Click to expand...

The key to a GOP win in 2020 is staving off the inevitable AZ and GA turns into swing states by winning WI and MI.

Y4reASv.png
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
North Carolina was called for Romney at 954PM, with Romney winning 50-48.

I'd love to see the East Coast set the mood early this year.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
As soon as the GOP runs a candidate who can actually appeal to Hispanic voters, we're doomed

It wouldn't even be that difficult -- just stop trying to slash social services and end the flagrant prejudice against Latinos
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
embalm said:
I agree with you. I think Ohio is Trump's to lose.

I want to be wrong, but I see the racist tactics and promises of safety from immigrants working like some kind of mind control on relatives that live in the suburbs. It's kind of insane.
All of these people voted for Obama, but they say they want change. When I ask what kind of change they are looking for, they can't give me a straight answer. They just talk in circles.
My grandpa went on a rant about how race relations between "us" and "them" are at an all time low. It was a real shit conversation and caused me and my sister to leave our family gathering early.

Only a few members of this family have any college education, yet they have done well in their lives. They all are currently well employed, they have nice homes and new cars. They are living the american dream.

I also see two of my younger sisters who feel burned out by their Bernie support. Both who agree with EVERYTHING Hillary stands for, but do not support her. I almost feel bad for them. I got to be washed away by the hype that was Obama's elections. In the 8 years of Obama's presidency I learned to focus on issues and not just a candidates charisma, but it's obvious that many young people still have to learn this lesson.

Add these wishy-washy suburbanites, uninspired young voters, and the large rural parts of Ohio that have been motivated purely by the hate speech and it looks bleak.


I don't know Hillary can convince the Cincinnati suburbs to come out and vote for her. I hope she does though.
Click to expand...

My remaining Ohio cousins have always been Republicans, so their votes haven't changed. However, it is a little disturbing to see them evolve into racialized Breitbart conservatives. My dad visited some of them recently and they proudly showed off their his and hers Bushmasters, something they said they needed in case of home invasion. These otherwise kindly grandparents live in a sleepy town 20 miles outside of Akron -- not exactly a high-risk area for home invasions. The NRA and Fox have really stoked their paranoia.
 
E

embalm

Member
Wolfgunblood Garopa said:
Clinton can lose that voting bloc worse than Obama did and still be fine. I believe the depressed turnout of social conservatives will counteract that loss, anyways. Black women are going to win it for Clinton.
Click to expand...
I don't think Ohio demographics agree with this. This is my theory on why Ohio will be hard to win.

Ohio has a larger white population than most other swing states. It's like 83% white non-Hispanic. We haven't had any large immigration, so our Hispanic population is smaller than other swing states by a large margin. You're right that we need the black community to go out and vote to win, but Ohio needs more than just them because of it's heavy white population.

We need the Union to vote blue again. Right now they are caught up in the hate speech and voting against who their union supports.

We need college students to vote blue. Right now they feel robbed of their political hero. There is no easy way to fix that.

We need independents to vote blue. Right now they don't trust Hillary because all of the news makes her look as bad as Trump. In reality Hillary is has been falsely accused, but no news site will come out and say it, leaving the stigma hanging over her.


Those three cross sections of white voters need to come home and vote if Ohio is going blue. As of right now, they might not.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Valhelm said:
As soon as the GOP runs a candidate who can actually appeal to Hispanic voters, we're doomed

It wouldn't even be that difficult -- just stop trying to slash social services and end the flagrant prejudice against Latinos
Click to expand...

What you listed isn't easy. That's a pretty dramatic adjustment of the party. Made even harder by how many of them are supporting Trump this time around.
 
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