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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Cybit

FGC Waterboy
No, you can determine a winner under some circumstances.

If the election is about the same as 4 years ago, then Silver's model was wrong in some way. Because you'd have to explain why, with similar polling data as 4 years ago, his model gives Trump's chances a lot higher now than Romney's peak.

Not really; because that assumes ending the same place means they took the same path to that place.

So, lets say...wikileaks drops a bunch of emails that make Clinton look terrible about three weeks from the election. Clinton's numbers drop, Trump's chances shoot up. But then Trump gets indicted for Trump Foundation stuff about a week before the election, and his numbers drop and it ends up reasonably close polling wise. Election happens, Clinton beats Trump by Romney-esque margins.

That doesn't make Wang's model better, it makes Wang's model luckier.

Which is the crux of their argument - Wang treats elections like a statistics 400 class in terms of modeling, simple regressions and simple probability curves based on polls, and nothing else matters / everything else will be seen in every state poll equally. Silver's assuming a system based model where factors changing polls are also balanced against the possibilities of skewed polls (since an individual pollster is more likely to be precise rather than accurate).

Wang's treating elections like baseball analytics, Silver is treating it more like football analytics (in a not that good example, but it's the one that comes to mind)

That said - the sniping between all of them is a little ridiculous. Feels like I'm watching the same stuff that happened with PFF/FO and Stats professors a couple of years ago, or sabermetrics folks before them.
 

Emarv

Member
We definitely just need Silver, Cohn and Wang to sit down and do a podcast on this. They're competitors when it comes to clicks, but I think it's important for us to get real critiques of each other methods. Not just snipes on twitter.

Also, Cohn needs to do more podcasts so we can hear if he's actually secretly very smug like Silver, very smart like Wang or a very ridiculous human being like Enten.

I need more for my pollster fanfiction.
 
Not really; because that assumes ending the same place means they took the same path to that place.

So, lets say...wikileaks drops a bunch of emails that make Clinton look terrible about three weeks from the election. Clinton's numbers drop, Trump's chances shoot up. But then Trump gets indicted for Trump Foundation stuff about a week before the election, and his numbers drop and it ends up reasonably close polling wise. Election happens, Clinton beats Trump by Romney-esque margins.

That doesn't make Wang's model better, it makes Wang's model luckier.

Again, I already added the caveat that there isn't some major shift due to some event.


Actually, I think Silver's model has already proven insufficient because of its volatility.

There's no use in a model that moves as much as his has shown. Imagine a climate change model that changes in the same way!

The whole point of a forecasting model is to be largely stable. Silver even knows this because every convention he tells us his model is designed to not overreact to convention bounces!

Silver's model is proving itself not to be a forecast but rather a present-cast. And there's nothing wrong with a present-cast if its presented as one!

Which is the crux of their argument - Wang treats elections like a statistics 400 class in terms of modeling, simple regressions and simple probability curves based on polls, and nothing else matters / everything else will be seen in every state poll equally. Silver's assuming a system based model where factors changing polls are also balanced against the possibilities of skewed polls (since an individual pollster is more likely to be precise rather than accurate).

Wang's treating elections like baseball analytics, Silver is treating it more like football analytics (in a not that good example, but it's the one that comes to mind)

That said - the sniping between all of them is a little ridiculous. Feels like I'm watching the same stuff that happened with PFF/FO and Stats professors a couple of years ago, or sabermetrics folks before them.


But Wang isn't attacking Silver because his model uses other inputs or is more complex. If that were true, he'd attack other models as well (he's not). Not to mention, Wang needs other models to compare to his own to see if a model with more than polling inputs is better. But Silver's model is failing this election to be a comparison because it's just moving too much. It's a useless forecasting model.

Wang is attacking Silver for not understanding certain things, not so much for being a competitor. I think Wang is basically begging Silver to adjust the inputs in his model to make more statistical sense so he has something good to compare.
 
This is not really a comment about his work, but Silver has always come across as thin-skinned and petty to me. I mean, this reaction to Krugman's perfectly valid criticism of the 538 launch was just flat-out embarrassing. Even going back before that, he tended to get in social media fights and react in a passive-aggressive fashion to any and all criticism.

Haha it's funny to see him calling Krugman out for punditry considering what his website became at ESPN
 

Iolo

Member
Yeah. If it really is a tight race, then 538's model should stay near 50-50 until the end, maybe varying by 10 points. A forecast claiming 85-90% in August is useless if it says 50% now—except for fun.

Also remember when Nate said whoever was leading in the polls around Labor Day would almost certainly win? That line of argument has gone out the window.
 

Effect

Member
I really hate that the expectations for Trump so low. It shouldn't be. He's suppose to be running for the presidency. There should be a level everyone is held to at a minimum no matter who you are. He should not get a pass if he shows up and doesn't end up shouting racist slurs.
 

Boke1879

Member
I really hate that the expectations for Trump so low. It shouldn't be. He's suppose to be running for the presidency. There should be a level everyone is held to at a minimum no matter who you are. He should not get a pass if he shows up and doesn't end up shouting racist slurs.

At this point one can only hope the media holds him to task
 

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Is NH really that important in 2016?

kPJE9uh.png
 
I mean is it a poll aggregator or is it a forecast of the probability of a binary outcome in November. If it's the latter then why does it move so much so frequently and seem as sensitive and volatile now as months ago. I'm not a statistician but I guess neither is Trash Nate.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I still have faith Hillary pulls off Florida.

Same here.

In fact, right now I think polling underrepresents Spanish-speaking voters (and GOTV disparity), and she ends-up winning Florida and Nevada. Ohio - I'm not sure. Iowa - I'm losing hope.

New Hampshire is damn important this year. And thankfully, we should get a call on it early in the evening.
 
Same here.

In fact, right now I think polling underrepresents Spanish-speaking voters (and GOTV disparity), and she ends-up winning Florida and Nevada. Ohio - I'm not sure. Iowa - I'm losing hope.

New Hampshire is damn important this year. And thankfully, we should get a call on it early in the evening.


Yeah, of those 4, Iowa is the most in danger.

I view Nevada as the biggest lock demographically. Mormons really, really hate Trump. Just a hard state to poll.
 
Sad thing is, Clinton ignored Iowa (relatively speaking) in 2008 as well. >_< She got some buckeye fans or something she's angry against? :D

As for Silver vs Wang argument 10000; you're probably not going to be able to find a winner regardless after the election - considering almost all sites have had Clinton above 50% to win the entire time in their forecast, you can't exactly claim victory. If Trump shits the bed or Clinton shits the bed in the debate and causes a massive swing, everyone's forecasts will shift appropriately before the election to show said massive swing.
You need to apologize for this.. I feel offended you're implying that I'm from Iowa.
 
I met Wang, and would like to say that neuroscience at the level he does (and especially the princeton program) delves into very heavy statistics and theoretical modeling (plus all human behavior is the result of the brain :p ).

He talked about his model as a hobby for him when hes not pushing the boundaries of neuroscience. Unfortunately I turned him down.
 

Iolo

Member
Man it'll be the worst when Hillary gets a DNC like bump from the debate, then it settles back down to a tie by November 8.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Iowa is going to go for Hillary. Stop paying attention to these polls right now. Once all of the debates are done and Obama/Biden barnstorm IA etc things will change. Trump nor Hillary are hitting 50% in these polls. There is still time for IA and OH etc to bounce back.
 

Crisco

Banned
Cs9GhI8WEAE2Pxo.jpg:large


Trump: "Hillary wants to take your guns away."

Trump: "I'm literally going to take your guns away."

This election, man.
 

Boke1879

Member
Man it'll be the worst when Hillary gets a DNC like bump from the debate, then it settles back down to a tie by November 8.

Thankfully there are 3 debates and I think she'll do very well in the townhall and foreign policy ones. And I suspect Kaine will do well in the VP debate. Pence to me an empty suit. A typical republican with no charisma and can't even defend his positions well.

After all that everything should be in line. Not to mention all in october the ads will be ridiculous. Obama will be campaigning hard. Make Kaine give interviews to places like Univision and have Biden camp out in places like Iowa and Ohio.
 

Boke1879

Member
Cs9GhI8WEAE2Pxo.jpg:large


Trump: "Hillary wants to take your guns away."

Trump: "I'm literally going to take your guns away."

This election, man.

Yes. The police just "know" who has a gun right Donald. This shit is racial profiling dressed up and it's still not appealing.

This is one thing I hope comes up at the debate on Monday and I think it will.
 

Crisco

Banned
I feel like Hillary should cut an ad that just loops Trump saying "take the gun away" over and over and over again and just fade to black. Spam that shit all over southern states.
 
AP/Gf

National LV

9/15-9/19

Hillary: 41
Trump: 35
Johnson: 7
Wifi: 2
Lolol
It was supposed to be her "47 percent" moment.

When Hillary Clinton said that half of Donald Trump's supporters belonged in a "basket of deplorables," Republicans thought they just might have found her campaign-crushing-blunder.

The gaffe, they hoped, was a way to cement an image as an out-of-touch snob, just as Democrats did four years ago to Mitt Romney after he said "47 percent" of voters backed President Barack Obama because they were "dependent on government."

But a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that Clinton's stumble didn't have quite the impact that Trump and his supporters wanted. Instead, it's Trump who's viewed as most disconnected and disrespectful.

Sixty percent of registered voters say he does not respect "ordinary Americans," according to the poll. That's far more than the 48 percent who say the same about Clinton.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/deplorable-trump-clinton-ap-gfk-poll-finds-42290211
 

Kangi

Member
The NC Republican state party is absolutely repulsive. Hopefully, just repulsive enough for the Dems to sweep it this November.
 
AP/Gf

National LV

9/15-9/19

Hillary: 45
Trump: 39
Johnson: 9
Wifi: 2

H2H:

Hillary: 50
Trump: 44
this is fine.jpg nobutactually.jpg

State polls lag behind national correct? Hopefully Iowa and Ohio move up to a tie soon. Someone on DKE pointed out today's batch of Quinnipiac polls was mostly done over last week (nine day sample whyyy) so it might have caught the full brunt of the fainting episode.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Real shit. If black people don't get out and vote for whatever reason. Then we deserve whatever HELL a Trump Presidency brings.

I asked someone to imagine how a Trump Justice Department would handle the BLM issue. Attorney General Rudolph Giuliani. His department would probably ignore BLM complaints and give winks/thumbs-up at local police departments.
 
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