gutter_trash
Banned
please replace Pence with Giuliani
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
- Start date
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please replace Pence with Giuliani
Kander has gained significant ground in the past month and supposedly Blunt's internals shows that he is down one point to his challenger. GOP is clearly nervous considering they've routed a lot of money to his campaign. A recent Remington poll (the firm who does Blunt's internals) released a Missouri poll without a senate information. Strange and yet very telling.
Koster is running away with the governor race because even the NRA can tell that Greitens is a damn moron.
I don't know if we'll have Hillary + Senate in any other two years than her first two. And I don't trust the GOP to hold confirmation hearings or a vote - in any circumstances.
FloydtheFathead
Member
He's not T-Mac DM..
sazzy
Member
someone should start a change.org petition as a 'concerned republican'
Basileus777
Member
He'll be 73 years old. No chance.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I dunno. I'm not prepared to accept that we're going to hit a Constitutional crisis at a never-before-seen level.
Aaron Strife
Banned
2020 has a couple pickup opportunities. Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa if it isn't too far gone by then (aided by Ernst being nuts), Maine if Collins hangs it up. Depending on how bad 2018 is we could regain ground.
nature boy
Member
There was applause and also booing. One or two people.
Old is the New Black
Nomadic Sparks
Banned
Is Missouri still gonna turn red?
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Someone will have to explain this to me. I do know what gerrymandering means, but don't understand how that will work against the GOP depending on voter turnout.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Honestly yeah probably but I think it could be a lot closer than anyone would expect like in 08
Basileus777
Member
We have no idea the state of the race anymore. Trump could certainly lose it if he gets walloped.
To put on my tinfoil cap for a second, is it possible that a lot of Republican officials have been waiting for an excuse to drop Trump? His chances of taking the White House plummeted after the first debate.
That recording is horrible, but I don't think it's even the worst sexism gaffe Trump's made. Remember, this guy is a presumed rapist who's joked about screwing his daughter.
That recording is horrible, but I don't think it's even the worst sexism gaffe Trump's made. Remember, this guy is a presumed rapist who's joked about screwing his daughter.
metalslimer
Member
The GOP is disintegrating. A destruction tomorrow would put the house in play for sure.
I'm going with +10 in the next poll
I'm going with +10 in the next poll
Romney leading the charge on big name Republicans distancing themselves from Trump.
As the Democrats what do you do? Do you allow Republicans to distance themselves and continue to focus exclusively on nailing Trump? Or do you use this scandal to finally start attacking the party as a whole?
I'm leaning towards the first option. Democrats have got to know by now that actually governing will be next to impossible if the Republican party is allowed to function as "normal." And that's exactly what they're going to try and do. Starting now, apparently.
Trump is cooked. I say keep an eye on him, keep running against him, But Hillary and the Demz need to turn their attention downticket. Republicans shouldn't be allowed to pivot if their chosen frontrunner won't.
As the Democrats what do you do? Do you allow Republicans to distance themselves and continue to focus exclusively on nailing Trump? Or do you use this scandal to finally start attacking the party as a whole?
I'm leaning towards the first option. Democrats have got to know by now that actually governing will be next to impossible if the Republican party is allowed to function as "normal." And that's exactly what they're going to try and do. Starting now, apparently.
Trump is cooked. I say keep an eye on him, keep running against him, But Hillary and the Demz need to turn their attention downticket. Republicans shouldn't be allowed to pivot if their chosen frontrunner won't.
It's hard to gauge, since we're in uncharted territory. I hope you're right.
How much we lose in 2018 is going to be so damn critical. I took 2014's losses pretty well, but I'd be much more upset if we get wiped-out defending all of those seats in '18.
--
Meanwhile, Ben Carson insists that he's #StillTrump:
@reidepstein
EXCELLENT. I like these voices whispering sweet nothings into his ear. Reinforcing his gut instinct to stay in. This is great stuff.
Feels like a lot more than a possibility to me.
HanShotFirst
Member
Republicans have drawn a lot of districts where they win by about 4-7 points. Its a solid lead but in a wave it can all fall a part for them if Democrats win these seats even by just 1 or 2 points.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Basically, they try to inflate their numbers by getting seemingly safe -- but not overwhemlming -- majorities into as many districts as possible, leaving a smaller number of districts that are crammed with opposing voters. In a state like North Carolina, where votes for House reps was nearly split in 2012, Republicans came out with a 10-3 advantage. Imagine results like
D +50
R +6
R +6
R +6
R +6
D +40
This house of cards crumbles if turnout is suppressed in your own base, when you safe (but not overwhelming!) majorities get eroded.
whyamihere
Banned
You could say Hillary won this election under budget and ahead of schedule.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Gerrymandering is when you take a R+10 district and a D+1 district and change the boundaries so they both become R+5 districts.
If your voters show up in a presidential election, you'll probably win most R+5 districts.
If your voters don't show up and you end up losing districts by 7 points because of that... You start losing all of those R+5 districts which means you lose those districts that used to be R+10 also.
benjipwns
Banned
If somenthing happened to massively depress GOP turnout candidates in gerrymandered districts would be ousted as turnout collapsed. I don't see what's so awful for the GOP about that compared to the scenario where we have balanced districts and moderately lowered GOP turnout swings more seats on average.
Edit: Ah it's explained well above, that makes sense.
https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784793568267284480
Is Ben Carson actually a real person
Whenever he talks I ask myself this
Fragamemnon
Member
Forma last night made the path clear-calling his remarks outrageous and reprehensible isn't enough. Make them say openly if they still endorse Trump and if they won't answer make your entire campaign about it until they do.
If they unendorse, fine, you get to move on with the issues while they have to find a way to get their base back together. If they keep endorsing, you beat them over the head with it.
It's really easy. Note that I thought the "don't give Hillary a blank check" campaign was going to get rolled out next week regardless, but forcing unendorsement is a bigger thing than that.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
BrokenFiction
Member
The DCCC needs to empty its bank accounts for this last month. Go balls to the wall broke for that down-ballot push. Paint every GOPer under-reelection with the Trump brush. Even if they disavowed him, make them look like cowards for not doing it sooner.
When the Republican Party gerrymanders, they basically try to create districts with relatively small Republican majorities, and pack as many Democrats.into as few districts as they can. That way, Republicans can grab most or all of the seats while giving as few seats to Democrats as possible, even in states with more Democratic voters.
But if turnout for Republicans drops like a rock, then those small Republican majority seats can flip Democrat, and you don't have any safe Republican seats as insurance. Your whole state turns blue.
Generally if you're gerrymandering you want to split up voters so your opponents have a bunch of districts where they win with like 80% of the vote while you have even more districts where you win with like 55%. That way a lot of your opponent's supporter's votes get "wasted" running up the margins in their winning districts. But then if your voters fail to show up for whatever reason, those 55% winning margins drop and you have the chance to lose your carefully planned districts.
How come Mook keeps baiting me with "we're behind on fundraising" emails then?!
lol
Austin Texas Gerrymandering is a good example of what could happen if turnout is suppressed. Austin has a huge population that the Republican party is attempting to suppress by aggressive rural Gerrymandering. What happens when Republican turnout is massively suppressed, but the Democratic base is vigorously motivated?
No.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Oh please, any other Dem with less baggage would be looking at an LBJ landslide right now. Even if she wins, it will be an under performed win.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
I know his ego would never allow it, but what would happen if he dropped out? Are there provisions for extreme circumstances like that? Would it be like if he died during the campaign?
Manmademan
Member
this is just gorgeous.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's a heroin induced fantasy from the RNC that has no chance of happening.
tedrotheredro
Member
RustyNails
Member
John Thune is asking Trump to stand aside and Pence take over.
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