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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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CCS

Banned
But hadn't all the Latinos, African Americans, the LBGTQ and the poor always been the villian in the eyes of every conservative since Reagan?

It's kinda poorly worded but I think that's the point, that they've been demonising them for decades which is what leads you to this.
 

thebloo

Member
This is definitely some cartoon soldiering, although I think people now have unrealistic expectations about Hillary's margin of victory.

Some are claiming she will get 70%+ of the popular vote.

My take is +4% is the floor, +7% is the ceiling come election day. Next weeks' polls will likely show her ahead by 10 points or so, and it will tighten from then until election day into the range above.

It is known.

What are you basing this on? There are still a lot of things that will happen. Some of them could push the election to 8-10 points. It's not super likely, but it can happen.

I do agree that anything over 10 is unrealistic.
 
This is definitely some cartoon soldiering, although I think people now have unrealistic expectations about Hillary's margin of victory.

Some are claiming she will get 70%+ of the popular vote.

My take is +4% is the floor, +7% is the ceiling come election day. Next weeks' polls will likely show her ahead by 10 points or so, and it will tighten from then until election day into the range above.

It is known.

Yea. This is the final chance for Trump to do anything salvageable (new oppo dump might mean otherwise though I guess). He is fighting for his life here, so it will either go really bad for him or he will do ok and it would be fine.
 
Exclusive poll: GOP voters want the party to stand by Trump
horserace-trendline.png


A wave of Republican officials abandoned Donald Trump Saturday, but, at least for now, rank-and-file Republicans are standing by the party's presidential candidate, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted immediately after audio was unearthed Friday that had the GOP nominee crudely bragging about groping women and trying to lure a married woman into an affair.

Overall, fewer than four-in-10 voters -- 39 percent -- think Trump should end his presidential campaign, while only slightly more voters, 45 percent, think he should not drop out.

But voters are largely viewing Trump's comments through their own partisan lens: 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign, but just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree.

As of now, GOP voters largely want the party to stand behind Trump. Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support Trump. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn’t back him.

Still, Hillary Clinton leads Trump in the four-way race for the White House by four points, 42 percent to 38 percent, with eight percent supporting Gary Johnson, three percent supporting Jill Stein and nine percent undecided. Clinton also leads by four in a two-way race, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Operatives in both parties say they believe it will take several days -- and Sunday night's debate at Washington University in St. Louis -- to have the video bake into the public consciousness.
...
 
My hot take on debate tonight:

Trump will overall do well exceeding expectations and narrative will change to Trump can come back now.

You forgot the /s

God we're going to totally get DGAF non-teleprompter straight from the gut to mouth Trump for every question today aren't we?

Yes. I don't know where this notion of "trump might do better this time" is coming from. He will produce more verbal diarrhea this time than he did last debate. He is a sociopath, a megalomaniac. Trump can do no wrong and everyone who isn't on his side is out to get him.

This is definitely some cartoon soldiering, although I think people now have unrealistic expectations about Hillary's margin of victory.

Some are claiming she will get 70%+ of the popular vote.

My take is +4% is the floor, +7% is the ceiling come election day. Next weeks' polls will likely show her ahead by 10 points or so, and it will tighten from then until election day into the range above.

It is known.

I think you might be giving his campaign more value than it's worth. Remember, his campaign is being run based on "feels". The people running the campaign really do think that there is a huge silent majority waiting to rush to the polls on Election Day. He doesn't have a GOTV strategy. He doesn't have anywhere near the amount of staff and money that Hillary's campaign has. And, except for white nationalists, he's pissed off just about every demographic that exists. Not to mention the entire GOP is in shambles right now.
 
Remember this when it comes to polls after the video

CuUoORdWYAATkmw.jpg


I hope the next one drops Monday morning

IIRC, it took about 5 days or so before polling started showing the full effects. Except for the Family Research Council. But I only think they polled so that Akin was "leading" so they could say, "look guyz he's winning! Really! please believe us :("
 

Boke1879

Member
I don't think the damage can be assessed right now. Sometime next week we'll get a clearer picture if everything. Considering the dropped support, him apparently going to attack Bill, RNC redirecting funds. He's also going to attack the GOP.

He won't be able to stay on message and ads are being cut right now with that audio.
 
I just realized something. If the Trumpocalypse happens and the DNC wins the House, the three most powerful people in American politics will be in the eyes of the alt-right the following - Hillary Clinton, the evil bitch who wants to destroy American whiteness and also acts like my Mom who made me do my homework before letting me play Doom when I was a teenager as President, Nancy Pelosi, a San Francisco SJW liberal as Speaker, and Chuck Schumer, a New York Jew.

Edit: Along with everything else, that's a Morning Consult poll.
 

Loudninja

Member
I don't think the damage can be assessed right now. Sometime next week we'll get a clearer picture if everything. Considering the dropped support, him apparently going to attack Bill, RNC redirecting funds. He's also going to attack the GOP.

He won't be able to stay on message and ads are being cut right now with that audio.
The damage is already pretty clear with alot of dropped support.

I mean it takes alot for the GOP to drop support.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Maybe my favorite part of that poll:
But not only do three-quarters of Republican voters want the party to stand behind Trump, there’s a potential warning in the data for GOP officeholders like Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), who announced Saturday she wouldn’t vote for him: Fewer than a third of voters are willing to give greater consideration to a candidate who un-endorses Trump.

Downticket turmoil.
 
I'm actually starting to think Trump might take the entire party down with him. Like, Dem's evening up the House does not seem so outlandish right now...

like Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), who announced Saturday she wouldn’t vote for him

But I thought he was a good role model?
 
He isn't sorry so that is not possible. Did you not see him on Friday night

It's not that he's actually sorry. It's that he might deliver a well rehearsed "apology" to kick off the debate, after which all his defenders will be able to say he made a sincere apology and we should move on.

I wouldn't be surprised by this attempt. Of course I don't think Donald wants to apologize, but I do think he wants to win.

Also, good morning gang. I'm on a bus to New York. Three hours to go.
 

Boke1879

Member
It's not that he's actually sorry. It's that he might deliver a well rehearsed "apology" to kick off the debate, after which all his defenders will be able to say he made a sincere apology and we should move on.

I wouldn't be surprised by this attempt. Of course I don't think Donald wants to apologize, but I do think he wants to win.

Also, good morning gang. I'm on a bus to New York. Three hours to go.

The man couldn't even do a staged pre recorded video right and we expect him to do well off the cuff?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
It's not that he's actually sorry. It's that he might deliver a well rehearsed "apology" to kick off the debate, after which all his defenders will be able to say he made a sincere apology and we should move on.

I wouldn't be surprised by this attempt. Of course I don't think Donald wants to apologize, but I do think he wants to win.

Also, good morning gang. I'm on a bus to New York. Three hours to go.
half of the party ditched him already. Are they going to come back?
 
Interestingly enough Kellyane Conway was also campaign consultant for Todd Akin

Must be deja vu for her, way to pick'em

Akin also won the nomination with around 40% of the vote in a fractured primary. That's also the primary where a pro-McCaskill PAC sent out mailers to conservative voters "attacking" Akin's record.
 
There are also many reports that the internals of both camps are all showing a cratering after just one day of Pussygate, hence the scramble by the GOP congresscritters.
 

Salvadora

Member
I'm so curious to see how Trump performs tonight.

Pulling the "[Bill] Clinton is a rapist" card and then blaming his wife for his (alleged) crimes sounds awful to anyone but his own base.
 

Nordicus

Member
I am guessing that Trump starts the debate today with an apology that is made to sound very sincere.
It's not that he's actually sorry. It's that he might deliver a well rehearsed "apology" to kick off the debate, after which all his defenders will be able to say he made a sincere apology and we should move on.
Trump can't sound sincerely sorry in a video much le-
The man couldn't even do a staged pre recorded video right and we expect him to do well off the cuff?
Damn, beat me to it
 
I was watching Australian News and the American Correspondent was saying the GOP could make a deal with Trump where he publicly declares himself disabled which automatically puts his VP infront of the ticket. Is that true?
 
I was watching Australian News and the American Correspondent was saying the GOP could make a deal with Trump where he publicly declares himself disabled which automatically puts his VP infront of the ticket. Is that true?

Hair Mouse would never allow this. There is higher chance that Obama is indeed born in Kenya than having Trump rescind the nomination.
 
I was watching Australian News and the American Correspondent was saying the GOP could make a deal with Trump where he publicly declares himself disabled which automatically puts his VP infront of the ticket. Is that true?

not really, because there's no way to enforce it.

Hypothetically, say they do this and Pence wins. Trump then goes back on his word and says those electors are his and he should be president.

The only recourse would then be a massive "faithless elector" scenario which would be the most epic constitutional crisis this country's ever seen. Whichever candidate came out of that the victor would have no legitimacy for the next 4 years and would certainly get run out of office at the next election.

OR

you're looking at a scenario where the "base" is convinced that the establishment has run Trump off the ballot, they revolt and fail to show up, handing Clinton the biggest electoral win since Reagan/Mondale.

It's fantasy. They're stuck with Trump.
 
I was watching Australian News and the American Correspondent was saying the GOP could make a deal with Trump where he publicly declares himself disabled which automatically puts his VP infront of the ticket. Is that true?

They would still lose the election. The is going to be the probable death of the Republican Party. The people who support Trump through thick and thin are at best 25-30% of the population, and they are largely anti-Politician which means they have no interest in downticket races. Not to mention, you think somebody who supports Trump and watched him dismantle people like Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz is going to vote for those people?
 

Salvadora

Member
Priebus, Conway have cancelled all Sunday show appearances.
I suppose, at some point, there just isn't a point to making media appearances while this is ongoing.

It benefits Trump and his supporters to wait for the talking points that will come out of the debate.
 

sazzy

Member
I suppose, at some point, there just isn't a point to making media appearances while this is ongoing.

It benefits Trump and his supporters to wait for the talking points that will come out of the debate.

Giuliani is going in their places.
 
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