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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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sazzy

Member
new crystal ball map

:D

i feel happy now. morning joe really fucking bummed me out earlier

Q9xfHF.png
 

Ithil

Member
Damn, the moderators were so good last night. They has a rocky start getting the candidates past the scandal blaming phase, but then they were on-point. Love how they hammered both candidates on Syria.

They really let him have it on the tapes and Syria questions. Asking him three times if he has committed the acts he claims he has in the tapes because he kept avoiding the question, and on his non-answer about Aleppo instead of just letting him off.He really thoroughly demonstrated he knows absolutely nothing about military strategy on the latter.
 

benjipwns

Banned
They really let him have it on the tapes and Syria questions. Asking him three times if he has committed the acts he claims he has in the tapes because he kept avoiding the question, and on his non-answer about Aleppo instead of just letting him off.He really thoroughly demonstrated he knows absolutely nothing about military strategy on the latter.
SNEAK ATTACK
 
I don't think her speech answer was good.

I'm also surprised, and happy, that the general consensus was that he flubbed the first 20-30 minutes of the debate. I assumed the opposite.
 

Toxi

Banned
I don't think her Lincoln answer was that good.

First, she just kind of made it sound like all she was talking about was what you emphasize in talking to different people. This wasn't very plausible. She didn't really touch on why the private position had to be private.

Second, sure, we're all okay with a politician being deceptive in order to get evil people to go along with something really good if that's what they have to do. But Clinton's problem is that people don't trust her. Lincoln lied to try to free slaves, preserve the union, etc. People worry that Clinton is lying to help out Wall Street.
While I don't think Clinton handled the question well, this is the speech excerpt she was asked about.

You just have to sort of figure out how to -- getting back to that word, "balance" -- how to balance the public and the private efforts that are necessary to be successful, politically, and that's not just a comment about today. That, I think, has probably been true for all of our history, and if you saw the Spielberg movie, Lincoln, and how he was maneuvering and working to get the 13th Amendment passed, and he called one of my favorite predecessors, Secretary Seward, who had been the governor and senator from New York, ran against Lincoln for president, and he told Seward, I need your help to get this done. And Seward called some of his lobbyist friends who knew how to make a deal, and they just kept going at it. I mean, politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory, and it always has been that way, but we usually end up where we need to be. But if everybody's watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position. And finally, I think -- I believe in evidence-based decision making. I want to know what the facts are. I mean, it's like when you guys go into some kind of a deal, you know, are you going to do that development or not, are you going to do that renovation or not, you know, you look at the numbers. You try to figure out what's going to work and what's not going to work.
 
Well thank heavens the Trump campaign would never engage in rumors, innuendo or conspiracy as "news".

Fox had the headline earlier this morning about this, and it was "Pence: Still the VP Nominee" and everyone was just so happy about it. And I'm sitting here thinking how embarrassing of a headline that is to read.

And I don't normally watch Fox. It was in the doctor's office.
 

Gotchaye

Member
But she's actually more liberal in private.

Like one of the big reveals was her touting Canadian Healthcare,, something she couldn't just come out and say publicly.

Right, she could make this case, but she doesn't, and really I think she should. I think it is much better for her if she can plausibly explain not releasing the speeches and this public/private thing as "the country not being ready" for stuff that 90% of her voters are totally fine with. You've got to set and advocate achievable goals and not get distracted letting the Republicans yell about imaginary socialists, even though you expect and hope that these practical steps will eventually lead somewhere once people see that it's actually pretty good and not-socialism. Instead she's just letting people draw their own conclusions about why she's got a public and private position and what she was so worried about in these speeches.

While I don't think Clinton handled the question well, this is the speech excerpt she was asked about.

Yeah, and this is pretty different both from what she suggested in the debate and what I think is the easy "the country isn't ready for UHC" explanation. I think there's basically no way to explain to voters why they don't want total transparency when it comes to political compromise.
 
So is the media consensus that the debate was a draw? That seems to be what I'm getting from CNN's website.

Only in the sense that Trump probably stopped the defections. I haven't seen a single argument that he won on policy.

Also, it's really ironic that Clinton's answer on the Lincoln thing was so bad is exactly the reason you can't be explicitly honest with people. She couldn't fit her full answer into a soundbite for people to digest.
 

Boke1879

Member
I don't think her speech answer was good.

I'm also surprised, and happy, that the general consensus was that he flubbed the first 20-30 minutes of the debate. I assumed the opposite.

Not that this is a problem, but it's because you most likely were focusing on her with a razor thin lens. She didn't give an answer you deemed "good" so she was terrible. Trump was atrocious to start the debate.

I doubt her speech answer even gets talked about at length. Especially when her opponent said he'd jail her if elected.
 

BiggNife

Member
Wallace is from Fox News, yes, but he's also a democrat.

I'm not happy with the comments he made about how it's not a moderator's job to fact check but he's not on Trump's side either.
 

Boke1879

Member
So is the media consensus that the debate was a draw? That seems to be what I'm getting from CNN's website.

Their polls show that Clinton won. He played to his base. They'll love what he did, but consensus seems he didn't do anything to move the needle or change trajectory.
 

sazzy

Member
Her problem with the Lincoln answer was that she started with "I was watching this movie... blah blah..."

It should've gone, "in [year], Lincoln had to [explain what he did in 2 sentences]. And that is what I'm trying to live up to..."
 

Revolver

Member
My wife was really pissed after the debate. The way he paraded out his p***y shields beforehand, the way he talked to the Muslim woman, just his whole bullying stalkerish body language. One thing that really irked her was how he tried to drag Michelle Obama down in the mud too. She wanted Hillary to just bury him right on the stage. At one point she said, "fuck going high, end this nightmare."
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Are you serious? The only person who likes saying ISIS more is Sterling fucking Archer.

But every single answer has been devoid of any meaningful content. He rambles like an idiot.

Is he actually threatening or implying he won't do it, or is it just rumor mongering like the last two debates?

There was a rumor floating the other day about it.

No, it's the same format as the first one.

My mistake--I thought I read elsewhere it was foreign-policy based.

It is moderated by Chris Wallace from Fox News.

People keep saying this, but Chris Wallace was fantastic in the primary debates. Easily the best moderator they had, and he wasn't letting Trump get away with anything.
 

Boke1879

Member
Wallace is from Fox News, yes, but he's also a democrat.

I'm not happy with the comments he made about how it's not a moderator's job to fact check but he's not on Trump's side either.

It's really not his job to fact check. I'm just hoping he'll push back a little. Don't let him spew bullshit without him following it up.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Peter Hamby ‏@PeterHamby 17m17 minutes ago
Man, the panic from GOP strategists actually working on Senate and House races sure does sound different from the "Trump won!" punditry.

Jonathan Martin ‏@jmartNYT 38m38 minutes ago
Here's the prob w Trump lives on! line: many electeds still paralyzed by fear of

-first wave of polling they get back
-more shoes dropping

.
 

sazzy

Member
Wallace is from Fox News, yes, but he's also a democrat.

I'm not happy with the comments he made about how it's not a moderator's job to fact check but he's not on Trump's side either.

his wiki page says that he's a REGISTERED democrat for practical reasons, so that he can participate in local politics in DC
 

Grief.exe

Member
Wallace isn't O'Reilly or Hannity, he's not going to coach him and half-answer the question he's asking.

Wallace is from Fox News, yes, but he's also a democrat.

I'm not happy with the comments he made about how it's not a moderator's job to fact check but he's not on Trump's side either.

I just don't trust anyone from Fox News.

Her problem with the Lincoln answer was that she started with "I was watching this movie... blah blah..."

It should've gone, "in [year], Lincoln had to [explain what he did in 2 sentences]. And that is what I'm trying to live up to..."

Yes, it could have been more concise to come off more easily to voters.

That came closer to the beginning of the debate, right? She was just getting constantly blasted by a belligerent, aggressive opponent.

My wife was really pissed after the debate. The way he paraded out his p***y shields beforehand, the way he talked to the Muslim woman, just his whole bullying stalkerish body language. One thing that really irked her was how he tried to drag Michelle Obama down in the mud too. She wanted Hillary to just bury him right on the stage. At one point she said, "fuck going high, end this nightmare."

Islamaphobia question. Trump's answer - we need more islamaphobia
Bring the country together question. Trump sees black man,, answer - you people live in hell with no education.
 

kevin1025

Banned
My wife was really pissed after the debate. The way he paraded out his p***y shields beforehand, the way he talked to the Muslim woman, just his whole bullying stalkerish body language. One thing that really irked her was how he tried to drag Michelle Obama down in the mud too. She wanted Hillary to just bury him right on the stage. At one point she said, "fuck going high, end this nightmare."

It may not feel like it right now, but there were two starkly different people on stage last night. Good people can see that difference. Crazy people see what they want to see in the other person. Trump didn't move the needle, if anything his predatory body language turned off women for good. Let him do this thing, it will only send him farther down the tubes.

That your wife was pissed after the debate is good! It shows Trump didn't do his job.
 
So is the media consensus that the debate was a draw? That seems to be what I'm getting from CNN's website.
Clinton won, but by less than the first one, so people are just already extrapolating the trendlines to the "what if" scenario of having a zillion more debates where the trend lines eventually cross ending up in a Trump victory.
 

kmag

Member
Right, she could make this case, but she doesn't, and really I think she should. I think it is much better for her if she can plausibly explain not releasing the speeches and this public/private thing as "the country not being ready" for stuff that 90% of her voters are totally fine with. You've got to set and advocate achievable goals and not get distracted letting the Republicans yell about imaginary socialists, even though you expect and hope that these practical steps will eventually lead somewhere once people see that it's actually pretty good and not-socialism. Instead she's just letting people draw their own conclusions about why she's got a public and private position and what she was so worried about in these speeches.



Yeah, and this is pretty different both from what she suggested in the debate and what I think is the easy "the country isn't ready for UHC" explanation. I think there's basically no way to explain to voters why they don't want total transparency when it comes to political compromise.


The public/private thing is pretty straightforward. It's literally how non fascist or dictatorial systems work. If you have to build consensus (within your own party and potentially with members of the other party) to legislate you're always going to have a ideal position and a line in the sand position: i.e the positions and compromises you'll accept to get the substantive part of your legislation through. Which part is public, the ideal or the line in the sand, is really a function of public support for your position.

i.e Hillary's ideal may be a Canadian style healthcare system but her pragmatic position is that that's not going to get through so the best she can aim for a public option with a reformed Obamacare marketplace.

The public don't really do nuance though, they conceptually understand it but when a politician shows it they're considered either weak or dishonest.
 

Boke1879

Member
I need that next oppo-drop.

giphy.gif

It doesn't need to happen yet. She's going to campaign the next couple of days. If anything drops this week it'll probably be Wed or Thurs.

We have 4 weeks until election day, and I'd say 3 weeks at most to make any oppo dump effective. Something will come out I'm sure each week.

I really sincerely hope there is footage of Trump saying the N word and I hope someone gets it. You drop that shit before the last debate and I don't think there is any coming back from that.
 
I don't think her speech answer was good.

I'm also surprised, and happy, that the general consensus was that he flubbed the first 20-30 minutes of the debate. I assumed the opposite.
I said it last night and I'll say it again: in the first 20 minutes, the man sounded like a shitty text-to-speech program being fed Lorem Ipsum filler text. He got into a groove later, but his start was one of the worst, flattest public speaking performances I've seen since middle school book reports.
 
I hope no new oppo drops until almost the end of the week. Let the tape from last Friday fester for a couple more days please and give it a few weekday news cycle. If a new oppo drops soon, we'd be all desensitized by election day, normalizing Trump's deplorable behavior. You already see it to a certain extent this election cycle.
 

Grief.exe

Member
One person interviewed on NPR today was complaining about the lack of policy. I'm sorry, I can't agree.

Hillary's answers are dense with policy, she even breaks them down by numbered ideas to make them more digestible by the American people.

Her health care response, Syria, bringing the country together, and supreme court answer stick out to me, especially the latter where she hit on preserving Roe v Wade, Voting Rights Act, repealing Citizens United, and respecting the 2nd Amendment, but realizing there is more we can do.

In contrast to Trump whose answer on healthcare was repeal the Affordable Care Act and remove the lines between states so insurance companies can compete, when asked to elaborate could not even go further.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Mr. Bone is awesome on CNN lol

He has a great sense if humour about himself and despite being undecided clearly has a good grasp of political issues. The rare non-idiot undecided.
 
Ken Bone seems like a nice guy. Shame a lot of the internet seems to be making fun of him. There's no way I believe he is actually undecided. He had one of the best questions of the night.
 
As expected:

Robert CostaVerified account
‏@costareports
In calls this morning, many Rs privately want to defect from Trump. But they say the debate gave them pause since he roused their base.

Nothing will really change, GOP in total paralysis.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
: sigh :

Trump's base is not going anywhere. They are never going anywhere. They love him if he wins, loses or takes a shit on stage. No one should give two shits about his fucking base. Literally, the basket of deplorables will follow him to hell in a hand basket. There was absolutely positively no way or reason to "knock him out" last night. Like, she did exactly what she needed to do by any conceivable metric OTHER than bed wetting.

I agree that Hillary did what she needed to and has, barring accident, sewn up the presidency.

Of course it could go better with a historical massive landslide in popular vote, but that's not in Hillary's hands because it relies on fracturing the Republican base between the Trumpists and the anti-Trumpists - and that is very much down to what the Republican party does next and what it thinks are its short term and long term benefits. It depends on ballot-splitting and no-shows, and for each Republican up for election it is high risk whatever they do. The chances of them taking co-ordinated action across the country are near as dammit zero, so I reckon Trump will safely get 35-40% of the vote. With a miracle it could dip into the high twenties, but that's not a miracle that the GOP would willingly engineer for Hillary.
 

Boke1879

Member
What are the odds of the republican party coming back to him only to be destroyed in the blast of the next tape drop?

The people who un-endorsed can't just come crawling back now. The GOP are screwed right now. Trump played to the base. The base they need to win. I have no doubts more damaging oppo is coming.
 
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