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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Owen Ellickson's Trump fanfiction had Paul Ryan getting banned from his own church yesterday for supporting Trump just to get lower taxes on the rich and it is so amazing and satisfying.
 
D

Drek

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
She's clearly just talking about the specificity about it "disrespecting" the anthem. She's old fashioned. She clearly defends their right and has made a career at the ACLU and holding the constitution as an important tool to fight discrimination.

https://thinkprogress.org/justice-ginsburg-america-has-a-real-racial-problem-616626eae51d#.o0rd98oco
two years ago she was highlighting racial issues. and she wrote the shelby dissent.



She's tone policing, shrug, this seems like Yahoo wanting to make a bigger deal than it is.
Click to expand...

I'd argue that her viewpoint is unlikely to be as shallow as simply seeing it as disrespect.

Think about it from a utilitarian standpoint.

What does it gain? From what I can see it gains very little. It makes one side the the argument (the right one to be sure) feel a bit better, sure, as it gives a brief media spotlight on an important issue, but it makes the other side galvanize their resolve and ultimately moves the narrative away from the actual topic. It doesn't give the issue a megaphone, just competition. If you didn't think cops were using excessive force in policing black communities in this country before Kaep took a knee your mind hasn't been changed one iota.

The other side of this debate also are the ones with more direct access to the white undecided voters who make up the all important swing demographic. I wouldn't be surprised at all if RBG's view is that this simply muddies the waters and gives regressives a new talking point to remove context from and spout out as why PC culture and liberal media are killing the country. At the cost of disrespecting the national anthem, something she and many others clearly hold a strong amount of sentiment for.

I personally think that it is a principled stand by the athletes in question and I respect the hell out of them for taking the risk and making waves in such a heavily controlled and punitively managed sport. But that is a matter of their own ethics and I see no real way it plays a role in catalyzing real change. About one third of the nation is just too entrenched in their deplorable ass ways with congressional districts drawn entirely in their favor.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
I just love that Pence is sticking by Trump 100%. The GOP that pulled away from Trump were at least smart enough to know that more shit is coming, and it's not a good look for him. Real talk if that video with Trump saying the N word is real and it gets released Pence is going to look like the dumbest fucker alive and I am here for it lol.

Paul Ryan is trying to have his cake and eat it too. He's getting shit from all angles because he didn't make a stand one way or the other. He's leaving the GOP House to hang themselves, and now he's publicly getting shit from Donald Trump. Trump will no doubt call him out by name and the people that pulled support.

I really hope Trump does that because it's a distraction and the more he's focused on other shit, the better is it for us.
 
J

jmdajr

Member
It took awhile, but business has picked up in the destruction of the GOP.

Like we knew it would happen but things are really moving now. Full steam ahead.
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Meanwhile, at RNC Headquarters...

jlV3Rd1.gif
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
The Wang has spoken and I think it's worth the read.

Some secrets are not dirty

Sam Wang said:
Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%.

In last night’s debate, the 2005 candid video of Donald Trump saying what he does with women was still on everyone’s mind. In response, he brought up many topics beloved by Republican rank-and-file voters: Bill Clinton, Benghazi, emails…it was a veritable Greatest Hits of 1996-2016. The likely consequence of this scorched-earth strategy is that Republican leaders are trapped. All their base (R) belong to him. This will reverberate downticket.

This seems like a good time to reveal one of the Princeton Election Consortium’s own secrets. Thankfully, it does not involve an Access Hollywood video.

Here it is: poll-based Presidential prediction is not very hard.

I guess that is a pretty boring secret. Sorry.

It is an interesting irony that poll aggregation got popular in 2008, a year when there was not that much suspense in the Presidential race. That year, Barack Obama led John McCain for almost the entire campaign season, with the possible exception of the week after the Republican Convention, where Sarah Palin stole the show. That ended up with a 7-percentage-point popular win, and an electoral outcome of 365-173.

President Obama’s re-election in 2012 carried even less suspense: he never lost the lead to Romney. The closest he came was right after the first debate, though even then he was slightly ahead. The eventual outcome was a 4-percentage-point popular win and an electoral outcome of 332-206.

I have formed a sneaking suspicion that the runaway success of poll-based forecasting arises from these two victories. If this is correct, then quantitative prediction models at sites like The Upshot and FiveThirtyEight (and PEC) basically serve as prurient entertainment for progressives. Which is okay with me. Everyone needs an outlet. Republicans got theirs in 2010 and 2014.

I think it is a good thing that the other sites did not start in 2004. When many hobbyists (including electoral-vote.com, me, and many others) started doing poll aggregation, it was a tough year: John Kerry and President George W. Bush traded the lead several times, and it was a photo finish, coming down to Ohio. When it comes to probability, it is too easy to do a suboptimal job of extracting all the possible value out of polls. That would have led to a boring year of commentary: “it’s too close to call!” seems okay for a pundit to say, but is that what we really want from a data nerd?

This year, Hillary Clinton’s lead has been remarkably consistent, despite the emotional drama offered by commentators. At some level the drama is justified by the expected value, which is defined as the size of a payoff (or cost) multiplied by its probability. This year, the cost of a presidency as profoundly disruptive as Trump’s would be enormous. Even 5% of that would be notable.

Reader Damien asks wonders if “one candidate leading an ‘open seat’ presidential race from wire-to-wire is almost unprecedented.” The answer is that we haven’t seen anything like it in over 60 years. The comparisons are 1952 (Eisenhower v. Stevenson), 1960 (Kennedy v. Nixon), 1968 (Nixon v. Humphrey), 1988 (G.H.W. Bush v. Dukakis), 2000 (G.W. Bush v. Gore), and 2008 (Obama v. McCain). Of these, the only race where one candidate led consistently from start to finish was Dwight Eisenhower, who eventually won by 11 percentage points (electoral outcome, 442-89).

Statistically, the two most notable features of this year’s Presidential race have been its closeness and its stability. The stability arises from polarization, in which opinion has been nearly immovable. The Meta-Margin has averaged Clinton +3.6% with a standard deviation of 1.0%. Clinton’s lead is 3.5 standard deviations, which is really big, statistically speaking. It’s a core reason why the PEC win probability has been so stable.

If the Meta-Margin were to drift as high as Clinton +6.0%, it would still be within two standard deviations of the average. Then again, the last week has been pretty surprising. If that happens, we can drill into why, as well as talk about how it affects the Senate and House.

That is not to say that prediction is perfect. I certainly learned some strongly administered lessons in 2004 and 2014. But Presidential analysis seems to be a problem that is well under control, thanks to the abundance of data and analysis from hordes of nerds.

In coming weeks I will get into the remaining puzzles of this year, such as how our approach differs that of other sites, and what it would take for Democrats to re-take the House. Other commentary is likely to concern one of the following topics:

Downticket (where you should get involved!),
Senate/House prediction and analysis,
Partisan polarization, and
Making fun of pundits.
These are more in the domain of “data journalism,” which reader NFB points out is a big source of added value. Still, the horserace coverage is what initially draws people in.

Did I mention that you should get involved downticket? Explore the links in the High-Impact Races sidebar on the left.
Click to expand...

The Wang throws shade on all. Praise the Wang, may we always live in his mighty shadow.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Boke1879 said:
I just love that Pence is sticking by Trump 100%. The GOP that pulled away from Trump were at least smart enough to know that more shit is coming, and it's not a good look for him. Real talk if that video with Trump saying the N word is real and it gets released Pence is going to look like the dumbest fucker alive and I am here for it lol.
Click to expand...
Pence is clearly trying to figure out what will benefit him best for a 2020 run and I think he ran the numbers and figured that sticking to the end would help him more than bailing at the last second.

He knows Trump is going to lose and being known as the only VP who bailed on his candidate right before the election would look really bad for him long term.
 
S

Slurpy2k20

Member
BiggNife said:
Pence is clearly trying to figure out what will benefit him best for a 2020 run and I think he ran the numbers and figured that sticking to the end would help him more than bailing at the last second.

He knows Trump is going to lose and being known as the only VP who bailed on his candidate right before the election would look really bad for him long term.
Click to expand...

So how the fuck does saying things at this point like "Trump literally embodies the spirit of America" help him in 2020 with those tens of millions of people disgusted by Trump?
 
T

thebloo

Member
John Oliver was on point in the intro. Deconstructing the tape, the words and actions in it and the cowardice of the Rs towards Trump.

If American democracy is a computer game, and Hillary is completing women's 100-year quest to get to the oval office, it kind of makes sense that this [Trump] would be the final boss.
Click to expand...
 
T

teiresias

Member
I am living for that 14-point H2H lead in the NBC/WSJ poll.

Eat yourselves alive GOP. Your decades-worth of nastiness, pettiness, bigotry, and hatred are coming home to roast.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Paradoxal_Utopia said:
So how the fuck does saying things at this point like "Trump literally embodies the spirit of America" help him in 2020 with those tens of millions of people disgusted by Trump?
Click to expand...

He'll lie and talk around it, obviously. It's not like that's a new thing for Pence.

Most of the GOP candidates this year endorsed Trump too, so it's not like everyone's blameless. If Cruz or Rubio try to argue "how could you possibly have supported trump!?" He could easily say "well, you guys did too"
 
B

Boke1879

Member
B-Dubs said:
Someone was saying last night how that's the scuttlebutt going around. Nothing solid, but who knows.
Click to expand...

Eh I'm not going to put my faith into something without a legit source. People were saying all sorts of shit last night. People said Pence wanted off the ticket. We clearly see that's not true.
 
S

Slurpy2k20

Member
Does a single fucking person think that the GOP establishment will improve their rhetoric with Clinton in the whitehouse, compared with Obama? They've already got most of their base convinced she's the literal devil, a murderer, a criminal, and the worst liar on the face of the earth. The toxicity is going to be even worse with what Trump has whipped up, with republicans attempting to screw over Clinton at every turn and make her life and her job as difficult as possible, while ensuring that she "fails". At the expense of the country, as always.
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
I'm going to be at Hillary Clinton's rally tonight in Columbus, Ohio.

I think she speaks around 7:30 or something. Area opens up at 4:30 for entrance.

Should be a good time!
 
J

Joe

Member
Do we all agree that Trump hired Sean Hannity not as a political adviser but as a mentor for post-election political multimedia monetization?
 
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