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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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mstevens

Member
Bush granddaughter endorses Clinton over Trump — and conservatives go bonkers

Lauren-Bush-Lauren-800x430.png

Wait.. Is her name Lauren Lauren?

edit: ah, late to the party
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
How much could the debate have "stopped the bleeding" for Trump? All he did was not implode completely like last time. I guess people see it as a draw because of that?
 
1) I think Trump is the one fracturing them, not Clinton. This fracture happens regardless of who Trump faces. I think it's telling that it took this long for the civil war to completely break out, and I think that has a lot to do with Clinton being the opponent. Trump talking about grabbing women by the pussy unsolicited, deporting all illegal aliens, building a wall with Mexico...those are the things that are fracturing the GOP.


Agreed. The GOP civil war has been brewing since 2008 and maybe earlier, as a fraction of the base viewed W as not a true conservative for the mess he made. Trump crystallized it for sure, but it's been a while coming.
 
You know what's really disgusting, Trump's bullshit now gives this subhuman trash this umbrella of thinking their defending victims of sexual assault and, thus, literally, the permission to harass other women.
 
@davidaxelrod

In the modern era, no POTUS candidate has overcome an 11 point deficit, or anything close to it, 30 days before an election.

Every day that goes by makes some kind of unprecedented choke job by Clinton that much more historic and unbelievable. If she blows this, she would be history's biggest loser.
 
How much could the debate have "stopped the bleeding" for Trump? All he did was not implode completely like last time. I guess people see it as a draw because of that?

His supporters - part of the GOP base - loved his performance so it's impossible for folks up for reelection to distance themselves, so now the GOP is paralyzed because most officials want Orange Menace to vanish once and for all but they can't do it without facing (in their view) outrage from the base.



Hay que mojer la cama
 
I am starting to miss Obama already. Gonna be a mess on inauguration. More than anything I think he and Michelle have been absolutely fantastic role models. I know they inspired me to do some stuff I needed to get done. Being intentionally vague there lol.

Thanks, Obamas. :)
 
Landline only. Who gives a fuck.

This says 25% cellular?

https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/toplines-statewideabc27-oct16.pdf

EDIT. It's landline-only for automated (robocall), then a mix of landline and cell for live interviews.

Interviews are conducted with respondents who use a landline telephone as their primary means of contact through our
IVR/automated polling software, in which survey respondents score their answers to a pre-recorded set of questions
using their telephone key pads. An augmentation of live agent interviews is simultaneously conducted with harder-toreach
segments of the population (e.g., younger age groups, households using cellular telephone exchanges as their
primary means of contact, etc.) using the professionally-trained survey research staff from SP&R’s main telephone call
center. Results to both live agent interviews and automated/IVR surveys are then combined into a single data set.
Surveys are carefully monitored to ensure a representative sample of Pennsylvania’s electorate is achieved based on
party, geography, age, gender and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted.

EDIT 2: This poll tricked Romney into thinking he would win PA in 2012.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/11/analysis_1.html

Currently rated B- by 538.
 

sazzy

Member
God damn it. I hate shit like this because it most likely will be nothing but there is always that "what if" in my head.

Anytime, ANYTIME, someone threatens publicly "I'm going to do this big giant game-changing thing at this time of that day", its not happening.

If you have a real bombshell, there is absolutely NO way you warn your opposition beforehand, and give them time to find out what bombshell is, try to prevent its release, or prepare a counter-bombshell.

and lol rachel...

wEwPEP.png
 
I'm spending a few days in Manhattan with my girlfriend and I am floored by how courteous and positive people are.

This isn't my first time on New York, but this is definitely the most ground I've covered. East Village, Greenwich Village, Central Park, Times Square, the subway system, hole in the wall restaurants, etc. Everything we've done the last few days has been stuff we haven't done or used before. This is a summary of all the nice things that have happened.

1. We were going to the Natural History Museum and it was pouring rain. We hadn't anticipated a long line, but it was literally the length of the block. It wrapped all the way around the corner along Central Park West. We were extremely undressed for the rain and we were standing their freezing with nowhere else to go because our check-in at the hotel wasn't until 3:00 and it was only 11:00. I gave my girlfriend my sweatshirt and we stood their shivering as the line moved ten feet every five minutes or so. The couple behind us each had an umbrella and they offered us one of of them until we got to the door. I offered to pay to use it and they said no and insisted we take it. I was going to buy their museum tickets as a thank you but they got away from us once we entered the lobby.

2. As we were leaving the museum, which was BUZZING, a dad carrying his baby in one hand and the folded up stroller in the other was trying to get out. His baby lost its shoe. I picked it up for him and ran to get his attention. He was extremely and supremely grateful. He thanked me so sincerely.

3. We went to dinner at a little place called Little Beet. The kind of pick your protein/grain/vegetable place where they throw it all in a bowl. My girlfriend wanted a veggie pattie, but they were out. Even though she was happy with a second choice, the cashier gave us 20% off our food because he "hates to disappoint happy people."

4. We were on the Subway and a woman pulled her phone out of her pocket and a bunch of folded up money fell out. There was a man sitting near her who got her attention and let her know she dropped it, even thought he could have easily picked it up from where she was sitting and she wouldn't have noticed. She tried to give him a dollar to thank him, and he refused. He said a good deed isn't something you pay for, not even a dollar.

5. We went to a new clothing store in East Village and one of the patrons wrote "Good Luck!" on a hundred dollar bill and refused the change. She only spent like $9 and tipped them the rest.

But even aside from all that, I'm just amazed at how POLITE everyone is. They hold doors open for you and say thank you when you do it for them, they say excuse me when they have to get by and they're sorry when they bump into you. Everyone is always giving people directions and recommendations and everyone is just so goddamn nice. Like, this is New York City. I expected some edge. I expected to have to have to be confident and self sufficient and wary of who's in my subway car. But I've never felt so safe in a city, or so welcome. I go to Boston all the time and that place has EDGE. Manhattan? Not so much. SO NICE.
 
Landline only. Who gives a fuck.
It's a wacky poll, rated B- by 538.

I looked to see the bit about landline polling, but had no idea what it said.

Interviews are conducted with respondents who use a landline telephone as their primary means of contact through our IVR/automated polling software, in which survey respondents score their answers to a pre-recorded set of questions using their telephone key pads. An augmentation of live agent interviews is simultaneously conducted withharder-to-reach segments of the population (e.g., younger age groups, households using cellular telephone exchanges as their primary means of contact, etc.) using the professionally-trained survey research staff from SP&R’s main telephone call center. Results to both live agent interviews and automated/IVR surveys are then combined into a single data set. Surveys are carefully monitored to ensure a representative sample of Pennsylvania’s electorate is achieved based on party, geography, age, gender and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted.
And
Phone Type (from record)
1. Landline phone 576 75%
2. Cellular phone 188 25%

Survey Collection Method:
1. Live Agent Interview 319 42%
2. Automated/IVR 445 58%
So, maybe it included Cell? Also it said it was done until Oct 9th, so it should cover the tapes.
 
I think another aspect of this election that is somewhat underrated is the degree to which Hispanics are going to turn out. I honestly feel like they are going to surprise a lot of people.

Yep. We're a dormant race in terms of activity in polls right now, but when it comes time for the real deal, it's going be a historic turnout for hispanics imo.
 

Cerium

Member
I expected to have to have to be confident and self sufficient and wary of who's in my subway car. But I've never felt so safe in a city, or so welcome.

New York and especially Manhattan is probably the safest city in the country dude.

I live in a heavily black and Hispanic part of Manhattan and it always frustrates me when out of towners assume it's dangerous.
 
New York and especially Manhattan is probably the safest city in the country dude.

Even knowing that, because I did know that, I expected it to be worse than it was. But now that I think about it, even the guy who scammed me last time I came by forcing me to buy a CD was extremely polite. It was pleasant to be forced to "make a donation."

Remember, I'm used to Boston.
 

Barzul

Member
Has Ana considered turning away from the Dark Side and coming to work for the forces of good permanently?

Don't be fooled, she has some very very conservative views. Most never Trumpers do. Certain she'd have been fine with Ted Cruz, but I think she was backing Bush at the start.
 

Iolo

Member
So one GOP insider described it like this: "Stopped the bleeding, but still in the ICU"

Trump has survived a nuclear blast and has gone through the immediate effects of a large radiation dose, and has now proceeded to the "walking ghost" latent period where he's feeling much better. Unfortunately for him, electoral mortality is inevitable in about 2-4 weeks.
 

Sibylus

Banned
So much for that First Amendment!

The parallels to oppressive governments are absolutely evident.

"I'm a proud fascist, bigly, and why aren't the dishonest media reporting on that? Sad! I'm the most bigly fascist ever! Hello? Hello? We need to do something about these folks."
 

HylianTom

Banned
Trump has survived a nuclear blast and has gone through the immediate effects of a large radiation dose, and has now proceeded to the "walking ghost" latent period where he's feeling much better. Unfortunately for him, electoral mortality is inevitable in about 2-4 weeks.

This is a damn good metaphor. I'm sitting here clapping.
 
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