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[HanShotFirst]

The first comment to this made me do a spit take.

Too bad it isn't Rick Scott.

 

[BravesCountry]

Even knowing that, because I did know that, I expected it to be worse than it was. But now that I think about it, even the guy who scammed me last time I came by forcing me to buy a CD was extremely polite. It was pleasant to be forced to "make a donation."

Remember, I'm used to Boston.

Ah, the CD scam. I remember seeing that a ton a few years ago in the city but I haven't seen it as much lately.

 

[HylianTom]

Rachel knows something's coming.

She knows. The hinting there was just so.. damn.. heavy-... handed.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I was just in Boston a few months ago and noticed no "edge"

Generally everyone seemed pretty nice, or at least... not hostile, I guess.

 

[RastaMentality]

Don't be fooled, she has some very very conservative views. Most never Trumpers do. Certain she'd have been fine with Ted Cruz, but I think she was backing Bush at the start.

what're some views she's had? i only really started hearing about her this cycle.

 

[Manmademan]

http://abc27.com/2016/10/10/abc27-poll-clinton-trump-in-tight-race-for-pennsylvania/

that poll doesn't look right at all. I wonder how they came up with those numbers?

LOL. there it is.

Wildly oversampling conservative white voters.

2012 was 76% white, 13% african american, and 6% latino. No one in their right mind thinks the white vote is going to spike 10% while dropping the black and latino vote that badly.

Party ID is also off. PA was 45% democratic, 35% republican, 20% Independent/Other. This poll has democrats at 38, Independents at 27%, and republicans at 35%.

Liberals were 37%, Moderates 42, Conservatives 31%.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/PA/president/

Why even put out a poll with a scenario that off base?

 

[Paches]

that poll doesn't look right at all. I wonder how they came up with those numbers?

LOL. there it is.

Wildly oversampling conservative white voters.

2012 was 76% white, 13% african american, and 6% latino. No one in their right mind thinks the white vote is going to spike 10% while dropping the black and latino vote that badly.

Party ID is also off. PA was 45% democratic, 35% republican, 20% Independent/Other.

Liberals were 37%, Moderates 42, Conservatives 31%.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/PA/president/

Why even put out a poll with a scenario that off base?

Thanks for doing the leg work. I am more happy now.

 

[Boke1879]

Rachel knows something's coming.

She knows. The hinting there was just so.. damn.. heavy-... handed.

Hmm can you give me a condensed version of what she said?

 

[Wag]

What's also bad for Trump is that people are voting (mail in) this weekend already- a particularly bad time considering what happened on Fri. My parents voted in Fl yesterday.

 

[gaugebozo]

I'm spending a few days in Manhattan with my girlfriend *snip*

I recently got a job in Hoboken that I have to travel for, and I go to both Boston and NJ/NY. I have been really impressed by how polite and nice people in both places are. (Maybe I'm going to the nice areas of Boston? Lol)

I've spent a number of years in upstate New York after grewing up in Michigan, and the biggest change I noticed (besides terrible local food and snow) was that people were not very polite. Don't hold doors, don't say thank you, etc. Enough that everytime we went back to Michigan it was a shock. I had just assumed it was an East coast thing.

On the trip I just got back from, a co-worker from DC said hello to a little old lady on the street with just a little more behind it than a random hello. It turns out they recognized each other from his previous time there. What? Now I feel like the impolite one.

 

[sturgboski]

Rachel knows something's coming.

She knows. The hinting there was just so.. damn.. heavy-... handed.

I giggled when she says poppycock. In my defense I've been drinking.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Ah, the CD scam. I remember seeing that a ton a few years ago in the city but I haven't seen it as much lately.

It happened to me last year. Guy asks me if I'll take a CD, is just trying to get his name out there. I say sure, why not. He is all smiles and asks me my name, takes out a sharpie, and signs the CD case for me. He gives it to me and asks for $15.

I'm like, you didn't say I had to pay for it. He gets all sad, says he already wrote my name on it. Says he can't reuse it now. Asks if I'll at least make a donation. I give him $5 to end it.

But he was never intimidating or rude. Dude was so nice. Like, I was happy to have basically been taken for my pocket money. I decided to listen to the CD later and it was blank. Because of course it was!

The next day somebody tried to do it again. I said no thanks, I gave my money to the other guy. And he was like "but that doesn't help ME none!" and I almost felt bad. Like, aw, okay, sell me another blank CD.

Just happened to me tonight in Times Square. The script is still identical so I recognized it immediately. But I'll be damned if there isn't a part of me that doesn't want to help this "aspiring artist get his name out there."

I recently got a job in Hoboken that I have to travel for, and I go to both Boston and NJ/NY. I have been really impressed by how polite and nice people in both places are. (Maybe I'm going to the nice areas of Boston? Lol)

I joke with my girlfriend about where we'll see the obligatory fight break out. I've gone dozens of times and there's been a fight almost every single time. It's hilarious and we're totally desensitized to it now. We take a pleasant stroll through the commons or Cambridge or Paul Revere Mall and pass two guys on the ground just wailing on each other. Or sometimes the police are already there and they're yelling at each other while the police report is written. It's just part of the atmosphere!

 

[RustyNails]

that poll doesn't look right at all. I wonder how they came up with those numbers?

LOL. there it is.

Wildly oversampling conservative white voters.

2012 was 76% white, 13% african american, and 6% latino. No one in their right mind thinks the white vote is going to spike 10% while dropping the black and latino vote that badly.

Party ID is also off. PA was 45% democratic, 35% republican, 20% Independent/Other. This poll has democrats at 38, Independents at 27%, and republicans at 35%.

Liberals were 37%, Moderates 42, Conservatives 31%.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/PA/president/

Why even put out a poll with a scenario that off base?

But doesn't Uncle Pigeon warn us to not use exit poll data from the past to look at current polling?

 

[SexyFish]

Rachel knows something's coming.

She knows. The hinting there was just so.. damn.. heavy-... handed.

I feel like Fahrenthold has another tape. He's been dodgy on the subject. All speculation though.

 

[HylianTom]

Hmm can you give me a condensed version of what she said?

At the end of her segment - where the theme was "it's a difficult time to be a Trump supporter" - she ends it by saying that it is still "early yet" (stressing those words) regarding what we know about his past.

But the kicker, to me, was the look on her face when she said this. She looked like the cat that had eaten the canary.

(It's difficult to describe in words.)

 

[BigJonsson]

I giggled when she says poppycock. In my defense I've been drinking.

It's a good word

 

[Iolo]

That's right. Exit polling routinely overstates minority and youth turnout.

 

[StopMakingSense]

But doesn't Uncle Pigeon warn us to not use exit poll data from the past to look at current polling?

Party ID shouldn't be that close D v R either way.

 

[Manmademan]

Thanks for doing the leg work. I am more happy now.

I could tell immediately something was wrong- and it's always the same thing. Certain pollsters (Quinnipiac did this as well in PA, IIRC) are still operating under the assumption that 2008 and 2012 were some kind of abberation, minorities won't come out for clinton because she isn't black, and we'll see participation go back to 2000 level numbers.

it's bizarre, but I keep seeing it.

 

[Boke1879]

At the end of her segment - where the theme was "it's a difficult time to be a Trump supporter" - she ends it by saying that it is still "early yet" (stressing those words) regarding what we know about his past.

But the kicker, to me, was the look on her face when she said this. She looked like the cat that had eaten the canary.

(It's difficult to describe in words.)

Nah I totally get what you mean. Thing is Donald today at a rally said the same thing. He said "there are probably more tapes of me saying not nice things." He knows most is coming. Hell even on Friday many other journalists said there is worse out there.

 

[Bowdz]

I loled hard at Trump trying to say he'd keep bringing up Bill's past if Hillary tries to release any more tapes of him as if it were a threat. He brought up Bill's past as far back as spring and after the nothing burger that came from last night (beyond the utter disgrace of the spectacle), it seems like even more of a nothing burger than everyone had already predicted. If anything, the stunt last night will probably make Clinton more willing to drop the "family ending" oppo.

 

[Cerium]

It happened to me last year. Guy asks me if I'll take a CD, is just trying to get his name out there. I say sure, why not. He is all smiles and asks me my name, takes out a sharpie, and signs the CD case for me. He gives it to me and asks for $15.

I'm like, you didn't say I had to pay for it. He gets all sad, says he already wrote my name on it. Says he can't reuse it now. Asks if I'll at least make a donation. I give him $5 to end it.

But he was never intimidating or rude. Dude was so nice. Like, I was happy to have basically been taken for my pocket money. I decided to listen to the CD later and it was blank. Because of course it was!

The next day somebody tried to do it again. I said no thanks, I gave my money to the other guy. And he was like "but that doesn't help ME none!" and I almost felt bad. Like, aw, okay, sell me another blank CD.

Just happened to me tonight in Times Square. The script is still identical so I recognized it immediately. But I'll be damned if there isn't a part of me that doesn't want to help this "aspiring artist get his name out there."



I joke with my girlfriend about where we'll see the obligatory fight break out. I've gone dozens of times and there's been a fight almost every single time. It's hilarious and we're totally desensitized to it now. We take a pleasant stroll through the commons or Cambridge or Paul Revere Mall and pass two guys on the ground just wailing on each other. Or sometimes the police are already there and they're yelling at each other while the police report is written. It's just part of the atmosphere!

If you don't want to pay up just ignore them or start speaking a foreign language if you know any. I do the latter.

 

[Strimei]

Nah I totally get what you mean. Thing is Donald today at a rally said the same thing. He said "there are probably more tapes of me saying not nice things." He knows most is coming. Hell even on Friday many other journalists said there is worse out there.

He said similarly on Saturday too I believe, according to Ben Carson. He told him and others that there is more coming.

 

[HylianTom]

Nah I totally get what you mean. Thing is Donald today at a rally said the same thing. He said "there are probably more tapes of me saying not nice things." He knows most is coming. Hell even on Friday many other journalists said there is worse out there.

And I really should've mentioned:
she ended the whole segment on that "it's still early yet" statement. Like she was assuming that her audience is smart enough to figure-out that this was to be interpreted as a "To Be Continued.." cliffhanger.

 

[Manmademan]

But doesn't Uncle Pigeon warn us to not use exit poll data from the past to look at current polling?

Uncle Pigeon can say whatever he wants- there is no realistic scenario where white voters are 86% of the electorate in November, when they're only about 78% of the population. It's never that high in a presidential year, ever.

and that 78% figure doesn't take into account the white conservative population here is declining in the middle of the state. All of the growth is in the pittsburgh and philadelphia metro areas. 2016 will be LESS white and conservative than 2012- not ten points higher.

That's "put the crack pipe down" numbers.

 

[StopMakingSense]

I do think after Sunday's stunt the 'end your life' oppo stuff gets dumped. Probably not before the election. but at least at some point.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I loled hard at Trump trying to say he'd keep bringing up Bill's past if Hillary tries to release any more tapes of him as if it were a threat. He brought up Bill's past as far back as spring and after the nothing burger that came from last night (beyond the utter disgrace of the spectacle), it seems like even more of a nothing burger than everyone had already predicted. If anything, the stunt last night will probably make Clinton more willing to drop the "family ending" oppo.

I'd like to believe Hillary's hands would be clean of any "family ending" reveal, due to how kind of slimy it would be to take down the entire family. She shouldn't go anywhere near that one, and make sure the media releases it without her.

 

[Iolo]

Eh, that same pollster had a poll after the DNC with Hillary up 10 with similar demographics. I wouldn't bother unskewing it, she's still winning after all.

... Well it was 81 % white, 10% black, so I guess it was different. But who cares

 

[Boke1879]

He said similarly on Saturday too I believe, according to Ben Carson. He told him and others that there is more coming.

He knows and he doesn't care. He knows his base doesn't care so he'll keep playing to them.

 

[RustyNails]

Stephen Colbert kills it lol

He needs to do more of these.

 

[Plinko]

So?

TBD if tape has permanent effects on the Senate races.

Nothing against you posting this. Every poll recently has had people asking if it was pre- or post-tape, so I wanted to get it out of the way. Thanks for posting.

 

[RastaMentality]

Also Ana saying Trump needs to go write the Art of Groping if he wants to be compared to 50 Shades - https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/785647340019453953/video/1

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

I do think after Sunday's stunt the 'end your life' oppo stuff gets dumped. Probably not before the election. but at least at some point.

I would say in a week or two at least.

 

[whyamihere]

(It's one poll, settle down)

 

[Boke1879]

LMAOO I'm still cracking up about whatever Trump was doing to that chair yesterday

 

[Iolo]

Also Ana saying Trump needs to go write the Art of Groping if he wants to be compared to 50 Shades - https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/785647340019453953/video/1

Should be The Art of the Feel

 

[Aaron Strife]

25% cell, 75% landline

Also, no

Oh I saw someone else say it was landline only nvm

 

[jiggle]

Isnt the life ending oppo source from GAF?
Is he legit?

 

[HanShotFirst]

Honestly, I'm surprised Trump didn't think Aleppo is some kind of over the counter drug.

#exceededexpectations #trumpwin

 

[Link]

I want more polls! Especially national ones to confirm the NBC/WSJ poll wasn't an outlier.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Isnt the life ending oppo source from GAF?
Is he legit?

Cesare Borgia is not legit. I can confirm he's just an alt of benji that suffers from dissociative personality disorder.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Have we had any other polls today? Obviously this PA poll signifies our house of cards will imminently collapse and President Donald is going to no-scope my family straight to Hell. But how we looking otherwise?

 

[kevin1025]

I do think after Sunday's stunt the 'end your life' oppo stuff gets dumped. Probably not before the election. but at least at some point.

Best to do it before the election, if it exists. It would be cathartic with what he's put everyone through in his lifetime.

 

[Manmademan]

Eh, that same pollster had a poll after the DNC with Hillary up 10 with similar demographics. I wouldn't bother unskewing it, she's still winning after all.

... Well it was 81 % white, 10% black, so I guess it was different. But who cares

That's a pretty big difference. 81-10 isn't all that likely, but it's possible if exit poll data in 2012 was off.

86-8 is "absolutely not" territory.

25% cell, 75% landline

Also, no

oh, yeah. trash this one. Who does this?

 

[BrokenFiction]

Kurt Eichenwald ‏@kurteichenwald 4m4 minutes ago
I have written some really disturbing stories about Donald Trump. The one that is minutes away is even leaving my mouth agape.

 

[Iolo]

Cesare Borgia is not legit. I can confirm he's just an alt of benji that suffers from dissociative personality disorder.

As Milk's alt I can also confirm this.

 

[Boke1879]

To be fair Cesare did say he wasn't sure if Clinton would go that far and release the worst thing she has on Trump.

 

[Tamanon]

I love Malcolm Nance. He did a few fascinating interviews with the Spycast about terrorism beyond just the punditry. Good author too.

 

[jiggle]

Cesare Borgia is not legit. I can confirm he's just an alt of benji that suffers from dissociative personality disorder.

So he's not mook then
Sad

 

[Zukkoyaki]

To be fair Cesare did say he wasn't sure if Clinton would go that far and release the worst thing she has on Trump.

So it's a... Trump... Card?