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[Bowdz]

So if the Democrats are fortunate enough to win the House, what should the legislative priorities be? I really hope that Schumer doesn't fuck around and enacts some sensible filibuster reform right out of the gate to blunt the insanity that we saw in 2010. That being noted, here is how I group various pieces of legislation that the Democrats should pass.

In sheer political terms, I view Clinton's possible legislative agenda from two lenses: good policy and appealing to the base. I think that there is a tremendous amount of overlap between the two, but future political calculus should be a concern out of the gate IMO. In terms of appealing to the base, here are the policies that I see being passed that will get approval from various constituencies that will be crucial for Clinton's coalition being engaged in future elections:

- Immigration reform
- Criminal justice reform
- College affordability
- Public option
- Tax reform
- Financial regulations
- Climate change proposals like cap and trade or a carbon tax
- Equal pay for women

Beyond those, I view various policies to be essential for any next president to pass. They don't necessarily appeal to any one constituency, but are just good policy:

- Infrastructure bill
- Campaign finance
- Tax reform
- Federal election laws like non-partisan districting or federal standards for early voting and registration
- Supreme Court nominations (I assume that this will be order number one regardless of anything else)

So my question to you PoliGAF is, if we are fortunate enough to take the reigns of government, what does the timeline look like for passing legislation over the following two years? Is it more important to play to the base right out of the gate or to get essential government legislation done first?

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Wait, so she is using his own offensive statements in her ads? Ok, I guess I can get why Fox News sees them as offensive. When a GOP candidate says them in a GOP ad, the RNC, a debate, or rally, its ok. However, when played through the filter of a DEM ad its offensive, like the red tinted glasses have come off to reveal what everyone else can see/hear.

What an interesting observation.

It harkens back to the days where white people could say deplorable shit to each other and it was held in confidence from the minorities. Using Trump quotes in public is, in the minds of conservatives, like going up to a black coworker and telling them, "Hey, the other day when I went to the bar with Donald, he called you a nigger."

It's true! But white people gotta stick together, man. Even if it's information you should probably have (like the black coworker being the dude who's about to interview Donald for a promotion!).

 

[nature boy]

I may be reading it wrong but that poll seems to be from mid-September

Data was indeed collected in Mid-September (peak of bedwetting), but they're using a different model so it's a bit apples to oranges vs normal polls.

They did accurately predict the 2012 election, and part of the people who did the 2012 election are now doing the infamous USC/Latimes dopey tracker.

 

[Grief.exe]

Sorry to bring the hopium down a bit, but one thing that worries me about the election is the consistent narrative of election fraud supported by far right media organizations and Donald .

This especially worries me since Trump is playing up this narrative so much to his enthusiastic supporters as there is no other way that his narcissistic brain could to accept his big league loss other than election fraud.
These same supporters have also had their collective minds poisoned the past 20 years by Fox News, alt-right media, et al.
Donald Trump is actively encouraging people to stand around polling stations in minority areas to 'watch for fraud.'
To add legitimacy to this issue, this same group of people is considered the number one threat to US security by the FBI and local law enforcement, not foreign terrorists.
In person voting fraud is negligible.

Scary stuff.

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/785949407090921472

 

[sazzy]

i love the 538 snake

poll only

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Data was indeed collected in Mid-September (peak of bedwetting), but they're using a different model so it's a bit apples to oranges vs normal polls.

They did accurately predict the 2012 election, and part of the people who did the 2012 election are now doing the infamous USC/Latimes dopey tracker.

Gotcha, thanks!

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Sorry to bring the hopium down a bit, but one thing that worries me about the election is the consistent narrative of election fraud supported by far right media organizations and Donald .

This especially worries me since Trump is playing up this narrative so much to his enthusiastic supporters as there is no other way that his narcissistic brain could to accept his big league loss other than election fraud.
These same supporters have also had their mind poisoned the past 20 years by Fox News, alt-right media, et al.
Donald Trump is actively encouraging people to go stand around polling locations to 'watch for fraud,' but in reality they will likely intimidate minorities.
To add legitimacy to this issue, this same group of people is considered the number one threat to US security by the FBI and local law enforcement.

Scary stuff.

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/785949407090921472

This is unavoidable with what their pushing, but hopefully the gap should stay wide enough so it doesn't gain mainstream traction.

But Trump has guaranteed that a faction of American's will never consider her presidency legitimate. It's unavoidable now, and will lead to very bad things in the short term.

 

[StoOgE]

Posted this article about "Friends of Bill" last night, but maybe people weren't awake. Wanted to see if anyone who knew about USA disaster relief had any thoughts about this.

Seems like the Clinton state department was skipping over some sort of regular process in favor of speed to try and save lives, but the third paragraph mentions a donation of medical supplies to the US government. Not sure why you need to be known to the Clinton Foundation to donate those.

Also, a consequence of this action in general is that there was seemingly a benefit for Friends of Bill to get government contracts after the earthquake was over. I guess the benefit could be seen as incidental rather than intentionally corrupt, but still a weird thing to have happen when you consider Hillary's position at the time.

This was very likely more to do with who the Clinton Foundation already had vetted and was working with in Haiti. They are one of the largest active non-profits in the country.

In a crisis it could very well have been the state department trying to flag people that were already trusted resources capable of delivering humanitarian aide to the region. Haiti is as you can imagine an extremely corrupt nation, and in the hours after a disaster such as this you want to minimize the funds going to corrupt individuals or someone who may not know the proper procedure to deal with the state department or have the experience actually delivering aide in the area.

Even the donation of energy equipment which seems benign enough could have been a logistical nightmare if the person offering them was in a location that made them difficult to get to, and anyone who claims to have the ability to distribute food (even if well intentioned) who gets in over their head and time and resources are lost.

The other reading of this (that the RNC wants to push) is that in the hours following a disaster that killed thousands of people in a nation the Clintons have dedicated decades to rebuilding that a non-profit and the state department lurched into action to callously determine the best way for friends of Bill Clinton and the evil vile Clinton's to maximize profits in rebuilding the country. There are better ways for the Clinton's to make money than running a not for profit that might slowly funnel money to "friends" in Haiti.

 

[Amir0x]

Grief.exe:

These pussies aint gonna do shit but make panicked and outraged videos on youtube about the loss outside of a few isolated incidents.

They can question the legitimacy, but this election won't be close. Trump can whine and his ppl can call fraud and Trump can refuse to concede. No one will care.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I feel pretty confident at this point it'll be Pence giving the concession. Donald will live on in defiance because it builds his brand.

 

[Bowdz]

Yeah, I don't think many elected Republicans will go up to bat for Trump if he loses in a blowout (which may be yet another point of division between the Trump wing of the party and the establishment).

 

[AntraxSuicide]

So my question to you PoliGAF is, if we are fortunate enough to take the reigns of government, what does the timeline look like for passing legislation over the following two years? Is it more important to play to the base right out of the gate or to get essential government legislation done first?

Appeal to the base, and in fact, I'd do this by finding vulnerable 2018 candidates and letting them draft the legislation. Make sure that it's good and well-liked in their districts/states, and show off how effective they are. Don't run from Hillary like the Dems did from Obama; that was clearly a mistake, and cost us 2010 in a big way (would've still lost but not as badly).

To that end, I might go for infrastructure and then some education bills. Make sure you target technical schools as well; people didn't like it in my circle (academia), but Rubio's line of "We need more welders and less philosophers!" was a great phrase. Do those things to quickly get people into these programs, and make sure that they know it's because of their elected Democratic Rep/Senator, and Hillary Clinton.

i love the 538 snake

poll only

Need some Georgia polls! No way is it further red than Arizona.

 

[HylianTom]

Jeb's ad earlier this year had a chryon saying that Trump concedes on Twitter.. I could see that happening.

 

[kadotsu]

Yup there will be a lot gang stalking like voter fraud videos but no one will care because this will be a landslide on the presidential side. On the House/Senate side the deplorables won't care because that is "the establishment". My hope is that the poison continues to spread into the midterms where unelectable candidates will win primaries.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Sorry to bring the hopium down a bit, but one thing that worries me about the election is the consistent narrative of election fraud supported by far right media organizations and Donald .

This especially worries me since Trump is playing up this narrative so much to his enthusiastic supporters as there is no other way that his narcissistic brain could to accept his big league loss other than election fraud.
These same supporters have also had their collective minds poisoned the past 20 years by Fox News, alt-right media, et al.
Donald Trump is actively encouraging people to stand around polling stations in minority areas to 'watch for fraud.'
To add legitimacy to this issue, this same group of people is considered the number one threat to US security by the FBI and local law enforcement, not foreign terrorists.
In person voting fraud is negligible.

Scary stuff.

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/785949407090921472

If you're worried about people thinking the election was "rigged" afterwards, honestly, whogivesashit.gif. It won't be rigged. It's not something the media will seriously entertain. And people cry "fraud" every year. (If we're being honest, even we did in 2004.)

If you're worried about dead-enders intimidating people at the polls, it's despicable, yes. And I doubt there will be zero incidents on election day, someone will try something shitty somewhere. But as to it broadly or measurably affecting the election, nah. First, the vast majority of idiots are all talk with something like that. Second, half-way decent security at polling places will take care of a lot. Third, how many minorities do you imagine would actually be intimidated out of voting by a shitbag "poll-watcher".

Real voter disenfranchisement happens through laws.

 

[hipsterpants]

Sorry to bring the hopium down a bit, but one thing that worries me about the election is the consistent narrative of election fraud supported by far right media organizations and Donald .

This especially worries me since Trump is playing up this narrative so much to his enthusiastic supporters as there is no other way that his narcissistic brain could to accept his big league loss other than election fraud.
These same supporters have also had their collective minds poisoned the past 20 years by Fox News, alt-right media, et al.
Donald Trump is actively encouraging people to stand around polling stations in minority areas to 'watch for fraud.'
To add legitimacy to this issue, this same group of people is considered the number one threat to US security by the FBI and local law enforcement, not foreign terrorists.
In person voting fraud is negligible.

Scary stuff.

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/785949407090921472

I understand the fear but it's also incredibly likely that most of these people are the same ones that shit themselves if they see more than 2 black men walking in their general direction. They're the literal embodiment of that meme image of a dude walking down the street only to get embarrassed by a friendly black man so they then go on /pol/ and post how black people are the worst thing ever.

 

[Bowdz]

Appeal to the base, and in fact, I'd do this by finding vulnerable 2018 candidates and letting them draft the legislation. Make sure that it's good and well-liked in their districts/states, and show off how effective they are. Don't run from Hillary like the Dems did from Obama; that was clearly a mistake, and cost us 2010 in a big way (would've still lost but not as badly).

To that end, I might go for infrastructure and then some education bills. Make sure you target technical schools as well; people didn't like it in my circle (academia), but Rubio's line of "We need more welders and less philosophers!" was a great phrase. Do those things to quickly get people into these programs, and make sure that they know it's because of their elected Democratic Rep/Senator, and Hillary Clinton.



Need some Georgia polls! No way is it further red than Arizona.

Excellent point. I've been thinking about how powerful it'd be to have Manchin, Brown, and McCaskill to draft the infrastructure bill.

 

[Slayven]

2017 will be interesting

New president

Maybe new house and Senate

New judges

New Nintendo console for people not to buy

 

[B-Dubs]

i love the 538 snake

poll only

I want Georgia and Texas!

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

What does it mean to "account" for these things? How does a model identify movement associated with a short term outrage versus a long term, election changing scandal? Wouldn't "ranking" movement based on subjective measures like this be punditry?

Opinion is predictable.

If you look at where the race is now va where we started were not all that far off

 

[jtb]

Trump is too cheap to waste his money on legal challenges to challenge the election's results -- particularly if it's a humiliating landslide, which we're seemingly heading to. It would just look absurd and rub salt in the wound. The RNC won't waste its time or money.

His base will consider it illegitimate... which would make it exactly the same as the previous eight years. The further they dig -- and the longer the GOP refuses to properly reckon with the uncontrollable monster it's created -- the more they make it impossible to win national elections.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Missouri poll coming from Monmouth in like 20 minutes. Nate Cohn called it a shock poll. Probably shows Kander in the lead.

 

[KHarvey16]

Opinion is predictable.

If you look at where the race is now va where we started were not all that far off

But that isn't empirical or objectively determined using a model. If you want a model to discriminate, a person has to decide what movement matters and what movement doesn't.

 

[hipsterpants]

Missouri poll coming from Monmouth in like 20 minutes. Nate Cohn called it a shock poll. Probably shows Kander in the lead.

Koster +20

 

[Bowdz]

Missouri poll coming from Monmouth in like 20 minutes. Nate Cohn called it a shock poll. Probably shows Kander in the lead.

Come on Kander! I'm thinking about making a donation dump for Kander, Ross, and Murphy (lol).

 

[Chezzymann]

I can't wait to laugh at all the trump supporters I know saying "silent majority my ass!" Once Clinton wins in a landslide

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Trump is too cheap to waste his money on legal challenges to challenge the election's results -- particularly if it's a humiliating landslide, which we're seemingly heading to. It would just look absurd and rub salt in the wound. The RNC won't waste its time or money.

His base will consider it illegitimate... which would make it exactly the same as the previous eight years. The further they dig -- and the longer the GOP refuses to properly reckon with the uncontrollable monster it's created -- the more they make it impossible to win national elections.

The stupidest part to all of this election fraud business is that it's so fucking easy to uncover! If there actually was rampant election fraud, the Koch brothers would post a 10 million dollar reward for any poll station worker who came forward with proof.

But they don't, because it's stupid!

But that isn't empirical or objectively determined using a model. If you want a model to discriminate, a person has to decide what movement matters and what movement doesn't.

Yeah, I'll actually defend the Bronze on this one. His model has been shitty due to weird volatility for months (even though this race has been stabler than 2012, which he called early and never wavered on), but this tape for Trump has been a legitimate political nuke. It's been a while since something like this hurt a candidate so severely.

The reason isn't even really the tape itself, but a shit ton of Republicans waiting for literally any reason to get off the ride. But to account for that, you'd need to fall back on punditry, and that's not something that should go near a statistical model (as Bronze knows very well).

 

[Zackat]

2017 will be interesting

New president

Maybe new house and Senate

New judges

New Nintendo console for people not to buy

You don't want a pseudo handheld in 2017?

For shame.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Missouri poll coming from Monmouth in like 20 minutes. Nate Cohn called it a shock poll. Probably shows Kander in the lead.

I don't think that would be shocking at all. Kander has been gaining significant momentum here lately in large part because he's actually, you know, campaigning. Visiting large worker unions in KC, meeting with minority leaders and church groups in St. Louis, last week he visited the University of Missouri during the campus student registration events. He's all over the place! Also seeing way more anti-Blunt ads than pro Blunt ads. I think the race has entered legit DEAD-HEAT territory.

 

[HylianTom]

2017 will be interesting

New president

Maybe new house and Senate

New judges

New Nintendo console for people not to buy

As soon as fallout from the election dies down, I'm going to go deep into OMGOMGOMGZELDAOMG mode.

And I'll probably watch non-political TV programming again. A run through my Kids in the Hall box set is loooong overdue.

 

[Grief.exe]

Reminder

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten 18h18 hours ago

Correlation of where the polls are right now and the final result of the election since 1952? 0.96...

If you're worried about people thinking the election was "rigged" afterwards, honestly, whogivesashit.gif. It won't be rigged. It's not something the media will seriously entertain. And people cry "fraud" every year. (If we're being honest, even we did in 2004.)

If you're worried about dead-enders intimidating people at the polls, it's despicable, yes. And I doubt there will be zero incidents on election day, someone will try something shitty somewhere. But as to it broadly or measurably affecting the election, nah. First, the vast majority of idiots are all talk with something like that. Second, half-way decent security at polling places will take care of a lot. Third, how many minorities do you imagine would actually be intimidated out of voting by a shitbag "poll-watcher".

Real voter disenfranchisement happens through laws.

Luckily the State Supreme Courts shut down most of the laws that infringe on voting rights targeting minorities.

 

[Paskil]

Again, in Wisconsin at least, as a chief inspector at a polling place, I dictate what happens and who is allowed to monitor, if anyone. If we do have any monitors (we didn't the last three elections), I will put a blue tape box down on the floor. Monitors are to stand there quietly and not interact with incoming voters or poll workers. Monitors are only supposed to challenge people that they know are ineligible, not because they think or feel like someone is ineligible.

State law establishes a very straightforward step-by-step process to a voter challenge. I have a feeling that anyone trying to come in with bullshit challenges won't even finish the challenge because as a public official, they are being attested by me under oath that their responses are true.

If. IF anyone shows up here to monitor, they will get one warning (depending on the offense) and if they fuck around, they will be asked to leave immediately. Failure to leave will result in the police coming to arrest them.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Koster +20

Wouldn't be surprising.

Greitens was doomed from the get-go but after the NRA endorsed the democratic candidate over him he is straight fucked. I saw him during the governor primaries and it was obvious he was a complete moron. Glad everyone else seems to be noticing as well. I mean, how shitty of a republican candidate do you have to be for the NRA to not back you?!

 

[Bowdz]

Does anyone have a good list of the closest Congressional races that are worth donating to?

 

[Random17]

Polls plus is above 80% for the first time, including even after the DNC.

Now cast is 90+.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Does anyone have a good list of the closest Congressional races that are worth donating to?

Just let Priorities figure it out.

 

[Fragamemnon]

For what it is worth in my own personal experience poll volunteers and officials don't put up with any nonsense at their polling locations on election day. They tell you the rules and if you break them repeatedly (they'll remind you sternly the first time) they will ask you to leave. If you don't leave the cops will then ask-and make-you leave.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't think that would be shocking at all. Kander has been gaining significant momentum here lately in large part because he's actually, you know, campaigning. Visiting large worker unions in KC, meeting with minority leaders and church groups in St. Louis, last week he visited the University of Missouri during the campus student registration events. He's all over the place! Also seeing way more anti-Blunt ads than pro Blunt ads. I think the race has entered legit DEAD-HEAT territory.

Yeah, that's what makes me think it might be a Clinton lead if it's truly shocking, although Kander hasn't led yet in a public poll to my knowledge (besides some junk Emerson poll with him up 2).

A big Kander lead (more than 5 points) would also be somewhat surprising.

I really have to give credit to Kander for being able to stand out and build his own political brand in a year like 2016. Most political candidates seem anchored to the presidential nominee, but not Kander. It reminds me a little of how Obama in 2004 was able to emerge as a political superstar even when the national picture wasn't very rosy for Democrats, although just about everything about their situations is totally different.

 

[Amir0x]

Wouldn't be surprising.

Greitens was doomed from the get-go but after the NRA endorsed the democratic candidate over him he is straight fucked. I saw him during the governor primaries and it was obvious he was a complete moron. Glad everyone else seems to be noticing as well. I mean, how shitty of a republican candidate do you have to be for the NRA to not back you?!

ew that almost makes me want to like Greitens. Fuck the NRA.

 

[Slurpy2k20]

This was very likely more to do with who the Clinton Foundation already had vetted and was working with in Haiti. They are one of the largest active non-profits in the country.

In a crisis it could very well have been the state department trying to flag people that were already trusted resources capable of delivering humanitarian aide to the region. Haiti is as you can imagine an extremely corrupt nation, and in the hours after a disaster such as this you want to minimize the funds going to corrupt individuals or someone who may not know the proper procedure to deal with the state department or have the experience actually delivering aide in the area.

Even the donation of energy equipment which seems benign enough could have been a logistical nightmare if the person offering them was in a location that made them difficult to get to, and anyone who claims to have the ability to distribute food (even if well intentioned) who gets in over their head and time and resources are lost.

The other reading of this (that the RNC wants to push) is that in the hours following a disaster that killed thousands of people in a nation the Clintons have dedicated decades to rebuilding that a non-profit and the state department lurched into action to callously determine the best way for friends of Bill Clinton and the evil vile Clinton's to maximize profits in rebuilding the country. There are better ways for the Clinton's to make money than running a not for profit that might slowly funnel money to "friends" in Haiti.

And this is the problem right there. The defence can't be distilled into a 3 second sound bite. Even if there was absolutely NOTHING shady or wrong with the actions taken, attacking it is much easier than defending it, because that requires an attention span larger than that of a gnat and an actual desire for facts and objectivity.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Wow, this video of people running to early vote at dawn in Cleveland. Oh my god.

https://twitter.com/jaymplant/status/786164542728507392

That's damn good.

 

[Supast4r]

This is an incredible ad. Just wow.

That ad was beautiful. What Bams speach was that?

 

[Bowdz]

That ad was beautiful. What Bams speach was that?

The recent Congressional Black Caucus Foundation speech IIRC.

 

[thefro]

How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

God Nate versus the USC/LA Times poll.

There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election.

He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump.

And he has been held up as proof by conservatives — including outlets like Breitbart News and The New York Post — that Mr. Trump is excelling among black voters. He has even played a modest role in shifting entire polling aggregates, like the Real Clear Politics average, toward Mr. Trump.

How? He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the biggest polling outlier of the presidential campaign. Despite falling behind by double digits in some national surveys, Mr. Trump has generally led in the U.S.C./LAT poll. He held the lead for a full month until Wednesday, when Mrs. Clinton took a nominal lead.

Our Trump-supporting friend in Illinois is a surprisingly big part of the reason. In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.

Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.

He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks.

 

[Beer Monkey]

People waited overnight in Cincinnati. As always, racists were waiting for WCPO to post on FB about it.

 

[RustyNails]

Monmouth Missoura Poll prediction

H +4
Kander +2

 

[Emarv]

That ad was beautiful. What Bams speach was that?

Congressional Black Caucus last month.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nKbY9wONBeI

 

[Teggy]

Deep dive by Nate Cohn into the USC poll and how there is one 19 year-old black Trump supporter who has particularly skewed it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/u...istorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1

edit: DOH!

 

[Aaron Strife]

Monmouth Missoura Poll prediction

H +4
Kander +2

Oh boo. I didn't see prediction at first and got excited.

Oh well. I'd flip those two personally.

 

[Plinko]

People waited overnight in Cincinnati. As always, racists were waiting for WCPO to post on FB about it.

That second post doesn't make any logical sense whatsoever. I know that applies to all of it, but that 2nd one jumped out at me. How is this "fixing" the election?