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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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G

Grief.exe

Member
CtHtc3fXEAAcQEP.jpg
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
Man, the media has been raking Matt Drudge over the coals this morning. For good reason too. Fuck that guy and his ignorance.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Wolfgunblood Garopa said:
"Nobody took him seriously"

That seems to be the truth, throughout his career. Even bankers thought he was an idiot and only allowed him to survive financially because he was a good self promoter. He was considered useless otherwise.

Conservatives are such easy marks.
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Actually not in the beginning, his daddy moved heaven and hell too keep him afloat
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
A bomb?

That's nothing.

If anything it made me think less of Letterman. Ignores his racism on the 80s and birtherism (he only cares now hes running for president and can hurt Letterman)

Plus he reads and takes David Brooks seriously
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Letterman reminds me of a lot of older white Midwesterners I know: tempermentally conservative, and actually would probably prefer to vote Republican, but who just keep getting disgusted by the actual Republicans who run. This was the story of my grandparents (life-long Ohio Republicans who never voted GOP again after Watergate) and my in-laws (repulsed by the crassness of Bush and Trump, and actually kind of like Obama, but really wish Kasich had won since they find the Clintons kind of gross). When I was visiting Ohio this summer I must have seen that anti-Trump ad focusing on his insults a million times. It has got to be an effective line of attack there.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
TrashNate's now-cast is in line with Big Wang, Nate's model has its usual hyper-reactvity to but the strike zone still looks like some kind of OH/IA split, otherwise a complete carry (+NC) of Barry 2012

4Nsmyy8.png
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Slayven said:
How did Nate Silver go from chosen one to Greedo?
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His models capture the state of the race at a point in time, but even his polls and polls-plus outcome models seem to twist in the wind with short-term shifts in polling. So it's either 'omg we're going to win 600+ EV!!111' or 'omg let's have a mad gang bedwetting' with no real points in between.

Looking back at the macro of this entire campaign:

- One Democract that more or less led all the way through the primary and won the primary.
- One Republican that had a solid base while the rest of the GOP couldn't decide on their guy. Surprise! The guy with the solid base won.
- The democrat has basically led the republican since the GE season started and will beat the Republican.

The above is true and it's boring. I want models (like Sam Wang's) that capture embrace that boredom, not models that are hyper-reactive. Nate's model feels like it was built to work with an order or magnitude more inputs and have those inputs be of general higher quality.

Which is ironic considering Rick Scott not extending the voter registration deadline looks to impact Republicans more than Democrats.
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Dems were just going to run up that number more. GOP GOTV efforts nationwide (except maybe in exceptionally organized states like IA) are a mess. The GOP hasn't even had to work with harder to register and turn out voters, but now they have to (NCWs), and the results are pretty predictable.
 
R

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
Donald Trump Makes History With Zero Major Newspaper Endorsements

With just a little over a month until election day, Donald Trump has racked up zero major newspaper endorsements, a first for any major party nominee in American history.

While newspaper endorsements don’t necessarily change voters’ minds, this year’s barrage of anti-Trump endorsements could actually move the needle come November, experts say.

“It’s significant,” Jack Pitney, professor of government at California’s Claremont McKenna College, told TheWrap. “The cumulative effect of all these defections could have an impact on moderate Republicans.”


Some conservative papers, which have endorsed Republicans for decades, are now breaking with tradition to endorse Hillary Clinton or, at the very least, urge their readers not to vote for Trump.

Several have taken a stand even at the expense of losing subscribers at a time when newspapers are barely staying afloat. Some papers have received death threats.

But for a growing number of newspaper editorial boards, staying on the sidelines is no longer an option.
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S

Slayven

Member
Basileus777 said:
He got his own website and had to produce regular content to keep it alive.
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Zukkoyaki said:
His website got bought by ESPN and now is under extreme pressure to drive clicks and ad revenue.
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Keeping the lights on and having to answer to people is a motherfucker
Fragamemnon said:
His models capture the state of the race at a point in time, but even his polls and polls-plus outcome models seem to twist in the wind with short-term shifts in polling. So it's either 'omg we're going to win 600+ EV!!111' or 'omg let's have a mad gang bedwetting' with no real points in between.

Looking back at the macro of this entire campaign:

- One Democract that more or less led all the way through the primary and won the primary.
- One Republican that had a solid base while the rest of the GOP couldn't decide on their guy. Surprise! The guy with the solid base won.
- The democrat has basically led the republican since the GE season started and will beat the Republican.

The above is true and it's boring. I want models (like Sam Wang's) that capture embrace that boredom, not models that are hyper-reactive. Nate's model feels like it was built to work with an order or magnitude more inputs and have those inputs be of general higher quality.
Click to expand...
So he is the shock jock of polling?
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
In statistics, you live and die by your arguments, and Silver's aren't great. Yes, that includes now when he's calling for a landslide. Silver's model isn't particularly useful if it looks like a Tilt-a-Whirl.

Randolph Freelander said:
How many registrations did Republicans submit in their hearts, though?

Alternate take: thus begins the rigging.
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My favorite rigging story will always be the idea that Romney was cheated because he got zero votes in some districts. I get the argument on its face (that's a weird result if you're a Republican), but it's so easy to prove! Find literally one voter in that district that voted Romney. One! Put up some fliers that say "Did you vote Republican? Your vote may not have counted!" and you'd have proof.
 
C

CCS

Banned
StoOgE said:
I worked at FINRA for a while in Market Regulation in the US. The people who work at regulators come in four varieties:

1) The real true believers who think they are Elliott Ness taking out the mob and are way too hardcore.

2) Those too stupid to ever get a job paying more money at a private firm

3) Those too lazy to ever get a job paying more money at a private firm

4) Those putting in 2-3 years on their resume to get more money at a private firm.

I was at Deutsche and Goldman in Regulatory management, but in both instances 90% of the work for EMEA was handled in those regional offices. I was technically in charge of the London office, but the head of that department was super good so she handled most of the actual dealings. European regulators seemed to fall a bit harder into category 1 than they did int he US.
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Funnily enough that's not what a lot of the people here are like, although a lot do flit back and forth between the Bank and the private sector all the time :p (Bank of England btw)

Also, seems to me that the Europeans are crazy strict and the Americans crazy lax :p
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Slayven said:
So he is the shock jock of polling?
Click to expand...

I don't think so, it's just that his model (that he believes in, and would probably work really well in ideal circumstances) does comical things with the data he's working with. He needs to step back and change the way he uses data to better reflect that A) half of it is pure trash and B) there's not enough frequency of inputs to do what he's trying to do.

The problem is that this would make his models boring. That's fine because his core content team is fabulous now and can stand on their own.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Stooge, that's sort of what I seen, although I'm more on the advisers act side, less broker-dealer stuff.

Cool to know that there are other people with some awareness of the industry, feel like it gets painted with an insanely broad brush (as most things tend to do) in political debate.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
First off those Florida numbers are insane. No wonder Scott doesn't want to extend the deadline.

Also guys i wouldn't worry too much. Barring any major scandal or Clinton losing her cool in the debate I think we got this.

Donald has to do far more than she does in this debate to turn it around and just showing up and being calm isn't going to cut it. This man had crutch of lowered expectations in the first debate and he fucking blew it.

He held a mock/fake ass townhall in a friendly setting and managed to talk about polls, debate commission and John King. This man has showed more times than not he can't hold it together. I can't wait to see what happens when he gets a question that he feels is attacking him.
 
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