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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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O

Officerrob

Banned
Obama Administration is calling out the Russian government for hacking, saying they are "confident" Russian government is behind this. Says specifically hacks are intended to interfere with the election
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Officerrob said:
Obama Administration is calling out the Russian government for hacking, saying they are "confident" Russian government is behind this. Says specifically hacks are intended to interfere with the election
Click to expand...

Water is wet. Trump is in Putin's pocket. I hope they rip him to shreds November 9th.
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
Iolo said:
Without looking, maybe because not much recent polling in NH except for one poll from Suffolk with Ayotte up 6
Click to expand...

That seems to be true, but even the ones from the 20s of September all have Ayotte up. Wake up, New Hampshire!

And Pennsylvania!

Get out dat vote!
 
T

tuffy

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
Anyone thinking that HRC might actually overperform the polls at this point or that the polls will shift even more her way?
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Given the difference in campaign structures and ground game, I've felt certain Clinton would significantly outperform polls come election time. So even when the polls were tight, the race was never as close as it appeared.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
whyamihere said:
Well. Murphy is toast, evidence #498757349.
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Patrick Murphy focusing on Rubio's voting record instead of the amount of dark money that Rubio has taken or Rubio supporting a candidate who thinks Cubans can't be religious shows that the Florida Dem party is scrub-tier and should be burned to the ground and that Murphy should never be allowed to run for any office (such as dog catcher) again.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
Anyone thinking that HRC might actually overperform the polls at this point or that the polls will shift even more her way?
Click to expand...

I think Trump has a pretty structurally solid 45% or so floor that he won't go under, and third parties generally will get 3% of the vote. 52-45 or 52-46 isn't all that unlikely though at the current trajectory.

It's hard to get a read on what happens downballot since it's not clear if voters hold Republicans responsible for Trump or not. I certainly feel that there's a number of Republicans that feel completely their party got cheated by Trump and don't hold their senators and representatives responsible for Trump (even if they enable him).
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Doc Holliday said:
I thought she would go there, but I figured she would do it in November to minimize criticisms before the election.
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Seems likely she's doing it now to provoke him in the debate. It is a lovely thought, Donald confusedly ranting about nukes in a town hall setting. That really would seal the deal.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
I think Trump has a pretty structurally solid 45% or so floor that he won't go under, and third parties generally will get 3% of the vote. 52-45 or 52-46 isn't all that unlikely though at the current trajectory.

It's hard to get a read on what happens downballot since it's not clear if voters hold Republicans responsible for Trump or not. I certainly feel that there's a number of Republicans that feel completely their party got cheated by Trump and don't hold their senators and representatives responsible for Trump (even if they enable him).
Click to expand...

At this point, it feels like he'd be quite lucky to hit 45%.
 
P

Piecake

Member
The Philippines’ president has heaped abuse on the United States for weeks, but now Rodrigo Duterte is backing up his words with action. His defense minister said Friday the Philippines has suspended joint naval patrols with the United States in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

The joint naval patrols, launched this year, were designed to send an important symbolic message to counter China’s aggressive territorial claims and island-building in the strategic waterway. American and Philippine naval ships have conducted three patrols since March, the most recent in July, Pentagon spokesman Cmdr. Gary Ross said.

The defense minister also said his government wanted to expel “in the near future” the roughly 100 U.S. special operations forces stationed in the southern Philippines. The American troops help local forces track Islamist militants from the Abu Sayyaf group, and the Pentagon has held up the mission as a low-cost, light footprint success. But Lorenzana indicated the U.S. forces would be asked to leave as soon as Philippine army troops could be trained to use surveillance drones.

Until Duterte came to power on June 30, the Philippines had appealed to the United States to take on a larger military presence in the region and to provide more hardware and radar to prevent China from imposing its will in the South China Sea.
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http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/07/first-cracks-appear-in-the-u-s-alliance-with-the-philippines/

Duterte is a fucking moron. He gets pissy that the US thinks that his vigilanti murders are murder, and throws a hissy fit. This should show people that he puts his own interest and feelings above the interests of the Philippines, but I don't any of his supporters are going to see it that way.

I sure hope the Philippines enjoys China taking over their territorial water claims
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
marco roboto just had too much money. It's OK to lose some guys.

At this point, it feels like he'd be quite lucky to hit 45%.
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Ehh I think this is a pretty safe floor if you stick third parties at 2-3%.

edit: Duerte is a complete idiot. The US and Phillipines diplomatic corps basically spends all of their time trying to make sense of the garbage coming out of his mouth and reassuring that he doesn't really mean what he says (note: Duerte, unlike Trump, often walks back his worst stuff somewhat soon after saying it). That country needs another election ASAP.
 
B

BronzeWolf

Banned
Piecake said:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/07/first-cracks-appear-in-the-u-s-alliance-with-the-philippines/

Duterte is a fucking moron. He gets pissy that the US thinks that his vigilanti murders are murder, and throws a hissy fit. This should show people that he puts his own interest and feelings above the interests of the Philippines, but I don't any of his supporters are going to see it that way.

I sure hope the Philippines enjoys China taking over their territorial water claims
Click to expand...

Hehehe talk about spitting to the clouds
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
Piecake said:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/07/first-cracks-appear-in-the-u-s-alliance-with-the-philippines/

Duterte is a fucking moron. He gets pissy that the US thinks that his vigilanti murders are murder, and throws a hissy fit. This should show people that he puts his own interest and feelings above the interests of the Philippines, but I don't any of his supporters are going to see it that way.

I sure hope the Philippines enjoys China taking over their territorial water claims
Click to expand...
Dude is ruining the pivot
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
Piecake said:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/07/first-cracks-appear-in-the-u-s-alliance-with-the-philippines/

Duterte is a fucking moron. He gets pissy that the US thinks that his vigilanti murders are murder, and throws a hissy fit. This should show people that he puts his own interest and feelings above the interests of the Philippines, but I don't any of his supporters are going to see it that way.

I sure hope the Philippines enjoys China taking over their territorial water claims
Click to expand...

He shot himself in the foot here.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
marco roboto just had too much money. It's OK to lose some guys.



Ehh I think this is a pretty safe floor if you stick third parties at 2-3%.
Click to expand...

There hasn't been a single poll (at least recently) with Trump getting 45% of the vote. I honestly think his floor and ceiling are around the 40-43% area. There's nothing to suggest he can break out of the low 40s at this point.

(at least not in the 3 way, and ignoring USC and whatever like such as)
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Wait, this is so insane. He's going off the rails.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ory.html?postshare=4201475861593154&tid=ss_tw

As Donald Trump jetted to Colorado on Monday, his presidential campaign was on life support. His momentum had been zapped by a turbulent week, bookended by an unsteady debate and an erratic display at his last rally. In Washington, GOP leaders were analyzing internal polls that charted a Trump collapse in nearly every swing state.

Aboard his plush Boeing 757, the Republican nominee and his closest advisers charted a plan to stabilize the campaign. In the wake of revelations about his taxes, Trump would deliver two prepared speeches defending his business acumen and framing his ups and downs as a real estate tycoon as a “comeback” — and he would yoke it to the populism that galvanizes his grass-roots supporters.

“I’m working for you now; I’m not working for Trump,” he thundered in Pueblo. Hours later, at a massive arena rally in Loveland, Trump cast himself as a warrior for working people who relishes “taking out the financial establishment.”

For Trump and his bleary team, the day was a victory. The candidate was back on script and seemingly back on track.

But Trump was still Trump. As his motorcade pulled into Denver’s Ritz-Carlton hotel for the night, Trump was in a fury. He lashed out at aides for booking such luxurious accommodations, saying he would have preferred to stay at a Holiday Inn Express — a chain he considers reliably clean — as he did on occasion during the primaries, according to three people familiar with the episode who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
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OMG:

So it went throughout the rest of this week, as pressure mounted on Trump to rebound or risk losing to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a landslide. Although Trump understood that he needed to improve his standing, he continued to boast behind the scenes about unscientific online polls showing he won the first debate.

Trump resisted suggestions from his advisers to practice exhaustively for the second debate, a town-hall-style forum that will be held Sunday night in St. Louis. He flat-out refused to participate in mock sessions, saying such playacting was annoying.
Click to expand...

Instead, Trump sat for informal meetings beginning last weekend at his golf course in Bedminster, N.J., and later on Thursday at Trump Tower in New York.

In those conversations, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus would pepper him with rapid-fire questions while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie played the role of Trump’s antagonist. Campaign chief executive Stephen K. Bannon, campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, policy director Stephen Miller, Giuliani and others would talk through scenarios, body language and political points.

“Christie is taking the lead on this and that gives me some relief,” said Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign adviser. “You don’t see any better puncher and counterpuncher than Chris Christie.”

Perhaps most revealing — and an example of how Trump’s campaign tightened the circle around Trump — was the absence of Roger Ailes, the ousted Fox News chairman and former Republican operative, as well as several retired military officials, who had participated in some of Trump’s earlier huddles.
Click to expand...

As this week wore on, Trump strategized with Bannon, Kushner and top aides as he campaigned in Arizona and Nevada. He remained insistent against the kind of formal run-throughs Clinton was doing, but his advisers convinced him to do a scrimmage.

Trump held a town hall meeting on Thursday night in New Hampshire. David Bossie, Trump’s deputy campaign manager, worked to secure a small venue in Sandown, N.H. The event was designed as a dry run, down to the clock set on the floor by his feet to help him keep his answers to two minutes, as required in the debate.

But Trump would not be wrangled. “They were saying this is practice for Sunday. This isn’t practice. This has nothing to do with Sunday,” Trump said as he opened the event, deriding the notion of “debate prep” as Christie looked on from the crowd.
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It was not the disciplined town hall routine that some of his advisers had imagined. But at least he had done something, they figured, and there was more time to get Trump ready.

Ever the performer, Trump suggested he would smoothly adjust his persona before Sunday. Asked Wednesday by a reporter with NBC’s Las Vegas affiliate whether he was trying to tone down his incendiary comments about women, Trump replied, “It’s not a question of trying. It’s very easy.”

As for the candidate’s state of mind once the cameras were off, however, no one around him was quite sure what to say.

“You have to ask him that,” Giuliani said. “I’m not going to be a psychologist. I took one course, Psychology 101, and I got an ‘A.’ But I’m not going to go there.”
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D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
Call me bed wetting or nervous but I feel like we coming to a conflict with Russia in Syria. Breaking off off diplomatic contact, calling for war crimes, now hacking case being made. Feels like Obama admin getting it's ducks in a row to stop them from taking Aleppo.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
whyamihere said:
Wait, this is so insane. He's going off the rails.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ory.html?postshare=4201475861593154&tid=ss_tw
Click to expand...

"Trump prepares for debate rebound but refuses to be controlled"

qMl4WqV.png
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Hmm, will the Republican Congress shutdown the government during December or will they manage to last until Clinton's inauguration in January? Either way, buckle up for four years of complete and utter governmental inaction. I can hardly wait for Democrats to lose even more ground during the midterms as they're inevitably blamed for Republican obstructionism.

And if we're really lucky, the economy will hold steady, we'll re-elect Clinton in 2020, and we'll get to do the whole thing all over again for another four years. It's gonna be extra fun when everyone realizes that the new Census redistricting happens on a state/local level, good thing the Democrats do so much better on a state level than national, am I right?

Seriously though, if a freaking Trump candidacy isn't enough to break the House/Senate to Democratic control then I'm not sure anything ever will. Time to just wait 20 years for demographic trends to take effect I guess.
 
I

Iolo

Member
uh what the

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...9ce776-8cb4-11e6-bf8a-3d26847eeed4_story.html

Donald Trump bragged in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with women during a 2005 conversation caught on a hot microphone — saying that “when you’re a star, they let you do it” — according to a video obtained by The Washington Post.

...

“I moved on her and I failed. I’ll admit it,” Trump is heard saying. It was unclear when the events he was describing took place. The tape was recorded several months after he married his third wife, Melania.

“Whoa,” another voice said.

“I did try and f--- her. She was married,” Trump says.

Trump continues: “And I moved on her very heavily. In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said, ‘I’ll show you where they have some nice furniture.’”

“I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married,” Trump says. “Then all of a sudden I see her, she’s now got the big phony tits and everything. She’s totally changed her look.”

...

“I’ve gotta use some tic tacs, just in case I start kissing her,” Trump says.“You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful -- I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait.”

“And when you’re a star they let you do it,” Trump says. “You can do anything.”

“Whatever you want,” says another voice, apparently Bush’s.

“Grab them by the p---y,” Trump says. “You can do anything.”
Click to expand...
 
E

Emarv

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
Call me bed wetting or nervous but I feel like we coming to a conflict with Russia in Syria. Breaking off off diplomatic contact, calling for war crimes, now hacking case being made. Feels like Obama admin getting it's ducks in a row to stop them from taking Aleppo.
Click to expand...

I feel like it's all Putin playing games because he knows it's an election year and he knows we're hesitant to do anything drastic this close to a transfer of powers. Keep pushing, Obama pushes back with rhetoric, negotiations and diplomatic moves in the area, but it's all just setting up the pieces for January 20, 2017.



speaking of, i was googling Jan 20, 2017 and came across some gems:

Paul Ryan prediction from 2013 - http://gawker.com/jan-20-2017-will-signal-the-dawning-of-president-paul-1481046303

And Bernie Presidency prediction from our lovely leader H.A. Goodman - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-g...-in-as-americas-45th-president_b_8909356.html
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The problem with Syria/Aleppo is that each side has a giant shitshow of allies under them that don't share the interests of their top-level US or Russian allies at all. You can cut top-level deals that then fall apart becuase the allies underneath the top level don't trust each other to hold their sides of the bargain.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The U.S. and Israel and the free Syrian Army and Saudi Arabia and Al-Qaeda and Ukraine and Kurdish forces vs. Russia and Turkey and Iran and Hezbollah and Syria would be a really confusing war if it happens.

Especially since ISIS is the only party in Syria that Americans care about and would barely be noticed in this war because both sides hate them.

... I'm conflicted over starting a war with Russia right now, they're committing mass murder and this looks like only of the most justifiable times for humanitarian intervention.
 
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