Aaron Strife
Banned
You know Ellie, we really are the
TOSSUP DEAD HEAT LIBERALS IN DENIAL THREE MODELS ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE PRESIDENT JOHNSON
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
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TOSSUP DEAD HEAT LIBERALS IN DENIAL THREE MODELS ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE PRESIDENT JOHNSON
Looks like last PPP poll had Trump +4, so probably still underwater in SUSA, but good trendz
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Exactly, and that's the right position to have. Bill did nothing wrong.
Nice, nice. And the absentee ballot requests are looking much better now. Not worried about this one.
YES!!!
Patrick Klepek
furiously molesting tim burton
Yeah, it helps, but how many people change their vote based on an ad featuring a VP? Doubtful. Again, it helps reinforce some pre-existing narratives, but basically a wash. That's a win for Clinton, even if Kaine barely kept himself together.
Aaron Strife
Banned
So enough voters in Maine-2 and Ohio have decided to come to their goddamn senses, Iowa next.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I think it's basically voters realizing that Clinton is not that bad more than Trump continuing to be a piece of shit. I'm sure her debate performance helped that.
RustyNails
Member
Corection, its not PPP but a local poll. But still, they saw an 8 point swing(!) toward Hillary since their last poll
I wonder when he'll do the next amiibo corner.
banefirelord
Banned
I've just realized Nate Silver looks a little too much like Griffin McElroy for comfort and now I'm very afraid.
EDIT: Goddammit kadotsu
Black Mamba
Member
So Trump's bankruptcy filings have finally been released.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/kendalltag...ruptcy-filings?utm_term=.gg5pN2GWo#.pkJ9Zelxa
Also, interesting article on how Trump's dad has bailed him out over and over again: http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-federal-income-tax-records-506713
https://www.buzzfeed.com/kendalltag...ruptcy-filings?utm_term=.gg5pN2GWo#.pkJ9Zelxa
Also, interesting article on how Trump's dad has bailed him out over and over again: http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-federal-income-tax-records-506713
I'm in Maine, and though there are def Trump signs, I do notice that quite frequently someone will have the senator or representative for republican signs in their yard without a Trump sign as well.
Also Hillary signs were nonexistent for a while, but I see a sea of blue signs everywhere now.
Also Hillary signs were nonexistent for a while, but I see a sea of blue signs everywhere now.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I almost think it's the opposite, or at least both. Like, we know Trump is batshit because we're nerds who follow the day-to-day minutia of politics. Most people don't. I'm willing to bet the debate was the first real exposure to Trump's insanity for a lot of swing voters.
Although yes, Clinton did pretty well in her own right coming off as presidential and competent. On the whole though I think Clinton's boost mostly came from people who weren't sure about the viability of each option only to realize Trump is worse by miles.
RastaMentality
Banned
Legends only.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
When will Trump defend Jesse Watters in a press release?
Atomic Playboy
Member
The same way people enjoyed getting their "shot and a beer" break when Prohibition was repealed! Because if there's one things employers are real cool about, it's employees getting intoxicated during work hours.
nature boy
Member
O'Reilly gonna lose it.
User 85168
Banned
what a pc cuck
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, this caused like a 1% swing in the poll-only model, which is silly.
Atomic Playboy
Member
And will he use the word "Orientals" in doing so?
whyamihere
Banned
Something interesting that I think makes sense: Alaska is now basically tied with Georgia for chances of a Hillary win (22.8% AK, 22.9% GA) in the polls-plus model. That's higher than any other currently red state except Arizona (38.9%) and Iowa (49%). Are we sleeping on Alaska?
(Maybe.)
(Maybe.)
Aaron Strife
Banned
That 1 EV will save Hillary after losing New Mexico to Johnson.
Basileus777
Member
Gary Johnson's performance would seem to be key here.
RustyNails
Member
6/10
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Come on, dude, Trump would never use that word to describe people of Asian descent.
I'm pretty sure he calls all Asian people "Chinamen," regardless of country of origin, gender, or good taste.
Aaron Strife
Banned
A democrat could probably win Alaska (or at least make some headway) with a very strong campaign to turn out natives. Look at how close Begich came to holding on.
Depending on what Walker does in 2018 it might be worthwhile to invest in a strong Dem candidate here.
BrokenFiction
Member
HRC buying airtime on the Weather Channel because Matthew.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hurricane-matthew-2016-clinton-trump-path-229200
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hurricane-matthew-2016-clinton-trump-path-229200
whyamihere
Banned
oh man
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
OH MY GOD, FLORIDA ONLY:
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
OH MY GOD, FLORIDA ONLY:
The Clinton campaign is a machine lol. can you imagine them with a good candidate
Aaron Strife
Banned
Dat debate spike.oh man
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
OH MY GOD, FLORIDA ONLY:
Trump going for single digits.
I read Florida's numbers are mainly being driven by Puerto Ricans btw. Would be curious to see how she stacks up with Cubans.
Fenderputty
Banned
Could be that Newsweek article too
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
oh man
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
OH MY GOD, FLORIDA ONLY:
Absolutely amazing numbers. Hillary did such a great job at the debate addressing this.
This is how you do it
Black Mamba
Member
oh man
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
OH MY GOD, FLORIDA ONLY:
Devastating numbers. Florida will be called a lot earlier on election even than usual. I still believe it won't be as close as some other states like Ohio, Iowa, and maybe even Georgia and Zona.
nature boy
Member
User 463088
Banned
I hate you so much because I laughed way too hard at this
How dare you guys compare Nate to our beautiful baby boy Griffin! You should both be banned.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Holy Shit.oh man
http://latinousa.org/2016/10/05/national-post-debate-tracking-poll-latino-voters-clinton-83-support/
OH MY GOD, FLORIDA ONLY:
whyamihere
Banned
I suspect we'll start to see more of this:
@DrewLinzer
Update since last month: People choosing Other or Undecided on national presidential polls is falling, but still 6-8% more than '08 and '12
banefirelord
Banned
Donald is still taking huge Ls, polls keep popping and I finally quit my job. Today's a good day.
RastaMentality
Banned
amazing. i remember in tx when there was a hurricane, everyone had their tv on the weather channel and local news only.
BronzeWolf
Banned
Those third-party-undecided will finish at sub-12%
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Two #hottakes here about this election and beyond:
1. Due to a combination of polls under-representing ethnic minorities and Clinton's ground game vs. Trump's total lack thereof, Clinton ends up winning by a full 2.5% more than the aggregate of the national polls. She's up five to six percent in the polls right now, but I am absolutely certain that she's actually up by about eight percent.
2. The 2020 cycle will see Democrats start with 288 EVs already in likely/lean blue states. This is even calling states like NH and Michigan battleground tossups. Look at the map! Virginia is now blue. I think NV is going to be proven to be a likely blue state when Clinton wins it by five or so and everyone realizes that Latinos were undersampled in like every poll of the state.
We're so polarized as a country that naturally, there SHOULD be fewer battleground states due to polarization! Too many polling or news organizations start with maps that indicate too many initial battleground states for the level of political and cultural polarization. Barring some sort of shift that I can't imagine happening inside of the next four years, I only have AZ, MI, OH, NC, NH, and GA as actual battlegrounds in 2020 - and yeah, I think Florida is all but lost to the GOP at this point. The party's not got the guts to ditch the white nationalists, so Latinos will continue to vote Democratic at the national level until there is some sort of seismic shift in whom the GOP decides to court.
1. Due to a combination of polls under-representing ethnic minorities and Clinton's ground game vs. Trump's total lack thereof, Clinton ends up winning by a full 2.5% more than the aggregate of the national polls. She's up five to six percent in the polls right now, but I am absolutely certain that she's actually up by about eight percent.
2. The 2020 cycle will see Democrats start with 288 EVs already in likely/lean blue states. This is even calling states like NH and Michigan battleground tossups. Look at the map! Virginia is now blue. I think NV is going to be proven to be a likely blue state when Clinton wins it by five or so and everyone realizes that Latinos were undersampled in like every poll of the state.
We're so polarized as a country that naturally, there SHOULD be fewer battleground states due to polarization! Too many polling or news organizations start with maps that indicate too many initial battleground states for the level of political and cultural polarization. Barring some sort of shift that I can't imagine happening inside of the next four years, I only have AZ, MI, OH, NC, NH, and GA as actual battlegrounds in 2020 - and yeah, I think Florida is all but lost to the GOP at this point. The party's not got the guts to ditch the white nationalists, so Latinos will continue to vote Democratic at the national level until there is some sort of seismic shift in whom the GOP decides to court.
aspiegamer
Member
Dear god please tell me it's the new positive ad she has on. Otherwise that's just freaking terrible and inhumane. There'd be zero trying to defend that.
The hopium of the past few days is being snuffed out by this stupid hurricane. On one hand, it's trying its hardest to point exactly at Trump's FL golf resort. Unfortunately there are several million people in the same area, so no schadenfreude allowed.
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