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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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A

Ashodin

Member
aspiegamer said:
Dear god please tell me it's the new positive ad she has on. Otherwise that's just freaking terrible and inhumane. There'd be zero trying to defend that.

The hopium of the past few days is being snuffed out by this stupid hurricane. On one hand, it's trying its hardest to point exactly at Trump's FL golf resort. Unfortunately there are several million people in the same area, so no schadenfreude allowed.
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Well I think it's just smart putting ads on where people will be watching most.

I just hope all the people in Florida (natch, Haiti and more) stay safe.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Again, I watch local and national network news to see how Man Street will see those things. Local news spent a few minutes on it, but basically just covered how Pence lied. A lot. Barely mentioned Kaine at all.

NBC Nightly news dragged the fuck out of Pence. Showed the clip of Trump trying to take credit. Fact checked Pence on Putin. And said that each interrupted the other. Then said Kaine's argument was "How can you ask Americans to vote for a candidate that Pence can't defend."

So, good coverage for us, I think.
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
Looks like Matthew is going to be a direct hit on Florida, but it might end up veering away to the southeast(?) and completely miss everything else?
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
KyroLen said:
I'm in Maine, and though there are def Trump signs, I do notice that quite frequently someone will have the senator or representative for republican signs in their yard without a Trump sign as well.

Also Hillary signs were nonexistent for a while, but I see a sea of blue signs everywhere now.
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I live and work in York County. I haven't seen ANY Hillary signs yet. It's all Trump and Johnson. I hope I get to see that sea of blue you speak of.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Aaron Strife said:
A democrat could probably win Alaska (or at least make some headway) with a very strong campaign to turn out natives. Look at how close Begich came to holding on.

Depending on what Walker does in 2018 it might be worthwhile to invest in a strong Dem candidate here.
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IIRC, I think Johnson is helping Clinton immensely in Alaska.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Dat debate spike.

Trump going for single digits.

I read Florida's numbers are mainly being driven by Puerto Ricans btw. Would be curious to see how she stacks up with Cubans.
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If you look at their Miami poll, it's about 70-20 Clinton, Trump's support fell five percent from 25% last week. So Miami Cubans are still more Republicans than latinos as a whole in Florida but Trump is getting destroyed. Miami-Dade county might be 65-30 for Clinton...or more which would be a nightmare for Republicans.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Holmes said:
If you look at their Miami poll, it's about 70-20 Clinton, Trump's support fell five percent from 25% last week. So Miami Cubans are still more Republicans than latinos as a whole in Florida but Trump is getting destroyed. Miami-Dade county might be 65-30 for Clinton...or more which would be a nightmare for Republicans.
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Also, I think Jews will vote in larger numbers for Hillary than they did Obama which is another boost in Miami/Fla.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
A new thread already?

Would have suggested PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| That's Nonsense!, myself personally.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
adam387 said:
Again, I watch local and national network news to see how Man Street will see those things. Local news spent a few minutes on it, but basically just covered how Pence lied. A lot. Barely mentioned Kaine at all.

NBC Nightly news dragged the fuck out of Pence. Showed the clip of Trump trying to take credit. Fact checked Pence on Putin. And said that each interrupted the other. Then said Kaine's argument was "How can you ask Americans to vote for a candidate that Pence can't defend."

So, good coverage for us, I think.
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ABC showed that Trump thing, but played BOTH SIDES.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Barton Jacka ‏@bljacka 2h2 hours ago
@JayCostTWS Not to mention the state & local governments. Baffled by Obama's/Dem Party's disdain for anything but WH.

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS 2h2 hours ago
And in both cases, voters quickly developed some pretty severe buyers' remorse.

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS 2h2 hours ago
And apart from the 2008 election, neither ideology has won much of a national victory since 1980.

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS 3h3 hours ago
Article I is still Article ONE, even if we are perpetually distracted by the race for the WH.

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS 3h3 hours ago
Jay Cost Retweeted Alex Burns
The presidency isn't the only national election. We have a national House election every two years. GOP has won 9 of last 11.
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.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
CuCeHyOXgAUNJ32.jpg
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Clinton's lead with millennials: African Americans +72 Asian Americans +65 Latinos +55 Whites +10

For Obama in 2012: African Americans +83 Latinos +49 Whites -7
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Whoa, Hillary has a 10 point lead nationally? :O :O :O

The power of the mothuluvin KAINE TRAIN, YO!
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
heheheehehehehehheheh

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html

Donald Trump’s Slip in Polls Has G.O.P. Worried About Congress

Donald J. Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress.

For his party, Mr. Trump’s reversal in fortune comes at the worst possible moment: Having muted their criticism of Mr. Trump in hopes that he could at least run competitively through Election Day, Republicans must decide in the next few days, rather than weeks, whether to seek distance from his wobbly campaign.

Should Mr. Trump falter badly in his second debate with Hillary Clinton on Sunday in St. Louis, Republican congressional candidates may take it as a cue to flee openly from their nominee, said two senior Republicans involved at high levels of the campaign who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private party strategy.

Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential.
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Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist involved in several House races in swing states, said she was dismayed by a sudden exodus of independent voters in more diverse parts of the country.

“They are really starting to pull away from Trump,” said Ms. Hickey, describing his soaring unpopularity with independents as entering “uncharted territory.”
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“Two weeks ago I would have said Republicans would hold control of the Senate, but there’s just so many seats up and nobody is getting separation,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, referring to the number of the party’s candidates still locked in tight races. “It worries me that we’re this close to Election Day and you’re not seeing that separation, because it makes you wonder what kind of impact the top of the ticket has.”
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Republicans worry that Mr. Trump’s difficulties in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbents are caught between their own base and moderate voters appalled by the party’s nominee, could hand Democrats those decisive seats. Senator Kelly Ayotte, the Republican up for re-election in New Hampshire, demonstrated the vise she is in this week when she said at a debate that Mr. Trump would represent a good role model for children, only to recant a few hours later.

Sensing new opportunity, Democrats intend to redouble their efforts to tie Republican candidates to Mr. Trump in states and districts with large numbers of college-educated voters and minorities.

“I think it’s quite effective in New Hampshire, in suburban Philadelphia and in Nevada,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat.

Compounding their difficulties, Republicans are also fending off a challenge to Senator Richard M. Burr in North Carolina, a state Mrs. Clinton is determined to win, and have also become just as worried about Senator Roy Blunt’s prospects in Missouri. Strategists in both parties who have seen internal polling say Mr. Blunt, whose seat initially seemed safe, is now trailing his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander, a deft campaigner who has been helped by Mrs. Clinton’s narrowing deficit in the state.
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In the House, where Republicans enjoy a 59-seat majority, the party’s strategists still insist that Mr. Trump’s effect has been limited; while his poll numbers have fallen since the first debate, he is not yet seen as so much of a drag on the ballot that he could send the party’s other candidates to defeat.

House Democrats, however, finished polling 30 battleground districts last week — before the fallout from the first presidential debate — and concluded that Mr. Trump remained toxic for Republican congressional candidates. Geoff Garin, one of the Democratic pollsters who conducted the survey, said undecided or wavering voters tended to see Republicans as “putting party loyalty ahead of the country by supporting Trump.”

“Candidates’ support for him and unwillingness to stand up to him becomes a black mark,” Mr. Garin said.
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This is sad, but I also think that NV is a hard state to poll:

The good news for Senate Republicans, besides Mrs. Clinton’s own unpopularity and Mr. Trump’s history of bouncing back from self-inflicted wounds, is that Democrats may need to pick up more than just two seats to seize the majority. In Nevada, which has the only Democratic-held Senate seat being aggressively fought over this year, strategists in both parties say Republicans have an advantage in the race to succeed Harry Reid, the minority leader.
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D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Took me way too long to find the new thread when the old one wasn't at the top of my subscriptions list...



Anyways, my favorite election graphic is giving me more hope....

m2MnGYo.png



Still kind of terrified at the alternative though...
 
S

Slizeezyc

Member
There's only one car in my entire Florida neighborhood with a Trump sticker, and it's a primary Trump sticker not even Trump/Pence one. SAD!
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
I have been going through the slog of online dating, as of late, and normally it's dead ends and garbage, but I did meet a girl who's actually been a joy to talk to. After like a day or so of texting this happened. Now you have my attention...
 
T

Tranqueris

Banned
I can't wait to see some Ayotte numbers after her role model comment really kicks in. How the hell do you go through months of avoiding Trump only to mess up that spectacularly?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
There are now more registered voters in California than the population of 46 states
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California last month hit a new record of more than 18.2 million registered voters, as state elections officials say registration continues to surge.

"This is a major milestone," Secretary of State Alex Padilla said in a written statement.

The state saw a net gain of almost 1 million new voters since a report from the same time period in 2012. The new data show California now has more registered voters than the population of 46 states.
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But we get only 2 Senate seats. :cry: If only we split NorCal an SoCal we could gain 2 more liberal seats. Sigh.

Republicans trailed Democrats in registration by more than 18 percentage points in the official state report released Wednesday. Unaffiliated voters, known in California as those who have "no party preference," were a close third and made up more than 23% of the statewide registration.
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http://www.latimes.com/politics/ess...egistered-voters-in-1475694802-htmlstory.html

The GOP in California is largely dead. It's amazing to witness this happening in real time.
 
R

Retro

Member
Basileus777 said:
Clinton's lead with millennials: African Americans +72 Asian Americans +65 Latinos +55 Whites +10

For Obama in 2012: African Americans +83 Latinos +49 Whites -7
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Those fuckin' single digits for Trump are insane even if it is limited to just millennials. He's the fucking Republican Candidate and he's polling below both third party candidates with African Americans and Latino millennials. Barely eeked out Jill Stein with Asians. I know younger voters lean predominantly democrat, but this is more than a lean. This is Michael Jackson in the Smooth Criminal video leaning. Crazy.
 
N

nature boy

Member
When was the last time Abuela went to NV? 2 Trump rallies today.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 11m11 minutes ago
ex-WJC pollster Greenberg on Hillary's hardening lead: "Trump locking in btwn 38-41%. She's ahead of 2012 margin. issue whether reaches '08"
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Subterranean

Subterranean

Member
TumblingHippo said:
Reminds me of my downstairs neighbors who put a Trump bumper sticker on their apartment door :/
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I see people around my area that have two to three Trump signs in their front yard. You can't have just one? Have to have three within 5 feet of the other to prove that you're a Trump supporter?
 
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