I don't know the details but apparently someone droppoed the oppo on him
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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I don't know the details but apparently someone droppoed the oppo on him
Fragamemnon
Member
In the future, should aggregates not include tracking polls?
If you break out the trackers and just use the same polls that the CPD uses to determine debate participants, you get a much more solid picture of the race. The downside is that it increases the chance for systemic poll failure.
Biden was just here last Friday for Kander
Makes sense. Hope he wins. Need to flip as many Senate seats as possible.
whyamihere
Banned
@cuyahogaboe: If Election Day turnout follows the same trend as early voting, as it has in the past two presidential elections, I expect 62% total turnout
Cuyahoga Board of Elections. Was 70% in 2012.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
What should be terrifying isn't that Trump is being propped up by Russia.
It's that the GOP is ok with Trump being propped up by Russia and the obvious consequences of that happening (CYA NATO).
It's that the GOP is ok with Trump being propped up by Russia and the obvious consequences of that happening (CYA NATO).
Hooligan69
Member
No reason to bedwet over CO
Trump campaign spends $25 million in ads and no PA? SAD!
A huge chunk of the GOP here hates Trump, in fact, we refused to hold a Republican primary and abstained from voting at the GOP convention. On the other hand, they fucking love Cruz, so there's that...
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's just annoying when you get a junk tracking poll and a good poll around the same time, and people assume the results are somewhere in the middle, when one poll from an esteemed pollster with decades of experience is pretty clearly a lot better and more informative than "Big Bill's House o' Daily Polls"If you break out the trackers and just use the same polls that the CPD uses to determine debate participants, you get a much more solid picture of the race. The downside is that it increases the chance for systemic poll failure.
And yet they, more often than not, get treated as exactly the same.
Basileus777
Member
In the future, should aggregates not include tracking polls?
Their methology is usually weird and they bounce all over the place and seem to not really show anything of interest.
They were assumed to be good at showing trends, but in the last month, they've moved up and down so much at seemingly random that they don't even seem good for that anymore.
Then you might run the risk of not having enough polling to build a good model off of.
We did hear earlier that Ohio saw a significant dem surge over the weekend. It doesn't look good but it may not be hopeless.Cuyahoga Board of Elections. Was 70% in 2012.
sturgboski
Member
At this point, the Russian support is writing on the wall. It's obvious they're trying to get Trump in. Republicans are in full delusion mode denying it >_>
According to the FBI Russia isnt trying to interfere on behalf of Trump or the GOP. Of that, they are certain.
However, lets all speculate on Clinton emails and the Clinton foundation.
No electoral engineering or partisanship here. Why do you ask?
She's losing
This is why they're throwing money at MI, WI, NM and other states. They've got money to spare.
I want an infomercial!
Lord Frieza
Member
PA is wasted effort for the GOP. I know it's considered a swing state, but I look at it as a solid blue one to be honest. It's not gone red in thirty years
I don't know the details but apparently someone droppoed the oppo on him
Tied in Monmouth poll from yesterday, battered by negative ads, not looking good
Damn, hopefully he manages to pull through.
Cuyahoga Board of Elections. Was 70% in 2012.
So no Ohio this cycle huh?
We did hear earlier that Ohio saw a significant dem surge over the weekend. It doesn't look good but it may not be hopeless.
The way I read that, it's just a general depression of voters, not specifically Dems or Repubs... And weren't we going "Yey! Let's have Trump depress the Republican turnout" a few days ago?
No. This is wrong. There is legitimate criticism about some of the shit they throw in their aggregate. They weight some of these crap polls insanely high. They include obvious bull shit and partisan crap. Plus, Nate is fucking terrible. He's notgood at analysis. His writing is terrible, and he's a dick on Twitter. His feefees get hurt the moment anyone questions his precious model.
Sorry autocorrect went weird.
Feefees is a good new word, actually!
DontBeThatGuy
Member
The way I read that, it's just a general depression of voters, not specifically Dems or Repubs... And weren't we going "Yey! Let's have Trump depress the Republican turnout" a few days ago?
I don't think Republicans are particularly depressed right now.
Indeed. But just imagine the body-draining, full-mana-releasing orgasms that will take place all at once when She's officially our next POTUS. Entire neighborhoods will need cleaning, drains will be clogged from the pent-up ejaculatory releases being jettisoned all at once.
We will drown ourselves in GOP/Alt-right tears and it will be glorious!
GOP/Alt-right tear factories:
freerepublic
r/thedonald
Any others?
This is why they're throwing money at MI, WI, NM and other states. They've got money to spare.
I want an infomercial!
The news of her pulling in $11.3m was tweeted by the same person who tweeted about NM, MI, etc. GOTV----it was the tweet before it. I posted it because it provides a little more context.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah. It's hard to tell since the data I have available on my phone isn't clear in terms of party reg turnout by county (it's out there I think?) It'd be a loss of maybe 92k based on my QuickMath (this could be wrong).
Hard to say.
Hard to say.
The news of her pulling in $11.3m was tweeted by the same person who tweeted about NM, MI, etc. GOTV----it was the tweet before it. I posted it because it provides a little more context.
Oh, well, there you go.
And Ohio is looking tight, as always with those numbers from Cuyahoga.
White college educated voters need to really show up in order to compensate for that lower AA turnout (if the Clinton campaign doesn't manage to get it up more) and Republican turnout needs to be the same or less than in 2012.
I don't know, it all depends on who is actually voting, instead of just relying on absolute county numbers.
I don't think Republicans are particularly depressed right now.
By the same token (Comeygate), I don't think the Dems are that depressed right now, either. Angry, sure, but not depressed... And that record-breaking raise over the last 72 hours shows that supporters are stepping up.
I'd hazard a guess and say that it's the NPA who are depressed and affecting the EV numbers.
It's pretty insane to me that 8 percent of voters in Ohio, across both parties, feel less compelled to vote in this election than the last one. Even if you're way less enthused about Hillary and Trump than you were about Obama and Romney, surely the stakes feel WAY higher and more important?
FBI competing with Wikileaks, holy shit
This is obvious tampering with the election.
Fuck the optics. The White House needs to do something.
Are they for real with the timing on this? I mean, holy crap.
The FBI is falling apart, jesus. They need to clean house.
Comey's behavior runs deeper though-it shows a profound willingness by a federal agency to get involved with partisan politics. We've gone through that before as a country, it was bad.
Hillary needs to appoint someone willing to purge the partisans from the agency. It feels right now the FBI is all about partisan leaking information and non-partisans leaking more information to point out how out of control the partisans are and that the rest of the FBI are good people. Totally out of control!
This is exactly what is happening. Comey is still actively trying to influence the election. These leaks are happening because of him and releasing documents pertaining to the Clinton foundation is further evidence of this.
...<sigh>
On October 30th this year...
https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/792637173937807360
Fred C. Trump: Fred C. Trump (1905-1999) was a real estate developer and philanthropist. This release consists of... https://vault.fbi.gov/fred-c.-trump
GOP/Alt-right tear factories:
freerepublic
r/thedonald
Any others?
Stormfront?
...<sigh>
On October 30th this year...
https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/792637173937807360
Something is going on here.
tedrotheredro
Member
The Wikileaks "dump the e-mails" thing is a perfect example of why the e-mails are so devious: people simply don't understand them.
No one has ever said "dump" a batch of files, and meant anything other than exporting them. It's clear he wanted to export the files to give to government officials. But to old people and crazy alt-rights, dump means garbage. Of course he would say "DELETE ALL THE EMAILS", a clear obstruction of justice, from his gmail account. Sure.
No one has ever said "dump" a batch of files, and meant anything other than exporting them. It's clear he wanted to export the files to give to government officials. But to old people and crazy alt-rights, dump means garbage. Of course he would say "DELETE ALL THE EMAILS", a clear obstruction of justice, from his gmail account. Sure.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
By the same token (Comeygate), I don't think the Dems are that depressed right now, either. Angry, sure, but not depressed... And that record-breaking raise over the last 72 hours shows that supporters are stepping up.
I'd hazard a guess and say that it's the NPA who are depressed and affecting the EV numbers.
I just think there's something to the notion that AA turnout will be depressed just in general, and that's definitely a problem in Ohio, considering the demographic make up there.
I thought Bayh had this on lock?? What changed in just a few weeks?
A fair amount of stories about him being a lobbyist and not knowing the address of his condo in Indianapolis/not being there in the last year, etc.
Beer Monkey
Member
...<sigh>
On October 30th this year...
https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/792637173937807360
That FBI account was dormant for a year and then posted a bunch of shit at 4am.
Randolph Freelander
Member
538 just flipped to a red Florida. IT'S OVER.
Calgon
Take me away
538 just flipped to a red Florida. IT'S OVER.
Gonna be back to 1st debate numbers before next Monday at this rate.
nature boy
Member
Shouldn't the big 5 outside of ABC be droppin' their national polls
They've been doing an absurd amount of private polling@ppppolls Big picture what we're seeing is things tightened some *last week* (GOP coming home) but don't look any worse *this week.* Clinton +3-5
metalslimer
Member
Serious question, guys.
I'm thinking about taking the day off work to help get people to the polls--people who normally can't but would if they could.
What can I do? I live in Columbus, Ohio and I want to help drive turnout.
Adam probably knows a lot more about Ohio stuff, but usually the local parties if you call them up will have volunteer positions open. Also I love how there were GOP members were like gosh I can never vote for that racist, sexual assaulting, misogynistic pig before emails and now they are starting to come home somewhat.
SporeCrawler
Member
Republicans chummy with russia? Wtf..
Slso trump is gonna win it isnt he.. you never dissapoint USA
Slso trump is gonna win it isnt he.. you never dissapoint USA
538 just flipped to a red Florida. IT'S OVER.
FUCK!
Calgon
Take me away
Gonna be back to 1st debate numbers before next Monday at this rate.
Do you guys really need to come into PoliGAF just to post this garbage? This is why the thread is unreadable.
LegendofJoe
Member
The AA community in NC will show up. GK Butterfield and Rev. Barber will rally the troops. I predict a clean sweep in my home state.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Shouldn't the big 5 outside of ABC be droppin' their national polls
We will be seeing lots of stuff between Wednesday and Monday.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Do you guys really need to come into PoliGAF just to post this garbage? This is why the thread is unreadable.
Kind of unnecessarily harsh, but OK.
Fragamemnon
Member
I'd hazard a guess and say that it's the NPA who are depressed and affecting the EV numbers.
NPA early voting is through the roof in FL and NC though. Is that not the case in Ohio?
edit: ya'll need to go on a long walk this afternoon. Then make phone calls to FL.
LostMyNarbles
Member
So I don't quite know how polls like 538 work. With that being said why are people calling for the end of times when they still give the Democrats a 65%+ win for the Senate?
Posting again. PPP bringing some much needed hopium.
@ppppolls Big picture what we're seeing is things tightened some *last week* (GOP coming home) but don't look any worse *this week.* Clinton +3-5
Kind of unnecessarily harsh, but OK.
I kinda see where pigeon is coming from. Some people are being sarcastic and some people in reaction to all of this is freaking out and it's hard for some to discern what's going on if you're just entering the thread.
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