nature boy
Member
I'm not concerned about a smoking gun, I'm annoyed at how Wikileaks it dragging this shit.
At this rate we're going to get #PodestaEmails1000
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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I'm not concerned about a smoking gun, I'm annoyed at how Wikileaks it dragging this shit.
At this rate we're going to get #PodestaEmails1000
All it took was another shoddy daily tracker (which actually moved toward Clinton) and MISSOURI poll.
What a stupid fucking model.
Reading all these articles about some Clinton supporters must lose enthusiasm because of Comey or whatever else, and just not vote, is absolutely mind boggling. I truly cannot understand that thought process.
"Donald Trump is completely unfit to be president and I believe Hillary is the more qualified person for the job...but emails... eh fuck it, not even going to vote."
Like, what the fuck?
"Donald Trump is completely unfit to be president and I believe Hillary is the more qualified person for the job...but emails... eh fuck it, not even going to vote."
Like, what the fuck?
This is exactly what is happening. Comey is still actively trying to influence the election. These leaks are happening because of him and releasing documents pertaining to the Clinton foundation is further evidence of this.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
What change in four years to make 538 so bad.
tedrotheredro
Member
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
oh ok.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah we should be bedwetting about the Senate, but I think we should have been doing that before so nothing much has changed. I'm still optimistic in a 52 splt for Ds. I think Bayh's stupid ass can pull it out. I'm confident in our NC ground game's ability to pull out NC especially if Ross gets an ad with those terrible Burr comments. I'm actually worried about NH the most.
When does early voting in places like NC and FL stop? This Sunday the last day? Or does it go right up until election day with no break?
I hope the AA numbers improve or at the very least don't cause panic in these last few days. I don't want a close win or close anything to cause any uncertainty. I want things called for Hillary as soon as polls close.
I hope the AA numbers improve or at the very least don't cause panic in these last few days. I don't want a close win or close anything to cause any uncertainty. I want things called for Hillary as soon as polls close.
Who cares. If he's right, we're all dead anyway. If he's wrong, we can laugh at him because he has said the model's success criterion is based on the number of states they call correctly --- not on the margins.
nature boy
Member
Lisa LererVerified account
‏@llerer
Clinton also making new six-figure ad buys in CO, Va, Mich & N.Mexico aimed at GOTV
‏@llerer
Clinton also making new six-figure ad buys in CO, Va, Mich & N.Mexico aimed at GOTV
Lord Frieza
Member
Apparently 538 has moved their percentages of a Trump win up about 10-12 times in the course of two days. I really don't want to pile on to Silver like everyone else, but that's pretty ridiculous. It'll probably have the chance of a Trump win at 45-48% by the elections end.
Padding that firewall I guess?
Veritigo_X
Member
No one really cares about #PodestaEmails69 besides deplorables on Twitter. I think dragging it on this long has made the public generally disinterested in the whole thing.
NC stops Saturday.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
I've heard that before from people who seem to think that. I have no idea, since tons of stuff could happen before 2024. He'd have to win this year for sure, like you said. I get the feeling he'd be at least someone whose name comes up for VP shortlist frequently.
The St. Louis American (STL's biggest African American newspaper) endorsement was big. Obviously they endorsed all Democratic candidates, but they're usually lukewarm about many statewide Dems who have to be more moderate to win. But they weren't lukewarm about Jason.
metalslimer
Member
Yep, she has a ton of money in the bank. No need to be conservative right now.
Also I don't really see a Kander type candidate making it through the primary with how he will end up more conservative to catering to Missouri's population. And if he wins reelection dems definitely won't want to give up that seat because it would be a likely loss unless we get some crazy demo changes in the next decade.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Getting money out of the door too. They have a lot of money.
Well, yeah. They want to keep this shit in the news. If they dumped it all at once then no one would be talking about this anymore.
And yeah, wikileaks has nothing. If there was a smoking gun they would have released it weeks ago.
The Lamonster
Member
She needs to keep investing in NH and AZ over these states, IMO
Officerrob
Banned
Bingo! And with ESPN cutting costs, I bet the pressure is extremely high to get traffic
Mostly because a bunch of Republican pollsters suddenly started working towards the end of the campaign. I remember people mentioning this a while back, saying that the intention was precisely this, to try and narrow the averages.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Oversensitive Democrats desperate for a model that makes them feel safe.
nature boy
Member
I'll take a Bayh loss for a Kander win
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
that means Trump can fill in the blanks.
metalslimer
Member
There was a report she is doing an ad buy in AZ, but AZ is not worth it anymore unless they really have a lot of extra money they just want to blow. McCain isn't losing that seat and Clinton probably isn't winning it.
Definitely. I'll take Bayh even though he's pretty much everything young people have a problem with the democratic party about only because that vote will come in handy at some point.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This would imply increased enthusiasm?
eBay Huckster
Member
lolo's being snarky
Hooligan69
Member
Indeed. But just imagine the body-draining, full-mana-releasing orgasms that will take place all at once when She's officially our next POTUS. Entire neighborhoods will need cleaning, drains will be clogged from the pent-up ejaculatory releases being jettisoned all at once.
We will drown ourselves in GOP/Alt-right tears and it will be glorious!
I think everyone will sigh with relief but without the senate we'll be exactly where we are right now
Basileus777
Member
I don't think oversensitive Democrats are responsible for all the poor writing and analysis. This idea that anyone criticizing Silver is mad they he isn't saying what they want to hear is a pretty shitty narrative. His site has had problems since its very launch.
whyamihere
Banned
This feels right.
Cool, I really don't know much about him, but I did see that gun ad he put out and as someone who isn't exactly pro-gun rights...I thought it was a pretty bad ass and effective ad. I'm sure it makes him pretty relatable to the more conservative electorate there. Is Biden gonna show up there? It's a tight race and I think he'd be the only Clinton surrogate who might not harm his chances.
eBay Huckster
Member
can confirm, I am solely responsible for the existence of Pundit Nate Bronze
User 463088
Banned
No. This is wrong. There is legitimate criticism about some of the shit they throw in their aggregate. They weight some of these crap polls insanely high. They include obvious bull shit and partisan crap. Plus, Nate is fucking terrible. He's notgood at analysis. His writing is terrible, and he's a dick on Twitter. His feefees get hurt the moment anyone questions his precious model.
Sorry autocorrect went weird.
I thought Bayh had this on lock?? What changed in just a few weeks?
Lord Frieza
Member
I mean, honestly, do you think his model is a good one? And do you really think an aggregate that moves up to 12 times within a span of two days is all that helpful?
Fragamemnon
Member
The thing about 538 is that their feature article content is really good and diverse. It's a great brand.
Nate's should post his model to a GitHub (leaving source data private). It's not like it would really hurt the site as the model is secondary to the visualizations and branding of 538 as an entity, and it would allow for more competition in trackers.
Nate's should post his model to a GitHub (leaving source data private). It's not like it would really hurt the site as the model is secondary to the visualizations and branding of 538 as an entity, and it would allow for more competition in trackers.
nature boy
Member
Tied in Monmouth poll from yesterday, battered by negative ads, not looking good
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Biden was just here last Friday for Kander
balladofwindfishes
Member
In the future, should aggregates not include tracking polls?
Their methology is usually weird and they bounce all over the place and seem to not really show anything of interest.
They were assumed to be good at showing trends, but in the last month, they've moved up and down so much at seemingly random that they don't even seem good for that anymore.
Their methology is usually weird and they bounce all over the place and seem to not really show anything of interest.
They were assumed to be good at showing trends, but in the last month, they've moved up and down so much at seemingly random that they don't even seem good for that anymore.
MassiveNights
Banned
http://www.channel4.com/news/russian-hackers-linked-to-democrat-stolen-emails
Channel 4 News (UK, reliable) has seen evidence which appears to link Russian hackers with one of the main websites used to leak emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee.
Channel 4 News (UK, reliable) has seen evidence which appears to link Russian hackers with one of the main websites used to leak emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
At this point, the Russian support is writing on the wall. It's obvious they're trying to get Trump in. Republicans are in full delusion mode denying it >_>
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