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[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So it ends up weighting outlier polls disproportionately?

Kind of.

For example, the ABC poll was a huge outlier with Hillary+12 a week ago. The poll is now Trump+1 so it starts adjusting polls based on that outlier having changed a lot.

 

[RustyNails]

Wisconsin University Student from Saudi Arabia who was beaten up on his way from friend's place has died.

The night Hussain Saeed Alnahdi was attacked started out just like any other weekend in Menomonie, Wisconsin, a college town.

Bars had just let out for the night as students wrapped up an evening of carousing. But Alnahdi, a Saudi student attending the University of Wisconsin-Stout would never make it home.

He was attacked and left bloodied in the street near Toppers Pizza, a restaurant in downtown Menomonie around 2 a.m. (3 a.m. ET) on Sunday, according to police.

Alnahdi, 24, died on Monday from injuries he sustained during the the weekend attack. No arrests have been made and investigators are treating the incident as a homicide, the Menomonie Police Department said in a statement issued Monday.

The Royal Consulate General Of Saudi Arabia in Houston told NBC New they are in touch with Alnahdi's family in his home country.

Detectives were still searching for a motive on Tuesday. Witnesses told police the assailant was a white male about six feet tall.

"The motivation of the offender is unknown at this time," Commander Todd Swartz of the Menomonie Police Department told NBC News. "It can't be confirmed at this time whether this was a hate crime."

www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amp/university-wisconsin-stout-student-saudi-arabia-killed-n676101

 

[Fragamemnon]

25-30 million Americans being drug addicts

Much of the rural outrage and anger is out of the collective humiliation of the opioid epidemic in their communities. Trump could have talked to them but those populations were largely not interested in hearing from Hillary.

One of the less written stories about this election is that the rural areas in many of these states have become everything they hated about the inner cities in the 1970s/1980s. Poor, rife with drug abuse, low educational attainment, and high dependence on social programs.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

This is not a reasonable viewpoint. Silver's model may be too sensitive or whatever you want to say, but he's not setting his primary model to get clicks. The now-cast, maybe. His various punditry pronouncements and harping on extremely unlikely electoral college scenarios, sure. But his polls-only model, he made a hypothesis, set it and is just feeding data into it to test it. Dismissing everything he does as ESPN-related is as obnoxious as Nate Silver can be on twitter.

I wouldn't be surprised, or blame him, if he adjusted the aggressiveness of the model to capture some last minute change given the events of this campaign. What would any of these models have done in 2000 when the Bush story came out on the Thursday before the election? No time to catch up on the impact.

 

[Pyrokai]

Much of the rural outrage and anger is out of the collective humiliation of the opioid epidemic in their communities. Trump could have talked to them but those populations were largely not interested in hearing from Hillary.

One of the less written stories about this election is that the rural areas in many of these states have become everything they hated about the inner cities in the 1970s/1980s. Poor, rife with drug abuse, low educational attainment, and high dependence on social programs.

The difference is that they vote against those things : \

 

[cartoon_soldier]

NC continues to astound

 

[clevbrowns94]

I'm just going to trust in Wang. 538 dropping rapidly again, will likely be at 50/50 by the end of the week. And bad Nate keeps obsessing about how his model matches up with the betting markets. So then what is the point of his model when you can just check the betting markets for basically the same numbers?

 

[Cybit]

This doesnt make it right, you know.

It's an automated feed that spits out, in bulk, all requests made here

https://vault.fbi.gov/recently-added

Someone just turned it on for the once a year they turn it on and just ran whatever was in the queue, it looks like. I think folks are super sensitive and looking into things that are normal with colored lenses.

 

[Pyroclastic]

Is there a ralston type person for some of the other pivotal early voting states? shit is captivating

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm just going to trust in Wang. 538 dropping rapidly again, will likely be at 50/50 by the end of the week. And bad Nate keeps obsessing about how his model matches up with the betting markets. So then what is the point of his model when you can just check the betting markets for basically the same numbers?

Nate Silver doesn't understand that the betting markets just bet based on his model and that betting markets in politics are bad.

 

[nature boy]

GOP pollster:

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 1h1 hour ago
10) Final random thought. HRC is not winning Texas and it won't be particularly close.

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
9/ For Trump to truly close the gap he would need steady leads in FL, NC and CO, MI and PA to be no more than Clinton +3

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
8/ Huge field investment by Clinton may be fortuitous. And Trump not doing the same may be a huge missed opportunity.

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
7/ Through her field operation, Clinton has the ability to magnify a 1 point lead more than Trump has the ability to close a 1 point deficit

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
6/ Inexorable path now seems close to 2012 redux, trading Hispanics for blacks and college whites for non-college whites

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
5/ Young voters coming home to Clinton. Some Republicans will come home to Trump.

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
4/ Evidence that Clinton falling short amongst African Americans but posting big #s with Hispanics

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
3/ Early voters are decided voters. Poll movement has little to no bearing on early voters.

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
2/ Lots of people have voted early

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
1/ Some random impressions

 

[Randolph Freelander]

NC continues to astound

Throw party affiliation in the south out the window (I'm assuming this image is based on actual registrations, and not general affinities). Older people are going to be largely registered as democrats though they're more often than not voting as republicans. As they die off, that's going to pull the # for democrats down while not really impacting results in the same way. The same is true if/when they move and/or update their voter registrations.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Is there a ralston type guy for some of the other pivotal early voting states? shit is captivating

@gercohen, @BowTiePolitics, @wccubbison for NC

 

[RustyNails]

It's an automated feed that spits out, in bulk, all requests made here

https://vault.fbi.gov/recently-added

Someone just turned it on for the once a year they turn it on and just ran whatever was in the queue, it looks like. I think folks are super sensitive and looking into things that are normal with colored lenses.

Someone just turned it on, 5 days before election? And someone just unloaded a batch of documents related to a political hot potato?

 

[Iolo]

Is there a ralston type person for some of the other pivotal early voting states? shit is captivating

There's Steve Schale for Florida, but he's partisan.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

GOP pollster:

Does this mean it's time to bedwet?!?

I can't understand anything anymore.

 

[Iolo]

GOP pollster:

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 3h3 hours ago
2/ Lots of people have voted early

dat insight

 

[Blader]

VA voter registrations really shifted to Dems in a big way this cycle.

 

[Laevateinn]

Nate Silver doesn't understand that the betting markets just bet based on his model and that betting markets in politics are bad.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Does this mean it's time to bedwet?!?

I can't understand anything anymore.

He's saying its going to basically be 2012 plus NC.

 

[Fragamemnon]

He's saying its going to basically be 2012 plus NC.

isn't that the shot that plouffe called earlier in the year?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

He's saying its going to basically be 2012 plus NC.

Seems reasonable, and what a lot of people have been saying. Other than maybe minus Ohio and/or Iowa.

 

[User 463088]

I stand by 2012 minus Ohio and Iowa. Gives her 323, maybe 324 if we get one EV in NE.

 

[Mizerman]

Does this mean it's time to bedwet?!?

I can't understand anything anymore.

Basically Obama 2012 with some differences.

 

[nature boy]

Does this mean it's time to bedwet?!?

I can't understand anything anymore.

Clinton replacing part of the Obama coalition, superior ground game. young voters are with Clinton, no evidence Trump can change the race.

Nothing surprising, but good to know we're not off the mark.

 

[embalm]

Did anyone post the Trump v Hillary Epic Rap Battles of History yet?

It might lighten the mood a little.

 

[Chezzymann]

If we dont get the senate it will be another 4 years of gridlocked government, ugh

 

[kirblar]

VA voter registrations really shifted to Dems in a big way this cycle.

Will keep doing so, all the growth is in NOVA.

This is not a reasonable viewpoint. Silver's model may be too sensitive or whatever you want to say, but he's not setting his primary model to get clicks. The now-cast, maybe. His various punditry pronouncements and harping on extremely unlikely electoral college scenarios, sure. But his polls-only model, he made a hypothesis, set it and is just feeding data into it to test it. Dismissing everything he does as ESPN-related is as obnoxious as Nate Silver can be on twitter.

Once you start presenting one poll that's blatantly clickbait, how are we supposed to trust that the rest of your analysis is in good faith? This also applies to Nate turning into a standard issue Beltway Pundit in the primaries.

 

[TheFatOne]

I want her to lose OH, but still win bigly so that we can forever put to bed the importance of winning OH.

Edit: It is easily to me the most tiresome of talking points.

 

[thepotatoman]

GOP pollster:

Doesn't the polls account for people that already voted? The just get put down as the person they voted for. If polls show trump winning, it would be with people that already voted in the sample.

Does mean that it's a little harder to swing the polls though.

 

[The Lamonster]

He's saying its going to basically be 2012 plus NC.

with Donald Trump as the GOP candidate.

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS COUNTRY. This should have been a fucking landslide. Shame on the USA. Shame on Republican voters.

 

[Outdoor Miner]

He's saying its going to basically be 2012 plus NC.

This is exactly what I predicted a year ago lol.

 

[metalslimer]

If we dont get the senate it will be another 4 years of gridlocked government, ugh

It's still going to be 4 years of gridlock. 2012-2014 didn't get much accomplished either. The big immigration reform package and grand bargain failed miserably with house republicans. The Senate is about getting control of some of the committees and getting Supreme Court justices through.That's good enough for me right now though because I'll take potentially destroying religious freedom/bathroom laws and reinstituting part of the Voting rights act as huge victories. Obama's executive action on immigration is also going to be a huge issue.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Is there a ralston type person for some of the other pivotal early voting states? shit is captivating

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject

 

[wumster3000]

Wisconsin University Student from Saudi Arabia who was beaten up on his way from friend's place has died.



www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amp/university-wisconsin-stout-student-saudi-arabia-killed-n676101

I am tearing up from this story. I can't believe people let some idiot rile them up to commit murder. It's crazy man. I feel so bad for his family and the people that feel differently than the guy who did this.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Can we not get through one day without bashing FiveThirtyEight? There's no doubt Nate's model overreacts to new polling, but there's some value to it. I mostly check it to see how the margins are changing.

The New York Times page that shows all the different models is the best way to watch how the map is changing IMO

 

[Joeytj]

Does this mean it's time to bedwet?!?

I can't understand anything anymore.

No, it means Hillary is going to win (he says so right there), by about Obama 2012 levels (meaning, ± 330 EV). Let's hope the Clinton camp can turn it into a 350 or more win.

 

[TheFatOne]

It's still going to be 4 years of gridlock. 2012-2014 didn't get much accomplished either. The big immigration reform package and grand bargain failed miserably with house republicans. The Senate is about getting control of some of the committees and getting Supreme Court justices through.

Supreme Court justice is the prize of this election. People keep sleeping on the importance of the SC. Conservatives have shaped the direction of the country for the last 40+ years, and getting a more left leaning SC will change that.

 

[Boke1879]

with Donald Trump as the GOP candidate.

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS COUNTRY. This should have been a fucking landslide. Shame on the USA. Shame on Republican voters.

I know it's sucks but this country is partisan as fuck and Hillary isn't the most well liked, but I'm still going to take great joy in her beating a man like Donald Trump

 

[Loudninja]

Can we not get through one day without bashing FiveThirtyEight? There's no doubt Nate's model overreacts to new polling, but there's some value to it. I mostly check it to see how the margins are changing.

The New York Times page that shows all the different models is the best way to watch how the map is changing IMO

People are free to do as they please.

Like with any other site or pollster.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Remember when 2016 was supposed to be the election Republicans got their shit together and no longer look a national embarrassment?

LOL.

 

[Pixieking]

with Donald Trump as the GOP candidate.

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS COUNTRY. This should have been a fucking landslide. Shame on the USA. Shame on Republican voters.

On the plus-side, the GOP civil war will make them feel like shit and force them to confront their racist/sexist side.

 

[A Human Becoming]

People are free to do as they please.

Okay, thanks for pointing out the obvious.

 

[TheFatOne]

Also one thing I enjoy watching and laughing at is just how quickly the media narrative changes. Once she wins next week suddenly people are going to say Trump has been dead since the summer/the second he became the candidate, and the race was never really close. Just like Obama vs Romney. Shit changes in a heart beat, and the media pretends like they believe it wasn't close all along.

 

[banefirelord]

I stand by 2012 minus Ohio and Iowa. Gives her 323, maybe 324 if we get one EV in NE.

Been basically my thoughts since late August, though I'm Team ME2 Goes To Trump and no NE, so 322.

 

[Good Job Bob]

Machado speaking at the Hillary rally in Dade City lol.

 

[TestOfTide]

with Donald Trump as the GOP candidate.

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS COUNTRY. This should have been a fucking landslide. Shame on the USA. Shame on Republican voters.

Yeah, I'm sorry but I find anything less than Clinton winning by at least Obama 08 levels and Dems taking back the Senate to be unacceptable. Especially considering that Trump doesn't even have any GOTV operation.

Trump losing by only 2012 margins would mean that the GOP learns it can literally nominate ANYONE and the deplorables would guarantee not just 30% of the popular vote, but more than 45%.

Trump losing by anything less than a landslide means that every deplorable aspect about Trump and his fanbase gets normalized into mainstream politics.

And Trump losing by anything less than a landslide will mean that the deplorables won't get the message that most of the country is sick of them.

Fuck that. I don't care if there isn't any more oppo. I need a landslide that lets me know that my country isn't in actual danger of electing a deplorable into office in the future.

I know it's sucks but this country is partisan as fuck and Hillary isn't the most well liked, but I'm still going to take great joy in her beating a man like Donald Trump

I expected there to be a big chunk of voters who are nothing but deplorable pieces of shit.

But I assumed, based on 2008, that they wouldn't be literally 45% of the general election voters.

If Trump ends up with more than 45% of the popular vote, I am going to be VERY pissed off at the deplorables that I personally know.

 

[Dierce]

On the plus-side, the GOP civil war will make them feel like shit and force them to confront their racist/sexist side.

They are not going to do shit. They will do the same thing they've been doing with Obama for the last 6 years and sneak into the presidency once Democratic voters become to apathetic.

With control of all the branches of government they will get away with everything and anything that goes wrong they will blame it on us. These assholes are a cancer to society and our world.

 

[RustyNails]

Machado speaking now, introducing Hillary

The chat, my god. It's like a klan rally. The pepes are especially unhinged right now. I want Hillary to win so, so bad.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Also one thing I enjoy watching and laughing at is just how quickly the media narrative changes. Once she wins next week suddenly people are going to say Trump has been dead since the summer/the second he became the candidate, and the race was never really close. Just like Obama vs Romney. Shit changes in a heart beat, and the media pretends like they believe it wasn't close all along.

Nov 9th GOP will launch their plan to impeach her and the media will eat it up like a starving trout.