SporeCrawler
Member
So what is it? Leaving poor people and people with pre existing conditions kn the dumpster?
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So what is it? Leaving poor people and people with pre existing conditions kn the dumpster?
Yeah its hard to follow.
So exactly what the Clinton campaign anticipated from the beginning.
Mook was a good decision for Hillary. Turnout gonna be the final battleground.
I just saw 538 and it's still light blue in fl, trolls maybe?
It's like 75% troll/mock bedwetters versus 25% actual bedwetters. It's quite annoying.
Fragamemnon
Member
Going from Penn to Mook is the biggest upgrade since Windows Vista->7.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Can someone in the Kremlin leak Richard Burr and Roy Blunt's emails (which they probably stole)?
I mean, come on, throw us a bone here. I'm sure those guys use racial slurs in >30% of their emails. You just need to give us a few.
I mean, come on, throw us a bone here. I'm sure those guys use racial slurs in >30% of their emails. You just need to give us a few.
User 463088
Banned
Contact the Franklin County Dems or your local Hillary offices. They can let you know where they need you. Fiance is going to drive people to the polls with me on election day.
BigJonsson
Member
They have too much money
StopMakingSense
Member
GOTV for down ballot.
Don't want money burning a hole in your pocket at the end of this thing. If they have already spent money in other key areas might as well spend some on your locks just to be sure.
It was light red...just flipped back to light blue
TestOfTide
Banned
My guesses would be two things:
1) Making that popular vote win as big as possible by increasing turnout in likely blue states.
2) Also increasing that turnout in those states to increase the chances of flipping more House Seats.
Well, the Tweet was just a generic "early voting down" kinda thing, so without knowing more, it's hard to say... But some were leaping immediately to "Ohio lost!". Which it may be, but without harder evidence, we should be wary of just bedwetting-up the thread.
Even for some of us who are in the thread constantly, it's sometimes hard to know what's going on... Timezone differences (people in the US waking up, watching Morning-fucking-Joe, etc) mean that it's hard to know what's pointless bedwetting, what's serious worrying, and what's sarcasm. :/
Funny enough - the Trump request was the first thing they posted.
I am guessing someone actually turned the bot back on.
RustyNails
Member
Pigeon's point stands. Lets not flood the place with every single thing nate's model is doing.
Laevateinn
Member
metalslimer
Member
I don't know if this is hopium since the GOP coming home could be bad for the Senate seats we are trying to get. People need to get over it that this isn't going to be a 10+ win though. Looking more like a 5-7 point win assuming we get good turnout. Hoping more for the upper ranges of that to take the Senate. This race is still pretty much stagnant though with only the percentages of winning the Senate moving this whole cycle.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Apparently the Enthusiasm among the dems dipped after the Clinton emails. They are probably overreacting like some folks in this thread who actually believe people other than just hardcore republicans actually care about the emails.
So that enthusiasm dip showed in the polls, but in the end its just dems bedwetting for no reason because they think a candidate who has managed to insult blacks, hispanics, women and muslims is going to win most of the swing states.
The enthusiasm will shoot back up by the end of this week after they see their queen rip Comey to shreds and realize its all a bunch of nothingburger.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Every knowledgeable source on twitter says it's basically excess money. I still think they should have done an infomercial like Obama but who knows if that actually did anything in 2008.
There is so much partisan blindness in this post it's incredible. Judging by the polls asking about the issue, it's clear more than just hardcore republicans care. Secondly, we already know early voting among blacks is at least down from 2012 so that is disappointing on a whole number of levels.
Basileus777
Member
Mook is a rebranded Penn?
balladofwindfishes
Member
He had Trump at 51% an hour ago.
He had Trump at 25% a week ago.
His model doubled the chances of Trump in a week. This would be the largest bump for Trump in Florida in the entire election
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
I'm still relatively new to election polling and this craziness, why is 538 showing a 69.9% - 71.8% win chance for Clinton when The Upshot, PEC, and HuffPo are 88%, 99%, and 98.2% respectively?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I mean this sincerely.
This election has me profoundly despondent about the future.
I know a lot of it is because I just watch the Leo Global warming doc and really am feeling much more pessimisic about our ability to act on climate change do to white anxiety
This isn't healthy and I fear its not going away but its personally effected me profoundly and I don't like it.
I know clinton is likely going to win and the senate is 50-50 but still we can't do this every 4 years...
The thing that bothers me the most is well-to-do conservative never trumpers pretending liberals acting this way is "sad" or putting too much stock in politics. Screw off, you're fine either way.
This election has me profoundly despondent about the future.
I know a lot of it is because I just watch the Leo Global warming doc and really am feeling much more pessimisic about our ability to act on climate change do to white anxiety
This isn't healthy and I fear its not going away but its personally effected me profoundly and I don't like it.
I know clinton is likely going to win and the senate is 50-50 but still we can't do this every 4 years...
The thing that bothers me the most is well-to-do conservative never trumpers pretending liberals acting this way is "sad" or putting too much stock in politics. Screw off, you're fine either way.
Basileus777
Member
It's pretty depressing how climate change wasn't even discussed this election season.
/pol/
definitely think there's going to be more rage than tears on r/the_donald... which is why I will be glued to it all night
nature boy
Member
Help or hurt?
Has there been polling of that race?
Edit: I see it's a close race.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
China criticized Trump today for being a dumbfuck with regards to climate change.
Come on, hack him, China. Let's do this.
538 assumes extremely high variance because older elections had polling errors. The 538 model strongly believes in "momentum" also. The other models consider momentum to be fake and considers polls to be accurate.
Come on, hack him, China. Let's do this.
538 assumes extremely high variance because older elections had polling errors. The 538 model strongly believes in "momentum" also. The other models consider momentum to be fake and considers polls to be accurate.
RustyNails
Member
This doesnt make it right, you know.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I just don't know how it breaks through. Its literally my most important issue.
I like the earth and its a simple fix. Tax carbon, cut taxes on everything else!
Fragamemnon
Member
trends
the fact that we got 'national debt' as the long term "ohnoes" question in the third debate instead of climate change was criminal. The only other thing omitted was the complete silence on American involvement in Saudi Arabia's Yemen war crimes.
I hope Clinton wins but I'm under no illusions she's capable of solving any problems. and her foreign policy will probably be dangerous and ill judged. People voting for Trump aren't just going to calm down and come to their senses and at some point there'll be no more kicking the can down the road. It's very difficult to have much hope.
The fact we didn't get a real question on it during the debates is just disgusting. This is seriously something that should have at least warranted one questions in one of the debates.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Policy took a back seat this election and that's really sad. Especially since Hillary is so good at making policy.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
25-30 million Americans being drug addicts and medical costs exploding because of obesity were also not brought up and were important things.
Had to talk more about the emailz.
Had to talk more about the emailz.
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
What exactly do you/they mean by momentum?
Also, what's the tract record for these four aggregates? Have they been right in the last three elections a week out?
StopMakingSense
Member
Oh that is funny. I went back home last week to Vista, CA which is in his district. He is spending a lot of money to try to keep his seat, with many ads running in the San Diego tv stations. Also a lot of developers in the care wanting him to win, some of the larger developments there were just accosted by Issa signs. He has a very heterogenous district since the redistricting, and if latinos are voting in record numbers, I could see it very well flipping.
Basically zero trump signs.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Momentum means that if some pollsters start showing Trump with better polls than their last poll, 538 will start adjusting the rest of the polls towards Trump on the basis that they will also show movement to Trump. (The same is true for Hillary)
gutter_trash
Banned
so basically Hillary hating Republicans are returning home,
hoping for 2008 levels, might end up just being 2012+ though
hoping for 2008 levels, might end up just being 2012+ though
Hooligan69
Member
But for maximum effect, wouldn't the release of the smoking gun (if they had it) -the legit November Surprise -tomorrow or Thursday be perfect for them, at least optics-wise? It seems it would solidify Dump's chances of winning.
I almost threw up in my mouth typing that last part. ugh!
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
So it ends up weighting outlier polls disproportionately?
Basically if the same poll had Clinton higher in their previous poll, they adjust the new one an extra point or so assuming momentum and trends.
Example:
October Poll: Clinton +7
Clinton 47
Trump 40
Adjusted Leader: Clinton +7
November Poll: Clinton +5
Clinton 46
Trump 41
Adjusted Leader: Clinton +4
Not necessarily but they do react harder to polling variance and noise which seems silly given how noisy polling is in general
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
And in already red states, it seems. Texas had gone from +6 trump to +13. That alone has to be a significant national % move
This is not a reasonable viewpoint. Silver's model may be too sensitive or whatever you want to say, but he's not setting his primary model to get clicks. The now-cast, maybe. His various punditry pronouncements and harping on extremely unlikely electoral college scenarios, sure. But his polls-only model, he made a hypothesis, set it and is just feeding data into it to test it. Dismissing everything he does as ESPN-related is as obnoxious as Nate Silver can be on twitter.
StopMakingSense
Member
Also Nate is hedging his bets a lot because of high volatility he is seeing being between the different polls.
Dixie Strategies (who did that Texas poll) is a horrendous pollster. They pulled out of Florida weeks out in 2012 because he was "so far ahead"
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