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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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C

Cad-Monkey

Neo Member
dakini said:
IDK if posted already but Dems are outperforming 2012 early voting in NE-02

Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 11/1:
D 27,407 47.5%
R 20,615 35.7%
I 9,351 16.2%
Total 57,718

2012 one week out:
D 22,095 +24.0%
R 21,833 -5.6%
I 7,861 +19.0%
Total 51,952 +11.1%

Dems up 24%, GOP down 5.6%, Independents up 11.1%

https://twitter.com/davesund/status/793597703208873984
Click to expand...
That's awesome to hear! I'm surrounded by so many crazy republicans here in Omaha that I forget there are still sane people in the 402. Also, I did my part!
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
@SantGRey
@davesund what #s do you think Hillary need in EV to win the district?

‏@davesund
@SantGRey My general rule is about 10k. She can still win under that but if she has that cushion she'll do well enough to outrun Sarpy.
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Sund thinks she needs a 10k lead in NE-2 going into Election Day to win the EV.
 
T

TI82

Banned
These right wing "news" sites are hilarious. Worse than Weekly World News rofl

http://truepundit.com/breaking-bomb...ldren-child-exploitation-pay-to-play-perjury/

New York Police Department detectives and prosecutors working an alleged underage sexting case against former Congressman Anthony Weiner have turned over a newly-found laptop he shared with wife Huma Abedin to the FBI with enough evidence “to put Hillary (Clinton) and her crew away for life,” NYPD sources told True Pundit.
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And people post this as if it's legitimate
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Teggy said:
I don't know about that WS ad. Who hasn't seen those clips a million times already? Would rather something positive.

So Duke sent out a letter to the students complaining that voting was down since 2012. Guess what also changed since 2012? They moved the polling place off campus.
Click to expand...

Eh at this point I think a positive ad will have the same effect as a negative one.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
streetsahead123 said:
Keep in mind EV might not be the best indicator of overall turnout. Could just be a higher percentage of the electorate choosing to early vote. If democratic EV is higher than 2012 but we have less turnout on election day, that lead is negated.
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This is true, academically speaking, but to have massive EV and then have a massive fall-off on Election Day is unprecedented, unless you're arguing that Clinton is basically cannibalizing her most ardent voters, and Election Day will be nothing but infrequent and soft voters.

If we take FL as an example that's just not true, and in fact the EV advantage is in large part to motivating what are considered her most soft supporters, leaving the ardent voters who have historically voted heavily on Election Day, yet to vote.

But pedal to the metal, and don't let up is the Mantra for the next 6 days!
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
streetsahead123 said:
Keep in mind EV might not be the best indicator of overall turnout. Could just be a higher percentage of the electorate choosing to early vote. If democratic EV is higher than 2012 but we have less turnout on election day, that lead is negated.
Click to expand...

Republicans usually early vote, and more Democrats generally turn out on election day. Dem turnout during early vote is scaring Republicans right now.
 
D

dakini

Member
Cad-Monkey said:
That's awesome to hear! I'm surrounded by so many crazy republicans here in Omaha that I forget there are still sane people in the 402. Also, I did my part!
Click to expand...

Yay! I'm in Lincoln and finding another Democrat always makes me smile lol! I've gotten my immediate family and friends groups all registered and everyone I know is voting for Hillary. Some of them have sent in absentee ballots already too, so I'm really hoping we see at the very least NE-02 go for Hillary.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
streetsahead123 said:
Keep in mind EV might not be the best indicator of overall turnout. Could just be a higher percentage of the electorate choosing to early vote. If democratic EV is higher than 2012 but we have less turnout on election day, that lead is negated.
Click to expand...

we've already addressed this particular argument.

Speaking of florida specifically, when it was first reported that latino early voting was up 99%, a good half of that total had never cast a ballot- they were new, first time voters. So not shifting those who already voted earlier in the cycle.

if I can find that article again I'll post it, but its late for me.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
I do think Trump has had better closing message TV ads than Clinton, at least the ones I've been seeing in PA. They're simple, surprisingly positive, and well produced with a slick soundtrack. Basically a stock standard pro-change message.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm curious--do you think the Bush family voting for Hillary has to do with them being smart, or more to do with Trump being a terrible bully to Jeb?
 
S

shadowsdarknes

Member
If Florida does go blue, it takes a ridiculous amount of states for Trump to get to 270.

He needs:

-Nevada
-Wisconsin
-Michigan
-North Carolina
-New Hampshire
-Ohio

All of those states to win.
That's some tough odds.

Plinko said:
I'm curious--do you think the Bush family voting for Hillary has to do with them being smart, or more to do with Trump being a terrible bully to Jeb?
Click to expand...

I think it's more of them being smart. Much for similar reasons that Powell is voting for Clinton.

The Bush and Clinton family are relatively close. Even if the families have ideological disagreements, they know that the Clintons aren't going to set the world on fire.
 
B

Blader

Member
It's more than a little distressing that the FBI is sourcing investigations from Clinton Cash. Is Dinesh D'Souza an informant too?
 
P

Paches

Member
My mom voted today for her first democratic presidential candidate ever. A literal straight republican ticket voter for 45 years.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Grief.exe said:
Republicans usually early vote, and more Democrats generally turn out on election day. Dem turnout during early vote is scaring Republicans right now.
Click to expand...

No, Republicans win absentee vote and Democrats win in person early vote; but Democrats usually come into election day with an overall lead, because their voters need more motivating to vote, and it's easier when you have a lot of time and repeated contact. Obama lost some election day votes but won anyway.
 
M

Mifune

Mehmber
This has been such a monumentally shitty and depressing year for me. A big Hillary victory on Tuesday would go a long way to redeem 2016.

Gonna spend it with my wife and friends and we are gonna get fucking wrecked (or at least I am). There will be tears regardless of the results.
 
T

TI82

Banned
shadowsdarknes said:
If Florida does go blue, it takes a ridiculous amount of states for Trump to get to 270.

He needs:

-Nevada
-Wisconsin
-Michigan
-North Carolina
-New Hampshire
-Ohio

All of those states to win.
That's some tough odds.



I think it's more of them being smart. Much for similar reasons that Powell is voting for Clinton.

The Bush and Clinton family are relatively close. Even if the families have ideological disagreements, they know that the Clintons aren't going to set the world on fire.
Click to expand...


"I don’t need anybody’s votes. It’s nice. I don’t need anybody’s votes. I’m using my own votes. I’m not using the pollsters. I’m not using donors. I don’t care. I’m really spicy, I’ll show you that in a second. And by the way, I’m not even saying that in a braggadocios … that’s the kind of thinking you need for this country."
 
O

Out 1

Member
shadowsdarknes said:
If Florida does go blue, it takes a ridiculous amount of states for Trump to get to 270.

He needs:

-Nevada
-Wisconsin
-Michigan
-North Carolina
-New Hampshire
-Ohio

All of those states to win.
That's some tough odds.
Click to expand...

EerdP.png
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Blader said:
It's more than a little distressing that the FBI is sourcing investigations from Clinton Cash. Is Dinesh D'Souza an informant too?
Click to expand...

You know what is funny. I think he or a PAC are sending people the movie in swing states. Someone I follow on Twitter from Cincinnati posted today that he got the Clinton movie in the mail (UV code).
 
P

Phased

Member
When even RCP begrudgingly predicts a Clinton win (with about as narrow a margin as they could give her), you know it's in the bag.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Phased said:
When even RCP begrudgingly predicts a Clinton win (with about as narrow a margin as they could give her), you know it's in the bag.
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Never forget

For those who still maintain [sic] Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen.
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The FBI had secretly recorded conversations of a suspect in a public-corruption case talking about alleged deals the Clintons made, these people said. The agents listening to the recordings couldn’t tell from the conversations if what the suspect was describing was accurate, but it was, they thought, worth checking out.

Prosecutors thought the talk was hearsay and a weak basis to warrant aggressive tactics, like presenting evidence to a grand jury, because the person who was secretly recorded wasn’t inside the Clinton Foundation.

FBI investigators grew increasingly frustrated with resistance from the corruption prosecutors, and some executives at the bureau itself, to keep pursuing the case.
Click to expand...

The bases for FBI investigations are pretty interesting.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/secret-recordings-fueled-fbi-feud-in-clinton-probe-1478135518
 
G

Good Job Bob

Member
Some guy on Reddit is saying one of the two NH polls coming out tomorrow (the early one) is gonna be good for Trump, but not to worry because it's likely BS:

Figured i post this here to maybe stop some betwetting for tomorrow. Early in the morning is going to be a good Trump NH poll. Another NH poll will be coming out at 2pm I think, but one boston globe reporter said the early NH poll is going to "get people talking". Please dont make this place insufferable when Trump gets his first good NH poll in forever. There was a NH dem operative who said it will undoubtably be "outside reality". Remember right before the election Romney got a poll where he was winning MN. Just treat it like that or something
Click to expand...
 
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