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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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I

Iolo

Member
Manmademan said:
If you consider how heavily those demographics vote democratic, the numbers aren't meaningless at all.

You literally cannot spike the white vote high enough to overcome black voters going clinton 95-5, and (non cuban) latinos by 85-15 margins.
Click to expand...

Well, I hope so and I look forward to seeing if you are right.
 
P

Phased

Member
So is there going to be a new Discord then? I kinda liked having the election talk in the background while I was doing other stuff.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Syncytia said:
I'm at work and on my phone but here's what I could quickly find http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/
Click to expand...
Gabrielle Giffords is an elector for the Dem ticket

220px-Gabrielle_Giffords_official_portrait.jpg


Crying. Please win, Hillary.
 
V

Veelk

Banned
I've been busy over the last 2 days. Can anyone tell me what went wrong? Bedwetters can tell me why it means trump is gonna win and then other people can tell me why it doesn't matter at all and a few can even tell me if there are any hard statistics telling me the actual impact.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
Veelk said:
I've been busy over the last 2 days. Can anyone tell me what went wrong? Bedwetters can tell me why it means trump is gonna win and then other people can tell me why it doesn't matter at all and a few can even tell me if there are any hard statistics telling me the actual impact.
Click to expand...
Nothing actually changed.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Voysa Reezun said:
Split tickets where a number of voters vote for him and for Hillary?

We know that it's happening in OH. Maybe in FL as well? I think there was a post earlier today that indicated that some of this might be happening, but I don't remember who posted the info.
Click to expand...

the new latinos showing up are overwhelmingly puerto rican immigrants, not florida cubans.

Puerto Ricans aren't friendly to Rubio at ALL. His favorability with that bloc is about as high as republicans tend to do with latinos nationally....about 85/15, or lower.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Want some Florida hopium?

19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters

Let's look at the Orange numbers another way.

Dem + NPA = 72% of today's votes.

And among NPA reg voters in Orange, 58% are non-white.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Yeah, there's no way you can really look at this FL data and try to spell good things for Trump.

Independents are up a shitload and it's because so many of them are newly registered Hispanics who will never vote Trump.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Iolo said:
Well, I hope so and I look forward to seeing if you are right.
Click to expand...

Since the 2012 presidential election, Florida’s voter rolls have grown by 436,000 — and only 24 percent of that increase is from non-Hispanic white voters while non-whites grew by 76 percent, according to new voter registration numbers released in advance of the Aug. 30 primary.
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In Florida, the Hispanic vote is largely split between Republican-leaning Cuban-Americans in the Miami area — whose numbers are relatively dwindling — and Democratic-leaning non-Cuban Hispanics, especially Puerto Ricans, whose numbers are skyrocketing in the Orlando area. So by under-sampling Florida Latinos, surveys can misreport overall Latino support, often in favor of Republicans because Cuban-American voters tend to have landline phones and are easier to reach for pollsters.
In polls that survey only Hispanic voters, Clinton is dominating Trump. A smartphone-based survey of Florida Hispanics conducted by Florida International University professor Eduardo Gamarra last week showed that Clinton was beating Trump by historic amounts, 74-15 percent. A poll for Univision conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International in July found Clinton winning the Latino vote by 61 to 21 percent.
Click to expand...

http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ers-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717

No need to hope, I'm solid on this. It is impossible to spike the white vote high enough to get around this.

Latino decisions had an article out saying much the same thing a few months ago. No one who polls latinos bothers to separate out cubans, from puerto ricans, from mexicans, etc. It's all the same to them. Since cubans are generally easier to reach than other recent immigrants, polls tend to oversample them and give a much more favorable impression of republicans among florida hispanics than actually exists.

Correct for this, and Trump ends up getting annihilated by hilarious 75-15 margins.
 
T

TI82

Banned
So if Hillary wins: PA, VA, WI, CO and NH she wins the election even if Trump takes Florida. And she's basically guaranteed those.

200.gif
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
I would imagine it's very difficult to work in government without having opinions about stuff. "Nonpartisan" just means you're good at hiding your biases. It wouldn't surprise me at all to hear that there are political divisions within the FBI.
 
I

Iolo

Member
SexyFish said:
What makes you think the press will be invited? :)
Click to expand...

Like I said a while ago, he has to have a camera there recording his glorious win for posterity ... it's just a matter of whether the cameraperson makes it out alive.

Boke1879 said:
First off that's just no fun at all, but honestly they have to be preparing for a loss lol.
Click to expand...

I don't think Trump is prepared for a loss. It could break him.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
Since some of you are watching the baseball game, what's on the ground on the pitcher's mound to the right? Not the chalk bag, but the thing that almost looks like a vent.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
TI82 said:
So if Hillary wins: PA, VA, WI, CO and NH she wins the election even if Trump takes Florida. And she's basically guaranteed those.

200.gif
Click to expand...
Frankly I'd say she's favored in NC, FL and NV as well.

Cruising to a 320+EV victory. Hoping she can win IA, AZ and OH too.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
How did the FBI get tainted with conspiracy theories and right wing nonsense?
Click to expand...

CNN article said the 2016 election made people working in there partisan. They're reading Clinton Cash and shit, and want to pursue investigation. Justice Department shut that shit down. FBI became furious. Comey's statement in July made things worse, and then things came to a boil with the Weiner thing. In short, there is a rightwing partisan base inside FBI that's seeing everything as politically motivated (Justice Department shutting down Clinton Cash, Comey pushing back against indictment, Comey advising a quiet investigation, etc).

Someone mentioned purge the FBI earlier. I think we need to really clean up the house here. I don't know how you can fix stupid, but FBI's work environment is heavily partisan and political.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Manmademan said:
http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ers-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717

No need to hope, I'm solid on this. It is impossible to spike the white vote high enough to get around this.

Latino decisions had an article out saying much the same thing a few months ago. No one who polls latinos bothers to separate out cubans, from puerto ricans, from mexicans, etc. It's all the same to them. Since cubans are generally easier to reach than other recent immigrants, polls tend to oversample them and give a much more favorable impression of republicans among florida hispanics than actually exists.

Correct for this, and Trump ends up getting annihilated by hilarious 75-15 margins.
Click to expand...

I can't wait until the eventual Texas flip happens, because we'll get to relive some of this bewilderment from White talking-heads as their assumptions are blown to bits
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
These Doug Owens ads are a fucking joke. Who gives a fuck that Mia Love spent $1000 on air fare.

What a joke campaign this was. So disappointing.

Cleveland never talking about 3-1 again.
 
T

TI82

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Frankly I'd say she's favored in NC, FL and NV as well.

Cruising to a 320+EV victory. Hoping she can win IA, AZ and OH too.
Click to expand...

I was just going by the ones that had 90%+ ratings on NYT (CO is 86% though) but yeah those ones are likely as well. If she wins Florida, PA and VT she already won the election.

And they have dems controlling the senate at 60% which is good news too
 
U

User 463088

Banned
These early vote numbers in Florida today....

Palm Beach County, FL today -- almost 1500 more in-person votes than any other day this cycle.

And lastly, Dade County.
46,255 today
34,358 in person
*4K more than yesterday
*7k more than Sun
*9k more than Sat.
*10k more than Fri.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
I can't wait until the eventual Texas flip happens, because we'll get to relive some of this bewilderment from White talking-heads as their assumptions are blown to bits
Click to expand...

if hispanics voted anywhere near the levels that black and white voters do in elections (its about 50% vs. 65% or so I think) Texas would have flipped a LONG time ago.

i think this year might be the year when republicans finally poked the bear enough that it woke up.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
The good news is that the FBI can recommend indictment all they want. The DoJ is not going to go forward with it. The FBI can leak shit out all they want, but they don't call the shots.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
RustyNails said:
CNN article said the 2016 election made people working in there partisan. They're reading Clinton Cash and shit, and want to pursue investigation. Justice Department shut that shit down. FBI became furious. Comey's statement in July made things worse, and then things came to a boil with the Weiner thing. In short, there is a rightwing partisan base inside FBI that's seeing everything as politically motivated (Justice Department shutting down Clinton Cash, Comey pushing back against indictment, Comey advising a quiet investigation, etc).

Someone mentioned purge the FBI earlier. I think we need to really clean up the house here. I don't know how you can fix stupid, but FBI's work environment is heavily partisan and political.
Click to expand...

What can you do if 40% of the population believes of the vile shit spewed.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
It's sad seeing poligaffers getting banned before the election. You're letting them bait you when we have the clear win here. I'll admit I've been getting into it too with some people but that ends. No way am I missing out on the 8th.
 
S

streetsahead123

Banned
Keep in mind EV might not be the best indicator of overall turnout. Could just be a higher percentage of the electorate choosing to early vote. If democratic EV is higher than 2012 but we have less turnout on election day, that lead is negated.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Bowdz said:
The good news is that the FBI can recommend indictment all they want. The DoJ is not going to go forward with it. The FBI can leak shit out all they want, but they don't call the shots.
Click to expand...

Why the hell do you guys validate this shit so much? That's half the fucking reason they do this, to get people talking about INDICTMENT.
 
T

Teggy

Member
I don't know about that WS ad. Who hasn't seen those clips a million times already? Would rather something positive.

So Duke sent out a letter to the students complaining that voting was down since 2012. Guess what also changed since 2012? They moved the polling place off campus.
 
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