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[BadRNG]

https://twitter.com/noclador

does any of this make sense?

Was talked about earlier; seems to be related to that previous rumor of Trump being blackmailed due to honeypot sex operation by the Russians in the 80s. Now he's a puppet and stays in contact via secret server.

Basically left-wing version of the many Clinton conspiracies.

Spoiler

then again 2016

lol I had to google her. She's Eric Trump's wife.

Wow, they must be giving up on NC if that is who they send.

 

[Stinkles]

Who the fuck is Lara Trump?

Eric Trump's wife. A former personal trainer with a degree in pastry arts.

Was talked about earlier; seems to be related to that previous rumor of Trump being blackmailed due to honeypot sex operation by the Russians in the 80s. Now he's a puppet and stays in contact via secret server.

Basically left-wing version of the many Clinton conspiracies.

Spoiler

then again 2016

Wow, they must be giving up on NC if that is who they send.

She's a former Carolina native so not random but not top tier.

 

[Joeytj]

https://twitter.com/noclador

does any of this make sense?

Yes. He has been, for decades, pushing Soviet and Russian talking points in the U.S. through his celebrity, business and political life.

There's very little doubt that the USSR and Russia saw a perfect puppet for their talking points a long time ago. Him and Jill Stein.

 

[Barzul]

Who the fuck is Lara Trump?

Same thought I had lol

 

[Boke1879]

You know they're sitting there in Trump Tower pissed as fuck that they don't have more people on that map. Also, where is Pence on that list?

Oh, and Virginia the Sunday before the election. Sure okay. Good plan

Not even just more people, but they have to be upset this is the pile they have to pick from

 

[Gorger]

Florida is blue again on 538

It's bouncing back and forth quicker than a ping pong ball. Nevada is gaining some blue momentum 52% and rising.

 

[Diablos]

Yeah where the fuck is MIKEPENCE?

Does that guy have a voice for TV/radio or what

 

[gutter_trash]

It's suppose to be like 60F where I live on November 8th which is way above seasonal.

Global Warming is rigging the election

 

[sazzy]

Was talked about earlier; seems to be related to that previous rumor of Trump being blackmailed due to honeypot sex operation by the Russians in the 80s. Now he's a puppet and stays in contact via secret server.

Basically left-wing version of the many Clinton conspiracies.

Spoiler

then again 2016

thanks

well lets see what tomorrow brings

 

[TestOfTide]

the fbi is deep shit after the election. but we probably won't find out about it for years.

Fuck it. I don't care what bad shit they did in the past. The fact that the CIA is with Hillary and may be willing to defend her from these shitty FBI deplorables makes them great.

 

[Diablos]

Hasn't it always kinda been that CIA is left-wing and FBI is right-wing

 

[TheCrow]

Wow, they must be giving up on NC if that is who they send.

Maybe she'll bring along Trump's secret weapon again.

 

[Laevateinn]

https://twitter.com/noclador

does any of this make sense?

Trump might have been compromised by the KGB but I'm convinced he hates Japan because he's petty and lost an auction for the Casa Blanca piano.

 

[Boke1879]

Fuck it. I don't care what bad shit they did in the past. The fact that the CIA is with Hillary and may be willing to defend her from these shitty FBI deplorables makes them great.

Quite frankly. It makes sense the intelligence community would be for Hillary.

 

[Black Mamba]

So Quinnipac's polls have Hillary up in Ohio early voting like 26...in 2012 it was closer to 20.

From what I could find in North Carolina, which Q has it now about a 22 point spread, it was around 10.

Of course, this could be the result of more reliable voters that vote Dem voting earlier than 2012. But it's certainly not a bad result.

Also, if the numbers are true, then I'd have to imagine indies are breaking for Hillary at a good clip compared to 2012 for Obama.

 

[Barzul]

Hasn't it always kinda been that CIA is left-wing and FBI is right-wing

CIA is probably very DC interests focused. They probably have a greater big picture idea of where the country and world is. It's no surprise they'd lean left in this current climate. They probably see Trump as a real and present danger to their operations.

 

[Dierce]

Yes. He has been, for decades, pushing Soviet and Russian talking points in the U.S. through his celebrity, business and political life.

There's very little doubt that the USSR and Russia saw a perfect puppet for their talking points a long time ago. Him and Jill Stein.

What is so absurd about this is that they couldn't have picked someone more obviously on their corner. I could imagine them trying to get some covert puppet in there that pretends to at least give a damn about NATO but here we have this guy who demonizes the idea and sees it as a way to impose some mafia protection racket.

 

[Joeytj]

Hasn't it always kinda been that CIA is left-wing and FBI is right-wing

Ha, not during the Cold War. If anything, their roles were reversed a bit. But the CIA has always been the more realist agency since they are almost always overseas and outward looking. The FBI just deals with domestic threats.

I'm guessing the CIA has always known about Trump's ties to Russia but unless he does something illegal, there's little reason for the CIA to actually do anything about it. They aren't a law enforcement agency like the FBI.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Hasn't it always kinda been that CIA is left-wing and FBI is right-wing

The CIA worked directly with State, they know Clinton's capacity and they obviously think she won't fuck up their work.

The FBI want to be Capt. America and Elliot Ness so they can get a book deal.

I'll trust the folks who try desperately to keep their names out of the papers.

 

[royalan]

The cast of Homeland should cut an ad.

 

[gutter_trash]

for a guy who admires Joseph McCarthy, Trump sure does embrace a Soviet KGB thug now President of Russia

 

[Joeytj]

What is so absurd about this is that they couldn't have picked someone more obviously on their corner. I could imagine them trying to get some covert puppet in there that pretends to at least give a damn about NATO but here we have this guy who demonizes the idea and sees it as a way to impose some mafia protection racket.

Because, Trump is a unique figure. He has power, money and charisma, but not really smart and always protected by his privilege. Trump is as gullible as they come, all you have to do is play to his ego and money and Putin immediately saw that vulnerability in him. Romney, McCain, Rubio, Jeb or anyone else for that matter would have never even come close to Putin.

 

[Strimei]

Election Day forecast as of this evening:

GLORIOUS.

Phew. My mother always goes on about how any inclement weather tends to drive down democrats from voting (she's worked many elections so I figure she must have seen it in action), so this should calm her (and me).

 

[Iolo]

It would be funny if the lack of public polling really is due to more pollsters being monopolized for private polls, putting a candidate who relies on public polling at a disadvantage. A sort of denial of service attack. It would be even funnier if it was deliberate.

 

[tuxfool]

for a guy who admires Joseph McCarthy, Trump sure does embrace a Soviet KGB thug now President of Russia

Trump has no concern for ideology, just methodology.

 

[jbug617]

So is Palin still a draw?

 

[ampere]

I'm liking the Gaga album

Kev...

 

[BreezyLimbo]

Anecdotal, but I guess you can only eat so much shit before you quit

Harrison County, TX GOP Chair Resigns Position; Says He Can't Support Trump



Edit: Beaten

He's alright in my book. Good for him.

Spoiler

He probably just saw the writing on the wall.

 

[sazzy]

What does partisan non-response mean?

 

[Carpe Carnim]

It would be funny if the lack of public polling really is due to more pollsters being monopolized for private polls, putting a candidate who relies on public polling at a disadvantage. A sort of denial of service attack. It would be even funnier if it was deliberate.

I like this thought. If Trump weren't a broke douche-canoe he might have hired actual professionals earlier to strategize. Luckily, he's a pompous blowhard without a lick of strategy, only ego-fueled tactics

 

[Dierce]

Because, Trump is a unique figure. He has power, money and charisma, but not really smart and always protected by his privilege. Trump is as gullible as they come, all you have to do is play to his ego and money and Putin immediately saw that vulnerability in him. Romney, McCain, Rubio, Jeb or anyone else for that matter would have never even come close to Putin.

And this is precisely part of what makes him so dangerous. Establishment republican figures can't control him even if they are against some of his ideas. At the end of the day he will do as he pleases, or truth be told, what Bannon pleases to the benefit of Putin.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Trump in Virginia baffles me.

He's "seen" some "internals" that have him "close" in "Virginia"

 

[Joeytj]

Honestly, I'm feeling more sympathetic for Comey now that we know about that rogue Breitbart-loving, Hillary-hating faction within the FBI.

Maybe that's why Obama chose him? He knew there were some troublesome factions within the FBI and he put Comey in charge in order to calm them down?

 

[Carpe Carnim]

What does partisan non-response mean?

Bad news means people don't want to talk politics, but don't change their voting intentions.

Like not visiting news websites when your candidate had bad news cycles

 

[Joeytj]

What does partisan non-response mean?

Pro-Hillary and Pro-Trump (heck, pro-Johnson or Stein too) voters don't feel like responding to polls when their candidate isn't doing well.

Like ^^^^ Carpe Carnim says, it's like not in the mood to visit FiveThirtyEight in moments like these...

 

[Voysa Reezun]

I see Sarah Palin is finally getting to go on the stump to Michigan, eight years later!

I'd be happy for her, but she's an abhorrent human being, so I'm not.

 

[Black Mamba]

Nate Cohn posted this:

Lends credence to the argument that response rates matter. Registration is not changing in 3 weeks.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Honestly, I'm feeling more sympathetic for Comey now that we know about that rogue Breitbart-loving, Hillary-hating faction within the FBI.

Maybe that's why Obama chose him? He knew there were some troublesome factions within the FBI and he put Comey in charge in order to calm them down?

It doesn't seem to have helped much.

 

[TestOfTide]

Hasn't it always kinda been that CIA is left-wing and FBI is right-wing

But weren't the CIA the original NSA before we had an NSA though?

Like wasn't it the CIA that used to cook up crazy schemes like giving Castro a Cigar laced with Acid?

But yeah I guess it makes sense that the CIA is looking at all the Putin-Trump shit and getting pretty pissed off at the intelligence briefings they have to give Trump.

 

[BadRNG]

What does partisan non-response mean?

From what I understand, it can lead to systematic polling errors.

Actual answer; the idea is that during certain news cycles a specific side may be less willing to answer polls. This can result in phantom swings because someone doesn't want to talk about their candidate, but in actuality the voters aren't changing their mind, it's just the people willing to do the poll are.

 

[NeoXChaos]

IA

Trump 44
Hillary 41

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/public-safety/trump-clings-to-small-edge-in-iowa-20161103

 

[Joeytj]

It doesn't seem to have helped much.

Touché... It could be worse?

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Nate Cohn posted this:

Lends credence to the argument that response rates matter. Registration is not changing in 3 weeks.

UNSKEW! UNSKEW!

This makes perfect sense, and why I think Hillary +7 is perfectly doable next week

 

[RustyNails]

Nate Cohn posted this:

Lends credence to the argument that response rates matter. Registration is not changing in 3 weeks.

So what's going on "behind the scene"?

 

[whyamihere]

So what's going on "behind the scene"?

It's partisan non-response.

 

[User 463088]

I will also say, in that NH poll, the weighted numbers were really all over the place. Somehow, they completely tanked the under 30 vote, they increased the number of people 65+ by 10 points, and college educated people were way under sampled.

If that was the case, I can't see how they're tied.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

So what's going on "behind the scene"?

Clinton voters checking out, putting their heads down, cleaning up their piss stained mattresses?

We are all ready for this to end!

 

[Diablos]

I will also say, in that NH poll, the weighted numbers were really all over the place. Somehow, they completely tanked the under 30 vote, they increased the number of people 65+ by 10 points, and college educated people were way under sampled.

If that was the case, I can't see how they're tied.

It's a rigged system

 

[Black Mamba]

I will also say, in that NH poll, the weighted numbers were really all over the place. Somehow, they completely tanked the under 30 vote, they increased the number of people 65+ by 10 points, and college educated people were way under sampled.

If that was the case, I can't see how they're tied.

Response rates!

Like, there's so much evidence out there that makes this case I find it weird that pollsters don't try to fix it.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's kind of weird how few Bravely Default Trump jokes there are.

Bravely Default seems like it should be the name of Trump's final biography. That or My Struggle.