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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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U

User 463088

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
I'm confident that Hillary will be our next president and feel good about the senate. But I'm in camp modest expectations as well.

No House, no Texas, no Georgia, maybe even no Iowa, Ohio or Arizona.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if the final EV tally is only 323 for Clinton (Obama 2012 + NC - IA - OH).
Click to expand...

Interestingly, I've said 323 (or 322 but I'm feeling better about ME-2) for a while. At the same time, I still there's possibly a chance that a few states may tip our way. Trump has no ground game whatsoever. We don't know how that impacts what is going to happen because it's kind of unprecedented.

But, and I know this wasn't your point, I also don't think it's necessary to shit on people for having a bit of hope? (I hate the word hopium with a passion but whatever)

Except for the oppo shit. That's just pointless.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Uh oh, more hacked emails. But this time, a hack of Russia by Ukraine!

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/uk...hacked-revealing-putin-aide-s-secrets-n673956

A Ukrainian group calling itself Cyber Hunta has released more than a gigabyte of emails and other material from the office of one of Vladimir Putin's top aides, Vladislav Surkov, that show Russia's fingerprints all over the separatist movement in Ukraine.

While the Kremlin has denied the relationship between Moscow and the separatists, the emails show in great detail how Russia controlled virtually every detail of the separatist effort in the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, which has torn the country apart and led to a Russian takeover of Crimea.

And unlike the reported Russian hack of the Democratic National Committee, the Ukrainian hack reached deep into the office of the Russian president.
Click to expand...
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
NYCmetsfan said:
I mean they can but they should be called out for the things they lambast the other side from doing.

Its also why this place becomes an ecochamber. The oppo (trump n-word) thing was a part of it as well. It was exactly like the white tape.
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People in here could stand to dial it back. Anything remotely negative about the election prospects gets shut down.
 
S

Syncytia

Member
Just in from r/The_Donald, on how to find voter fraud

I wonder what would happen if we had a couple centipedes at random polling stations on Broward county on voting day doing a voter fraud test.
1) bring a phone (video) and a megaphone
2) once an hour yell at everyone in line you are checking for voter fraud, cheer if you're voting for Hillary. Cheer if you're voting for Trump.
3) it would be pretty damning if these unscientific results were in stark contrast to the actual election results. Especially if we can get several people to do this hourly at many polling stations.
Click to expand...

I'M CHECKING FOR VOTER FRAUD! WHO ARE YOU VOTING FOR
 
R

rjinaz

Member
adam387 said:
Interestingly, I've said 323 (or 322 but I'm feeling better about ME-2) for a while. At the same time, I still there's possibly a chance that a few states may tip our way. Trump has no ground game whatsoever. We don't know how that impacts what is going to happen because it's kind of unprecedented.

But, and I know this wasn't your point, I also don't think it's necessary to shit on people for having a bit of hope? (I hate the word hopium with a passion but whatever)

Except for the oppo shit. That's just pointless.
Click to expand...

I agree. Besides that, these threads are always roller coasters with people going up and down. It's not like the enthusiasm is out of control. We're not pundits and we're not in a professional setting. We are enthusiasts so enthusiasm is fine. I think the people that go crazy tend to get called out. If people want to think Texas will flip, I think that's perfectly reasonable considering some polls have her statistically tied. Now if people start throwing around Arkansas, probably time to calm it a bit.
 
I

Iolo

Member
A Human Becoming said:
People in here could stand to dial it back. Anything remotely negative about the election prospects gets shut down.
Click to expand...

Just like it doesn't matter if Nate Silver's model fluctuates up or down by a few points in a given day, neither does it matter what hopium PoliGAF chooses to inject ourselves with, ultimately. There's no indication that Hillary's campaign is overconfident and there's every indication that Trump's campaign is, and that's what matters.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
ampere said:
I think AZ is more likely than both OH and IA. Demographic shift is much more in our favor
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Early voting for Arizona showing the 30k Republican lead has me a bit concerned. I'm not so sure it will flip. I was pretty certain Democrat early voting would be higher based on the pot initiative alone.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Maybe Hillary promised Biden SOS in agreement that he wouldn't run for President, House of Cards-style!

Clever girl.
 
M

mo60

Member
rjinaz said:
Early voting for Arizona showing the 30k Republican lead has me a bit concerned. I'm not so sure it will flip. I was pretty certain Democrat early voting would be higher based on the pot initiative alone.
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They are barely leading AZ in terms of raw percentages so I think the democrats will be fine there.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Syncytia said:
Just in from r/The_Donald, on how to find voter fraud



I'M CHECKING FOR VOTER FRAUD! WHO ARE YOU VOTING FOR
Click to expand...

The supporters that yell the loudest wins the election for their candidate.

Donald Trump unbiased, uncorrupt election system approved.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
subrock said:
Yikes, I don't know how I feel about escalating the tit for tat, even if it does seem like fitting revenge
Click to expand...

I'm fine with this. Now if Ukraine hacked a Republican like Trump, I would not be ok with this. This though, they have it coming.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
These Huckabee contradictions are killing me.

The Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. "Unconstitutional." (Friday).

The Supreme Court decision that saved President Obama's health-care law. "Ignore[d] the Constitution." (Thursday).

The Supreme Court, in general. "They must be committed to...applying the original meaning of the Constitution." (Friday)

The Constitution, because it allows Supreme Court justices to serve for life. "I will fight for term limits." (Friday)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...1/81-things-that-mike-huckabee-has-denounced/
 
S

ShironRedshift

Member
rjinaz said:
I agree. Besides that, these threads are always roller coasters with people going up and down. It's not like the enthusiasm is out of control. We're not pundits and we're not in a professional setting. We are enthusiasts so enthusiasm is fine. I think the people that go crazy tend to get called out. If people want to think Texas will flip, I think that's perfectly reasonable considering some polls have her statistically tied. Now if people start throwing around Arkansas, probably time to calm it a bit.
Click to expand...
Like, yeah. In the case of Texas specifically, there are multiple polls now that seem to indicate that it's definitely in play. Hillary probably won't actually win it because she has next to no infrastructure in the state, has bought almost nothing in terms of ads (and it's too expensive of a market to really make a push in anyway), etc. But yet despite that the polls indicate it's in play anyway. She probably won't win it, but she definitely won't win if people give up and treat it as a lost cause without even fighting it.

There's no harm in being hopeful and wishing for the best and in fact on the contrary if it gets them to do their best to fight for it and show up to vote, and even better if it motivates them to phonebank or canvas because of the potential. I see literally no reason to shit on people for being hopeful that she could actually win a swing-state (of course, it's crazy to call Texas a swing-state, but that's what it appears to be since it's within 5 points). It's unlikely, but it goes from being unlikely to flat out impossible if people don't try. And if it doesn't work, so what? No harm, no foul. People still got out and voted, she still wins, whatever.

I mean, it would be a different matter if we were talking about West Virginia or a state where there's no evidence of Clinton having any momentum. But Texas does have that evidence, so well, yeah... Just let people be positive for a change, even if naively show. Not often we even get to talk about scenarios like this being so much as conceivable, so let people have their fun, please~ :D
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
I would say in the case of Texas is that we shouldn't expect it to go blue right now, but the seeds have been planted for the possibility for the future. It's good to see polls come out that have Hillary go neck and neck with Trump in Texas, but we should stay leveled headed when it comes to this stuff.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
The Texas and the house stuff is not gonna happen unless there is another tape worse than the first

Its also, bad poll ignore or unskew, good poll, go apeshit. It just is too much like the trumpkins finding the data that fits
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You sure do love these false equivalences. Sometimes it's ok to dislike actions without comparing them to some extreme group on the other side.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I don't really think Texas is going blue but honestly being too close to call is good enough for me especially if it ends up being within 1-2 points
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
adam387 said:
Historical Election Night Coverage
This YouTube channel is great. It has full coverage from different years. I'm watching 1976 tonight until I fall asleep.

My fiance is really, really patient. I should marry him.
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I like seeing historical election coverage, for a lot of reasons. One is just a general interest in political history, but it's also interesting to see how things have changed both politically and how its covered. If you watch 1992 coverage, you'll see them making a big deal out of Clinton winning states like Vermont and New Jersey which had been considered safe Republican up until then. In 1980 NBC at least announced near the very beginning of their coverage that they were projecting a Reagan victory based on exit polls, which they would never do now (though it's often possible to read between the lines to get a sense of how they expect the night to go based on exit polls).

You mentioned 1976. It's a little thing, but ABC has the blue and yellow (as opposed to red) map that year. What if we had ended up with the terminology "blue states" and "yellow states?"
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Shitting on people for hoping for Texas after the polls have tightened there, and with knowledge that Clinton might have at least some semblance of ground game, and seeing the numbers coming out of some of the bigger counties in Texas, is essentially just being a dick to be a dick.

As is comparing the speculation about a Trump tape which was driven by people who worked on The Apprentice itself and which is supported by other stories of Trump's actions on the set of the show (including another sexual assault charge!) to the GOP/Clinton hopes for a nebulously-asserted "Whitey Tape" in 2008.

Some of this policing of people's ideas and posts just comes off as the type of phony "hey, look how level-headed I am" stuff that I don't think serves anyone very well.
 
rokkerkory

rokkerkory

Member
ShadowSwordmaster said:
I would say in the case of Texas is that we shouldn't expect it to go blue right now, but the seeds have been planted for the possibility for the future. It's good to see polls come out that have Hillary go neck and neck with Trump in Texas, but we should stay leveled headed when it comes to this stuff.
Click to expand...

give texas another 8 years, it'll be blue
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
To play Jon Ralston and looking at the early vote in Nevada:

At the end of Week 1 in 12:

Dem advantage in Clark: 39,786
Dem advantage in Washoe: 861
Dem advantage in state: 40,473

What these numbers and margins from 12 would be with the registration growth from 12:

Clark: 46,459
Washoe: 1,007
State: 47,353

As of now (there is still one more day to go, 2 in Clark):

Dem advantage in Clark (missing today's numbers): 48,901
Dem advantage in Washoe: 2,459
Dem advantage in state (missing Clark/some rurals): 24,099

So basically, uh, this could be very bad for the GOP. From Saturday to Wednesday, Democrats are already where they should be to match the Clark numbers from 12's first week. With two more days, they could easily pad those numbers into something that the GOP couldn't really come back from.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Which state do people here expect to be the most off from the polls? I haven't looked at historical records. My guess is Nevada. I read before it's a very hard state to poll, especially for Latinos.
 
8

8 X 11 Printer Paper

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Which state do people here expect to be the most off from the polls? I haven't looked at historical records. My guess is Nevada. I read before it's a very hard state to poll, especially for Latinos.
Click to expand...

Nevada without a doubt, it's a state that no one can really poll right due to the nature of the state and its demographics. That's why unless Nev had an average of +5 for Trump, I had no reason to freak out about that state.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
Which state do people here expect to be the most off from the polls? I haven't looked at historical records. My guess is Nevada. I read before it's a very hard state to poll, especially for Latinos.
Click to expand...

I feel like Nevada seems very much like a 5-7 point win for Hillary from what we've seen so far.
 
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