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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Pyrokai

Member
Basically, after George W Bush won a second term, he proclaimed that his win gave him a "mandate" to push through whatever he wanted.

Unsurprisingly, Republicans will always deny Democratic POTUS's a mandate, even if they win by more points than Bush won by in 2004.

If somehow Democrats take back the House, expect Dems to loudly make clear that the Electorate gave them the right to push a "mandate".

So is it like a formal thing where it's officially implemented and agreed upon or something? Or was this just W saying it's his right to push through policy because he won? Just something politicians say?
 
So is it like a formal thing where it's officially implemented and agreed upon or something? Or was this just W saying it's his right to push through policy because he won? Just something politicians say?

It's nothing formal. A president has the same powers whether they win by .5% or 15%.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Can someone explain to me what a "mandate" is? They talked about it on yesterday's NPR Politics podcast but didn't bother explaining what it was. Dominico even called it the "M word".

I tried researching it but I just don't understand. What is it? Does it happen every election? Is it formal? I literally can't figure anything out.

It is inherently nebulous, since no one can cleary say when a mandate occurs and when it does not. In general terms it is when a candidate wins decisively - by relatively large numbers - and brings seats with them in at least some decent numbers.

That is called a "mandate", which is supposed to mean Americans spoke in a clear voice about what direction they want the country to go in. Used to give presidents a honeymoon phase. Now? Republicans just ignore it and say fuck you anyway.
 

Pyrokai

Member
its mostly political fiction.

A "mandate" is when a candidate has a large or overwhelming margin of victory in a presidential election.

in theory, a large victory would mean the minority party is much more likely to compromise with the majority party and the incoming president and cooperate with legislation since that's what "the voters" demanded by large margins.

in practice, the GOP is so dysfunctional mandates don't matter. Gerrymandering protects the house and many senators are in safe states that are unlikely to go democratic. Conservatives are also hemmed into conservative media outlets that only feed them party propaganda, so there's no risk of the media taking them to task for it.

when obama won in 2008 with record breaking turnout, the GOP doubled down on obstruction rather than bend to the will of "the voters."

Oh, okay. I think I get it a little more. So is it something that can only happen if it's a wave election?

How weird.....
 

Zach

Member
There's a house a couple blocks over from me that has a freezer in the middle of the yard with TRUMP spray-painted on all sides. Pretty amazing.
 

CCS

Banned
Oh, okay. I think I get it a little more. So is it something that can only happen if it's a wave election?

How weird.....

It's not an actual thing, just a concept. To quote a dictionary definition:

Mandate - the authority to carry out a policy, regarded as given by the electorate to a party or candidate that wins an election.

Basically, if you win an election, than that gives you a mandate for your policies.
 

Hazmat

Member
So is it like a formal thing where it's officially implemented and agreed upon or something? Or was this just W saying it's his right to push through policy because he won? Just something politicians say?

It's just the winner saying that they won by such a large margin that the people clearly want them in charge. It's them saying "I'm really popular, let me do what I want."
 

Cyanity

Banned
Cv3BWh3XYAAhU4b.jpg

wow
 

Eidan

Member
Oh, okay. I think I get it a little more. So is it something that can only happen if it's a wave election?

How weird.....
As was mentioned, in 08 Obama won in a landslide, and Democrats swept in the House and Senate. See Republicans' reaction to that loss in subsequent years to see how much a "mandate" matters.
 

Emarv

Member
If Hillary ends up with just the senate, can she pass the public option? Or will she need the house?

She'll need the House and a lot of congressmen and women to be a lot more courageous than they would normally be. Because it would be scrutinized forever.
 

JP_

Banned
If Hillary ends up with just the senate, can she pass the public option? Or will she need the house?
We had the house and senate and obamacare had to be gutted for it to barely pass. Dems would need a dominating position to get single payer passed because even some dems will vote against it.
 
mandate was just a thing when the clearly closeted Ken Mehlman was RNC chief and was helping bang the drum for the state constitutional marriage amendments in the mid 2000s.
 

Teggy

Member
There was a lot of bedwetting on Twitter this morning about the ABC tracking poll - well, maybe not bedwetting so much as reporters getting excited about their TIGHTENING narrative.
 
She'll need the House and a lot of congressmen and women to be a lot more courageous than they would normally be. Because it would be scrutinized forever.
yeah if we won the house in a wave election, you'd get a lot of bedwetting (probably single term) dem reps who wouldn't wanna touch healthcare with a ten foot stick. i believe someone mentioned this in the last thread.
 
There was a lot of bedwetting on Twitter this morning about the ABC tracking poll.

It's probably got a weird sample from one day poisioning the aggregate. Not trying to go totally unskew but this seems to happen both ways at least once with tracking polls every cycle.

yeah if we won the house in a wave election, you'd get a lot of bedwetting (probably single term) dem reps who wouldn't wanna touch healthcare with a ten foot stick. i believe someone mentioned this in the last thread.


The only way you get people to do bold things in the House is to let them know that if they don't play ball then they can have fun fending off a primary challenger and/or raising their own money for their re-election. The goal of most congresspeople is to get re-elected each cycle with minimal amount of work needed-threaten that and they will consider playing ball.
This is why things like earmarks were so useful-for relatively cheap cost you could get congresspeople to buy into legislation with a carrot.

I'd love to have them back, provided that they have attribution (i.e. the person who added the earmark to the bill should be clearly identifiable/auditable)
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
There was a lot of bedwetting on Twitter this morning about the ABC tracking poll - well, maybe not bedwetting so much as reporters getting excited about their TIGHTENING narrative.

This happens every time Trump goes ten minutes without saying the worst thing ever. Then he can't help himself and bam, toilet again. I'm betting the n word tape is the only thing that could hold through these blips.
 
yeah if we won the house in a wave election, you'd get a lot of bedwetting (probably single term) dem reps who wouldn't wanna touch healthcare with a ten foot stick. i believe someone mentioned this in the last thread.

I'm not sure I buy that, since it's a given that the districts are SO gerrymandered that a wave election is the only way those people are getting elected at all. 2018 is going to be massive losses no matter what happens, there's no way around it.

no amount of pandering to conservatives is going to keep democrats from losing the house in 2 years, so you might as well go all in on passing the most progressive legislation you can, using that to run again in 2020, and hope you carry enough local districts to redraw the map to something that will allow you to hold for the next decade.
 

Emarv

Member
The reason she didn't take a stronger stand on ACA is because she knows the political capital it would take to pass another healthcare bill and what that would do to her presidency. Her best bet is to continue to improve and expand it and hold off on major reform until later.

I honestly would not expect major healthcare changes for another term or two, and that's being optimistic. Healthcare is an albatross for most of these congressmen.
 

tuffy

Member
Why did the polls seem so variable this week?
Why do the polls seem so variable this week? The basic answer is that there were a lot of them. Outliers are an inevitable consequence.

Trump is going on about three polls that he likes best. They are all favorable to him – IBD/TIPP, L.A.Times/USC/Dornsife, and Rasmussen. They show a tie or a small Trump lead. Meanwhile, for some reason he is ignoring polls that show Hillary Clinton 12 to 14 points ahead. Huh, it’s so weird that he would do that.
Don’t be like journalists who run off after the most extreme report – that is ridiculous. The only honest thing to do is to take a median or average of all the polls you can get your hands on. Right now, the collected wisdom of all the poll is that Hillary Clinton is ahead by a median of 6 percentage points nationally. Not 4 points, and not 8 points. Her lead is 6.0 +/- 0.9 % (n=12 polls over the period October 20-26, median +/- estimated one-sigma standard error).

Do I have any criticisms of those pollsters? No. They are experts in their field (except maybe Rasmussen – they need a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to repair their methods). There’s nothing wrong with being an outlier – every year it has to be somebody. The consolation prize is that lots of people pay attention to an outlier.
 

Iolo

Member
It's probably got a weird sample from one day poisioning the aggregate. Not trying to go totally unskew but this seems to happen both ways at least once with tracking polls every cycle.

It's probably Republicans coming home, Hillary is basically steady while Trump is gaining back voters he lost after the debates. The less Rs see of Trump the more they can rationalize voting for him.
 
Hey, can anyone find that Duncan Hunter anecdote about adding something about women in the military as a poison pill to some bill, and then finding out that people actually thought it was a good idea? Because that's basically what the #DraftOurDaughters hashtag is like right now.

Edit: Or maybe it wasn't Duncan Hunter. All I remember is that it was some Republican in the House and it came up in one of the previous PoliGAF threads this fall.
 
You can keep stating facts, but that's not how it feels in America. It doesn't feel like growth. Unless it's a GOP president and then anything above 0% percent both feels like growth and factually is.

Isn't this kind of true? Quite a lot of red states have terrible economies. People in Kansas don't really care that tech jobs are booming in big cities in states that are half a country away.
 

Shig

Strap on your hooker ...
Trump has $16m cash on hand vs Hillary's $153m

This is straight up comical at this point. Wtf is he doing. How's he going to pay for stuff.

There's going to be a lot of stiffed ex-Trump staffers and operations guys. I can already smell the class action lawsuit.
"I worked for this guy that stiffed a bunch of people in the past and didn't get my paycheck! How unforeseen!"

Ironically, not paying the employees of a losing campaign will probably be the most honest application of the "maybe they did a bad job" claim that Trump likes to throw around.
 

Bowdz

Member
It's probably Republicans coming home, Hillary is basically steady while Trump is gaining back voters he lost after the debates. The less Rs see of Trump the more they can rationalize voting for him.

Yeah, that Dem pollster tweet a few pages back Seema spot on. Soft R's supporting Trump flee in the aftermath of big events and then slowly start coming home as the furor dies down.
 
Honest question--is there a decent daily tracking poll in existence? ABC's is brand new and already looks weird. Ras and USC/LA are trash of course. Gallup embarrassed themselves in 2012 and had to chuck theirs. Research 2000 ran one for Daily Kos in '08 I think and it turned out to be a scam, ha ha.
 
I'm not sure I buy that, since it's a given that the districts are SO gerrymandered that a wave election is the only way those people are getting elected at all. 2018 is going to be massive losses no matter what happens, there's no way around it.

no amount of pandering to conservatives is going to keep democrats from losing the house in 2 years, so you might as well go all in on passing the most progressive legislation you can, using that to run again in 2020, and hope you carry enough local districts to redraw the map to something that will allow you to hold for the next decade.
This definitely makes sense but it would still probably give a lot of them pause.
 
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