Support NeoGAF

[Grief.exe]

I'm going to attribute Murphy's rise from the grave solely to Obama's star. He annihilated Rubio and said great things about Murphy in that Miami rally.

He's going back to Florida today and drag Murphy's scrub ass across the finish line. Based Obama.

Obama will fix this nation from shear will alone, dragging the Republican base and politicians into the 21st century by force.

 

[RustyNails]

I need a murphy poll with him ahead to think he's got a shot or like 2 more ties

Trendz.

Besides, PPP's accuracy was legendary in 2012. They got all the races correct within 1% or so. I remember reading about it.

 

[plagiarize]

How did it actually turn out?

The PS3 had not sold more than the Xbox 360 by the end of 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or 2011. Or 2012. Or 2013.

I think you get the idea.

 

[NeoXChaos]

So Poligaf hasnt talked about governor's races yet.

Flip: NC, IN

Hold: MO, WV, MT

R could Flip: VT, NH

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I'm absolutely certain that this is the post where it was first used, in reference to this graph:

Spoiler

The image link in that post is broken now.

This is the day you have won the entire internet! Good find!

 

[Boke1879]

Dems will use this "tightening" narrative to continue to push turnout.

Meanwhile Trump will keep saying Shit is rigged or gloat. All the while not pushing his base to get and vote or bringing anyone in.

It's still looking like. 5-7 point race. Anyone who thought she would be leading by 12 was nose deep in the hopium.

 

[BotoxAgent]

C'mon Murphy....do this!!

Hopefully GOTV puts him over the top.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Trendz.

Besides, PPP's accuracy was legendary in 2012. They got all the races correct within 1% or so. I remember reading about it.

I'm find with trends if he goes up.

I think bams is the best surrogate for him. He really tears rubio down and has the trust of the people he needs to not cross ballot

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Powerful counties are a southern thing, and can stay southern for all I'm concerned.

Yeah, can confirm. It's mostly a rural thing though. In Mississippi, our largest city has roughly 6% of the state's population in it. Most county seats are minuscule, so the counties have to basically combine themselves into one entity to have any leverage at all.

I've labeled family, "friends" (who are now no longer so), as all these things for the choices they make. I have been met with repsonses like yours and others who suggest "name calling is only going to divide us, dude!". It doesn't matter. You are defined by the people you surround yourself with.

If you carry out your day to day life with a racist friend, shrugged at his antics and justified your relationship with said person with "Ohhhhhh, he's such a nice guy and has done some nice things for me", it doesn't matter, Brock. You enable that behavior and are complicit in it as well.

This. And in my opinion, there's really no difference between "I'm a racist" and "Racism is acceptable as long as I get mine." If you support white supremacists, then you're a white supremacist.

Yeah, that Dem pollster tweet a few pages back Seema spot on. Soft R's supporting Trump flee in the aftermath of big events and then slowly start coming home as the furor dies down.

The best part of every round of polling has been the range that each candidate falls in. Clinton never dips below Trump's ceiling, and that ceiling has always held. Trump legitimately can't do it.

eh...I have some issues with it.



there are certain polls that we know are bunk. not because of random chance, but because they're designed to be as favorable to republicans as possible. We're in an era where polls themselves drive headlines and fundraising- it's inevitable you'll end up with some of them that are designed to produce a particular result, accuracy be damned. That's not an outlier, that's dishonesty.

If you have on one hand a group that's honest in their results with some degree of error, and another that's simply lying about their results because it's profitable to do so, the "actual answer" isn't "between the two" you ignore the result that's dishonest. Or to put it another way, If Fox news and breitbart are saying 2+2= 8, and CBS/ABC/NPR/CNN/MSNBC/WSJ is saying 2+2=4, the answer isn't 6.

Gravis, rasmussen, and IBD are in that latter category, and they're in that category EVERY cycle. There's no attempt to correct methodology, they simply repeat terrible results every 4 years- and IBD goes out of their way to try to hide this by arbitrarily moving their final polls and touting the "accuracy".

LA Times at least seems to just have had the bad luck to get a terrible sample, so their "experiment" didn't really pan out well. Gallup had awful methodology in 2012, admitted their assumptions were bad, and had the sense to take 2016 off. Those other three, not so much. At some point you stop reporting them and giving them the attention.

also:



"totally up in the air" seems a bit conservative. It's leaning D at this point.

Good post. I strongly dislike the idea that we should just average all the polls and then move on. To illustrate, I always say that I've conducted 20 polls myself, and they all show Trump with a 40 point lead. My sample size is 1000 people.

Do you throw my 20 polls in? Of course not. Checking my methodology, you might find a ton of issues there. But some people here would consider that unskewing, and these people would end up with a garbage aggregate instead of a good one.

 

[nature boy]

Stupid question: is Murphy a true democrat or Liebermann/Bayh like democrat?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So Poligaf hasnt talked about governor's races yet.

Flip: NC, IN

Hold: MO, WV, MT

R could Flip: VT, NH

TBF they're not doing much damage there but NC and IN are 17 million people that are going to be better off. And WV isn't a flip. Its D now.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

So Poligaf hasnt talked about governor's races yet.

Flip: NC, IN

Hold: MO, WV, MT

R could Flip: VT, NH

I'm less confident in NC since the race has stupidly gotten tight despite McCrory's commerce secretary saying HB2 "hasn't move the needle" economically (in defiance of data, earlier estimates put the economic damage at $5 billion per year before the NBA, NCAA, ACC and others removed sporting events) and since this claim, yet another company has skipped North Carolina over HB2, which could have brought 730 jobs and an estimated $250 million in economic impact.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports Jon Ralston Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))
Not quite yet, but pretty close. If Democrats get up to 60,000 or so raw vote lead in Clark, which looks likely, bye bye Trump.

Ground game at work.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Stupid question: is Murphy a true democrat or Liebermann/Bayh like democrat?

Empty suit. Not a Liebermann or Bayh. Like a decent dem. He's tacted left on most issues, very good on immigration, and cuba

some iffy stuff with the ACA and pro-business but that seems more a product of donor pleasing and not a real conviction like Bayh

 

[Fragamemnon]

Obama is also the only politician big enough to cut across the entire Florida news markets and get his message out everywhere in a single rally. And his message comes across like laser guided bombs vs. the usual disorganized messaging that FL Dems usually put out.

The other reason to pile on FL like this is because Trump's campaign there is a complete disaster. Rick Scott set up complete incompetent to run the campaign and they did nothing for months in a state that requires a massive amount of mobilization. It's more likely that Dems can find more marginal voters and turn them out in FL vs. other states where there's a better campaign presence.

Speaking of campaign infrastructure, what's with this WaPo article re: Trump's secret analytics firm:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...64a706-9611-11e6-9b7c-57290af48a49_story.html

Everything about this screams "suck money from donors into Mercer's circle" and that these guys are dealing out the big data science equivalent of vaporware.

 

[AndyD]

The PS3 had not sold more than the Xbox 360 by the end of 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or 2011. Or 2012. Or 2013.

I think you get the idea.

Yep, had forgotten how the early days went. Though that thread was gold. I'm sure I saod some stupid stuff in it too.

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/06/analysis-xbox-360-poised-to-pass-wii-in-us-sales-by-years-end/

 

[whyamihere]

I'm less confident in NC since the race has stupidly gotten tight despite McCrory's commerce secretary saying HB2 "hasn't move the needle" economically (in defiance of data, earlier estimates put the economic damage at $5 billion per year before the NBA, NCAA, ACC and others removed sporting events) and since this claim, yet another company has skipped North Carolina over HB2, which could have brought 730 jobs and an estimated $250 million in economic impact.

It's tighter, but Cooper still enjoys a decent lead (for NC) and I expect that to continue.

Also, it looks like we're going to win the NH governorship. I still can't believe we might lose the VT one. Fucking New Englanders.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Obama is also the only politician big enough to cut across the entire Florida news markets and get his message out everywhere in a single rally. And his message comes across like laser guided bombs vs. the usual disorganized messaging that FL Dems usually put out.

The other reason to pile on FL like this is because Trump's campaign there is a complete disaster. Rick Scott set up complete incompetent to run the campaign and they did nothing for months in a state that requires a massive amount of mobilization. It's more likely that Dems can find more marginal voters and turn them out in FL vs. other states where there's a better campaign presence.

Speaking of campaign infrastructure, what's with this WaPo article re: Trump's secret analytics firm:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...64a706-9611-11e6-9b7c-57290af48a49_story.html

Everything about this screams "suck money from donors into Mercer's circle" and that these guys are dealing out the big data science equivalent of vaporware.

Does this talk about Facebook and twitter as their big bets?

Come on dudes you're not seeing the data there. That's all proprietary, that's why clinton and co get people off those sites so they own the data.

 

[nature boy]

Empty suit. Not a Liebermann or Bayh. Like a decent dem. He's tacted left on most issues, very good on immigration, and cuba

some iffy stuff with the ACA and pro-business but that seems more a product of donor pleasing and not a real conviction like Bayh

Thanks, since he comes from a rich family I thought he was a bit of a Bayh Dem. Either way, far better than Rubot.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Thanks, since he comes from a rich family I thought he was a bit of a Bayh Dem. Either way, far better than Rubot.

Comes from rich family, not a warren alcolyte but also pretty young and pro-helping middle class but not a populist

 

[NYCmetsfan]

It's tighter, but Cooper still enjoys a decent lead (for NC) and I expect that to continue.

Also, it looks like we're going to win the NH governorship. I still can't believe we might lose the VT one. Fucking New Englanders.

I mean does this one really matter? The DC mayoral election is more important than this.

 

[A Human Becoming]

So Poligaf hasnt talked about governor's races yet.

Flip: NC, IN

Hold: MO, WV, MT

R could Flip: VT, NH

It's been a good sign Van Ostern has beaten his Republican competitor in every poll the past couple weeks.

NH has had a Democratic governor for eighteen of the past twenty years. A Republican governor would worry me from my knowledge of how radical Republicans in our House can be.

 

[NeoXChaos]

It's tighter, but Cooper still enjoys a decent lead (for NC) and I expect that to continue.

Also, it looks like we're going to win the NH governorship. I still can't believe we might lose the VT one. Fucking New Englanders.

R's have NJ, ME, MA, MD and maybe soon VT and/or NH.

D's have MO, LA, MT, WV & soon possibly IN and NC

I mean does this one really matter? The DC mayoral election is more important than this.

He'll have to cotend with a D legilature like Baker and Hogan so I get what you mean. Vice versa with Gregg, Cooper, Koster, Edwards, Bullock with R legislatures etc.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Upshot is still holding steady in their NC early voting analysis at C+6 . I think we'll get a steady tide of early voting for NC and the door will be closed on the state before election day at this rate for the Presidency.

 

[Blader]

R's have NJ, ME, MA, MD and maybe soon VT and/or NH.

D's have MO, LA, MT, WV & soon possibly IN and NC

NJ governorship will almost surely flip to Dems next year.

 

[Teggy]

Trump claims that he is writing a $10 million check to his campaign today. Will be a good one to follow up on.

 

[Boke1879]

Upshot is still holding steady in their NC early voting analysis at C+6 . I think we'll get a steady tide of early voting for NC and the door will be closed on the state before election day at this rate for the Presidency.

Yea with more polling places opened and I have a feeling this weekend should be good.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Trump claims that he is writing a $10 million check to his campaign today. Will be a good one to follow up on.

He might do it, then be first to get paid back for the loan later.

He also might have to do it to prevent the entire campaign from coming to a dead halt by the middle of next week given their cash on hand and burn rate.

 

[RustyNails]

Ground game at work.

Ralston also said C+5 win is not enough to stop Heck from winning.

 

[Slayven]

What happens to the money left over from a political campaign?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ralston also said C+5 win is not enough to stop Heck from winning.

Would be true looking at 2012.

 

[Boke1879]

He might do it, then be first to get paid back for the loan later.

He also might have to do it to prevent the entire campaign from coming to a dead halt by the middle of next week given their cash on hand and burn rate.

Yup they have no money and shit is only going to get more expensive for them.

 

[Christian]

Trump claims that he is writing a $10 million check to his campaign today. Will be a good one to follow up on.

I don't understand what good this does. There are 10 days left. What's the turnaround on donations getting cashed, making ads and/or buying airtime, and actually getting them on the air? I feel like this maybe gets him a week, tops, of play, which seems WAY too late in the game.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Ralston also said C+5 win is not enough to stop Heck from winning.

so what's the margin she needs in NV to stop Heck from winning? Seems like she needs to run up score in all these competitive states to stop split ticketing from killing D chances to take senate.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

What happens to the money left over from a political campaign?

They're legally entitled to blow it all on hats.

 

[RustyNails]

13th accuser coming forward today with Gloria Allred.

Temple Taggart, former Miss Utah to hold a press conference with Gloria Allred at 12:30pm.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

so what's the margin she needs in NV to stop Heck from winning? Seems like she needs to run up score in all these competitive states to stop split ticketing from killing D chances to take senate.

From polling Heck seems to be running at Trump's level while Cortez is around 3 points behind Clinton.

 

[TS-08]

13th accuser coming forward today with Gloria Allred.

Temple Taggart, former Miss Utah to hold a press conference with Gloria Allred at 12:30pm.

Hasn't she already come forward? The name is familiar.

 

[makingmusic476]

PPP FL

HRC 48
DT 44

Rubes 46
Murph 46

hnnng

 

[NYCmetsfan]

R's have NJ, ME, MA, MD and maybe soon VT and/or NH.

D's have MO, LA, MT, WV & soon possibly IN and NC



He'll have to cotend with a D legilature like Baker and Hogan so I get what you mean. Vice versa with Gregg, Cooper, Koster, Edwards, Bullock with R legislatures etc.

But this check is vital, see Nixion singlehandly preventing Right-to-work legislation in MO

 

[johnsmith]

Hasn't she already come forward? The name is familiar.

Yeah Trump kissed her on the mouth.

 

[whyamihere]

Upshot is still holding steady in their NC early voting analysis at C+6 . I think we'll get a steady tide of early voting for NC and the door will be closed on the state before election day at this rate for the Presidency.

Actually Trump dropped .1 and Hillary gained .1. Getting the sense that the burst of polling places in Guilford helped.

 

[thebloo]

So, this ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1bR_HMpW_A

It probably won't make waves, but to be able to make a powerful ad with your own words from 1969 (nice) is special. I really like it.

Some quotes:

All we can do is keep trying again and again and again, to win again what we lost.
...
Fear is always with us, but we just don't have time for it. Not now

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I don't understand what good this does. There are 10 days left. What's the turnaround on donations getting cashed, making ads and/or buying airtime, and actually getting them on the air? I feel like this maybe gets him a week, tops, of play, which seems WAY too late in the game.

He'll put this in take own loans, pay himself back stiff everyone else.

Dude is just doing this to transfer other peoples funds to himself. Its a grift

 

[Fragamemnon]

Was this video from Whedon (and the "Save the Day" PAC) posted in the last thread:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp4AelhV8Ws

because it's amazing.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So, this ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1bR_HMpW_A

It probably won't make waves, but to be able to make a powerful ad with your own words from 1969 (nice) is special. I really like it.

Some quotes:

Web 👏 videos👏 arent 👏 ads !👏



if its not 30, 60 or 90 seconds. Its not an ad

 

[whyamihere]

Would be true looking at 2012.

Except that Heck is no Dean Heller and (thankfully) CCM is no Shelley Berkeley. I don't think there's going to be a lot of ticketsplitting on this race because it's not a one-sided carnival like in 12.

Nothing's really changed in this race that's made it more than Generic D versus Generic R.

 

[Stinkles]

I voted. As usual, The Stranger (our local radical skate punk progressive nightlife paper) has hilarious editorial board endorsement guide.

http://www.thestranger.com/news/201...ements-for-the-november-2016-general-election


I voted before reading it, but they're super useful for figuring out the bullshit comptroller wonkery and wankery.

 

[mclem]

I wake up to rumors about a Diamond Joe SoS?!

Yes, please!!!

If nothing else: more years of Onion Joe Biden!

 

[B-Dubs]

13th accuser coming forward today with Gloria Allred.

Temple Taggart, former Miss Utah to hold a press conference with Gloria Allred at 12:30pm.

He's officially got a Cosby's Dozen of accusers stepping forward.

If nothing else: more years of Onion Joe Biden!

Imagine how much trouble they could get him into as SoS. "According to reports, 90% of calls to the White House from the State Department start with "Now don't get mad," other 10% are drunk dials."