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[neurosisxeno]

I have too much free time; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kcpGK25hVp69R2h36TaK8P8WCuE-F6F9grNNELjX3vY/edit?usp=sharing

Basically using Proportional Allocation Hillary wins, regardless of if you round the EV's or just do straight math. The only goofy thing is that you can't quite get 100% of the EV's accounted for unless I messed up the math.

EDIT: Also, neither candidate hits 270 if EV's are allocated proportionally.

 

[Frank the Great]

Also, we should target states that have voter suppression laws to overturn as much as possible.

We should also really focus on winning state legislatures and governorships in the handful of states needed to get the Popular Vote Initiative passed. These are also some of the states with voter ID issues like WI.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Lol

And people are saying to wait for 2018? Man fuck that. We are probably going to lose more seats then gain.

Senate aside 2018 is likely to be a strong Democratic year. The gubernatorial map is practically the reverse of the Senate map. Republicans have to defend 26 seats, Democrats only 9, and 15 of those Republican incumbents are term-limited or retiring.

As for the House, the president's party almost always loses House seats in midterms. The only recent exceptions are 2002 and 1998, both of which featured, well, exceptional circumstances. Bush was wildly popular in 2002 in the wake of 9/11, while voters in 1998 punished Republicans for their impeachment of Bill Clinton, who himself enjoyed strong approvals at the time. Prior to that, you have to go all the way back to 1934 to find an exception, when FDR's popularity and the voters continuing to blame Republicans for the Great Depression led to Democratic gains.

 

[Blader]

At the very least, New Jersey seems like a slam dunk for a Democratic governor. Christie's got W. Bush levels of approval ratings now.

Although that race is next year.


edit: Mass' race is in 2018, and while Charlie Baker will likely win re-election pretty easily, I laughed and groaned when I read this:

Potential Democratic candidates include former Attorney General Martha Coakley

Fucking enough Martha! You've cost us enough races already.

 

[numble]

I have too much free time; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kcpGK25hVp69R2h36TaK8P8WCuE-F6F9grNNELjX3vY/edit?usp=sharing

Basically using Proportional Allocation Hillary wins, regardless of if you round the EV's or just do straight math. The only goofy thing is that you can't quite get 100% of the EV's accounted for unless I messed up the math.

EDIT: Also, neither candidate hits 270 if EV's are allocated proportionally.

Not getting to 270 means the House of Representatives decides.

 

[Totakeke]

WTF. Is this satire? I can't tell.

“Darkness is good,” says Bannon, who amid the suits surrounding him at Trump Tower, looks like a graduate student in his T-shirt, open button-down and tatty blue blazer — albeit a 62-year-old graduate student. “Dick Cheney. Darth Vader. Satan. That’s power. It only helps us when they—“ I believe by “they” he means liberals and the media, already promoting calls for his ouster “—get it wrong. When they’re blind to who we are and what we’re doing.”

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-political-movement-948747?utm_source=twitter

 

[neurosisxeno]

Not getting to 270 means the House of Representatives decides.

The House not picking the person that has more EV and wins the PV would be mind-boggling.

 

[teiresias]

The House not picking the person that has more EV and wins the PV would be mind-boggling.

Umm, it's Republicans.

 

[Plinko]

WTF. Is this satire? I can't tell.



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-political-movement-948747?utm_source=twitter

This cannot be real. Is this an actual quote?

 

[blackw0lf]

This would be a relief

NSA Director Adm Mike Rogers is the leading candidate to be Trump's first Director of National Intelligence. Story imminent on @WSJ

https://twitter.com/damianpaletta/status/799684781688627200

 

[Blader]

This cannot be real. Is this an actual quote?

I think he's saying that if "they" (liberals, the media, et al.) think of Bannon, Breitbart and the alt-right as the devil, they miss who they actually are/what they're actually doing. Like if you compared someone to Hitler, that person isn't actually like Hitler but in making the comparison you're undermining a better argument about how bad they actually are.

This would be a relief

NSA Director Adm Mike Rogers is the leading candidate to be Trump's first Director of National Intelligence. Story imminent on @WSJ

https://twitter.com/damianpaletta/status/799684781688627200

How in the world will this square with Flynn as Nat Sec Advisor or Pompeo as CIA Director?

Speaking of which, are DCI and DNI confirmable positions? Or are these jobs that Trump can fill without anyone's approval, like Bannon and Flynn?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Every person who votes to confirm Jeff Sessions is a deplorable, irredeemable racist and this should be noted whenever possible.

 

[Slurpy2k20]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/18/us/politics/donald-trump-administration.html

What a bunch of power-hungry fucks in this family.

 

[Dan]

WTF. Is this satire? I can't tell.



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-political-movement-948747?utm_source=twitter

“Like [Andrew] Jackson’s populism, we’re going to build an entirely new political movement,” he says. “It’s everything related to jobs. The conservatives are going to go crazy. I’m the guy pushing a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout the world, it’s the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything. Ship yards, iron works, get them all jacked up. We’re just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks. It will be as exciting as the 1930s, greater than the Reagan revolution — conservatives, plus populists, in an economic nationalist movement.”

Embracing the Andrew Jackson comparison...

The 1930s reference is insulting.

 

[Totakeke]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/18/us/politics/donald-trump-administration.html

What a bunch of power-hungry fucks in this family.

Relevant.

How did ‘less than stellar’ high school student Jared Kushner get into Harvard?

My book exposed a grubby secret of American higher education: that the rich buy their underachieving children’s way into elite universities with massive, tax-deductible donations. It reported that New Jersey real estate developer Charles Kushner had pledged $2.5m to Harvard University not long before his son Jared was admitted to the prestigious Ivy League school, which at the time accepted about one of every nine applicants. (Nowadays, it only takes one out of 20.)

I also quoted administrators at Jared’s high school, who described him as a less-than-stellar student and expressed dismay at Harvard’s decision.

“There was no way anybody in the administrative office of the school thought he would on the merits get into Harvard,’’ a former official at the Frisch school in Paramus, New Jersey, told me. “His GPA [grade point average] did not warrant it, his SAT scores did not warrant it. We thought, for sure, there was no way this was going to happen. Then, lo and behold, Jared was accepted. It was a little bit disappointing because there were at the time other kids we thought should really get in on the merits, and they did not.’’

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/18/jared-kushner-harvard-donald-trump-son-in-law

#draintheswamp

 

[mo60]

Every person who votes to confirm Jeff Sessions is a deplorable, irredeemable racist and this should be noted whenever possible.

So is it just going to be republicans that vote for that guy because maybe the democrats could persuade 3 or 4 republicans to not vote for him.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So is it just going to be republicans that vote for that guy because maybe the democrats could persuade 3 or 4 republicans to not vote for him.

But Joe Manchin and Joe Donnelly are racist Dems who will support Sessions for AG so we'll need like 5 Republicans. With Jeff Flake and Lindsey Graham (the two most moderate Republicans in the Senate) supporting Sessions, it's going to be really hard.

But call your Senators, we have to try. Especially if you're in West Virginia or Indiana, call Manchin and Donnelly to say you voted for them but oppose them voting to confirm Sessions.

 

[geomon]

Congressman: Trump’s Attorney General Pick Jeff Sessions Will ‘Erase 50 Years Of Progress’

Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.) isn’t mincing words in his condemnation of Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general.

“If you have nostalgia for the days when blacks kept quiet, gays were in the closet, immigrants were invisible and women stayed in the kitchen, Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions is your man,” Gutiérrez said in a statement Friday.

Spitting fire and truth

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I have too much free time; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kcpGK25hVp69R2h36TaK8P8WCuE-F6F9grNNELjX3vY/edit?usp=sharing

Basically using Proportional Allocation Hillary wins, regardless of if you round the EV's or just do straight math. The only goofy thing is that you can't quite get 100% of the EV's accounted for unless I messed up the math.

EDIT: Also, neither candidate hits 270 if EV's are allocated proportionally.

That's not how proportional allocation normally works. You can't have .377 of an elector, you need integers. There's two common methods of sorting out what happens to the final elector who can't be divided equally - D'Hondt, and Sainte-Lague. They don't produce much difference, but are both very slightly different mathematical methods of trying to round as fairly as possible (there are others as well, but very rarely used). D'Hondt is the most common, because it is the most simple one that also guarantees a party that wins over 50% of the vote will receive at least 50% of the seats. If the US were to adopt a proportional allocation system for electors, I think this would probably be the one it uses. It's actually already used in the US to an extent - the D'Hondt method is used to determine how many House districts each state gets, and is known as the Jefferson method there.

I'll redo your sheet with something like it soon if you'd like to see. Not sure it'll make a huge amount of difference but it will return integer electors per state and you shouldn't have any missing electors.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is the right response, Forma.

 

[Totakeke]

Bannon represents, he not unreasonably believes, the fall of the establishment. The self-satisfied, in-bred and homogenous views of the establishment are both what he is against and what has provided the opening for the Trump revolution. “The media bubble is the ultimate symbol of what’s wrong with this country,” he continues. “It’s just a circle of people talking to themselves who have no f—ing idea what’s going on. If The New York Times didn’t exist, CNN and MSNBC would be a test pattern. The Huffington Post and everything else is predicated on The New York Times. It’s a closed circle of information from which Hillary Clinton got all her information — and her confidence. That was our opening.”

Someone should create a thread on the THR's Bannon interview, I don't feel that I can do it justice.

 

[tedrotheredro]

LOL @ the NY Daily News headline photo:

 

[whyamihere]

Congressman: Trump’s Attorney General Pick Jeff Sessions Will ‘Erase 50 Years Of Progress’



Spitting fire and truth

It's actually Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III.

 

[Totakeke]

LOL @ the NY Daily News headline photo:

Is that prior to the Bannon interview I wonder? The quote would make a lot more sense in that context. Otherwise why would he invoke them himself.

 

[tedrotheredro]

Is that prior to the Bannon interview I wonder? The quote would make a lot more sense in that context. Otherwise why would he invoke them himself.

I believe the photo was made in reaction to the interview. It's the current photo for the story about the interview.

 

[jmdajr]

"I’m not a white nationalist, I’m a nationalist. I’m an economic nationalist,” Bannon tells THR media columnist Michael Wolff as the controversial Breitbart News chief turned White House advisor unleashes on Hillary Clinton, Fox News and his critics.

Economic nationalist?

we're saved!

 

[Aaron Strife]

At the very least, New Jersey seems like a slam dunk for a Democratic governor. Christie's got W. Bush levels of approval ratings now.

Although that race is next year.


edit: Mass' race is in 2018, and while Charlie Baker will likely win re-election pretty easily, I laughed and groaned when I read this:


Fucking enough Martha! You've cost us enough races already.

Goddammit Chokeley.

 

[gutter_trash]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/18/us/politics/donald-trump-administration.html

What a bunch of power-hungry fucks in this family.

we are now in Bizarro World.

Chris Christie was a national hero for sending his father to jail for tax evasion and fraud.

I can't believe people voted for a Con Man for President and are okay having a fraudster In-Law have access to top secret shit

 

[jmdajr]

THE ECONOMIST- League of nationalists
All around the world, nationalists are gaining ground. Why?

edit: some hope

n many countries the university-educated population—typically cosmopolitan in instinct—is rising. In the post-war period about 5% of British adults had gone to university; today more than 40% of school-leavers are university-bound. In Germany 2m citizens were in tertiary education in 2005; a decade later that number had risen to 2.8m. The share of 18- to 24-year-old Americans in that category rose from 26% in 1970 to 40% in 2014.

And immigration, which has done much to fuel ethnic nationalism, could, as generations are born into diverse societies, start to counter that nationalism. The foreign-born population of America rose by almost 10m, to 40m in the decade to 2010. In Britain it rose by 2.9m, to 7.5m, in the decade to 2011. Western voters aged 60 and over—the most nationalist cohort—have lived through a faster cultural and economic overhaul than any previous generation, and seem to have had enough. Few supporters of UKIP and the FN are young; the same is true for Alternative for Germany, another anti-immigrant party (see chart 4).

But youngsters seem to find these changes less frightening. Although just 37% of French people believe that “globalisation is a force for good”, 77% of 18- to 24-year-olds do. The new nationalists are riding high on promises to close borders and restore societies to a past homogeneity. But if the next generation holds out, the future may once more be cosmopolitan

 

[thehypocrite]

THE ECONOMIST- League of nationalists
All around the world, nationalists are gaining ground. Why?

The perversion of Trade.

 

[Balphon]

Wait, so you guys are telling me someone named after Jefferson Davis and PGT Beauregard has regressive views on race?

 

[Blader]

House Oversight Committee's voicemail is clear again if anyone wants to call and leave a message.

It was actually the first time I said "President-elect Donald Trump" out loud, my mouth could barely form the words. I had to call back a second time and just say "the president-elect" :lol


I would call my senator's office to urge them to oppose Sessions' confirmation, but I doubt Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey really need the reminder from me.

 

[neurosisxeno]

That's not how proportional allocation normally works. You can't have .377 of an elector, you need integers. There's two common methods of sorting out what happens to the final elector who can't be divided equally - D'Hondt, and Sainte-Lague. They don't produce much difference, but are both very slightly different mathematical methods of trying to round as fairly as possible (there are others as well, but very rarely used). D'Hondt is the most common, because it is the most simple one that also guarantees a party that wins over 50% of the vote will receive at least 50% of the seats. If the US were to adopt a proportional allocation system for electors, I think this would probably be the one it uses. It's actually already used in the US to an extent - the D'Hondt method is used to determine how many House districts each state gets, and is known as the Jefferson method there.

I'll redo your sheet with something like it soon if you'd like to see. Not sure it'll make a huge amount of difference but it will return integer electors per state and you shouldn't have any missing electors.

Hmmm. That would explain the inability to get to 538. I'll do a second sheet using this method.

 

[kirblar]

That set of charts deserves its own thread.

This one in particular really makes it clear just how bad know-nothing populist economics on the left and right are. If the "poor countries" are being exploited- why do they like globalization so much? (Answer: because their standard of living is exploding upward!)

 

[Totakeke]

That set of charts deserves its own thread.

This one in particular really makes it clear just how bad know-nothing populist economics on the left and right are. If the "poor countries" are being exploited- why do they like globalization so much? (Answer: because their standard of living is exploding upward!)

I thought we're beyond that talking point. Was it ever raised that way during this election?

 

[kirblar]

I thought we're beyond that talking point. Was it ever raised that way during this election?

This is less an election-specific issue and more a generic "rise of shitty populist economics in both left wing and right wing flavors" issue that's been going on for the past few years.

 

[Bunta]

Mike Huckabee Israel Ambassador?

edit: dailymail is blocked, didn't know that

http://ijr.com/2016/11/739517-transition-official-trump-has-picked-new-ambassador-to-israel-and-given-him-a-monumental-first-task/

 

[Joeytj]

My country, Mexico, has both benefited and suffered a lot because of globalization, but the middle-class has benefited enough from globalization that, at least electorally, it's been a winning issue. There's a very strong nationalistic movement (MORENA, lead by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and others), but it's still technically the minority, as he's never been able to obtain more than 35% of the vote in the two previous elections.

That might change now because of Trump, as a defense mechanism from Mexicans, seeking to "shield" themselves from the U.S. and looking inward and towards other regions.

I know I'm not going to spend a lot of money in the U.S. or on U.S. products anymore... I wanted to go on vacation to NY and Washington (one last time before Obama left) but the peso is just so devalued, it's impossible for me now. So off to Mexico City I go and visit family and friends.

So, one thing leads to another and nationalism in Mexico will also now become stronger than before because of Trump.

Our saving "grace" is that the nationalist over here are mostly progressive, not conservative.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Do other countries that had Civil Wars still feel the pains and problems from the war 150 years later?

It seems like since the Civil War, we've never been able to settle down. For the last 150 years, the old Confederacy has continuously tried to remove rights from African Americans, and long for the days of the 1800s when they could own another human being. And every time we declare "this is just the dying breath of the Confederacy" they end up coming right back in full force for a few years until it settles down again.

Is this a problem with all Civil War nations, or just ours due to it being racially focused?

 

[Pyrokai]

Is there going to be a mass protest at his Inauguration? I want the protesters to outnumber the attendees of the actual ceremony. There's no way he gets the two million Obama got.

If there is a massive protest planned, I will try to pull a lot of strings in order to attend.

 

[Holmes]

Hey at least I can say that I'm on the same team as Ana Navaro for the next four years.

 

[RastaMentality]

Is there going to be a mass protest at his Inauguration? I want the protesters to outnumber the attendees of the actual ceremony. There's no way he gets the two million Obama got.

If there is a massive protest planned, I will try to pull a lot of strings in order to attend.

I'd hope liberal groups are getting together to actually plan a concerted effort instead of being unorganized as always. This needs to be huge.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The aides at Senator Mike Lee's and Senator Orrin Hatch's offices sounded pretty distraught after talking to them about Jeff Sessions so... I don't know, call your Senators' offices, especially if you're in West Virginia or Indiana.


... Why is CNN letting Tom DeLay on television? DeLay let Hastert rape children. DeLay should be in prison, not on TV.

 

[Pyrokai]

I'd hope liberal groups are getting together to actually plan a concerted effort instead of being unorganized as always. This needs to be huge.

Me too. If it's organized and ready, I will gladly go.

I want it to be the biggest news item and overshadow his actual fucked up inauguration and I want more protesters than attendees. It's currently my wet dream. Where do I sign the fuck up!?

 

[RastaMentality]

Me too. If it's organized and ready, I will gladly go.

I want it to be the biggest news item and overshadow his actual fucked up inauguration and I want more protesters than attendees. It's currently my wet dream. Where do I sign the fuck up!?

Also, I'm curious if the KKK and neo-Nazi groups try to show up. considering they openly support him, they might as well show up and expose him for what he is.

 

[metalslimer]

Democrats cannot let someone like Jeff Sessions lead the justice department. You have to pick battles but this needs to be one

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I still can't believe the media has never bothered to investigate who knew that Hastert was raping children.

Tom DeLay obviously knew that Hastert was a rapist and didn't care at all and probably helped cover it up. Who else knew? Who that is still in government knew? Political journalists are a joke.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

DC is bluer than the ocean and surrounded by blue states. I don't think that many deplorables will head out here.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Sessions can't be filibustered anyway so...

 

[Blader]

Just called Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey's offices and was like, yeah I know you guys will oppose Sessions anyway, but just wanted to lend my voice to the fray. They seemed appreciative of it. Not sure what good it'll do but at least I did something.


also, for some reason, Markey's DC office number goes right to Warren's voicemail. :lol