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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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F

Fragamemnon

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
Great piece. I have the same experience as the author does, almost exactly. And when people from my hometown in north Mississippi do travel at all, they only stay in the South anyway. It's always down hunting on the coast, or staying in the mountains in TN, or going fishing on the GA coast. They would literally never leave the South if they had the choice, and most do.
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This. When I lived in Mississippi, people would only vacation to Florida and New Orleans, and when I lived in the FL panhandle everyone went to Disney for vacation. I didn't know anyone with a passport other than my college professors.

It wasn't until I moved to the Durham, NC (+60 HRC) that I ran into people that actually traveled outside the Southeast, much less outside of America.

edit: last night my wife finally lashed out and made it clear how culturally bankrupt and ignorant the rust belt / rural trump voters were. Felt good as she's been having a terrible time reconciling this election.

I don't mind Dems appealing to these types, provided that it's done in a manner consistent with Dem party values. They can also nakedly manipulate them, and I'm OK with that too.
 
K

kirblar

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Education is a much stronger predictor for voting Trump than income, but I'm guessing that education is just a proxy for segregation.

I should run a regression on this. A lot of Arizona and Texas white people (many of whom probably have Hispanic friends) were pretty horrified by Trump, but Iowa white people (most of whom probably have no non-white friends) loved Trump. If you're highly educated, you're more likely to go to a job that has some diversity in the city around the job.

And going to college allows you to meet non-white people too.
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Check my thread history. When you account for racial animosity the difference is negligible.
 
S

sangreal

Member
I had to sell my Colbert/Oliver tickets because I'm not ready to face reality. It's too bad, because I don't think it will be filmed

In related local news:

0ap5r1F.png
 
T

tedrotheredro

Member
Dominican Power said:
What credentials does this Kansas congressman have to be the head of the fucking CIA?
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Of the three, I think he's probably the least worry. He's well-thought of in the intelligence community.

However, he was a BENGHAZIIIIIII-er, but if partisan hack is the worst part of him, it could be worse. He also hates Iran and the deal, but that comes with the territory.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Sirpopopop said:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/20...mp_this_time_around_in_nj.html#incart_m-rpt-2

This is from NJ:

Some white working class towns flipped to Trump.

What's interesting to note is that rich towns flipped from Romney to Clinton.

Ironic that rich people care more about social issues than poor working class whites. To hear the talk now, I thought rich people were the devil, and that we needed to unite to work with the WWC.
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As the article by Wong pointed out, Hunger Games had it backwards.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
kirblar said:
Was gonna thread this at some point - http://www.rollcall.com/news/opinio...-the-midwest-the-real-bubble-is-rural-america The white bubble is real.

Was trying to let the influx of threads calm down a bit before doing it, but that doesn't seem to be happening.
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My experience exactly. I'll still argue there is a bubble the left is in (although it is a more inclusive bubble for sure), but this is exactly why I talked kept bringing up concerns about the Midwest. Anywhere north of Grand Rapids, MI is this way. It's bizarre.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Sirpopopop said:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/20...mp_this_time_around_in_nj.html#incart_m-rpt-2

This is from NJ:

Some white working class towns flipped to Trump.

What's interesting to note is that rich towns flipped from Romney to Clinton.

Ironic that rich people care more about social issues than poor working class whites. To hear the talk now, I thought rich people were the devil, and that we needed to unite to work with the WWC.
Click to expand...
This is not how I would read into this at all.

Trump brings too much instability and uncertainty. Wealthy people do not like that. Regardless of tax break promises. Won't matter if he completely crashes the market.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
OHf0uo7.png


Voting results don’t prove that Clinton did worse than Obama among Latinos, or that Trump did better than Romney. But the results do suggest that if nearly 80 percent of Latinos voted for Clinton, as Latino Decisions argues, then Latino turnout must have been down in many counties, or Clinton must have done much worse than Obama among non-Latinos in those counties. Otherwise, the overwhelming pro-Clinton Latino vote would have swung heavily Latino counties more dramatically toward Clinton. The evidence, then, suggests that Clinton fell short among Latinos in one of two ways: Either she didn’t win as large a share of them as Obama, or she didn’t convince as many of them to turn out to vote. Since both the exit polls and Latino Decisions agree that turnout among Latinos was up, the latter explanation doesn’t seem likely.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/

Sigh. I want a ranking of effectiveness of pandering to each political group.
 
lyrick

lyrick

Member
whyamihere said:
Wow.



god bless Minneapolis and St. Paul
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MSP, Duluth and Rochester are basically strongholds. When children in the red sea of the rest of MN and the Eastern Dakotas grow up, they relocate to the cities leaving their hometowns left to wither of old age.
 
R

Ryuuroden

Member
Sirpopopop said:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/20...mp_this_time_around_in_nj.html#incart_m-rpt-2

This is from NJ:

Some white working class towns flipped to Trump.

What's interesting to note is that rich towns flipped from Romney to Clinton.

Ironic that rich people care more about social issues than poor working class whites. To hear the talk now, I thought rich people were the devil, and that we needed to unite to work with the WWC.
Click to expand...

These aren't the white super rich. These are the rich who went to public universities, met minorities and people of different religions and sexual persuasions. These are people who have diverse colleagues in the workplace or are part of diverse private partnerships and businesses. And most importantly these people while wealthy, work hard every day to be wealthy and have educated themselves in order to succeed so they can see disastrous policies coming and know lies when they see them. These people have money in stocks and large houses and can afford nice things but these people are affected by a destroyed economy as bad as anyone e!se and they have more status symbols and a more drastic change of lifestyle to lose than someone who is already poor. These people often care about minority and other rights. Trump scares them economically. I am one of these people. While I have always voted the Democratic ticket, I was in the minority until this election. We aren't the rich class that can just hole up and live luxury while the economy goes bad. We know what immigration does that benefits our businesses, we value the regulations that level the playing field for the small businesses.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Someone just pointed out in the OT thread on the subject that the GOP passed the cap on the # of House reps in 1929 when they had full control.

Dems HAVE to make killing that law a priority.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
In France, it's been Juppe vs. Sarkozy for who will win the primary and then the presidency for the last few months, but now it's become Juppe vs. Sarkozy vs. Fillon in the polls.

Fillon is another Putin admirer, but he also wants to make France far more economically conservative which is a big break from most Western nationalists. Fillon is probably the closest western nationalist to Trump based on that.

And on Sessions, If you're in WV or Indiana, please give Manchin and Donnelly hell and call them and protest them until they back down on Sessions.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
kirblar said:
Someone just pointed out in the OT thread on the subject that the GOP passed the cap on the # of House reps in 1929 when they had full control.

Dems HAVE to make killing that law a priority.
Click to expand...

As I've pointed out in this thread before, more districts means more Republican bias. Be careful what you wish for.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
It feels like Jewish center-left journalists have become more hard-line after the wild anti-Semitism thrown at them the last 18 months.

I mean, Matt Yglesias and Jonathan Chait haven't changed their policy beliefs, but have become more accepting of "Democrats should do nothing but attempt to block Trump at all times."
 
K

kirblar

Member
Crab said:
As I've pointed out in this thread before, more districts means more Republican bias. Be careful what you wish for.
Click to expand...
The districts aren't going to be distributed evenly among the current states.

Legislature will always lean GOP. We can't avoid that.
 
S

studyguy

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It feels like Jewish center-left journalists have become more hard-line after the wild anti-Semitism thrown at them the last 18 months.

I mean, Matt Yglesias and Jonathan Chait haven't changed their policy beliefs, but have become more accepting of "Democrats should do nothing but attempt to block Trump at all times."
Click to expand...

I mean when you get a year and a half of shit thrown at you for being a specific ethnicity, religion, etc you get real cynical. I know I did during rougher parts of the election for sure. You recognize the change too but what am I supposed to do with that? Be optimistic in light of what's going on now?
 
G

geomon

Member
B-Dubs said:
Oh fuck me, we're going to war with Iran in the next four years.
Click to expand...

Yup. For those that don't know, Mike Huckabee is a fucking zionist, in other words he believes the apocalypse is near and actively wants to start it because he thinks that will bring Jesus back to Earth. I am not fucking kidding.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Outside of Michael Tracey getting fired, the most positive thing that happened because of the election was the dumbfuck owner of Antiwar.com getting immediately owned.

Cxjv2feVIAE-qpo.jpg
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Ryuuroden said:
These aren't the white super rich. These are the rich who went to public universities, met minorities and people of different religions and sexual persuasions. These are people who have diverse colleagues in the workplace or are part of diverse private partnerships and businesses. And most importantly these people while wealthy, work hard every day to be wealthy and have educated themselves in order to succeed so they can see disastrous policies coming and know lies when they see them. These people have money in stocks and large houses and can afford nice things but these people are affected by a destroyed economy as bad as anyone e!se and they have more status symbols and a more drastic change of lifestyle to lose than someone who is already poor. These people often care about minority and other rights. Trump scares them economically. I am one of these people. While I have always voted the Democratic ticket, I was in the minority until this election. We aren't the rich class that can just hole up and live luxury while the economy goes bad. We know what immigration does that benefits our businesses, we value the regulations that level the playing field for the small businesses.
Click to expand...

I know these towns. I've lived in these towns. NJ doesn't send their kids to public universities. It's looked down upon. If you go public you go out of state, which is a higher tuition except in the case of Penn State. Otherwise, private universities. That's just a minor quibble.

These are the children of parents who work on Wall Street or own a successful business. They are in many ways, exactly as you describe. It's why I'm not fond of this demonization of people who work on Wall Street. It's why I'm not fond of the fact that the way it seems to be going is that we need to take a hard tack on these types of individuals to go chase after WWC.

Vendetta Red said:
This is not how I would read into this at all.

Trump brings too much instability and uncertainty. Wealthy people do not like that. Regardless of tax break promises. Won't matter if he completely crashes the market.
Click to expand...

So we should read the reasons why WWC would vote for Trump in the most positive light possible, while the reasons why wealthy but not super wealthy individuals would vote Clinton must be read in a negative light?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Jeff Sessions along with Ted Cruz is trying to severely restrict the H1b and F1 visa program. Without these programs, the IT/tech/engineering industry will suffocate and most likely die or shift overseas. Here's an article from March on Sessions-Cruz' "The American Jobs First Act of 2015" bill.
Apart from the fact that a majority of the foreign students – especially those who pay tuition fees in full for a degree and other related expenses – would not invest the exorbitant amount for a 2-year or a 4-year degree program without assurance of the opportunity of some job experience thereafter or prospects of long-term employment, the bill would shut out majority of non-STEM students from being employed. The salary requirement of $110,000 minimum is not likely to be met for a fresh graduate in the arts or humanities fields of study.

It would mean most students finish their programs and then return immediately back to their home country. Students wanting a degree in some cutting edge technology and MBA studies may still think it beneficial, but most others would rather go to more welcoming nations with better job prospects like Canada or Australia, and in Europe.
Click to expand...
Also the bill would remove the OPT provision for F1 students. Which means, a foreign student who graduates in a STEM degree right now can work for anyone for 36 months under OPT program (12 months for non-STEM degree). This allows the student to utilize the skills in workplace, get H1b sponsorship, and build a career. Under this bill, the students will have to go back to their country after graduation. Full stop. Which is freaking ridiculous. No foreign student will ever come to US to study without prospect of work. They will all go to Canada, UK or Australia.

I want to sound the alarm bell on this one because this bill will fundamentally destroy our country's standing in tech and innovation. The truth of the matter is that there are not enough students who specialize in STEM programs in US. Without foreign students, all the research and innovation will be gone. It's as simple as that.

Last line from the article
The pertinent question for now is: will Trump or Cruz become the next president of the US?
Click to expand...
:(
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
kirblar said:
Someone just pointed out in the OT thread on the subject that the GOP passed the cap on the # of House reps in 1929 when they had full control.

Dems HAVE to make killing that law a priority.
Click to expand...

I always wondered if there was a way to make a 6,000 person congress work using the original maximum of 1 seat per 50,000 people, given the current era of technology. It would be very different, but I don't think it would necessarily be worse.
 
K

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
geomon said:
Yup. For those that don't know, Mike Huckabee is a fucking zionist, in other words he believes the apocalypse is near and actively wants to start it because he thinks that will bring Jesus back to Earth. I am not fucking kidding.
Click to expand...

I can believe this if only because Huckabee genuinely has the glassy-eyed look of madness on his face most of the time.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
RustyNails said:
Jeff Sessions along with Ted Cruz is trying to severely restrict the H1b and F1 visa program. Without these programs, the IT/tech/engineering industry will suffocate and most likely die or shift overseas. Here's an article from March on Sessions-Cruz' "The American Jobs First Act of 2015" bill.

Also the bill would remove the OPT provision for F1 students. Which means, a foreign student who graduates in a STEM degree right now can work for anyone for 36 months under OPT program (12 months for non-STEM degree). This allows the student to utilize the skills in workplace, get H1b sponsorship, and build a career. Under this bill, the students will have to go back to their country after graduation. Full stop. Which is freaking ridiculous. No foreign student will ever come to US to study without prospect of work. They will all go to Canada, UK or Australia.

I want to sound the alarm bell on this one because this bill will fundamentally destroy our country's standing in tech and innovation. The truth of the matter is that there are not enough students who specialize in STEM programs in US. Without foreign students, all the research and innovation will be gone. It's as simple as that.

Last line from the article

:(
Click to expand...

Enrollment would drop immensely for sure. Can't imagine how the top universities would look like if that were to pass.
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
geomon said:
Yup. For those that don't know, Mike Huckabee is a fucking zionist, in other words he believes the apocalypse is near and actively wants to start it because he thinks that will bring Jesus back to Earth. I am not fucking kidding.
Click to expand...

No, Zionism is the belief that Israel should be a Jewish state, all Jews should return and protected at all costs



But that is what Huckabee and Evangelicals believe
 
B

Barzul

Member
RustyNails said:
Jeff Sessions along with Ted Cruz is trying to severely restrict the H1b and F1 visa program. Without these programs, the IT/tech/engineering industry will suffocate and most likely die or shift overseas. Here's an article from March on Sessions-Cruz' "The American Jobs First Act of 2015" bill.

Also the bill would remove the OPT provision for F1 students. Which means, a foreign student who graduates in a STEM degree right now can work for anyone for 36 months under OPT program (12 months for non-STEM degree). This allows the student to utilize the skills in workplace, get H1b sponsorship, and build a career. Under this bill, the students will have to go back to their country after graduation. Full stop. Which is freaking ridiculous. No foreign student will ever come to US to study without prospect of work. They will all go to Canada, UK or Australia.

I want to sound the alarm bell on this one because this bill will fundamentally destroy our country's standing in tech and innovation. The truth of the matter is that there are not enough students who specialize in STEM programs in US. Without foreign students, all the research and innovation will be gone. It's as simple as that.

Last line from the article

:(
Click to expand...

Yep I used OPT before I eventually got my Green Card. Without it, I'd be in Canada right now. I sometimes wonder what would have happened if I just went to school there anyways. Their country is way more accepting of immigrants.
 
P

PlayALLtheGames

Banned
sphagnum said:
I'm saying that you're not helping any by coming off as an aloof liberal elite who doesn't care about how people actually react to their jobs drying up. I'm not saying you're actually wrong in your analysis, but that the disconnect that liberals have with a wide swathe of the populace is why they voted for the guy making crazy promises.

People in the Rust Belt to not care about how globalization benefits someone in Vietnam, or GDP ratios, or whatever. You have no solutions for them and saying "we'll forget you guys, youre all dying and you all suck anyway!" helps nothing.
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It's not about not caring how people react to jobs drying up but adults have a responsibility to understand how the world works and what is true and what isn't.

The problem is rust belt voters have come to believe that they simply need to vote in a specific person and they're going to fix everything. Doesn't matter that it's not at all realistic and in some cases completely impossible given the modern world and how things work. Because of this, the voters there have ignored reality for a long time, including when they elected and re-elected awful lawmakers who did nothing for them and made their conditions worse.

Their anger at politicians is justified, but, now, a New York rich guy who inherited his wealth, who knows nothing about their lifestyle and has never demonstrated that he gives a shit about them, pays no taxes AND who makes all HIS shit in China, came to them and said he understands them and cares about things being in America. Instead of smelling his bullshit, they ate it up.

Once again, they're ignoring reality; trading being duped by politicians to being duped by a non-politician.

Clinton at least had an outline on her site about her policy to reinvigorate those communities. Trump had nothing except his usual pandering. They went with the latter.

Not to mention, at the end of the day, they voted for a guy who insulted absolutely everyone, mocked the disabled, insinuated a vet was a loser for being captured as a PoW and boasted about sexually assaulting women.

Once again, people are defending them - "Oh well they don't care about those things", etc. Right. So I guess let's just say rust belt voters should have no responsibility to do or care about anything. Let's just keep reinforcing their view that they need to merely check a box on a ballot, sit back and wait for the good ol' days to come sweeping back in. Because that's what they think is going to happen. When it doesn't, I'm not sure who they will have left to blame.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, Matt Yglesias and Jonathan Chait haven't changed their policy beliefs, but have become more accepting of "Democrats should do nothing but attempt to block Trump at all times."
Click to expand...

Yglesias and Josh Marshall were sounding the alarm about Trump for months re: blantant anti-semitism.

edit: H1-B will get reformed most likely, which is good because right now it's a handful of outsourcing companies flooding the lottery to pay dismal wages. The program needs both expansion and reform to fix it. Not sure if Republicans will do it. EIther a bid-based system for the slots or some kind of per-visa increase the employer has to pay to discourage flooding applications by one company.

Student visa to work restriction is insane and I can't see that ever changing. If people graduate here, they should have a path to citizenship-this is the very definition of being on the good end of brain drain.
 
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