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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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S

Souldriver

Member
PBY said:
Honestly, felt very let down by that interview.
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There was also a bit of an audible sniffle when he said 'we need more concerts'.

I get what he's trying to say here, but I also groaned out loud when he said that.

All in all I wasn't impressed either. Lots of fancy talk without specifics, and a few deflections even in this very welcoming environment.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Balphon said:
I thought his comments about bottom-up organization and keeping voters engaged with the Party on a more continuous basis were pretty compelling.

Seemed odd that he didn't have a ready answer when asked why they shouldn't prefer a full-time chair though.
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Yeah, he totally dodged the question of why he can succeed as a part time chair and why the position shouldn't be full time.

I did like some of what he had to say, but, I still think a full time chair is a better idea.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I think I'm over the election loss. But still get into shock when realizing things like Katrina Pierson is going to have a post in the administration. But I really want to discuss why Clinton lost (bad data?) rather than go over why Trump won (rural racists, Comey/Russia fuckery).

Has there been a comprehensive examining of why Clinton's much vaunted groundgame, data analytics and precision based voter file that had information on each individual voter failed to give her the advantage?

Even if we assume GOP governors fucked over early voting in states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida, it still does not explain Pennsylvania.

Hillary had a substantial money advantage. Incredible amount of ad spending. Massive gotv campaigns with beyonce, katy perry, local leaders, etc. Nothing worked.

Top dreamteam of surrogates: Massively popular and hugely inspiring Potus/Flotus, ex-Potus Bill Clinton, populist wing of Warren/Sanders. Even freaking Al Gore.

Great Hispanic and minority outreach. HUNDREDS of local interviews with minority radio/tv stations.

Nevada

One of the few bright spots in the election. It seems like Nevada is the only state that went exactly how everyone in poligaf expected it to go contrary to punditry. On that point, let me just say once again how amazing Harry Reid is. If you recall, this is what happened a few weeks ago:
During a conference call with reporters Thursday, RealClearPolitics reporter James Arkin asked the senator to respond to polls that showed former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Mastro trailing in the race to replace the retiring Reid in the Senate.

"All of them are wrong," Reid responded, referring to polls RCP includes in its aggregator. "Rather than doing your own stuff, all you do is average out all these bad polls."

He added that "RealClearPolitics is totally unimpressive to me" and called the site "one of the worst."
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Reid built monster of a democratic machine in what used to be a red state. He knew what was up in NV. Going to miss the bastard so much. Schumer strikes me as a guy who would break bread with Trump in exchange for pet projects.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
@Redistrict
Michigan: 2,803 new Clinton votes, 719 Trump. Trump's lead falls to 9,528 (0.2%). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19
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There will be automatic recount if the number falls below 2,000 votes.

EDIT: Also, as of now, the 12 states that have moved, margin-wise, to Democrats this election:

Arizona (5.5%)
California (5.9%)
DC (3.1%)
Georgia (2.7%)
Idaho (0.1%)
Illinois (0.1%)
Kansas (0.7%)
Massachusetts (4.2%)
Texas (6.7%)
Utah (30.4%)
Virginia (1.5%)
Washington (1.4%)
 
E

Ekai

Member
Brawly Likes to Brawl said:
This is what I've been saying ever since the election. I'm so embarrassed that so many people who call themselves liberals fell for this without even looking at the numbers. Even my own brother did and he's generally good at sussing out bullshit.
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It's not true tho that Hillary was the first to even slightly mention trans individuals. Obama did the same, in debates against Hillary even, back in 08. Otherwise I'd agree with most of that. Blaming this on liberals tho, that's utter bs. It's liberals that have been the staunchest trans allies.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
We'd need a couple more states to move this way for it to matter. Just MI would put her at 248
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Oh, she's not going to be president, it'd still be funny after all this talk from Michael Moore, she ended up winning Michigan.

EDIT: Oh my god, imagine if she won Florida and we were waiting on this 9000-vote margin in Michigan.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Am I crazy, or is Evan McMullin a pretty reasonable person?
 
T

Totakeke

Member
Can I get a smell test on this? Forbes is saying that Jared Kushner is the new data genius.

No resources at the beginning, perhaps. Underfunded throughout, for sure. But by running the Trump campaign–notably, its secret data operation–like a Silicon Valley startup, Kushner eventually tipped the states that swung the election. And he did so in manner that will change the way future elections will be won and lost. President Obama had unprecedented success in targeting, organizing and motivating voters. But a lot has changed in eight years. Specifically social media. Clinton did borrow from Obama’s playbook but also leaned on traditional media. The Trump campaign, meanwhile, delved into message tailoring, sentiment manipulation and machine learning. The traditional campaign is dead, another victim of the unfiltered democracy of the Web–and Kushner, more than anyone not named Donald Trump, killed it.
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At first Kushner dabbled, engaging in what amounted to a beta test using Trump merchandise. “I called somebody who works for one of the technology companies that I work with, and I had them give me a tutorial on how to use Facebook micro-targeting,” Kushner says. Synched with Trump’s blunt, simple messaging, it worked. The Trump campaign went from selling $8,000 worth of hats and other items a day to $80,000, generating revenue, expanding the number of human billboards–and proving a concept. In another test, Kushner spent $160,000 to promote a series of low-tech policy videos of Trump talking straight into the camera that collectively generated more than 74 million views.
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“Jared understood the online world in a way the traditional media folks didn’t. He managed to assemble a presidential campaign on a shoestring using new technology and won. That’s a big deal,” says Schmidt, the Google billionaire. “Remember all those articles about how they had no money, no people, organizational structure? Well, they won, and Jared ran it.”
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...shner-won-trump-the-white-house/#7a5bac182f50

Feels like a bunch of revisionist bullshit to me.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Totakeke said:
Can I get a smell test on this? Forbes is saying that Jared Kushner is the new data genius.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...shner-won-trump-the-white-house/#7a5bac182f50

Feels like a bunch of revisionist bullshit to me.
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Genius? Nah, we have a bunch of Macedonian teens running amok with fake news causing waves. Was he capitalizing on some huge untapped group of people like a genius or just riding on the wave of unfiltered bullshit. I'd lean towards the latter, but winners write history in the short term. We probably won't know the true dirt on Trump's plans till years down the line.

Remember he thought he was losing up until he didn't on election night.
 
F

FyreWulff

Member
Totakeke said:
This is why we need to scrap Obamacare.

n1gqhNN.png


http://www.economist.com/blogs/grap...tw/te/bl/ed/trumpsucceedswherehealthisfailing

It's the true solution to the republican menace.
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It's almost like it was sabotaged by Republican governments on purpose!
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
whyamihere said:
Oh, she's not going to be president, it'd still be funny after all this talk from Michael Moore, she ended up winning Michigan.
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I hope it also kills some of the hand wringing from democrats and these "hot takes" on white voters. While there are some issues with rural white voters that the party needs to figure out, ultimately we lost a turnout election. There are ways to fix that (specifically by nominating a better candidate) which do not signal the sky is falling, or the party is dead, or we can't win without a celebrity nominee, etc.

Whatever else is done, the next nominee's quality is of paramount importance. The very people who will determine the election (minorities, young people, etc) will be the ones targeted the worst by new voter intimidation/suppression tactics. Those people stood in line for Obama in 08 and 12, no matter how long it took. It didn't happen this time. While Trump being a disaster will motivate some voters, ultimately it comes down to who you're voting for. There's no room to get it wrong.
 
T

Totakeke

Member
AHAHAHAHA, I don't know how true this is in the big picture but this is hilarious.

AJNwibr.png


Edit: twitter responses indicate there's still a big job loss due to automation. So I guess we need to consume more coal.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Honestly we really don't need to do much at the presidential level to win another election. She seems to have lost this election by only a 100k votes between a few states where she had the FBI and Russian government working along with a 30 year smear campaign and a candidate who couldn't effectively communicate a clear central goal. Run this election again with many other democrats and we probably win.

This election did expose just how depleted democrats are in most states though. Losing Feingold's race in particular is a big problem. 2018 is going to be brutal.
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
metalslimer said:
Honestly we really don't need to do much at the presidential level to win another election. She seems to have lost this election by only a 100k votes between a few states where she had the FBI and Russian government working along with a 30 year smear campaign and a candidate who couldn't effectively communicate a clear central goal. Run this election again with many other democrats and we probably win.

This election did expose just how depleted democrats are in most states though. Losing Feingold's race in particular is a big problem. 2018 is going to be brutal.
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Going to slightly challenge that. MI/WI/OH/IA are trending more red. I think they will be even tougher to win next go around. (Not sure about PA)

It's true that FL/NC are trending more blue, so that might offset it. (along with VA/CO) But some of the "safe" dem states are no longer that, and will be even harder to get next time.
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
Totakeke said:
AHAHAHAHA, I don't know how true this is in the big picture but this is hilarious.

AJNwibr.png


Edit: twitter responses indicate there's still a big job loss due to automation. So I guess we need to consume more coal.
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Gotta shut those machines down and let more people get black lung, clearly.

We've been set back at least four years on really addressing the effects of automation.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
metalslimer said:
Honestly we really don't need to do much at the presidential level to win another election. She seems to have lost this election by only a 100k votes between a few states where she had the FBI and Russian government working along with a 30 year smear campaign and a candidate who couldn't effectively communicate a clear central goal. Run this election again with many other democrats and we probably win.

This election did expose just how depleted democrats are in most states though. Losing Feingold's race in particular is a big problem. 2018 is going to be brutal.
Click to expand...

I'm not too worried about 2018, even if I should be. Looking at the map, I don't expect any of the states in the Northeast and West to flip, except maybe Pennsylvania. But I don't know how popular Bob Casey is, except that the's been the incumbent since 2007.

I'm not worried about Florida, New Mexico, or Montana.

Nevada seems like a possible pick-up. Which could be good to off set any loses from the Midwest.

The states in the Midwest are my only concern. However, if conditions in the Rust Belt are worse off than they are now, not to mention a possibility of a recession, then I think Democrats can minimize their loses. The worst case scenario is a lost of four seats. The best case scenario is a gain of one, or maybe even two if Democrats can finally crack Arizona.
 
P

Phantast2k

Member
NYMag: Activists Urge Hillary Clinton to Challenge Election Results

Hillary Clinton is being urged by a group of prominent computer scientists and election lawyers to call for a recount in three swing states won by Donald Trump, New York has learned. The group, which includes voting-rights attorney John Bonifaz and J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, believes they’ve found persuasive evidence that results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may have been manipulated or hacked. The group is so far not speaking on the record about their findings and is focused on lobbying the Clinton team in private.

Last Thursday, the activists held a conference call with Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta and campaign general counsel Marc Elias to make their case, according to a source briefed on the call. The academics presented findings showing that in Wisconsin, Clinton received 7 percent fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic-voting machines compared with counties that used optical scanners and paper ballots. Based on this statistical analysis, Clinton may have been denied as many as 30,000 votes; she lost Wisconsin by 27,000. While it’s important to note the group has not found proof of hacking or manipulation, they are arguing to the campaign that the suspicious pattern merits an independent review — especially in light of the fact that the Obama White House has accused the Russian government of hacking the Democratic National Committee.

...
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W

whyamihere

Banned
Also, let's assume she wins Wisconsin and Michigan, which, sure, with that close of a margin, something might come up in a recount (especially since neither WI or MI have certified their results, but don't hold your breath on Wisconsin).

She needs 12 more EVs. Where do you contest those?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Without Florida, there's no real path.

whyamihere said:
Also, let's assume she wins Wisconsin and Michigan, which, sure, with that close of a margin, something might come up in a recount (especially since neither WI or MI have certified their results, but don't hold your breath on Wisconsin).

She needs 12 more EVs. Where do you contest those?
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They hold a re-election in NC due to governor nonsense and she sweeps due to the GOP blatantly attempting to steal the governor election
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
I don't think anyone actually believes coal mining and fracking create that many jobs. Especially not when these processes are large automated today. Wasn't there a news article recently about something dealing with that? Or was that the keystone pipeline which was only going to create some 50-odd permanent jobs?
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Wilsongt said:
I don't think anyone actually believes coal mining and fracking create that many jobs. Especially not when these processes are large automated today. Wasn't there a news article recently about something dealing with that? Or was that the keystone pipeline which was only going to create some 50-odd permanent jobs?
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The Keystone thing is definitely true. Some temporary construction jobs, then virtually nothing.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Sad Democrats need to take the L. There is nothing Hillary can actually do if she is somehow elected or the results are challenged. She doesn't have control of the Senate, so any SCOTUS noms will be blocked for at least two years, provided Dems "excite" themselves into voting in 2018, which won't happen. Nor will she actually be able to get any meaningful policy through without it being challenged constantly. Plus, emails and the Clinton Foundation will become part of the 24h news cycle again.

Let it fucking go and deal with Trump for two years. And do what you can to get people you know in your community to get off of their fucking, non-excited asses and fucking vote in a goddamn midterm election for a fucking goddamn change. Goddamnit.

Dan said:
The Keystone thing is definitely true. Some temporary construction jobs, then virtually nothing.
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of which, I am sure, most of the those temporary construction jobs would largely go to immigrant workers because white people wouldn't take them, anyway.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
RE: some of the moderate things that Trump was saying at the NYT today.

Many Journalists are urging caution considering this guy is constantly contradictory. The actions are what's important, appointing Flynn, Bannon, Kobach (SoS of failing Kansas), and Myron Ebell (EPA pick).


mlMTYTF.png
 
N

NervousXtian

Thought Emoji Movie was good. Take that as you will.
A Texas judged just put a halt to the FLSA law... fucking hell.

This country... fuck corporations not wanting to pay people a fair wage.
 
G

Good Job Bob

Member
Another Dem being considered for a position in the Trump admin:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-transportation-idUSKBN13H2K7

Former Democratic Representative Harold Ford Jr of Tennessee is being considered for U.S. transportation secretary or another Cabinet post in Donald Trump's administration, Politico reported on Tuesday, citing two unnamed sources.

Ford, who served five terms in Congress, has yet to meet with president-elect Trump but there have been some preliminary feelers put out about potential Cabinet-level posts, including transportation secretary, and Ford appears open to putting himself in the mix, Politico reported.
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C

crustchump

Member
C

Chezzymann

Member
So if clintons going to match obamas numbers but still lost, did a significant amount of her votes shift from the rust belt to coastal areas? Or were there just more republicans voting in Pennsylvania and Minnesota than 2012?
 
Z

Zackat

Member
If Trump means what he says with an infrastructure bill, wouldn't Dept. of Transportation be a pretty big part of that?

I am ignorant on such things.
 
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