Support NeoGAF

[kirblar]

While I need to look at exit polls more closely and compare results from 2008 and 2012 at a county level, I think the focus on the white working middle class has overshadowed Hillary's poor performance among minorities.

No one should take exit polls for face value, for reasons the New York Times outlined, but as with election polling, +-3 points is likely within the actual result. Taking that into consideration, she did significantly worse than Obama in 2012 with minority groups as a whole, only those who do not consider themselves African-American, Asian-American or Hispanic staying about the same. This was especially true for Black men, Latino women, African-Americans under 44 and Latinos under 29. What I'm wondering is: was it because of Hillary or her message? Black men and Latino women votes shifted more third-party than for Trump. The same is true of African-Americans under 44 and young Latinos.

It's because young voters don't remember the '90s and can't contextualize her record. They also don't understand how the world existed per-internet, or just how long it took to get something like gay marriage done.

This falls in line with the general shift of young people as more liberal, but less D, more I, over the past 4-8 years. It's a big issue. Radicalization- not just happening on the right.

 

[East Lake]

Yeah, because the question is how much should we compromise with Nazis. The problem with Busters wasn't that they had a moral line, it was that they had a wrong, dumb moral line.

Would a dumb moral line be something like, I won't vote for anyone who doesn't make climate change the top issue of the campaign? If I did vote, wouldn't I have had to also compromise with people who literally don't care if the environment is destroyed who are also Nazis?

 

[mo60]

I wonder if democrats can appeal to young voters again. Maybe without hilary they can do it.

 

[kirblar]

Trump will likely teach young voters an important lesson.

 

[Intheflorsh]

I wonder if democrats can appeal to young voters again. Maybe without hilary they can do it.

Don't Democrats typically do better with youth voters when the party is in opposition?

 

[mo60]

Trump will likely teach young voters an important lesson.

Like Harper did in Canada to an extent. The Liberals won the recent federal election on the back of the youth and minority vote.

 

[Cybit]

10 years? I seriously doubt they are required to keep the full 1,000 hired for the full 10 years, even if the tax break is that long.

Doubtful, most states are not like Washington and idiotic. Most states have learned from South Carolina and put employment requirements to keep their tax breaks.

Also - remember that not only does UTC have 7 billion in federal contracts, but they have billions more in contracts with defense contractors - who can also be used as leverage against UTC. If DoD tells Boeing or Lockheed that one of the grading criteria for their bids is "number of American based employees of suppliers", those companies will drop UTC so fast people's heads will spin. There is logic in using the massive amounts of federal tax breaks given to existing manufacturers to apply leverage to those companies to stick with American suppliers (as well as those manufacturers also getting frustrated with quality issues from those moves).

While I need to look at exit polls more closely and compare results from 2008 and 2012 at a county level, I think the focus on the white working middle class has overshadowed Hillary's poor performance among minorities.

No one should take exit polls for face value, for reasons the New York Times outlined, but as with election polling, +-3 points is likely within the actual result. Taking that into consideration, she did significantly worse than Obama in 2012 with minority groups as a whole, only those who do not consider themselves African-American, Asian-American or Hispanic staying about the same. This was especially true for Black men, Latino women, African-Americans under 44 and Latinos under 29. What I'm wondering is: was it because of Hillary or her message? Black men and Latino women votes shifted more third-party than for Trump. The same is true of African-Americans under 44 and young Latinos.

The story that the Democratic party is in serious denial about is that Trump, at worst, performed equal with Romney when it came to minorities, and as Harry Enten nicely pointed out - the Latino Decisions folks are cherry picking the shit out of their data and not comparing apples to apples. (Also, people are screaming that exit polls are flawed, which they are, but then using exit polls as the numbers for Romney/Obama.)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/

Voting results don’t prove that Clinton did worse than Obama among Latinos, or that Trump did better than Romney. But the results do suggest that if nearly 80 percent of Latinos voted for Clinton, as Latino Decisions argues, then Latino turnout must have been down in many counties, or Clinton must have done much worse than Obama among non-Latinos in those counties. Otherwise, the overwhelming pro-Clinton Latino vote would have swung heavily Latino counties more dramatically toward Clinton. The evidence, then, suggests that Clinton fell short among Latinos in one of two ways: Either she didn’t win as large a share of them as Obama, or she didn’t convince as many of them to turn out to vote. Since both the exit polls and Latino Decisions agree that turnout among Latinos was up, the latter explanation doesn’t seem likely.

Trump will likely teach young voters an important lesson.

I've learned that Liberalism as a whole is one of those things you need a generational refresher course in, and I have the distinct feeling Trump is about to provide one.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I wonder if democrats can appeal to young voters again. Maybe without hilary they can do it.

Only if the candidate has minimal experience. Years of experience increases the chances of having made compromises, so that'll cost you youth voters. But years of experience without compromise means you never accomplished anything, so that costs you politically savvy voters.

Obama did great because he had so little in his past to nail him on, but he had his youth to cover for his lack of major accomplishments.

It's why I'm tentatively aboard the Harris 2020 train.

 

[kirblar]

Like Harper did in Canada to an extent. The Liberals won the recent election on the back of the youth and minority vote.

We thought Bush was our Harper.

We were wrong.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Would a dumb moral line be something like, I won't vote for anyone who doesn't make climate change the top issue of the campaign? If I did vote, wouldn't I have had to also compromise with people who literally don't care if the environment is destroyed who are also Nazis?

The top issue?

I don't vote for anyone for president that isn't a proponent of evidence-based policy.

That's always the one with the (D) next to their name.

So it wasn't her top issue, but Hillary was the only one who wanted to deal with climate change based on evidence. Same with other policies, all evidence-based.

Remember, Stein wanted to ban GMOs and nuclear, so she was pro-carbon. And the greens are too ideology-based to ever be evidence-based anyway. Plus they can't win, but I digress.

 

[Psychoward]

My college newspaper (who my best friend is on the board of) got airtime on breitbart and it's about as you'd expect


The comments are... yeah...


www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/11/29/...untable-racism/amp/?client=ms-android-verizon


Makes my heart wrench

 

[Hindl]

Like Harper did in Canada to an extent. The Liberals won the recent federal election on the back of the youth and minority vote.

Don't even need to go to Canada. Look at W how the youth and minorities poured out for Obama (even though that was slightly different). Although pessimistically you can look at articles pre-election of Nader voters talking about how much they regretted their vote as young people and imploring today's youth to not go 3rd party and vote for Hillary. And we saw how that turned out. So maybe we'll get 4 years of Trump being a disaster, followed by 8 years of a Democrat causing halting progress, and have the cycle repeat where youth voters vote 3rd party despite Stein voters of today imploring the youth to not make the same mistake.

 

[radios shipping overview]

RACE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN AMERICAN POLITICS

RACE IS A MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE THAN CLASS IN AMERICAN POLITICS

RACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO MAKE COALITIONS BROAD ENOUGH TO TACKLE CLASS BASED ISSUES

DEMOCRATS ARE SEEN BY SOME AS NOT ADDRESSING CLASS ISSUES BECAUSE THEY TRY TO ADDRESS CLASS ISSUES ALONG RACIAL LINES

THE MERE ACT OF TRYING TO UPLIFT NON-WHITE VOTERS TURNS OFF MANY WHITE VOTERS (EVEN WHITE VOTERS WHO BY AND LARGE ARE GOOD PEOPLE)

RACE IS THE REASON MANY WHITE VOTERS ARE REPUBLICANS EVEN IF IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE IN THEIR ECONOMIC BEST INTEREST

EDIT: Maybe All Caps was too much? I'm not rewriting that though

I'm just going to look at this as a set of Jenny Holzer-esque truisms. Well done.

 

[A Human Becoming]

It's because young voters don't remember the '90s and can't contextualize her record. They also don't understand how the world existed per-internet, or just how long it took to get something like gay marriage done.

This falls in line with the general shift of young people as more liberal, but less D, more I, over the past 4-8 years. It's a big issue. Radicalization- not just happening on the right.

It seems to be happening with younger non-whites more than whites, though. Whites under 44 did not vote much differently than they did in 2012. Is it a signal Democrats are not reaching them or responding to their concerns enough?

I find the change for Latino women particularly peculiar. She still received a larger percentage of their vote than Latino men (68% v 62%), but the drop from Obama was more evident (-8% vs -3%). White women probably voted the same or even more for Hillary than Obama (+1%) while Black women voted either the same or a little less so (-2%).

 

[kirblar]

It seems to be happening with younger non-whites more than whites, though. Whites under 44 did not vote much differently than they did in 2012. Is it a signal Democrats are not reaching them or responding to their concerns enough?

I find the change for Latino women particularly peculiar. She still received a larger percentage of their vote than Latino men (68% v 62%), but the drop from Obama was more evident (-8% vs -3%). White women probably voted the same or even more for Hillary than Obama (+1%) while Black women voted either the same or a little less so (-2%).

Latino voters not being a unified bloc likely has a lot to do with this. Lots of subdivisions w/ background (cuban v mexican, KOF v UMVC3, "White" vs "nonwhite",etc.)

 

[Teggy]

I'm expecting a lot of companies to be lining up for tax breaks pretty soon (or right now).

 

[A Human Becoming]

The story that the Democratic party is in serious denial about is that Trump, at worst, performed equal with Romney when it came to minorities, and as Harry Enten nicely pointed out - the Latino Decisions folks are cherry picking the shit out of their data and not comparing apples to apples. (Also, people are screaming that exit polls are flawed, which they are, but then using exit polls as the numbers for Romney/Obama.)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/

It's possible he did better with minorities than Romney, but if so, not by much.

Latino voters not being a unified bloc likely has a lot to do with this. Lots of subdivisions w/ background (cuban v mexican, KOF v UMVC3, "White" vs "nonwhite",etc.)

You're right. It's so odd to me how the first female presidential nominee of a major party could do so much worse with a woman demographic group than a male nominee. Her performance with all women was probably about the same or a little worse than Obama.

 

[Crocodile]

Immigration had little to do with it, though. Net immigration to an area was negatively correlated with voting for Leave - Maledict will confirm that one if they're around. The strongest predictor of voting Leave was how badly affected that area was by the 'trade shock' - where globalization caused traditional labour to collapse. Then Farage came along and told everyone the problem was immigrants and if we left the EU, the jobs would come back, and so people voted to leave. If you travel back in time to ~2005 (before the recession and before Farage, but a time of comparable immigration levels) support for the EU was high.

Sound like a familiar story?

There are a lot of factors that are kind of correlated with each other that can sometimes make pulling one thing as "the reason for X" somewhat tricky. That being said, I have to stress that that income wasn't the primary predictive factor for a Trump vote - education and race are.

Both Vox and 538 have pieces on the subject.

That this "angry white backlash" has been occurring long before Trump came along. (see: '94)

Also see general American history

While I need to look at exit polls more closely and compare results from 2008 and 2012 at a county level, I think the focus on the white working middle class has overshadowed Hillary's poor performance among minorities.

No one should take exit polls for face value, for reasons the New York Times outlined, but as with election polling, +-3 points is likely within the actual result. Taking that into consideration, she did significantly worse than Obama in 2012 with minority groups as a whole, only those who do not consider themselves African-American, Asian-American or Hispanic staying about the same. This was especially true for Black men, Latino women, African-Americans under 44 and Latinos under 29. What I'm wondering is: was it because of Hillary or her message? Black men and Latino women votes shifted more third-party than for Trump. The same is true of African-Americans under 44 and young Latinos.

Her baggage from her past plus the below cart explain it:

Speaking with one of my cousins during Thanksgiving who was doing some political community outreach in the past few months, she said a lot of young Black voters were turned off by the revelations of the 1994 crime bill. That isn't an unfair reason to critique Clinton but considering she didn't even vote for it (unlike Sanders who dragged it out into the limelight - though it was his right to do so as her opponent, just hypocritical) as well as the alternative in our two party system (Trump) I can't say I sympathize with those who then decided to stay home.

I wonder if democrats can appeal to young voters again. Maybe without hilary they can do it.

I mean most policy positions that millennials care about align with the Democrats. A candidate with less baggage should find it easier to connect with them. Once the Republicans become the "establishment" I feel it would also be easier to harness that "anti-establishment" wave to our advantage.

Society can also degrade. Crab's point is that you're all acting like a bunch of Bernie or busters. Race is not the primary concern of the electorate, just like climate change is also not the primary concern although it should be at the very top. Should we all be mad at Hillary for not focusing 90% of her speeches on climate change?

Race permeates every facet of American politics regardless of whether or not people explicitly say it affected how they vote. I don't think anyone is arguing against well-executed and well-planned leftist populism. We are just saying why right populism is so effective and thus why left populism isn't some panacea to getting the WWC vote (again I stress how consequential it is that we are specifically talking about WHITE working class voters and not working class voters in general).

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

Effectively reach out to African Americans like so many AA politicians and analysts were screaming for, and Hillary is president. 100% her and her campaign's fault.

white women still voted for Trump, stop blaming the african american community for not voting for Clinton

 

[excelsiorlef]

white women still voted for Trump, stop blaming the african american community for not voting for Clinton

I just always like to point out...

Literally if white folk split 50/50 Dems would win in a landslide every year but they don't and I can tell you the biggest reason why....

 

[kirblar]

The crime bill is an issue for young people because Crime hasn't been a serious issue since the '90s.

They have no frame of reference for how bad things were leading up to the point where young people started being de-leaded en masse.

 

[excelsiorlef]

The crime bill is an issue for young people because Crime hasn't been a serious issue since the '90s.

They have no frame of reference for how bad things were leading up to the point where young people started being de-leaded en masse.

I also found it interesting that they just gave Sanders a pass on it completely...


And by interesting I mean hardly surprising.

 

[Abinash117]

I'm expecting a lot of companies to be lining up for tax breaks pretty soon (or right now).

I don't know, but I don't think Trump can give tax breaks to companies individually the president doesn't really do that I think. He just used Pence or Pence was the one that spearheaded as the VP.

What it will be is that Congress will cut taxes down for for corporations from 35% down to something else.

 

[Plinko]

white women still voted for Trump, stop blaming the african american community for not voting for Clinton

Please show me in that post where I blamed the AA community. Not even close to what I said.

 

[kirblar]

white women still voted for Trump, stop blaming the african american community for not voting for Clinton

He is blaming the campaign for an awful GOTV operation.

 

[Crocodile]

It seems to be happening with younger non-whites more than whites, though. Whites under 44 did not vote much differently than they did in 2012. Is it a signal Democrats are not reaching them or responding to their concerns enough?

I find the change for Latino women particularly peculiar. She still received a larger percentage of their vote than Latino men (68% v 62%), but the drop from Obama was more evident (-8% vs -3%). White women probably voted the same or even more for Hillary than Obama (+1%) while Black women voted either the same or a little less so (-2%).

I think we touched upon it earlier but I think the fact that, compared to Obama, Clinton was white and had some sketchy issues with race (real or perceived makes no difference to voters) in her past (even if she has done A LOT of good work on racial issues too) made her less appealing to minority voters (who still MUCH favored the Democratic candidate to the Republican one to be sure). Also all the "BOTH SIDES ARE THE SAME" rhetoric didn't help.

If we are being a bit cynical and doing maximum box checking I think there is merit to

Minority Presidential candidate with the charisma and oratory skill to appeal across racial lines and can signal to minorities just on the basis of their minority status + White Male VP + strong Democratic platform = winning combination

Again this is cynical, maximum box-checking but it doesn't seem wrong?

 

[CygnusXS]

Holy fuck

Sci,Space,&Tech CmteVerified account
‏@HouseScience

.@BreitbartNews: Global Temperatures Plunge. Icy Silence from Climate Alarmists

 

[kirblar]

I think we touched upon it earlier but I think the fact that, compared to Obama, Clinton was white and had some sketchy issues with race (real or perceived makes no difference to voters) in her past (even if she has done A LOT of good work on racial issues too) made her less appealing to minority voters (who still MUCH favored the Democratic candidate to the Republican one to be sure).

If we are being a bit cynical and doing maximum box checking I think there is merit to

Minority Presidential candidate with the charisma and oratory skill to appeal across racial lines and can signal to minorities just on the basis of their minority status + White Male VP + strong Democratic platform = winning combination

Again this is cynical, maximum box-checking but it doesn't seem wrong?

These issues didn't come up like this in '08. The electorate rotating caused the issues (This is a point towards: don't run old candidates as a Dem.)

 

[excelsiorlef]

Holy fuck

The world is fucked

 

[chadskin]

AFP: #BREAKING US President-elect Donald Trump says companies leaving US will face "consequences"

Wonder how the markets are going to react to this one.

 

[RastaMentality]

RACE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN AMERICAN POLITICS

RACE IS A MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE THAN CLASS IN AMERICAN POLITICS

RACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO MAKE COALITIONS BROAD ENOUGH TO TACKLE CLASS BASED ISSUES

DEMOCRATS ARE SEEN BY SOME AS NOT ADDRESSING CLASS ISSUES BECAUSE THEY TRY TO ADDRESS CLASS ISSUES ALONG RACIAL LINES

THE MERE ACT OF TRYING TO UPLIFT NON-WHITE VOTERS TURNS OFF MANY WHITE VOTERS (EVEN WHITE VOTERS WHO BY AND LARGE ARE GOOD PEOPLE)

RACE IS THE REASON MANY WHITE VOTERS ARE REPUBLICANS EVEN IF IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE IN THEIR ECONOMIC BEST INTEREST

EDIT: Maybe All Caps was too much? I'm not rewriting that though

the caps was necessary. When America finally realizes race is the most important, pressing topic this country faces, we'll be way better off.

 

[Rebel Leader]

AFP: #BREAKING US President-elect Donald Trump says companies leaving US will face "consequences"

Wonder how the markets are going to react to this one.

The funny thing is that a portion of at least half left without the consequence of which he speaks.

 

[TumblingHippo]

Holy fuck

lol soon the POTUS will be tweeting out stories from this dumpster of a website too. It's hard to want to care anymore thinking about the near-future, but at least there's the long term future to think about (assuming climate change denial hasn't destroyed that).

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

Please show me in that post where I blamed the AA community. Not even close to what I said.

She still got the overwhelming majority of the black vote, not getting Obama's numbers were expected

 

[lyrick]

The funny thing is that a portion of at least half left without the consequence of which he speaks.

Yep Consequences like 700K in state tax relief, a lower federal Corporate tax, and less regulation...

oh wait, Carrier just got a financial incentive to move 1300 Jobs to Mexico.

 

[dramatis]

A Wisconsin court case may be the last best hope to fix gerrymandering by 2020

The unexpected ray of hope comes from a partisan gerrymandering case in Wisconsin. An eclectic group of academics and lawyers managed to pull off the all but impossible when they convinced a court to strike down Wisconsin’s state districting on constitutional grounds. The case is guaranteed a hearing by the Supreme Court, and it provides Democrats some hope of tamping down on the partisan gerrymanders that have handicapped their candidates since 2011, the last time districts were drawn.

That straight line to the Supreme Court is one reason the Wisconsin win matters so much. Most of the Court’s docket is discretionary, and the Court is not above ducking controversial questions it’s not ready to decide. But due to special procedural rules for certain voting rights cases, the Supreme Court must hear this case. Rather than “deny cert” and say nothing, as the Court does with almost all the cases it is asked to review, it must either affirm or reverse the lower court decision. (The Court can “summarily” affirm or reverse, but that’s also why the district court win matters here. The Court is highly likely to give the case a full-blown review given that plaintiffs won below.) The decision is likely to come down in the spring and, absent another miraculous win for plaintiffs in some other case, will likely be the Court’s last word on the subject before 2020.

 

[excelsiorlef]

A Wisconsin court case may be the last best hope to fix gerrymandering by 2020

Basically gotta hope Kennedy cares on that day.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Holy fuck

Plunged?

I don't think so.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Now, more than a decade after Justice Kennedy insisted that he would entertain a partisan gerrymandering claim if a manageable standard could be found

This claim might be what Obama was talking about when he said he was going to work on districting.

 

[B-Dubs]

This claim might be what Obama was talking about when he said he was going to work on districting.

If whatever Obama's doing results in a working formula there's a lot of judges who have indicated they'd strike down partisan gerrymandering if such a formula existed.

 

[Dominican Power]

So is Trump going to strong arm every Republican governor to bribe companies with state tax dollars to keep their factories there?

 

[gutter_trash]

Like Harper did in Canada to an extent. The Liberals won the recent federal election on the back of the youth and minority vote.

The Urban demos carry more weight in Canada than Rural currently.

Not the case in the US

 

[balladofwindfishes]

If whatever Obama's doing results in a working formula there's a lot of judges who have indicated they'd strike down partisan gerrymandering if such a formula existed.

Striking down gerrymandering should scare the GOP. There's no real spin they could even put on it to make the public against it, since it's so wrong and so shady, that even hardcore Republicans aren't comfortable with it.

They've been coasting because of 2010 and it's making for some awful politicians who have no business being in Washington. Once they actually have to earn their seats, they'll have to adapt.

 

[sc0la]

Plunged?

I don't think so.

It's equally disturbing that a house committee is retweeting BB.

 

[Dan]

A Wisconsin court case may be the last best hope to fix gerrymandering by 2020

Yup, this is going to be interesting. This'll go before the court prior to Trump filling the vacancy, right?

 

[Holmes]

lol Heitkamp and Manchin will not take jobs in a Trump administration.

 

[Rebel Leader]

It's equally disturbing that a house committee is retweeting BB.

It's full of republicans who deny it.

How the hell does one get on a science committee that doesn't believe in science?

I have the Windows are open and I feel hot... IN DECEMBER!!

 

[Teggy]

It's equally disturbing that a house committee is retweeting BB.

WTF, NASA already said that 2016 is going to be the hottest year on record. I'm not giving BB a click but that article has to be 100% false.

 

[studyguy]

Tough consequences for leaving?

A warning in the form of sweet gov't contracts, a slap on the wrist in the form of huge tax breaks and heavy, heavy tax of absolutely nothing imposed on the business for cutting half your jobs and running to Mexico.

Whew would be terrified as a corporate business owner!

 

[faisal233]

Ellison posted his DNC platform.

https://keithfordnc.org/platform

Skimmed through it because I have class soon. I might be onboard with him as DNC chair.