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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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JP_

Banned
From Dallas News:

93c0ac7745.png


http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2016/11/10/trump-supporting-friends-scared
 

Crocodile

Member
What Trump did in 2016 was offer two-part populism of white nationalism and protectionism. Many liberal analysts consistently ignored the danger of Trump's promises to "win our trade back" and end unemployment. His economic rhetoric was appealing to large numbers of lower-middle-class whites and netted him a third of the Hispanic electorate. Liberal myopia on economics was one of the biggest contributing factors to Hillary's loss.

Appealing to Rust Belt whites isn't exclusive to appealing to workers of color. Obama did it twice. Hillary could not. This isn't entirely her fault, because Obama was lucky enough to run against candidates offering even more austere economic solutions. Hillary's campaign, disregarding Trump's economic appeal, couldn't predict the kind of Obama-Trump crossover we saw on Tuesday. This led to some absolutely horrible campaign decisions:

It isn't a matter of empathy. It certainly isn't a matter of being "too progressive." In letting Trump make protectionist promises that largely went uncontested, Hillary's campaign ceded most issues of trade and employment to Trump. Her campaign naively assumed that Rust Belt voters would support a status quo that hasn't given them many concrete benefits. Trump offered direct solutions that seemed to work, and enough voters were willing to look past his racism to elect him.

I mean most of everything that came out of Trump's mouth was a lie and Clinton did have good, detailed plans that would have helped that demographic. Not campaigning enough there and credibility problems hurt her but she had the plans. I think a stronger messenger that puts more emphasis on the economic platform and can explain in a more concise, digestible way will do well. As I stress though, at no point can social justice issues be put aside (I know you agree with me on that regard but others seems more wishy-washy about it so I'm just boldly putting it out there).

Maybe it would be more efficient for all the white liberals (and British liberals who seem to have lost their way) to just post quotes from this article.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/welcome-to-the-second-redemption/507317/

All of this has happened before. It happens every time people of color strive for equality -- the active, violent resistance of white nationalists, aided and abetted by the white moderates who support people of color in only those years in which doing so might help win elections.

This is all true and now I'm scared :(

These swings between optimism and despair can't be healthy
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I wonder if this election will change the liberal groupthink on gun control. "The government will keep you safe" is a lot less appealing with a white nationalist as president.

Clearly not...

But the solution being offered isn't a hybrid but an abandonment of what you are calling Identity politics...

By whom?
 

Quixzlizx

Member
It's very early to say, but Nate Cohn seems to think that turnout was not the only problem - or at least not the problem that sunk the Democrats this year. The turnout was poorly allocated, for starters.

Obviously the turnout was poorly allocated when you win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote.

But I'm just asking whether 2012 Obama votes were lower or higher than 2016 Trump votes in those states, if anyone has a spreadsheet with that information available.
 
Okay, today isn't going so bad. Michael Tracey has been fired, yesssss.

Sadly @VICE has severed its relationship with me for reporting that multi-millionaire Clinton surrogate @lenadunham deceived the public.

Michael Tracey was fired for doxxing Lena Dunham like the fuckhead he is. Her "deceit" was that she claimed to have voted for Hillary in NY when she might not have... which clearly justifies her doxxing?

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/797128757408567296
 
Hillary's plan wasn't job creation, but employer encouragement through tax breaks. This is a right-wing position. It worked for Obama because the alternative in 2008 and 2012 was "try not to starve."

"That’s why Clinton will launch a $20 billion initiative to create millions of new career opportunities for young Americans—including jobs and apprenticeships."

Yup, sounds like a tax break to me!

Are you also glossing over the part about infrastructure investment as well?

In 2016, this attitude was both a tired status quo and less direct than the bridge Trump was selling. Trump also highlighted his jobs plan much more heavily than Clinton highlighted hers.

To the best of my knowledge, Hillary didn't run ads like this. Trump also pivoted in the final few weeks of his campaign with a greater emphasis on economics. Hillary Clinton stuck with moralistic appeals that didn't resonate with many workers.

That first ad isn't a jobs plan. It doesn't actually mention what his plan is. It just says, "my plan rocks. her plan sucks."

The second ad is exactly what I was talking about. It's race baiting. "Massive illegal immigration." "Those globalists." "Jobs fleeing to Mexico and China." "Global power structure."

Note: globalists is a reference to people of the Jewish faith. Very common in alt-right circles.
 
I wonder if this election will change the liberal groupthink on gun control.

"The government will protect you" is a lot less appealing with a white nationalist as president.
We might want to ease up on gun control anyway. It's an argument we keep losing, badly. And we had success with gun rights Democrats both in this election and in the past.

In some of these southern states, being anti-gun is a non starter. You will never win. We need to be flexible.
 

jtb

Banned
I really, honestly think that the quickest, most direct counter-appeal to the WWC and rural voters is simple: healthcare.

that was part of the message that got Bill Clinton elected in 92, that's the message that completely galvanized Pennsylvania into voting D for decades. privatization of medicare will be hugely unpopular, repealing the ACA will be a complete disaster, etc.

ironically, part of the ACA's problem is that, because no one seems to understand what the fuck is actually in the bill, it's compromised nature is constantly used against it. it's just a catch-all for everything that is wrong with the system.

this is part of bernie's appeal (the part that mirror's trump). single-payer is a simplistic, effective appeal. it is a message. i hate that it's so fucking hard to control the messaging on healthcare. maybe now that the R's have control (and no plan to fix anything), it'll be easier to craft an insurgent message. i don't know.
 
I wonder if this election will change the liberal groupthink on gun control. "The government will keep you safe" is a lot less appealing with a white nationalist as president.



By whom?


Are you serious?

Literally the person I was replying to in the first place... now calling for incrementalism... where as that understanding during and after the primary....

It's funny when incrementalism is only an acceptable option when talking about minority civil rights.

I saw it in OT it's come up here.

Let's not worry aboyt those people they'll vote Dem anyway.
 

Chumley

Banned
Okay, today isn't going so bad. Michael Tracey has been fired, yesssss.



Michael Tracey was fired for doxxing Lena Dunham like the fuckhead he is. Her "deceit" was that she claimed to have voted for Hillary in NY when she might not have... which clearly justifies her doxxing?

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/797128757408567296

Good on them. I can't think of any other millennial female celebrity who gets more absolute hatred thrown at them than Dunham. I'm sure there are others I'm just forgetting right now, but whenever I see her even mentioned it's usually accompanied by grievance.
 
This is fun.

New Hampshire's 1st CD election winners:

2006: Carol Shea-Porter
2010: Frank Guinta
2012: Carol Shea-Porter
2014: Frank Guinta
2016: Carol Shea-Porter
 
Yeah, I think people wouldn't be as demoralized about the "base" if Hillary had around the same amount of votes as Obama had, but Trump had massively increased turnout.

But Trump had less votes than Romney.

Metric I saw was Hillary down 8m Dems from 2012 and Trump down 1m Republicans. Cant be overstated: Republicans always come home. Or, god this is my new favorite quote so thanks to the poster who brought it up: Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. If democrats arent in love with the top of the ticket, they just dont care to vote, fuck the ramifications of the democrats not winning. Various interviews with Republicans, hell even just informal conversations with people at my job, they disliked what Trump was doing (racism, bigotry, etc) but all either said "I will hold my nose and vote for him because its more important to have the Republicans win" or "Ill cross that bridge when I get there" which is basically a passive way of saying the first quote.
 
Michael Tracey and Rania Khalek getting fired is literally the only good news of the last two weeks.

I hope when The Intercept hires Michael Tracey that the three good reporters at The Intercept leave.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Metric I saw was Hillary down 8m Dems from 2012 and Trump down 1m Republicans. Cant be overstated: Republicans always come home. Or, god this is my new favorite quote so thanks to the poster who brought it up: Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. If democrats arent in love with the top of the ticket, they just dont care to vote, fuck the ramifications of the democrats not winning. Various interviews with Republicans, hell even just informal conversations with people at my job, they disliked what Trump was doing (racism, bigotry, etc) but all either said "I will hold my nose and vote for him because its more important to have the Republicans win" or "Ill cross that bridge when I get there" which is basically a passive way of saying the first quote.

I think the belief that Dems need to fall in love is correct, and could (should, even) be argued against on the basis of privilege. How privileged do you have to be to shirk your moral duty to make the world a better place, because you, personally, don't love the candidate put forward?

Considering liberal left loves to "check their privilege", I can see this being a slap in the face that might wake them up.
 
We might want to ease up on gun control anyway. It's an argument we keep losing, badly. And we had success with gun rights Democrats both in this election and in the past.

In some of these southern states, being anti-gun is a non starter. You will never win. We need to be flexible.
We also propose milquetoast plans that will barely affect the problems we have here so as to say "we don't want to take your guns away" and then still get killed on it.

It's really upsetting to me that we need to drop it, but nothing will really get done on it.
 

Totakeke

Member
Metric I saw was Hillary down 8m Dems from 2012 and Trump down 1m Republicans. Cant be overstated: Republicans always come home. Or, god this is my new favorite quote so thanks to the poster who brought it up: Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. If democrats arent in love with the top of the ticket, they just dont care to vote, fuck the ramifications of the democrats not winning. Various interviews with Republicans, hell even just informal conversations with people at my job, they disliked what Trump was doing (racism, bigotry, etc) but all either said "I will hold my nose and vote for him because its more important to have the Republicans win" or "Ill cross that bridge when I get there" which is basically a passive way of saying the first quote.

The metrics you saw is wrong, it's incomplete.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
We also propose milquetoast plans that will barely affect the problems we have here so as to say "we don't want to take your guns away" and then still get killed on it.

It's really upsetting to me that we need to drop it, but nothing will really get done on it.

Or we just go hole hog. No matter what we do they will say we want to take their guns away, even if we drop it, so why not just say we want to take their guns? They'll hit us on it anyway and it's the right thing to do besides.
 
We also propose milquetoast plans that will barely affect the problems we have here so as to say "we don't want to take your guns away" and then still get killed on it.

It's really upsetting to me that we need to drop it, but nothing will really get done on it.

Guns will be handled by the courts holding up laws passed by the states. It's a non-starter on a federal level.

Or we just go hole hog. No matter what we do they will say we want to take their guns away, even if we drop it, so why not just say we want to take their guns? They'll hit us on it anyway and it's the right thing to do besides.

Reminds me of 2008 when Obama never even said the word "gun" because there were much larger issues, but the right still pretended like he was going to get rid of their guns.
 

Quixzlizx

Member
Metric I saw was Hillary down 8m Dems from 2012 and Trump down 1m Republicans. Cant be overstated: Republicans always come home. Or, god this is my new favorite quote so thanks to the poster who brought it up: Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. If democrats arent in love with the top of the ticket, they just dont care to vote, fuck the ramifications of the democrats not winning. Various interviews with Republicans, hell even just informal conversations with people at my job, they disliked what Trump was doing (racism, bigotry, etc) but all either said "I will hold my nose and vote for him because its more important to have the Republicans win" or "Ill cross that bridge when I get there" which is basically a passive way of saying the first quote.

At my office, it was "Anyone is better than having the Clintons back in power" and paraphrased "nasty woman" arguments. In retrospect, that should've been worrying to me considering I live in the NYC suburbs and not rural Wyoming.

Also, my coworkers (and myself) who are in data-driven, analytical positions were the ones laughing about voting for that moron. We are the minority.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Guns will be handled by the courts holding up laws passed by the states. It's a non-starter on a federal level.

A way to dip into the Republican base, maybe? "We respect State laws, especially on gun rights". Slightly manipulative, since abortion wouldn't be, but, again, it's handled by the courts.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
"That’s why Clinton will launch a $20 billion initiative to create millions of new career opportunities for young Americans—including jobs and apprenticeships."

Yup, sounds like a tax break to me!

Are you also glossing over the part about infrastructure investment as well?



That first ad isn't a jobs plan. It doesn't actually mention what his plan is. It just says, "my plan rocks. her plan sucks."

The second ad is exactly what I was talking about. It's race baiting. "Massive illegal immigration." "Those globalists." "Jobs fleeing to Mexico and China." "Global power structure."

Note: globalists is a reference to people of the Jewish faith. Very common in alt-right circles.

Hillary Clinton's initiative for job creation relied entirely on the "generosity" of individual profiteers. Bernie Sanders wanted government agencies to directly employee young people to the benefit of our nation. This miniature New Deal was hard to accomplish, but far more direct. Nobody would argue that Trump's jobs plan was properly explained (or even solvent), but his promises were direct and simple and much easier to sell. "We'll make China bring back factory jobs" is a much better sound byte than "I have a plan to encourage job growth." This shouldn't be up for debate.

"Anti-globalism" absolutely has anti-Semitic connotations! But where do you think anger toward globalism comes from? This rhetoric is the misdirection of legitimate anger against capitalism toward an imaginary group of potentially Jewish conspirators who are trying to transform the world. Changes like immigration and unemployment are both consequences of capitalism. Anti-globalism allows candidates like Trump to benefit from fear these consequences without attacking the source. Fascists have been doing this for almost a century.
 
Assault weapon bans and background checks aren't that helpful either and No-Fly-No-Buy is a disaster.

Stopping domestic abusers from having guns and trying to limit gun suicides (with mandatory gun safes maybe?) is the best way to lower gun violence. Probably decriminalizing all drugs too.
 
Or we just go hole hog. No matter what we do they will say we want to take their guns away, even if we drop it, so why not just say we want to take their guns? They'll hit us on it anyway and it's the right thing to do besides.
If we can't get universal background checks passed, do you think we can institute massive Australia-style federal buyback programs and simultaneously not get struck down by the courts because of the second amendment?
 
I really, honestly think that the quickest, most direct counter-appeal to the WWC and rural voters is simple: healthcare.

that was part of the message that got Bill Clinton elected in 92, that's the message that completely galvanized Pennsylvania into voting D for decades. privatization of medicare will be hugely unpopular, repealing the ACA will be a complete disaster, etc.

ironically, part of the ACA's problem is that, because no one seems to understand what the fuck is actually in the bill, it's compromised nature is constantly used against it. it's just a catch-all for everything that is wrong with the system.

this is part of bernie's appeal (the part that mirror's trump). single-payer is a simplistic, effective appeal. it is a message. i hate that it's so fucking hard to control the messaging on healthcare. maybe now that the R's have control (and no plan to fix anything), it'll be easier to craft an insurgent message. i don't know.
The untested part about running on single payer is that it means a real tax hike. I'm not saying that's a non-starter, but I'd like to be more confident that we can win the tax hike element.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Guns will be handled by the courts holding up laws passed by the states. It's a non-starter on a federal level.



Reminds me of 2008 when Obama never even said the word "gun" because there were much larger issues, but the right still pretended like he was going to get rid of their guns.

No matter what we do they'll hit us on it, so we may as well own it. We may as well push for a full ban. It won't matter, it's already baked in.
 
I think the belief that Dems need to fall in love is correct, and could (should, even) be argued against on the basis of privilege. How privileged do you have to be to shirk your moral duty to make the world a better place, because you, personally, don't love the candidate put forward?

Considering liberal left loves to "check their privilege", I can see this being a slap in the face that might wake them up.

I would love to see that change. However, outside of each of those 8m having a sudden epiphany, how does the Democrat party instill this belief in their registered supporters? How does one campaign on a "look I know you might not be in love with me, that I might not excite you, but not voting for me is far more dangerous to the ideals that you do love, that do excite you"?

Hillary Clinton's initiative for job creation relied entirely on the "generosity" of individual profiteers. Bernie Sanders wanted government agencies to directly employee young people to the benefit of our nation. This miniature New Deal was hard to accomplish, but far more direct. Nobody would argue that Trump's jobs plan was properly explained (or even solvent), but his promises were direct and simple and much easier to sell. "We'll make China bring back factory jobs" is a much better sound byte than "I have a plan to encourage job growth." This shouldn't be up for debate.

"Anti-globalism" absolutely has anti-Semitic connotations! But where do you think anger toward globalism comes from? This rhetoric is the misdirection of legitimate anger against capitalism toward an imaginary group of potentially Jewish conspirators who are trying to transform the world. Changes like immigration and unemployment are both consequences of capitalism. Anti-globalism allows candidates like Trump to benefit from fear these consequences without attacking the source. Fascists have been doing this for almost a century.

Wait, expanding the number of roles in the public sector, in the government, is deemed the right solution? Having friends who still do or have worked for the government, the amount of redundancy and non-needed employees that federal government employees is already at a high level. Wouldnt it be best to improve their education and get them jobs in the private sector?
 

Renji_11

Member
The tactical response to this is that the soft Bernie supporters who might not have turned out could be in safe states, whereas the soft Hillary supporters were in swing states.

BUT...

Virginia. No way Bernie would have won Virginia, given how close it was and how it was so favorable for Clinton. Florida may have been further apart. And Pennsylvania probably wouldn't have flipped, because of how important minority turnout in Philadelphia was.

My realistic take is that Bernie would have kept MI and WI but lost VA. We still lose.

I don't think so Virginia looked close that night but it really wasn't it was right at the average at RCP which is 5 and that's without any campaign here. She won it by larger numbers than CO or NV. Bernie would had to campaign here but I think he would of won.
 
The untested part about running on single payer is that it means a real tax hike. I'm not saying that's a non-starter, but I'd like to be more confident that we can win the tax hike element.

The Colorado single-payer bill getting crushed makes me worry that single-payer isn't the way to go politically.

But there should be something simple thought up that can be easily sold to people.
 

Debirudog

Member
Assault weapon bans and background checks aren't that helpful either and No-Fly-No-Buy is a disaster.

Stopping domestic abusers from having guns and trying to limit gun suicides (with mandatory gun safes maybe?) is the best way to lower gun violence. Probably decriminalizing all drugs too.

the GOP would just imply slippery-slope logic and the idiots woud buy it. I feel like no matter how reasonable we approach this, there is pushback because conservatives believe in lies.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Are you serious?

Literally the person I was replying to in the first place... now calling for incrementalism... where as that understanding during and after the primary....

It's funny when incrementalism is only an acceptable option when talking about minority civil rights.

I saw it in OT it's come up here.

Let's not worry aboyt those people they'll vote Dem anyway.

My mistake. I misread East Lake's post and thought he was calling for economic advocacy alongside racial advocacy.
 

Hindl

Member
giving up on gun control is going to be a tough pill to swallow but it might have to be necessary.

Democrats lost that battle, at least for now. There were multitudes of different single issue voters, but I guarantee a portion of them hated Trump but voted for him anyway because they were afraid Hillary was going to take their guns
 

Quixzlizx

Member
No matter what we do they'll hit us on it, so we may as well own it. We may as well push for a full ban. It won't matter, it's already baked in.

Hypothetical future senators like Jason Kander, who still put up a great fight despite Hillary getting blown out of the water in MO, would vote against gun bans.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
giving up on gun control is going to be a tough pill to swallow but it might have to be necessary.

I'm not sure why Democrats pursued gun control at all. Banning weapons won't address the sources of crime and suicide. Moreover, empowering the government at the expensive of the masses isn't something progressives should support.
 
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