There is only one answer to this question. The momentum comes from the hopes and dreams that Silver has been funneling into his desperate Rubio fanfictions. It comes from the desperate need to not be a laughing stock after doubling down on the impossibility of Trump for the entire cycle.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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Really?!?
Come on Nate. All post ST polls they have on their own site have Trump leading in those states. It is going to be incredibly hard for Rubio to gain any momentum when Trump has won 13 states, Cruz has won 2, and Rubio 0.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Lol West had lost if.
QuiteWhittle
Member
r/politicaldiscussion is a million times better.
Basileus777
Member
Nate has convinced himself that Cruz is going to drop out. Which there is no chance of if he wins Texas, especially as he could very well finish the week ahead of Rubio in delegates with Rubio being down big in the polls in Florida.
Manmademan
Member
The same place where his irrational trump denial came from for months ago.
VendettaRed07
Member
I just don't get the insistence of people saying that Bernie is the next FDR and we are just throwing him away by not electing him
Do people realize the bullying, corruption, illegal and immoral things that FDR had to do in order to achieve the type of political power he got? Sure he used it to push through good legislation but the man had to sell his soul in order to make it happen. Bernie is in no way the same sort of guy.
Do people realize the bullying, corruption, illegal and immoral things that FDR had to do in order to achieve the type of political power he got? Sure he used it to push through good legislation but the man had to sell his soul in order to make it happen. Bernie is in no way the same sort of guy.
r/NeutralPolitics put every other sub to shame.
UltimaPooh
Member
Well he's not exactly wrong about money in politics.
Also what the hell VICE. Way to use a terrible picture of Dr. West.
User 463088
Banned
cartoon_soldier
Member
You are accusing John Lewis of being a sellout. Great.
UltimaPooh
Member
To be fair last night was just all of PoliGAF rubbing off on each other.
lastflowers
Banned
yep, you never go to a default r/[domain]. They've been sullied with shit posters for years. Reddit can be great when you find a more rigorously moderated subreddit, and often they can be hard to find.
UltimaPooh
Member
Ummm r/aww is always great.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh god I hate my phone.
User 463088
Banned
Are you ready for Tuesday Adam?
The great circlejerk of our time approaches.
EDIT: love you too
<3ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Rubio four days ago: "We're the party of diversity."
Leader of the Republican party today: "I have some nuanced views on the Klan."
Leader of the Republican party today: "I have some nuanced views on the Klan."
I agree with both of those notions, but it's hard to continue momentum when it gets reset after a constant barrage of crushing losses. Rubio crushes it at a debate, gets positive press/momentum, and then loses big on election day and has to answer questions about Trump's inevitability. Unless he starts winning States, it is a losing strategy because debates < elections.
Also, I want to see Rubio's campaign financing for this quarter. Sure, his PACs will be fully funded, but he was up there with Jeb in terms of the smallest number of grassroots donations. I think there is a very real possibility that, at least in terms of ground game, Rubio won't be able to compete much outside of FL for the next month.
User 463088
Banned
Come Tuesday, we will all be YUUUUGE.
Macho Madness
Member
Bernie. I love Bernie! Nice guy. But he blew it! He doesn't know how to win like I do!
theprodigy
Member
Super Tuesday delegate allocation rules by state ("winner-take-most" in CDs=2 for 1st, 1 for 2nd unless 1 candidate breaks a specified threshold, in which case they get all 3):
Proportional
Alaska: all 28 allocated statewide proportionally (13% threshold)
Massachusetts: all 42 allocated statewide proportionally (5% threshold)
Minnesota: if someone gets 85% of the vote statewide (LMAO) they win all 38 delegates, otherwise 24 district delegates allocated proportionally with a 10% threshold (how are you going to proportionally allocate 3 delegates?), 14 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 10% threshold
Virginia: all 49 delegates awarded proportionally to the statewide vote (no threshold)
Vermont: all 16 delegates awarded proportionally with 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
Winner Take Most
Alabama: 21 district delegates allocated winner take most with a 20% threshold/50% winner take all, 29 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
Arkansas: 12 district delegates allocated winner take most with 50% winner take all, 28 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold and 50% winner take all
Georgia: 42 district delegates allocated winner take most with 50% winner take all, 34 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
Oklahoma: 15 district delegates allocated winner take most with a 15% threshold and 50% winner take all, 28 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold and 50% winner take all
Tennessee: 27 district delegates allocated winner take most with a 20% threshold and 2/3 winner take all, 31 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 2/3 winner take all
Texas: 108 district delegates allocated winner take most with 20% threshold and 50% winner take all, 47 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
most notably Rubio might just fail to get a single district delegate out of Texas, so even if he comes out with like, 14 of the statewide delegates that's still less than 10% of the state's total
Proportional
Alaska: all 28 allocated statewide proportionally (13% threshold)
Massachusetts: all 42 allocated statewide proportionally (5% threshold)
Minnesota: if someone gets 85% of the vote statewide (LMAO) they win all 38 delegates, otherwise 24 district delegates allocated proportionally with a 10% threshold (how are you going to proportionally allocate 3 delegates?), 14 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 10% threshold
Virginia: all 49 delegates awarded proportionally to the statewide vote (no threshold)
Vermont: all 16 delegates awarded proportionally with 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
Winner Take Most
Alabama: 21 district delegates allocated winner take most with a 20% threshold/50% winner take all, 29 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
Arkansas: 12 district delegates allocated winner take most with 50% winner take all, 28 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold and 50% winner take all
Georgia: 42 district delegates allocated winner take most with 50% winner take all, 34 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
Oklahoma: 15 district delegates allocated winner take most with a 15% threshold and 50% winner take all, 28 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold and 50% winner take all
Tennessee: 27 district delegates allocated winner take most with a 20% threshold and 2/3 winner take all, 31 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 2/3 winner take all
Texas: 108 district delegates allocated winner take most with 20% threshold and 50% winner take all, 47 statewide delegates allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold and 50% winner take all
most notably Rubio might just fail to get a single district delegate out of Texas, so even if he comes out with like, 14 of the statewide delegates that's still less than 10% of the state's total
User 463088
Banned
Bernie. Nice guy. I agree. Love him. Yuge Socialist, though. But he doesn't win. He just dosen't know how to win. Spent millions. Millions. Got almost no votes. None at all. To a woman. Yuge disappointment. Millions. Can't win. Not a winner. Low energy. Won't build a wall. How can he make America great again when he can't even beat a war criminal in a primary. What a big mess.
: air horn :
Still not convinced you're not actually Donald Trump.
User 463088
Banned
CNN looked at this scenario and declared it to be nearly impossible. Rubio isn't going to run the table at any point.
lastflowers
Banned
mostly mean when looking for in-depth discussion about a topic.
For killing a few minutes, everyone's different.
Avon Barksdale
Member
Nate Silver and David "IT'S GONNA BE RUBIO!" Brooks are the same person at this point.
UltimaPooh
Member
Naw I get it. I love Bernie but there is too many posts about him on r/politics.
r/bestof is where I go to see in depth interesting stuff.
User 463088
Banned
links?
and just amazing
So you're saying there's a chance Bernie won Latinos again? /s
John King did a model last night in which Trump wins most of the ST states with Rubio getting the second most delegates and Cruz winning Texas. In that scenario, Rubio has to win FL or OH and then win EVERY OTHER STATE to outright win the nomination. If he loses FL, he will have to take it to the convention if he wants to win. If Rubio loses OH and FL, he is screwed.
how did Nina Turner take the news?
User 463088
Banned
To be fair, Bernie had no one else, really. He needed surrogates. If he actually had surrogates with a strong voice, we wouldn't have seen Killer Mike given such a prominent role in the campaign. He has an amazing ally in Nina Turner, but she cannot be everywhere at once. I just don't think Bernie had the luxury of turning down anyone who might turn out a voter or two. I think it was a bad miscalculation, but, what do I know.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Light the Manky Signal!
gutter_trash
Banned
Cruz has a better chance of jumping to 2nd place with a good Texas performance in delegate count.
This Rubio guy LOL, Media peddled. I don't think he will win anything
She was always a big mess anyway.
While I'd love to see a complete Trump sweep Tuesday, I think the best scenario is Sam Wang's prediction: Trump with a massive lead, Cruz wins Texas and comes into a solid second place, and Rubio stalls in third. I'd love to hear the rationalizing from the establishment in that scenario.
FloydtheFathead
Member
All States Matter..
Except Michigan of course.
Mrs. Manky
Banned
I'm almost convinced that Nina Turner is to Bernie Sanders what the late Stephanie Tubbs-Jones was to Hillary Clinton in 2008.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Bernie must be one hell of a warhawk in private.
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