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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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B

BoboBrazil

Member
The republicans running another candidate just ends in an independent run by Trump and a loss for the GOP. It would be db for them to contest him if he is the people's choice.
 
H

Holmes

Member
NeoXChaos said:
She's going to do it guys. Hold your pants for 6 EST. +TX



TIggy I think you will hand her the nomination on a silver platter tomorrow. Don't let us down up there.
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f3d1696bf2f20ba9db02ba464cf7ac0a16f2697d_r.gif
 
P

pigeon

Banned
BoboBrazil said:
The republicans running another candidate just ends in an independent run by Trump and a loss for the GOP. It would be db for them to contest him if he is the people's choice.
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If Trump gets nominated the GOP is going to get hammered anyway. The polls are awful for him. Clinton isn't just ahead in almost every poll, she's close to 50%, which is the point at which undecideds aren't relevant.

Depending on how badly they think Trump will do -- and remember, Clinton has already been targeted; her numbers are probably not going to drop much more, while Trump has never been subjected to the attacks of a general election campaign -- it might actually be wise, as McConnell was suggesting previously, to separate themselves from Trump and run on the platform that Hillary is inevitable so people need to vote GOP down-ticket to keep divided government. Running a third-party candidate would help sell that strategy.

That's what Sen. Sasse was doing saying that he won't vote Trump if he gets nominated -- investigating the dangers of such an approach. Sasse's probably pretty safe in Nebraska, so they can use him as a trial balloon.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 5m5 minutes ago
Monmouth poll

ALABAMA
Trump 42, Rubio 19, Cruz 16
Clinton 71, Sanders 23

OKLAHOMA
Trump 35, Cruz 23, Rubio 22
Sanders 48, Clinton 43
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Her people are more committed on both polls.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 7m7 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Monmouth has Clinton up 71-23 in Alabama. I'm taking the 'over' on Clinton margin. Poll is 53% black, I'd bet 70%.
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Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
@mattizcoop poll has sanders down 80-12 among black vtrs in AL
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P

pigeon

Banned
Diablos said:
Scalia can't talk for him anymore.
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I think this is actually true. Thomas probably used to rely on Scalia to ask the questions he wanted asked, since they were close and had similar legal approaches. He probably didn't even need to tell Scalia what he wanted, he just depended on him to think the same way.

Now he's got to ask it himself if he wants the question posed.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Watching Silver become a petty pundit has been somewhat entertaining, and also depressing. He has become everything he lampooned in 2012.
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What's funny is that he did exactly the opposite of what he did in 2012. If he just listened to the polls, they're telling him everything he needs to know.
 
H

Holmes

Member
I'd laugh so hard at Clinton winning Massachusetts and losing Oklahoma. Oklahoma has really become anti-Democratic in recent times.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
I don't understand the Bernie Oklahoma thing. I'd figure the Dems there would be conservative as hell.

Do they just hate Hillary that much?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
hipsterpants said:
I've been thinking, what is the least awful way for the GOP to handle the Trump nomination? A third party run could end in disaster if Trump hilariously wins more votes than the chosen establishment candidate. I feel like letting Trump run but not giving widespread party support/acceptance is probably the right choice.
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It depends.

If it goes to a brokered convention, I think they'll just steal it from him and walk away whistling. Trump will have to run third-party, and he probably will to prove his threats deserve respect. The GOP will lose horribly without the crypto-racist vote. But, I mean, it's pretty clear at this point that that strategy has reached its natural limitations. They're just going to suck it up for ten years or so and figure something else out.

If Trump gets nominated I expect the GOP to not support him much, for the same reasons. A third-party run is possible for the reasons I gave above, but probably not really that likely. They are more likely to just say "vote Gary Johnson" or whatever.

In either case, I think this helps illustrate the GOP's future. People have been arguing for a while as to what part of the GOP can survive and what part needs to drop off and wither -- should the GOP reorganize as a social reactionary party and lose the rich people economics? Should they give up on social issues and become mini libertarians? Should they try to split the coalition by accepting gays but still hating blacks? Etc., etc.

Trump's disaster of a campaign means that white supremacy/social reaction isn't going to win. Clearly it's not a general election possibility. So that probably means the GOP cuts off the South, starts paring back on the Christianity, and moves in Rand Paul's direction. Their goal is to make California and New York purple by appealing to libertarian technocrats, making inroads on traditionally blue states at the cost of giving up their Southern power base. It's probably going to take a while -- it took two decades for the Democratic Party, but then they have the internet now, so it might be faster.
 
P

pa22word

Member
Kusagari said:
I don't understand the Bernie Oklahoma thing. I'd figure the Dems there would be conservative as hell.

Do they just hate Hillary that much?
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Na, I'd say it's mostly Norman carrying Bernie through. Campus has exploded in terms of population relative towards the state.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Trump needs to win the nomination just so the GOP can do some damn soul-searching and fix things moving forward. I want a non-crazy GOP party. One that doesn't rely so much on fear and fact denial. One that doesn't show such a complete lack of empathy for huge swaths of the population. It can be done, I want to believe!

Also HOLY SHIT, a Black Donald Trump supporter is on TV. Even the reporter was shocked LOL
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
B-Dubs said:
Delegate count. MA has more to give.
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Not only that but it borders Vermont. And is one of the most liberal states in the country. He needs to sweep the NE states. It would be far more demoralizing for him to lose Massachusetts than Minnesota.

He drops out if he loses it I think.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
I've wanted a different GOP for years. It'd be nice to be able to choose between two parties instead of one that's sane but way too corporate or the fucking batshit crazy one.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Kusagari said:
I don't understand the Bernie Oklahoma thing. I'd figure the Dems there would be conservative as hell.

Do they just hate Hillary that much?
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There are "conservative" democrats who favor Bernie because he looks out for the middle class, wants to curb visa abuse, is anti-trade deals, etc.

The thing about this country is that neither party adequately captures populists, so those types of voters tend to gravitate to whatever candidate has the most populist position, not whatever party. Sometimes that's Republicans because of their immigration stance.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
going after the coveted alex jones endorsement?
Maggie Haberman Verified account
‏@maggieNYT

Trump said he'll open up the 9/11 commission papers that are secret so people can know who "really" knocked down WTC
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