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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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M

Macho Madness

Member
CcY4mhsW0AACTj-.jpg


These are people that are tired of losing.
 
T

thefro

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Its also telling that his favorables haven't improved since September. Can't see why they'll get better after the primaries are over.
Click to expand...

Eh, there will be some Republicans that will flip and start supporting him once he wraps up the nomination.

Clinton's favorables will go up too once the race with Sanders ends.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Gruco said:
Silver really became his own worst enemy this cycle, and exposed his severe limitations as an analyst. It's not clear he's actually capable of doing anything aside from running a simple regression, applying Bayes rule, and running his mouth like the rest of the media circus. Maybe he should join politico?
Click to expand...

Ouch. What's very telling is that Silver's track record is strong (though not really anything special compared to other data nerds like Wang) in presidential elections where you have robust state-level polling, but when he doesn't have that his models don't perform that well. I'll give him a pass on UK 2015 since the polls were so far off, but he did pretty badly with UK 2010, and his House of Representatives model sucked to the point where it's been mothballed for several cycles without a replacement. His math wizardry is highly overrated.

Now I still think he can add value to election reporting if he accepts his limitations and cuts out the punditry because even just pointing out what the polls are really saying is huge in the face of the media horse race narrative and partisans unskewing when their candidate is behind. Also, he's quite a good writer. In fact I'd go so far as to say writing is his real talent, not modeling. Unfortunately he's let his ego get in the way of that.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
There may be no polls out of Colorado but I'll be very clear...I've lived in both VT and CO, and they are similar in terms of the types of Democrats / Independents they attract.

I would heavily bet a on Bernie win in Colorado. It may not matter, but that is what I would bet.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Alex Jones has already jumped on the Trumptrain, a while back. He keeps having Roger Stone on, smashing the Clinton and getting inside info on Trumps campaign.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Someone to keep in mind for the VP spot is actually the Governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper.

I've been thinking his credentials set him up for a solid 2020/2024 run for awhile, but a VP nod solidifies that run. He ushered in one of the first, and one of the most successful, marijuana initiatives, one of the strongest economies in the country (GDP growth), and looks to institute state wide single payer in 2017.

He's currently campaigning for the Clinton campaign in Colorado.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
hipsterpants said:
I feel like letting Trump run but not giving widespread party support/acceptance is probably the right choice.
Click to expand...

That's basically what the Democrats did to McGovern in 1972. I'm not saying it will necesarily work this time, but the Democrats did keep the House and actually gained seats in the Senate.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I do wonder if Colorado's earlier registration deadline will hurt Bernie tomorrow. He probably still wins it, but it could put a dent in his numbers.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Of course Coburn is supporting Rubio, you don't go against the candidate who's talking about penis size, he could turn that against you. The Senate steam room was supposed to be a safe place but this campaign has no decency.
 
H

Hindl

Member
Grief.exe said:
Someone to keep in mind for the VP spot is actually the Governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper.

I've been thinking his credentials set him up for a solid 2020/2024 run for awhile, but a VP nod solidifies that run. He ushered in one of the first, and one of the most successful, marijuana initiatives, one of the strongest economies in the country (GDP growth), and looks to institute state wide single payer in 2017.

He's currently campaigning for the Clinton campaign in Colorado.
Click to expand...

Interesting I think I'll look into him a bit now
 
P

pigeon

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
it also explains the WV poll from a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...

I mean, I think those states really are the disastermouse effect.

There are a lot of disaffected broke white voters in Appalachia. I suspect that might extend to Oklahoma. The industries that used to be successful in that area are things like coal (gas is cheaper now), timber (China and Eastern Europe), textiles (Asia), steel (everybody but America) -- all industries that are just dead and gone. There's not just not jobs, there's no clear economic base or resources on which to build an industry that might give people jobs. When people talk about the terror of globalization, they're talking about West Virginia, home to the lowest labor force participation rate in the country (49.1%) and the highest rate of people on disability benefits (17.6%).

It is absolutely true to say that our current policies have failed Appalachia, and that nobody in government seems to have a plan for fixing it. It's easy to talk about building tech jobs, but it's hard to actually get Google employees to move to Charleston. So there probably are a bunch of white people who feel victimized by trade and abandoned by the establishment, and they aren't totally crazy. They do need help. It's not clear what will provide that help.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
pigeon said:
I mean, I think those states really are the disastermouse effect.

There are a lot of disaffected broke white voters in Appalachia. I suspect that might extend to Oklahoma. The industries that used to be successful in that area are things like coal (gas is cheaper now), timber (China and Eastern Europe), textiles (Asia), steel (everybody but America) -- all industries that are just dead and gone. There's not just not jobs, there's no clear economic base or resources on which to build an industry that might give people jobs. When people talk about the terror of globalization, they're talking about West Virginia, home to the lowest labor force participation rate in the country (49.1%) and the highest rate of people on disability benefits (17.6%).

It is absolutely true to say that our current policies have failed Appalachia, and that nobody in government seems to have a plan for fixing it. It's easy to talk about building tech jobs, but it's hard to actually get Google employees to move to Charleston. So there probably are a bunch of white people who feel victimized by trade and abandoned by the establishment, and they aren't totally crazy. They do need help. It's not clear what will provide that help.
Click to expand...

I can get down with this. I think when we do get a Kentucky poll its going to be good for Sanders.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Makai said:
No, that's crazy. I refuse to believe the political elites are that crazy.
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Some will fall in line but guys like Max Boot and Bill Kristol have gone too far. They can't back Trump now and have any credibility. It may not be Romney but they're going to find an establishment Republican who is willing to run third party and raise a lot of money for that person.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
pigeon said:
I mean, I think those states really are the disastermouse effect.

There are a lot of disaffected broke white voters in Appalachia. I suspect that might extend to Oklahoma. The industries that used to be successful in that area are things like coal (gas is cheaper now), timber (China and Eastern Europe), textiles (Asia), steel (everybody but America) -- all industries that are just dead and gone. There's not just not jobs, there's no clear economic base or resources on which to build an industry that might give people jobs. When people talk about the terror of globalization, they're talking about West Virginia, home to the lowest labor force participation rate in the country (49.1%) and the highest rate of people on disability benefits (17.6%).

It is absolutely true to say that our current policies have failed Appalachia, and that nobody in government seems to have a plan for fixing it. It's easy to talk about building tech jobs, but it's hard to actually get Google employees to move to Charleston. So there probably are a bunch of white people who feel victimized by trade and abandoned by the establishment, and they aren't totally crazy. They do need help. It's not clear what will provide that help.
Click to expand...

Tech jobs probably won't help much because it probably require a college degree and some of these people probably just have a HS. Whatever they need is a job growth stimulus, investment of infrastructure, and a more effective healthcare system I think.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
pigeon said:
I mean, I think those states really are the disastermouse effect.

There are a lot of disaffected broke white voters in Appalachia. I suspect that might extend to Oklahoma. The industries that used to be successful in that area are things like coal (gas is cheaper now), timber (China and Eastern Europe), textiles (Asia), steel (everybody but America) -- all industries that are just dead and gone. There's not just not jobs, there's no clear economic base or resources on which to build an industry that might give people jobs. When people talk about the terror of globalization, they're talking about West Virginia, home to the lowest labor force participation rate in the country (49.1%) and the highest rate of people on disability benefits (17.6%).

It is absolutely true to say that our current policies have failed Appalachia, and that nobody in government seems to have a plan for fixing it. It's easy to talk about building tech jobs, but it's hard to actually get Google employees to move to Charleston. So there probably are a bunch of white people who feel victimized by trade and abandoned by the establishment, and they aren't totally crazy. They do need help. It's not clear what will provide that help.
Click to expand...

I suspect that this brilliant term will get a lot of play in the future. Kudos for coining it!
 
P

pa22word

Member
pigeon said:
I mean, I think those states really are the disastermouse effect.

There are a lot of disaffected broke white voters in Appalachia. I suspect that might extend to Oklahoma. The industries that used to be successful in that area are things like coal (gas is cheaper now), timber (China and Eastern Europe), textiles (Asia), steel (everybody but America) -- all industries that are just dead and gone. There's not just not jobs, there's no clear economic base or resources on which to build an industry that might give people jobs. When people talk about the terror of globalization, they're talking about West Virginia, home to the lowest labor force participation rate in the country (49.1%) and the highest rate of people on disability benefits (17.6%).

It is absolutely true to say that our current policies have failed Appalachia, and that nobody in government seems to have a plan for fixing it. It's easy to talk about building tech jobs, but it's hard to actually get Google employees to move to Charleston. So there probably are a bunch of white people who feel victimized by trade and abandoned by the establishment, and they aren't totally crazy. They do need help. It's not clear what will provide that help.
Click to expand...

Oklahoma is going through an oil crisis atm that's wrecked the working class + we're currently going through the Kansas model with a 1.3 billion budget hole no thanks to a hefty tax cut Fallin pushed through for the top earners.

I mean dems like to talk about working class voting against their interests, but after Clinton pushed through Nafta and Obama is trying his damndest to get tpp through, who in the hell is actually looking out for their interests?
 
A

Abinash117

Member
pa22word said:
Oklahoma is going through an oil crisis atm that's wrecked the working class + we're currently going through the Kansas model with a 1.3 billion budget hole no thanks to a hefty tax cut Fallin pushed through for the top earners.

I mean dems like to talk about working class voting against their interests, but after Clinton pushed through Nafta and Obama is trying his damndest to get tpp through, who in the hell is actually looking out for their interests?
Click to expand...

I think the argument is that those manufacturing jobs are going to leave to a more competitive foreign market anyway or was on it's way out of America.
 
Z

Zona

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Probably Trump leading Clinton 41 to 38. Long Island is Republican, and weird.

Source: Me, growing up on Long Island.
Click to expand...

Still live on the Island and I can confirm. There's quite a few of us filthy liberals floating around, but on the Republican side this is Trump country. White rage, xenophobia, racism (Diet & Classic) are all hallmarks of the area.
 
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