-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
- Start date
- Status
shinra-bansho
Member
Looking at the states potentially demographically favourable to Sanders, the one that sticks out is Colorado.
It closed. And you had to be registered as a Democrat two months ago.
It closed. And you had to be registered as a Democrat two months ago.
Basileus777
Member
Trump focuses plenty on economics. His stump speech is about how America is losing in trade to everyone in the world and how he's going to fix it by making great deals, raising tariffs, and make America great again. It's a fundamental part of his message.
User 463088
Banned
brainchild
Banned
Hmm, ok I take back Mass. Hillary takes it (though at least Bernie won't get crushed in a delegate-rich state).
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Seriously, I almost felt bad for him. In fact I would if not for his shitstorm of a campaign against Obama.
I agree that part of Trump's appeal is that his message aims to address concerns (vaguely) that the GOP establishment seems keen on ignoring (they favor the rich over the middle class/poor - though on the flip side Trump's tax plan ain't so hot in this regard). I also agree that he seems to be the best on gay rights and women rights (but he still wants to defund PPP) relative to his GOP opponents. That doesn't change the fact, again if we believe what comes out of his mouth, that he wants to deport like half my family, implies large swaths of immigrants are rapists & murderers (he could have just stuck with "they took your jobs" if he wanted to stay 100% economical), etc.
Damn! That's brutal. What I don't at all understand is the insults Trump has thrown McCain's way and he still would support him. WTF!?
Based on what we saw in Nevada and SC, and the way the election is trending, and Bernie's prior reliance on camping out, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary consistently outperforms her polls tomorrow.
User 463088
Banned
The problem for Bernie is there are no states tomorrow in which he will crush anyone. There are several where Bernie will get crushed. Well, I mean, Vermont. He absolutely has to keep her from being viable there.
RustyNails
Member
Those numbers...
This election is all according to keikaku so much.
This election is all according to keikaku so much.
shinra-bansho
Member
If we take Massachusetts off the table and call it a wash.
That leaves Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma (none of which I'm entirely convinced he'll win) and Vermont.
I'd just give him all 16 of Vermont's delegates; that would cut her current margin down to ten.
So that leaves him states that have 181 delegates to try and cut into her current and potential margin.
I think she'll win Texas, with it's 222 delegates, by a much larger margin than whatever wins he gets from those states. So that alone would more than cancel any delegate advantage.
And that's before considering the other 5 states where she has wide leads.
That leaves Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma (none of which I'm entirely convinced he'll win) and Vermont.
I'd just give him all 16 of Vermont's delegates; that would cut her current margin down to ten.
So that leaves him states that have 181 delegates to try and cut into her current and potential margin.
I think she'll win Texas, with it's 222 delegates, by a much larger margin than whatever wins he gets from those states. So that alone would more than cancel any delegate advantage.
And that's before considering the other 5 states where she has wide leads.
Black Mamba
Member
days like tomorrow i'm so going to miss PD.
His "deep bench" GOP gonna lose to Trump.
Guys. There is no PD. And Trump is about to go against Hillary.
mixed feelings, man.
His "deep bench" GOP gonna lose to Trump.
Guys. There is no PD. And Trump is about to go against Hillary.
mixed feelings, man.
Bernie basically conceded giant margins in the south in order to keep the "state tally" as close a possible, and other than Vermont and maybe MN he's not going to have anything to show for it.
Of course, it's not clear there was anything he could have done to avoid 50 point blowouts in the south to begin with.
Of course, it's not clear there was anything he could have done to avoid 50 point blowouts in the south to begin with.
Basileus777
Member
It's all because the GOP failed to listen to his man Walker.
RustyNails
Member
To be fair he did predict Cruz being the dark horse after his boy Scott Walker bombed.
VendettaRed07
Member
I loved this fucking movie since DAY ONE.. And everyone. EVERYONE I've talked to since then acted like it was the worst movie all time.
I felt like I was CRAZY. Seeing anyone else actually say they like this movie besides me is blowing my mind right now.
Poligaf, always on my side.
Macho Madness
Member
Box of Kittens
Banned
He would get no statewide delegates if he's under 20%. He would still be eligible for delegates in congressional districts where he does well enough, and my understanding is he's trying to target certain districts pretty hard. Still, failing to hit the threshold in Texas would be a huge blow.
brainchild
Banned
Just speaking from on the ground here in MN, but there has been zero evidence to support the notion that Hillary will win Minnesota. But who knows, maybe the anecdotally overwhelming support for Bernie is just that; anecdotal.
gutter_trash
Banned
repack sunken tea leaves back into their bags
VendettaRed07
Member
The Revolution aren't doing too good in MA either. Our new DP signing is already out for the season
User 463088
Banned
If current polling is accurate, she could leave Georgia and Texas with a 100 delegate advantage, irrespective of any other state. She could literally 50/50 tie everywhere else and still have 100 delegates more than Bernie just based off of Georgia and Florida.
Heh, I was editing it in as you were posting, my bad.
Trump's already talked about the H1-B issue and it's actually a big deal to him
http://www.zdnet.com/pictures/h1b-visas-and-us-presidential-candidates-a-primer/
He appeals to the racists with the pigs blood comments, but he appeals to those who've lost their jobs to those overseas with the H1-B comments. He's trying to re-orient the party axis around a class war on top of a social war as opposed to just social issues, because I think he knows that the Dems will wreck them in a typical GOP economics (trickle down) vs Dem economic (liberalism) fight, and then will also hit them hard on a typical social fight (abortion, gay marriage, etc). He's picking the social conservative points that conservatives are still passionate about (muslims, illegals), and ignoring the ones they don't really care as much about (gay marriage).
Basically, he's going for both social and economic, and his only real path to victory is to hope that he only gets engaged on one - because he's shown so far that he's been able to be teflon when it comes to flip-flopping and moving towards the center and getting away with it. If he only has to move one of those to the center near the end of the GE - that's his best shot (still low) of winning.
We've got your back!
It seriously was a masterpiece. I was in the same camp. Reviews were terrible, but the stylized aspects of the film were god tier.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
lol Trump got the only three black guys in his crowd to stand behind him at this rally.
User 85168
Banned
FiveThirtyEight has a great set of guides on Super Tuesday contests. It includes electorate demographics, money raised, polling average, delegate target, delegate rules, and of course, their forecast!
Republican Democrat
Republican Democrat
I've seen this ad a lot on msnbc here in Pennsylvania (I have directv) in the last few days. It's becoming more annoying with each time. I don't really care how the campaign is being funded. That doesn't tell me anything significant about many of the issues people have. Once again he slowly focuses on wall street and uses a lot of time to do it. It's a wasted ad buy. He could have used that time to run off a number of stances he has on various issues.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
My bad, there's actually 4.
gutter_trash
Banned
gracias!
this will be handy
JetBlackPanda
Member
Marco pull up! PULL UP!
QuiteWhittle
Member
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I phone banked in to MN. Lots of Bernie people or Clinton supporters who can't caucus (older/sick). I'd be surprised if she wins.
Basileus777
Member
aspiegamer
Member
Ooh, Trump says he likes NASCAR? Who's my candidate if I like flashy European motorsport like Formula 1? Trump would fit in perfectly with those guys. Billionaires writing checks to billion-dollar companies essentially "for the lulz", essentially speculation betting on your team being better, getting more press and more prize money. Hell, some of the teams are owned outright by billionaire assholes.
How much did Trump pay these black people on CNN to stand behind him, I wonder?
How much did Trump pay these black people on CNN to stand behind him, I wonder?
Jack Remington
Banned
I put down a big bet on Hillary in MA when she was just a little over 50c to win it. One of the best non-Trump investments I've made on the site. She's up to 80c now.
Seems like he's a bit shook by this KKK thing.
User 463088
Banned
Oh man, I didn't realize how screwed Bernie really is.
If we say that both Georgia and Texas are 65/35 wins for Hillary:
Texas:
Hillary 144
Bernie 78
Georgia:
Hillary 66
Bernie 36
Hillary 210
Bernie 114
Just from those two states. That means even if they legitimately tied in every single other state tomorrow, Hillary would have a delegate lead of 122 (because she's currently leading among pledged delegates).
If we say that both Georgia and Texas are 65/35 wins for Hillary:
Texas:
Hillary 144
Bernie 78
Georgia:
Hillary 66
Bernie 36
Hillary 210
Bernie 114
Just from those two states. That means even if they legitimately tied in every single other state tomorrow, Hillary would have a delegate lead of 122 (because she's currently leading among pledged delegates).
That was sarcasm
But I feel like Rubio might actually get a bump if his squad rolled in togas
Alabama: Hillary by ~40 points.
American Samoa: Nobody cares.
Arkansas: Hillary by maybe 20 points.
Colorado: Hillary by single digits.
Georgia: Hillary by 30 points.
Massachusetts: Hillary by single digits.
Minnesota: Bernie by maybe 10 points.
Oklahoma: Bernie by single digits.
Tennessee: Hillary by 20 points.
Texas: Hillary by 30 points. May be pessimistic.
Vermont: Lol.
Virginia: Hillary by 20 points.
American Samoa: Nobody cares.
Arkansas: Hillary by maybe 20 points.
Colorado: Hillary by single digits.
Georgia: Hillary by 30 points.
Massachusetts: Hillary by single digits.
Minnesota: Bernie by maybe 10 points.
Oklahoma: Bernie by single digits.
Tennessee: Hillary by 20 points.
Texas: Hillary by 30 points. May be pessimistic.
Vermont: Lol.
Virginia: Hillary by 20 points.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked