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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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S

shinra-bansho

Member
Looking at the states potentially demographically favourable to Sanders, the one that sticks out is Colorado.

It closed. And you had to be registered as a Democrat two months ago.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Trump focuses plenty on economics. His stump speech is about how America is losing in trade to everyone in the world and how he's going to fix it by making great deals, raising tariffs, and make America great again. It's a fundamental part of his message.
 
P

PBY

Banned
adam387 said:
Emerson

Mass:

Hillary: 54%
Bernie: 43%

GOP:

Trump 51
Rubio 20
Kasich 14
Cruz 10
Click to expand...

speedpaunch.gif
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Cybit said:
I've always taken the entire "America will win again" and "Make America Great again" as an economic argument - that your lives have gotten worse due to globalization and trade and etc etc, and that we're gonna take that all back.

I think there are a lot of liberal leaning folks who desperately want to believe that it's just about social interests and racism and sexism because it makes it easy to just paint him a straight up mustache twirling 100% bad guy, but I just watched him defend PP on a GOP debate stage, and he hasn't touched gay marriage or bringing back the ten commandments in a courthouse.

His primary arguments are motivated by economics - even his immigration argument. There are enough dog-whistles to grab the racists onto his side - but I think his primary argument that resonates with people (and is what the GOP establishment is getting side-swiped on) is the economic one. It also explains the weird Bernie / Trump overlap on voters (and why Bernie would trounce Trump specifically while not doing as well against the other GOP candidates). Heck, even the ban all high skilled muslims is an economic argument if you're affected by the H1-B visa influx that's been driving certain industry salaries downward / stagnating wage growth while increasing productivity (software development, for example). Get the racists and the economic argument in one shot.
Click to expand...

I agree that part of Trump's appeal is that his message aims to address concerns (vaguely) that the GOP establishment seems keen on ignoring (they favor the rich over the middle class/poor - though on the flip side Trump's tax plan ain't so hot in this regard). I also agree that he seems to be the best on gay rights and women rights (but he still wants to defund PPP) relative to his GOP opponents. That doesn't change the fact, again if we believe what comes out of his mouth, that he wants to deport like half my family, implies large swaths of immigrants are rapists & murderers (he could have just stuck with "they took your jobs" if he wanted to stay 100% economical), etc.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
adam387 said:
If those Emerson Texas Dem numbers are even halfway accurate, Bernie is so screwed. I mean, totally screwed.
Click to expand...

Based on what we saw in Nevada and SC, and the way the election is trending, and Bernie's prior reliance on camping out, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary consistently outperforms her polls tomorrow.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
brainchild said:
Hmm, ok I take back Mass. Hillary takes it (though at least Bernie won't get crushed in a delegate-rich state.
Click to expand...

The problem for Bernie is there are no states tomorrow in which he will crush anyone. There are several where Bernie will get crushed. Well, I mean, Vermont. He absolutely has to keep her from being viable there.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Pulled a little bit of jiujitsu on the Hillary in Maine on PredictIt.

Bought shares a long time ago at 18 cents. Sold at 50 cents.

Just bought back in at 39 cents.

17251-asian-troll-face-visage-asiatique-s.png
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
If we take Massachusetts off the table and call it a wash.

That leaves Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma (none of which I'm entirely convinced he'll win) and Vermont.

I'd just give him all 16 of Vermont's delegates; that would cut her current margin down to ten.

So that leaves him states that have 181 delegates to try and cut into her current and potential margin.

I think she'll win Texas, with it's 222 delegates, by a much larger margin than whatever wins he gets from those states. So that alone would more than cancel any delegate advantage.

And that's before considering the other 5 states where she has wide leads.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
days like tomorrow i'm so going to miss PD.

His "deep bench" GOP gonna lose to Trump.

Guys. There is no PD. And Trump is about to go against Hillary.

mixed feelings, man.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Bernie basically conceded giant margins in the south in order to keep the "state tally" as close a possible, and other than Vermont and maybe MN he's not going to have anything to show for it.

Of course, it's not clear there was anything he could have done to avoid 50 point blowouts in the south to begin with.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Released said:
Rubio doesn't get anything under 20, right? Oh man...
Click to expand...

He would get no statewide delegates if he's under 20%. He would still be eligible for delegates in congressional districts where he does well enough, and my understanding is he's trying to target certain districts pretty hard. Still, failing to hit the threshold in Texas would be a huge blow.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Gruco said:
Hillary will win by South Carolina margins.

My predictions: Hillary wins everything but Vermont. Trump wins everything but Texas.

Don't dick me over on this, Minnesota.
Click to expand...

NeoXChaos said:
Alabama: Hillary
Arkansas: Hillary
Colorado: Hillary
Georgia: Hillary,.
Massachusetts: Hillary
Minnesota: Hillary
Oklahoma: Hillary
Tennessee: Hillary
Texas: Hillary
Vermont: Bernie, and Hillary is not viable.
Virginia: Hillary
American Samoa: Hillary
Click to expand...

Holmes said:
I think there's a chance Sanders does better in Oklahoma than Minnesota because many Oklahoma Democrats are idiots and voting against Clinton to them might be a way of voting against Obama.
Click to expand...

Just speaking from on the ground here in MN, but there has been zero evidence to support the notion that Hillary will win Minnesota. But who knows, maybe the anecdotally overwhelming support for Bernie is just that; anecdotal.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
If we take Massachusetts off the table and call it a wash.

That leaves Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma (none of which I'm entirely convinced he'll win) and Vermont.

I'd just give him all 16 of Vermont's delegates; that would cut her current margin down to ten.

So that leaves him states that have 181 delegates to try and cut into her current and potential margin.

I think she'll win Texas, with it's 222 delegates, by a much larger margin than whatever wins he gets from those states. So that alone would more than cancel any delegate advantage.

And that's before considering the other 5 states where she has wide leads.
Click to expand...

If current polling is accurate, she could leave Georgia and Texas with a 100 delegate advantage, irrespective of any other state. She could literally 50/50 tie everywhere else and still have 100 delegates more than Bernie just based off of Georgia and Florida.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Explain literally any of Trump's Muslim comments using economic reasons.

How is Trump saying he wants to massacre Muslim prisoners with pigs blood covered bullets an economic issue?

Trump isn't religious so he dgaf about gay marriage or abortion or that shit, but he's pretty clearly an extreme social conservative.
Click to expand...

Heh, I was editing it in as you were posting, my bad.

Trump's already talked about the H1-B issue and it's actually a big deal to him

http://www.zdnet.com/pictures/h1b-visas-and-us-presidential-candidates-a-primer/

He appeals to the racists with the pigs blood comments, but he appeals to those who've lost their jobs to those overseas with the H1-B comments. He's trying to re-orient the party axis around a class war on top of a social war as opposed to just social issues, because I think he knows that the Dems will wreck them in a typical GOP economics (trickle down) vs Dem economic (liberalism) fight, and then will also hit them hard on a typical social fight (abortion, gay marriage, etc). He's picking the social conservative points that conservatives are still passionate about (muslims, illegals), and ignoring the ones they don't really care as much about (gay marriage).

Basically, he's going for both social and economic, and his only real path to victory is to hope that he only gets engaged on one - because he's shown so far that he's been able to be teflon when it comes to flip-flopping and moving towards the center and getting away with it. If he only has to move one of those to the center near the end of the GE - that's his best shot (still low) of winning.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I loved this fucking movie since DAY ONE.. And everyone. EVERYONE I've talked to since then acted like it was the worst movie all time.

I felt like I was CRAZY. Seeing anyone else actually say they like this movie besides me is blowing my mind right now.

Poligaf, always on my side.
Click to expand...

We've got your back!

It seriously was a masterpiece. I was in the same camp. Reviews were terrible, but the stylized aspects of the film were god tier.
 
E

Effect

Member
BoboBrazil said:
Just saw a Bernie commercial in Texas. Of course he's talking about wall street and how he has small donors.
Click to expand...

I've seen this ad a lot on msnbc here in Pennsylvania (I have directv) in the last few days. It's becoming more annoying with each time. I don't really care how the campaign is being funded. That doesn't tell me anything significant about many of the issues people have. Once again he slowly focuses on wall street and uses a lot of time to do it. It's a wasted ad buy. He could have used that time to run off a number of stances he has on various issues.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
brainchild said:
Just speaking from on the ground here in MN, but there has been zero evidence to support the notion that Hillary will win Minnesota. But who knows, maybe the anecdotally overwhelming support for Bernie is just that; anecdotal.
Click to expand...
I phone banked in to MN. Lots of Bernie people or Clinton supporters who can't caucus (older/sick). I'd be surprised if she wins.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Ooh, Trump says he likes NASCAR? Who's my candidate if I like flashy European motorsport like Formula 1? Trump would fit in perfectly with those guys. Billionaires writing checks to billion-dollar companies essentially "for the lulz", essentially speculation betting on your team being better, getting more press and more prize money. Hell, some of the teams are owned outright by billionaire assholes.

How much did Trump pay these black people on CNN to stand behind him, I wonder?
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
I put down a big bet on Hillary in MA when she was just a little over 50c to win it. One of the best non-Trump investments I've made on the site. She's up to 80c now.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Oh man, I didn't realize how screwed Bernie really is.

If we say that both Georgia and Texas are 65/35 wins for Hillary:

Texas:
Hillary 144
Bernie 78

Georgia:

Hillary 66
Bernie 36

Hillary 210
Bernie 114

Just from those two states. That means even if they legitimately tied in every single other state tomorrow, Hillary would have a delegate lead of 122 (because she's currently leading among pledged delegates).
 
K

Kangi

Member
Alabama: Hillary by ~40 points.
American Samoa: Nobody cares.
Arkansas: Hillary by maybe 20 points.
Colorado: Hillary by single digits.
Georgia: Hillary by 30 points.
Massachusetts: Hillary by single digits.
Minnesota: Bernie by maybe 10 points.
Oklahoma: Bernie by single digits.
Tennessee: Hillary by 20 points.
Texas: Hillary by 30 points. May be pessimistic.
Vermont: Lol.
Virginia: Hillary by 20 points.
 
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