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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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Jarmel

Banned
If Kasich was going to drop out tonight, he would have done it weeks ago. He's still in.

If Cruz loses Texas then yea I can see him dropping out.
 
He will be banished from his home state, dropped off at the border without shoes, never to return. I think that's written somewhere in Texas law.

Which side of the wall?

Anyone see that the Union Leader rescinded their endorsement of Christie even though NH was like six years ago? LOLZ.
 
What if he loses!

Kasich dropping tonight makes no sense. Especially if he thinks he can play a roll in a brokered convention.

I don't see how Kasich stays in when he's been averaging 4-5% of the vote, except for NH where he came 2nd. What kind of role is he going to play in a brokered convention? He's getting beat in his own state by Trump. I guess pride might keep him in, but things aren't going to get better for him unless he pulls out some more 2nd place wins tonight.
 

Jarmel

Banned
I don't see how Kasich stays in when he's been averaging 4-5% of the vote, except for NH where he came 2nd. What kind of role is he going to play in a brokered convention? He's getting beat in his own state by Trump. I guess pride might keep him in, but things aren't going to get better for him unless he pulls out some more 2nd place wins tonight.

He has known for awhile now that he was going to get blown out tonight. This wasn't his demographic base.

What matters is how Rubio performs in FL and him in Ohio.
 
I don't see how Kasich stays in when he's been averaging 4-5% of the vote, except for NH where he came 2nd. What kind of role is he going to play in a brokered convention? He's getting beat in his own state by Trump. I guess pride might keep him in, but things aren't going to get better for him unless he pulls out some more 2nd place wins tonight.

His whole thing is win Ohio since it's WTA. If he does that, he may have comparable numbers to Rubio who won't have won anything, let alone his home state. The idea is make it a 3 person race in which Cruz and Kasich have won their home states against Rubio who has managed to make 2nd place into the new 1st.

It's not a great strategy, but it's better than nothing.
 
The establishment needs to force Rubio and Kasich out if they win nothing an Cruz wins Texas

They really need to wake up and realize getting behind trump can cost them their own jobs. Deserved or not, Cruz does not have the same "racist" tag on his forehead that Trump does. It isn't as damaging politically to endorse Cruz like it is With Trump. They need to get behind him for their own sake if he wins Texas. It doesn't matter how much they hate him or hate working with him. He will be significantly less damaging with their parties image and they need to roll with him
Edit: Trump not Kasich
 

Jarmel

Banned
The establishment needs to force Rubio and Kasich out if he wins nothing an Cruz wins Texas

They really need to wake up and realize getting behind trump can cost them their own jobs. Deserved or not, Cruz does not have the same "racist" tag on his forehead that Trump does. It isn't as damaging politically to endorse Cruz like it is Kasich. They need to get behind him for their own sake if he wins Texas. It doesn't matter how much they hate him or hate working with him. He will be significantly less damaging with their parties image and they need to roll with him

They hate Cruz too much.
 
The establishment needs to force Rubio and Kasich out if they win nothing an Cruz wins Texas

They really need to wake up and realize getting behind trump can cost them their own jobs. Deserved or not, Cruz does not have the same "racist" tag on his forehead that Trump does. It isn't as damaging politically to endorse Cruz like it is Kasich. They need to get behind him for their own sake if he wins Texas. It doesn't matter how much they hate him or hate working with him. He will be significantly less damaging with their parties image and they need to roll with him

There was a Republican strategist on MSNBC who was basically arguing this. At this point, Rubio is just not going to happen. A brokered convention is not going to allow them to pick a viable candidate. They'll pick a candidate, but he won't be viable. Instead, focus on the slightly lesser of two evils and go with Cruz.

Interestingly, Cruz has mostly kept himself protected from the batshit Rubio/Trump stuff. He's basically lied out of his ass saying Trump is a member of the mafia and that's why his taxes are being audited, but he's, at least, not dropped down to penis level insults.

At a certain point the establishment is going to have to settle for "good enough." They can't pretend a guy who has a chance of being 0 and 15 is entitled to the nomination.
 
He has known for awhile now that he was going to get blown out tonight. This wasn't his demographic base.

What matters is how Rubio performs in FL and him in Ohio.

His whole thing is win Ohio since it's WTA. If he does that, he may have comparable numbers to Rubio who won't have won anything, let alone his home state. The idea is make it a 3 person race in which Cruz and Kasich have won their home states against Rubio who has managed to make 2nd place into the new 1st.

It's not a great strategy, but it's better than nothing.

Ah this makes sense. Only going to get tougher for him if things go like I hope tonight though and Trump keeps racking up wins.
 
Think Cruz will suspend tonight?
I don't think so, assuming he wins Texas and comes in second in a few southern states. Can't look it up now but I'd imagine he has more cash on hand than Rubio. The problem for Cruz is that he can't knock Rubio off because generally accepted campaign principles don't apply to Rubio. Rubio hasn't come close to winning one state and is going to be blown out in his home state, yet could stay in this race solely because the establishment needs him. If Cruz had any friends or was viable the establishment might have decided to make him their man....but he's so hated that it's a non starter.

So basically it's a stalemate. Cruz has no personal or campaign reason to drop out, and Rubio is currently immortal. And the stalemate just makes a Trump win more likely. Amazing...
 

Jarmel

Banned
Here's the other thing, the party could eventually recover from a Trump nom. With Cruz however they would be legitimizing the Tea Party and guaranteeing a split in the future.

Trump's faction doesn't match with the Tea Party and that's good news for the Establishment.
 

Farmboy

Member
They hate Cruz too much.

Exactly, I wouldn't be surprised if most don't secretly (or even openly) prefer Trump.

Regarding drop-outs:

Kasich dropping out now makes no sense. Of course, it doesn't really make sense that he's still in either. But he might as well ride it out until Ohio at this point.

Cruz may drop out if he loses Texas. So let's hope he doesn't.

Rubio should drop out after Florida. Whether or not he will is anyone's guess.

Bernie obviously won't drop out tonight. But I doubt he'll go all the way to the convention either. If he does poorly tonight and the tide doesn't change before March 15, I can see him actually suspending his campaign before the end of this month.

Carson is almost certainly dropping out tonight though. Right?
 

Kusagari

Member
The party likely sees Trump as a one time thing. Let him offer himself up and hopefully get destroyed, and then hope all his followers are tamed back to following the parties will.

With Cruz there's no putting the rabbit back in the hat. He isn't going anywhere if he becomes the nominee.
 

Teggy

Member
On Good Morning America Trump said "There is no one who has done more for equality than I have."

I would assume that's where the quote ends (which is his MO, just make shit up)? Because he has nothing to back that up.

Bernie must have put a ton of money on CNN/MSNBC today. Literally a commercial during every break.
 
I think Carson drops out tonight. He's holding his campaign event in Maryland, where he lives. He has to be finished.

Kasich just needs to make it to Ohio. I think he can. After that who knows how long he'll last. If he can outlast Rubio perhaps...but it's unlikely.

This bottleneck is going to give Trump the nomination unless something drastic happens.
 
Hardcore conservative talk show hosts and writers are coming out as pretty supportive of the Klan.

Ccblh-7WoAELnCW.jpg


CcbliCkWIAAIOah.jpg


................

Hmm, not that surprising I guess?
 

Farmboy

Member
The goal of his campaign seems to be to sell books and increase Carson's profile

He did abysmally in Iowa New Hampshire SC and Nevada

Why would he drop out today?

I mean sure, he should have dropped out a while ago. But I'm guessing enough is enough, even for him.
 

PBY

Banned
Hardcore conservative talk show hosts and writers are coming out as pretty supportive of the Klan.

Ccblh-7WoAELnCW.jpg


CcbliCkWIAAIOah.jpg


................

Hmm, not that surprising I guess?

That's why I don't think the KKK thing matters in the primary. How long have people been calling the GOP racist now?
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Grayson is up against Murphy 33 to 22.

I can't underscore how much of a disaster he would be and I truly hate that he's running. Trumpism on the left.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I'm still excited about the prospect of amazing general election commercials tying various Republican elected officials to Trump. Hillary has a pretty decent messaging crew, especially when it comes to editing commercials where it's one bad GOP statement after another.
 
I'm still excited about the prospect of amazing general election commercials tying various Republican elected officials to Trump. Hillary has a pretty decent messaging crew, especially when it comes to editing commercials where it's one bad GOP statement after another.
I hope we see commercials of the bullshit statements Walker, Cruz, Rubio and all the assholes have said tying them to Trump like the asshole he is.
 

pigeon

Banned
Trump's main block of potential voters hate Muslims, hate the 14th amendment, love military force, but.... hate gay people and don't care at all about trade deals?

authoritarians_correlation.001.0.jpeg


http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism


Didn't expect total indifference to trade deals to come up from American nationalists.

This article is really important because it goes into a bunch of stuff we've talked about here!

* Why Trump is literally Hitler
* How it really is all about having a black President
* How white people are the worst, according to (social) science
* How Trump reflects the fracturing of the GOP and how it has to jettison the authoritarians or continue to fail forever
* How Trump totally can't win because most people don't like Hitler

Everybody go read this.
 

Kusagari

Member
Grayson is up against Murphy 33 to 22.

I can't underscore how much of a disaster he would be and I truly hate that he's running. Trumpism on the left.

In one way I like that Grayson is winning because it reprents that Florida Democrats have a hungering for a real progressive instead of the moderates constantly offered up.

On the other hand it's terrible because Grayson is a huge piece of shit with enough skeletons in his closet to completely bury him.
 

Muzy72

Banned
Well, Ted Cruz losing in the general would be the ultimate sign that the American people do not want conservatism. So in that sense I think it's worse for Cruz to be the nominee. He represents the truest version of the GOP's values.
 
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