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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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R

RustyNails

Member
Kasich is positioning himself as the establishment hope. If Rubio fails to win FL but Kasich wins OH, it will work in his favor. So whatever party decides nonsense strategy will have Kasich in the driver's seat instead of Rubio. That's his plan.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
New PPP poll just dropped but it's mainly about Senate races.

76% support raising the minimum wage over $10/hour.

Rubio approval at 31%

Rick Scott at 38%

Bill Nelson at 40%

Obamacare approval at 43% (Disapprove is at 42%)

65% say they would vote for a medical marijuana referendum
 
E

East Lake

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump's main block of potential voters hate Muslims, hate the 14th amendment, love military force, but.... hate gay people and don't care at all about trade deals?

https://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6124643/authoritarians_correlation.001.0.jpeg

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism


Didn't expect total indifference to trade deals to come up from American nationalists.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but that infographic is specifically about people who they identify as authoritarians, not Trump supporters. I haven't looked through the whole article but I don't know if it makes it clear where he compares with someone like Cruz.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hardcore conservative talk show hosts and writers are coming out as pretty supportive of the Klan.

Ccblh-7WoAELnCW.jpg


CcbliCkWIAAIOah.jpg


................

Hmm, not that surprising I guess?
Click to expand...

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Republicans and conservatives are going to have to constantly put themselves in awkward positions like this. If you are Romney how do you not react like this? But the base is going to hate seeing their establishment trash the nominee. Both are things that can cost them their seats. They are literally damned if they do damned if they don't with Trump. With Cruz is more about swallowing their pride and personal dislike for the guy.

Cruz will have his gaffes and some gross foreign policy/immigration stances.. But he will not put other republicans in positions where they are forced to look like they are defending the fucking Klan for gods sake.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Y2Kev said:
Think Cruz will suspend tonight?
Click to expand...
Zero chance.
Y2Kev said:
What if he loses!
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He probably won't.
Plumbob said:
If he wins Texas and Rubio wins nothing why would he?
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Exactly.

I think his goal at this point will be to try to set up a future Presidential run, similar to Reagan's efforts is 76' and Kennedy's efforts in 80'.

Here's my wild speculation:

-By the end of the night he will have won Texas and Iowa, two more states than anyone except Trump. He will then have one last stand at the debate on Thursday and he will try to shine at CPAC this week.

-He will then limp on until March 15th (by which point it will be abundantly cleat that Trump will be the nominee) in order to split the vote enough to definitely deny Kasich or Rubio the chance to win their own states.

-He will then drop out as the clear second place finisher in this cycle's republican primary.

-He will eventually support Trump, but he will try to wrangle a plum timeslot to speak at the RNC convention this summer. His justification for supporting Trump will be supreme court nominations, a pledge that would be less plausible if Scalia's seat weren't open. This will save him from embarrassing interviews like the one Christie had over the weekend.

-An outcome like this would set him up for an easy reelection win for his senate seat, and would put him in a prime position to run for president in a future election (he's only 45).
 
E

effzee

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hardcore conservative talk show hosts and writers are coming out as pretty supportive of the Klan.

Ccblh-7WoAELnCW.jpg


CcbliCkWIAAIOah.jpg


................

Hmm, not that surprising I guess?
Click to expand...

Not surprising considering they all dog whistle during election season and even if they aren't consciously racist, their policies and world views are.

What shocks me is that these 2 are defending Donald. Have they come out in support of him overall?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Great quote from an early Trump supporter now that it looks like he's actually going to get the nom:

Trump-backing top GOPer to @jameshohmann: 'I might as well be like Slim Pickens...and just ride the atomic bomb down and see what happens'
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Thinking back to #Gamergate and how the Alt-Right (which Trump is probably a part of even if he has never heard of it) emerged into American discussion with that horrific hatred of women makes me realize how truly awful Trump vs. Hillary will be with regards to sexism. Imagine #GG but with ten million Trump supporters online instead of just 10,000 dudes. Hasn't been much of an opportunity for Trump to use his sexism in this primary yet due to lack of women competitors.

East Lake said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but that infographic is specifically about people who they identify as authoritarians, not Trump supporters. I haven't looked through the whole article but I don't know if it makes it clear where he compares with someone like Cruz.
Click to expand...

The article states that authoritarianism is strongly positively correlated with voting for Trump.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Thinking back to #Gamergate and how the Alt-Right (which Trump is probably a part of even if he has never heard of it) emerged into American discussion with that horrific hatred of women makes me realize how truly awful Trump vs. Hillary will be with regards to sexism. Imagine #GG but with ten million Trump supporters online instead of just 10,000 dudes. Hasn't been much of an opportunity for Trump to use his sexism in this primary yet due to lack of women competitors.
.
Click to expand...

The light at the end of that tunnel is that 53% of voters in 2012 were women.
 
T

Teggy

Member
This is what Donald Trump held up as doing more for equality than anyone.

While Trump bills Mar-a-Lago as “totally open,” the club’s website calls it “one of the most impressive and exclusive private clubs, made even more glamorous by Mr. Trump.” It is decidedly not for everyone: “Membership at the club provides the highest privileges and an elite lifestyle reserved for a select few.”

Members have access to “the finest signature European indoor and terrace dining, the world renowned oceanfront swimming pool and Beach Club, the luxurious Trump Spa and Salon, six championship tennis courts, a full size croquet court, a chip and putt golf course, a state of the art fitness center, and the most coveted entertaining space, which includes the elegant White and Gold Ballroom, and the sumptuous Donald J. Trump Grand Ballroom.”

Joining the club requires an initiation fee of at least $100,000, plus more than $10,000 in yearly fees. Actually using the club costs more, with rooms costing thousands of dollars per night.
Click to expand...
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Thinking back to #Gamergate and how the Alt-Right (which Trump is probably a part of even if he has never heard of it) emerged into American discussion with that horrific hatred of women makes me realize how truly awful Trump vs. Hillary will be with regards to sexism. Imagine #GG but with ten million Trump supporters online instead of just 10,000 dudes. Hasn't been much of an opportunity for Trump to use his sexism in this primary yet due to lack of women competitors.



The article states that authoritarianism is strongly positively correlated with voting for Trump.
Click to expand...

The beauty of it is that they are an extremely vocal minority and their ugliness will help solidify Hillary's support among decent human beings*. It'll be awful to listen to, but I think it will help her win.

*-I originally typed 'solidify Hillary's support among women.'
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
If Hillary wins the Presidency she'll be the first candidate to do so despite losing white men in both the primaries and the general (IIRC Obama won white men but lost white women in the 2008 primaries).

That's kinda awesome.
 
M

Makai

Member
The Technomancer said:
That Vox piece is quite good
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This is the key paragraph

According to Stenner's theory, there is a certain subset of people who hold latent authoritarian tendencies. These tendencies can be triggered or "activated" by the perception of physical threats or by destabilizing social change, leading those individuals to desire policies and leaders that we might more colloquially call authoritarian.
Click to expand...
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
This article is really important because it goes into a bunch of stuff we've talked about here!

* Why Trump is literally Hitler
* How it really is all about having a black President
* How white people are the worst, according to (social) science
* How Trump reflects the fracturing of the GOP and how it has to jettison the authoritarians or continue to fail forever
* How Trump totally can't win because most people don't like Hitler

Everybody go read this.
Click to expand...
The Technomancer said:
That Vox piece is quite good
Click to expand...

Quite literally the best thing I've ever seen on Vox. Must read, people.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Macho Madness said:
New PPP poll just dropped but it's mainly about Senate races.

76% support raising the minimum wage over $10/hour.

Rubio approval at 31%

Rick Scott at 38%

Bill Nelson at 40%

Obamacare approval at 43% (Disapprove is at 42%)

65% say they would vote for a medical marijuana referendum
Click to expand...

So Rubio has a 31% approval rating in his own state and people say he is guaranteed to win Florida? Why?
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Plinko said:
So Rubio has a 31% approval rating in his own state and people say he is guaranteed to win Florida? Why?
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Polling is not perfect, but you can't disregard it, especially in primary states. It's the most solid indicator of results. Unless you're a Rubio supporter, you have no reason to ignore it.

If I was a campaign I would outsource internal polling. There's too many ways bias can leak into the process. It's fine to be optimistic, but you shouldn't lead yourself to disappointment.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
A Human Becoming said:
If I was a campaign I would outsource internal polling. There's too many ways bias can leak into the process. It's fine to be optimistic, but you shouldn't lead yourself to disappointment.
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This is a tricky concept. One of the reasons Obama's team performed so well back in 2012 is that they poured a ton of resources finding out where the voters actually were. They had a better understanding of the electorate than any pollster because of that investment. To get accurate data they would have had to share some of their internal findings with the third-party. Which could have gotten out and minimized their edge.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
The GOP are going to do everything they can do destroy Trump between tomorrow and March 15.

But over 300,000 ballots have already been cast in Florida.
 
E

East Lake

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The article states that authoritarianism is strongly positively correlated with voting for Trump.
Click to expand...
I don't think they have any comparison in there. For example that strong correlation is 14% more with very high authoritarians than with low. Maybe that's drastically more than a with a Rubio, Cruz, Kasich but afiak the article doesn't address it.
 
GuyKazama

GuyKazama

Member
effzee said:
Not surprising considering they all dog whistle during election season and even if they aren't consciously racist, their policies and world views are.

What shocks me is that these 2 are defending Donald. Have they come out in support of him overall?
Click to expand...

They aren't 'supporting the klan.' They are pointing out that Trump has a history of being against anti-semitic and racist organizations. Laura explained this more on her show. Trump bailed on the Reform Party back in 2000 citing Buchanan's racist and anti-semitic remarks. She also cited his earlier press conference on Friday. They know that Romney knows this, and they are calling BS on Romney. They would prefer he attack Trump on issues.
 
U

User 406

Banned
pigeon said:
This article is really important because it goes into a bunch of stuff we've talked about here!

* Why Trump is literally Hitler
* How it really is all about having a black President
* How white people are the worst, according to (social) science
* How Trump reflects the fracturing of the GOP and how it has to jettison the authoritarians or continue to fail forever
* How Trump totally can't win because most people don't like Hitler

Everybody go read this.
Click to expand...

Hey, remember way back earlier in the primary when people who were pointing out how Trump was using the fascist playbook got pooh-poohed because there's no way he's an f-word because reasons and Godwin and stuff and it's totally not fascism it just isn't okay? Good times.
 
M

Makai

Member
This Vox article makes the general sound way more winnable for Republicans if a bunch of authoritarians get sorted into the Republicans this year.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Makai said:
This Vox article makes the general sound way more winnable for Republicans if a bunch of authoritarians get sorted into the Republicans this year.
Click to expand...

Assuming that women, LGBT people, and people of color (spoilers: This is like 70-80% of America) are willing to be degraded to go along with Trump.
 
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