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[Slayven]

In a certain way it kind of does. But Jeb already proved it for him. If nothing else it proves that you can't just rely on money to win a campaign.

I still want a 10 hour Ken Burn, Morgan Freeman narrated documentary on Jeb's campaign.

 

[Fuchsdh]

I think a lot of pundits don't get enough credit. A lot of them have benji-esque historical knowledge. Usually learn something when I listen to Chris Matthews.

I don't doubt they're knowledgeable on politics (most posters here are so far into inside baseball compared to me that they're inscrutable) but that doesn't translate into actual better predictions. I think it was Freakonomics that found that the "expert" edge in predictions is something tiny like 55%. Doing 5% better than a random guess is not something to rely on.

I joked about Scalia's Ghost hanging out with us in chat tonight, but he might be at the court itself.

I really like the fact that they don't allow recording in the supreme court, because I find reporter's recaps far more entertaining. The narrative description of everyone freaking out about Thomas asking a question was far more hilarious than just a video.

 

[B-Dubs]

If I were Trump and he sweeps today, my answer to literally every question at the debate would be "I'm leading, your losing, I've won 13 States, you have won 0 and Nasty Cruz has won 2. By the way was little Rubio, stop sweating so much. Do you want some water?"

I'd throw in a "Why are you even here?" at the beginning and end of that answer.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Trump is on now. Going on about the hands comment and escalators..

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Obama did just as badly with white women as Kerry(44 percent to Bush/Romney's 55). He won women because he racked up enormous majorities among black(who turned out higher than any other group), Hispanic, and Asian women to make up for that deficit with white women.

The parties might realign but I know for sure, so long as that realignment is because of Trump, that the GOP won't be making enough inroads with minority women to change that liberal lean.

Says a lot about white people that they are the only ethnic group that doesn't lean democrat overall. Donald Trump's sole stroke of genius was realizing that race supercedes all other issues in american politics.

 

[B-Dubs]

Trump is on now. Going on about the hands comment and escalators..

Escalators? Why escalators?

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Escalators? Why escalators?

I don't know. He was talking about riding one with Melania and saying we got to do it. What it was I don't know because Fix cut away. He jumped from the hand thing to the crowd cheering and saying little Marco and stuff toescalators and I don't know why.

 

[vicissitudes]

Escalators? Why escalators?

You know what they say about men with small escalators...

 

[Retromelon]

Is there a good reason why chat cant be open to lurkers btw. Their insight would probably be refreshing

 

[Y2Kev]

My queen...yasss..werq..

Am I doing it right

No. WERK has to be spelled with a k and in caps. You betta WERK

 

[NeoXChaos]

Says a lot about white people that they are the only ethnic group that doesn't lean democrat overall. Donald Trump's sole stroke of genius was realizing that race supercedes all other issues in american politics.

well they haven't for 50 years. Johnson was the last to carry the white vote overall.

 

[Bowdz]

I'd throw in a "Why are you even here?" at the beginning and end of that answer.

Lol, indeed.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

well they haven't for 50 years. Johnson was the last to carry the white vote overall.

Right, ever since the civil rights act caused a party realignment. To be honest I'm surprised no candidate has been as forthcoming about xenophobia, racism etc until Trump. I guess most candidates are more mindful of the general election.

 

[Effect]

The David Duke thing definitely hurts Trump... But it might be too late.

If they keep it up even after it looks like Trump has the delegates then that might signal that they are going to do their best to make sure he doesn't get the nomination at the convention or they're okay with losing the presidency if it means they can regain control over their party and keep their house and senate seats. That coupled with McConnel having given the okay for people to distance themselves from Trump or run ads against him and people being very direct and open about their lack of support for Trump no matter what. I really think many in the GOP don't want Trump in power and reshaping their party in his image. I think for some of them "anyone but Trump" really does mean anyone but him.

 

[ivysaur12]

Is there a good reason why chat cant be open to lurkers btw. Their insight would probably be refreshing

I don't want non Neogafferson on it like if that shitty subreddit decides to spam it.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Obama did just as badly with white women as Kerry(44 percent to Bush/Romney's 55). He won women because he racked up enormous majorities among black(who turned out higher than any other group), Hispanic, and Asian women to make up for that deficit with white women.

The parties might realign but I know for sure, so long as that realignment is because of Trump, that the GOP won't be making enough inroads with minority women to change that liberal lean.

Likewise you can break the white female woman vote down. Obama won younger women but lost older women, who vote more. You could argue that democrats will begin to do better with white women as older ones die off. I think Clinton's results in November could ultimately be an outlier if she faces Trump; she'll destroy him among women and do better than Kerry or Obama with white women. Will that continue in 2020 when republicans almost certainly have a better candidate?

 

[B-Dubs]

Right, ever since the civil rights act caused a party realignment. To be honest I'm surprised no candidate has been as forthcoming about xenophobia, racism etc until Trump. I guess most candidates are more mindful of the general election.

I think despite everything, the GOP still harbored these ideas of expanding the party. The problem is the dog whistles have always been fairly well telegraphed.

I have to say, that article on authoritarianism was excellent. It fits really nicely into the other theories about the rise of Trump, that it started with the Southern Strategy and whatnot, and fills in a few gaps that were missing. I'm surprised we got such a good explanation of what's going on already, I expected we'd have to wait a few years for such an article.

 

[Grief.exe]

Right, ever since the civil rights act caused a party realignment. To be honest I'm surprised no candidate has been as forthcoming about xenophobia, racism etc until Trump. I guess most candidates are more mindful of the general election.

The party really took a step to the radical starting in the mid 90's (Newt Gingrich Congress, Clinton Impeachment. Then with the advent of Fox News and Rush Limbaugh pushing this narrative daily for the last 20 years, you really have a perfect storm for creating ignorance.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I don't want non Neogafferson on it like if that shitty subreddit decides to spam it.

its just going to be terrible if it was public.

 

[Black Republican]

Media won't shut up about this David Duke thing. They are trying to push this narrative hard.

i wish voter supression and dog whistle racism got this much attention


sigh

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Rubio v Grayson for governor 2018

Please kill me.

 

[Plinko]

So Trump is being labeled as "hateful" by the media and other opponents now?

That's rich, considering he is the only republican during the debates to talk about taking care of the poor with health care and preventing discrimination against those with pre-existing conditions.

Also rich coming from Ted Cruz, the man who says it is ok to kill innocents in countries with terrorists.

 

[B-Dubs]

i wish voter supression and dog whistle racism got this much attention


sigh

It's a lot easier to deny and obfuscate the dog whistle shit unfortunately. Can't do that when the Klan is involved though.

 

[Grief.exe]

So Trump is being labeled as "hateful" by the media and other opponents now?

That 's rich, considering he is the only republican during the debates to talk about taking care of the poor with health care and preventing discrimination against those with pre-existing conditions.

Also rich coming from Ted Cruz, the man who says it is ok to kill innocents in countries with terrorists.

Have to justify that 2.5 trillion increase in military spending by bombing somebody.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

i wish voter supression and dog whistle racism got this much attention


sigh

The only things that get attention is whatever the establishment wants to get attention.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Since I'll be gone until Thursday, assuming Trump loses two states at most, what do you think Republicans will do next? What percentage would you give a Bull Moose like party forming just to ensure he loses?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Since I'll be gone until Thursday, assuming Trump loses two states at most, what do you think Republicans will do next? What percentage would you give a Bull Moose like party forming just to ensure he loses?

where you going?

 

[Plinko]

Every election season I am reminded how freaking terrible American media is. I watch Irish news and BBC and the difference is unbelievable.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Salon.comVerified account
‏@Salon
Thanks for nothing, Elizabeth Warren: How the Democratic rock star missed her chance, hurt the progressive agenda http://slnm.us/A2rAcrh

well then

 

[B-Dubs]

Since I'll be gone until Thursday, assuming Trump loses two states at most, what do you think Republicans will do next? What percentage would you give a Bull Moose like party forming just to ensure he loses?

It's already formed inside the GOP, what we're seeing now is the alien-style birth where it busts through the GOP's chest.

 

[Kusagari]

Warren bout to get destroyed by the Berniebros.

 

[Teggy]

Put my ballots ballot in for Hillary in MA. Now I just need to wrap up work early enough to get to the gym and back by 7pm.

I'm kind of surprised I didn't a call from either campaign leading up the primary. And the only mail I got was from Hillary, specifically on gun control. Maybe Bernie decided to write off the over 30 crowd.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This take from kevin williamson is

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432158/trump-rerunning-obamas-shallow-campaign

 

[Incognito]

o/u on 'dead heat' being uttered by Wolf tonight? i'll say 3. but cant discount possibility that polls wont be called right away even though they are obvious blowouts and wolf just not being able to contain himself.

 

[Ophelion]

Warren bout to get destroyed by the Berniebros.

Guess even saints can get thrown up against the wall when the revolution is failing...

 

[Holmes]

I don't want non Neogafferson on it like if that shitty subreddit decides to spam it.

Don't say their name, you might summon them.

 

[PBY]

This take from kevin williamson is

������������

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432158/trump-rerunning-obamas-shallow-campaign

NRO is just flailing wildly now

swing for the fences

 

[shem935]

Warren bout to get destroyed by the Berniebros.

This the moment in episode 3 where anakin says "if you're not with me then you're my enemy"?

 

[A Human Becoming]

where you going?

I'll be too salty so I'm staying away until the Republican debate.

I just learned that sodium negatively affecting (normal) blood pressure is a myth so scrap that earlier statement.

It's already formed inside the GOP, what we're seeing now is the alien-style birth where it busts through the GOP's chest.

I mean do you think it comes down to a brokered convention or actually running a third party candidate? Is that a last resort option?

 

[Teggy]

well then

There people are terrible. Warren didn't even want to run for Senate, she wanted to be head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau but the Republicans blocked her. They want to force her to run for President? And hey, maybe she thinks having the first female president (in Hillary) would be great.

 

[Retromelon]

I don't want non Neogafferson on it like if that shitty subreddit decides to spam it.

Cmon, ivy, just this once. I want to hear what they have to say. Prepare a backup chat just in case things go south, it'll be alright.

Back when i lurked, i wanted to shit talk/cheer on aarons midterm predictions so badly

 

[Incognito]

There people are terrible. Warren didn't even want to run for Senate, she wanted to be head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau but the Republicans blocked her. They want to force her to run for President? And hey, maybe she thinks having the first female president (in Hillary) would be great.

GOP was bluffing. Obama caved. let's hope that doesnt happen with SC nominee.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Turnout for Super Tuesday was already overwhelming the polls in some places in North Texas, while voters were sparse in other locations.

For the most part, though, it’s a tale of two primaries, with longer lines for Republican voters than those voting Democrat.

Republican voters had to wait at least 30 minutes in line early Tuesday morning at North Dallas High School in the West Village, where just one man worked the table for dozens of voters.

Democrats, meanwhile, were waved to the front — if there were any in line. At least once, when a worker came outside asking for Democratic voters, no one came forward.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews....place-but-turnout-sparse-in-other-spots.html/

Bodes well for Trumpinator.

 

[Cybit]

well then

It's Salon. You should be unsurprised.

 

[Ophelion]

Cmon, ivy, just this once. I want to hear what they have to say. Prepare a backup chat just in case things go south, it'll be alright.

You want to fight a zergrush of Reddit trolls? A lot of people in here are really good, but can we really play political speed chess with a dozen idiots each?

Edit: NM, I see what you mean.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Cmon, ivy, just this once. I want to hear what they have to say. Prepare a backup chat just in case things go south, it'll be alright.

Back when i lurked, i wanted to shit talk/cheer on aarons midterm predictions so badly

Maybe a fake public chat that we can enjoy from our ivory tower. Once and while we'll throw some meat down for the masses to chew on.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Maybe a fake public chat that we can enjoy from our ivory tower. Once and while we'll throw some meat down for the masses to chew on.

brilliant. How does it work?

 

[Bowdz]

Maybe a fake public chat that we can enjoy from our ivory tower. Once and while we'll throw some meat down for the masses to chew on.

Lmao, a castle fit for a queen.

 

[Teggy]

Trump said everyone tells him he has beautiful hands and this is the first time he had heard anyone say he had small hands. This fucking guy. Lies even about the smallest things.

 

[B-Dubs]

I mean do you think it comes down to a brokered convention or actually running a third party candidate? Is that a last resort option?

I really don't think they run a third-party GOP candidate. If Trump comes in second that's the complete death of the party as we know it, they can't risk losing to Trump in the general. They'll likely try and regain control through a brokered convention, if such a thing is even going to be possible, or just let Trump do his thing and try to reassert control after he loses. Trump would really have to drive them into a corner for the establishment to run a candidate of their own.

What I'm saying is they've still got options to exercise before it gets to a 3-way race.