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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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yup
Four_Chamber
Member
Not only that, the caucus format favors Bernie IMHO
Michigan is a primary- RCP has Hillary with a 20 point advantage over him. I dunno where this fantasy that Michigan is close is coming from
The margins in the South are absurd- she's up by about 1 million votes cast today!
Basileus777
Member
It's a caucus in one of his strongest states. I'm not sure it means he can win Michigan or the plains states caucuses coming up. It doesn't help him in Florida. I suppose Rubio is likely to win Puerto Rico and Hawaii, but the rest of the upcoming schedule isn't favorable to him unless Kasich drops out (which he won't).
shinra-bansho
Member
There's been a dearth of new polls, but she's been up by double digits in all of the ones done in Feb.
I think her visit to Flint, and using her celebrity to highlight the water crisis helped her there.
Well, I think everyone can agree: Tonight was a huge win for Marco Rubio. All of the doubters thought he could never win a state, but like a majestic eagle, he snatched victory in Minnesota, heroically saving himself from the embarrassment of a complete shutout and a hilarious underperformance relative to delegate thresholds.
Yes, it's fair to say that everything is coming up Rubio. Now that he's definitively established himself as a serious, viable candidate and as a winner, it's only a matter of time until he unites the field as the anti-Trump vote. Marco Rubio, the moderate, smart, reasonable, attractive, hispanic, Floridian candidate of America's Dreams, has given hope to the Republican people and therefore to America. No longer must we suffer the indignity of Donald Trump.
MARCO RUBIO will save us all.
MACRO RUBIO 2016. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing.
Yes, it's fair to say that everything is coming up Rubio. Now that he's definitively established himself as a serious, viable candidate and as a winner, it's only a matter of time until he unites the field as the anti-Trump vote. Marco Rubio, the moderate, smart, reasonable, attractive, hispanic, Floridian candidate of America's Dreams, has given hope to the Republican people and therefore to America. No longer must we suffer the indignity of Donald Trump.
MARCO RUBIO will save us all.
MACRO RUBIO 2016. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing.
RustyNails
Member
Underpants gnome theory now in action!!
Yoda
Member
Obama made the same argument against HRC, she stayed in until the June if I remember correctly.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
The problem for Rubio and Cruz is that, really, the evidence that Trump will lose a one-on-one when he has SO much momentum is not totally solid, I don't think. Some of Cruz's voters will hop to Trump to maintain the anti-establishment thing, some of Rubio's voters will jump to Trump because Cruz has been successfully branded as a dirty tricks liar. Ben Carson's voters will probably head toward Trump, and while Rubio will get most of Kasich's voters, some probably will jump to Cruz and a single-digit percent will head to Trump.
Even if the majority of the people not currently voting for Trump lose their preferred candidate, he only needs to capture maybe 10-15% of them to stay reasonably competitive.
Even if the majority of the people not currently voting for Trump lose their preferred candidate, he only needs to capture maybe 10-15% of them to stay reasonably competitive.
Fenderputty
Banned
Man, Bernie did better than expected tonight. Losing MA will kinda mute that though
And_Gignac
Member
Politico getting an editorial boner as we speak.
Officerrob
Banned
Rubio FINALLY gets a win, lol
Basileus777
Member
The problem for them is that tonight cemented that no one is dropping out until the 15th at the earliest.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
BoboBrazil
Member
Can Fox News limit the debate to 4 people so Carson can drop out please?
Bernie is done, but I'm hoping he stays in it. This dialogue needs to continue. It's a healthy debate for the party, and it doesn't hurt us too much in November, since tonight's GOP results guarantee that race will be a dogfight.
You're not going to incite the base with Hillary. She's been in politics too long, has held too many contradictory positions, and (despite being a historical candidate) is just not thrilling to much of the left. The best we can hope for is for liberals to come out and vote the responsible choice despite Clinton not being an exciting candidate.
Officerrob
Banned
NATE SILVER 10:50 PM
Sanders is not having a good night. Last week, we published demographic targets in each state. These were not predictions; instead, they were estimates, based on the racial composition of each state and other demographics, of how well a candidate would have to do to get half of pledged delegates nationwide.
Clinton is running ahead of her benchmarks by an average of 16 percentage points tonight, which is equivalent to her holding a 16-point lead over Sanders in national polls. Sanders won a few of his must-win states tonight, but not others, and the huge deficits he racked up to Clinton in Southern states will make it hard for him to make up his deficit later on.
Frank the Great
Banned
People are really calling for Sanders to drop out? Are you crazy?
He needs to stay in so he will be in a good position to assume the nomination after the indictments start to rain on Hillary.
He needs to stay in so he will be in a good position to assume the nomination after the indictments start to rain on Hillary.
User 463088
Banned
I mean...no? I was never under the impression Hillary would sweep everything. I kinda guessed on my CO, MN and OK predictions, and I don't even remember what they were.
However, her margins in the south are just ridiculous. This is why his strategy was so freaking stupid. If he had invested some time in Tennessee, I think he could have done better there. She's going to have a 200(ish) delegate lead after tonight. May be less once things settle down, but it should be over 150. He's not coming back from that, in my opinion.
Minnesota and Oklahoma are definitively the worst states. They should be sanctioned 100% of their delegates in both primaries in 2020, for having the worst voters. Seems fair.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
Sanders has run a great campaign and he's brought a lot attention to important issues, but make no mistake, Clinton sealed the nomination tonight. At this point delegate math is taking over.
GregLombardi
Member
With the rage I feel in my body, believe me when I say that Donald Trump is all that is needed to incite Democratic voters to get out and vote.
That was pretty much it. I figured he'd win that one on top of everything else he got.
When President Rubio takes over you will be the first he goes after.
#marcobotdestroy #hashtag
Basileus777
Member
He got absolutely flattened in a bunch of delegate rich states. He did not have a good night if he had any intention of winning this race.
Fenderputty
Banned
Oh no, he's done lol. I just though she was gonna sweep all but VT.
Edit: and maybe MA
Pretty much. His loss in Georgia alone is enough to cancel out all his wins.
shinra-bansho
Member
Meh. He can stay in, whatever. He's a message candidate now.
But HRC was only down by 20 pledged delegates post-Super Tuesday.
Obama was ahead by 100 delegates end of Feb, half of what she'll likely have after tonight.
She was still set for wins in delegate-rich places like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas. Sanders isn't.
She won more delegates in the later contests than he did, after he had built up his 100 delegate lead such that it shrunk to only 60. I don't think Sanders will.
So 2008 doesn't match the likely outcome this time around.
But HRC was only down by 20 pledged delegates post-Super Tuesday.
Obama was ahead by 100 delegates end of Feb, half of what she'll likely have after tonight.
She was still set for wins in delegate-rich places like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas. Sanders isn't.
She won more delegates in the later contests than he did, after he had built up his 100 delegate lead such that it shrunk to only 60. I don't think Sanders will.
So 2008 doesn't match the likely outcome this time around.
Not get absolutely crushed in large southern states by up to 60 pt margins maybe?
Box of Kittens
Banned
I'm not sure how many of these posts diablosing about Trump in the general are serious but there's a reason the Republicans are desperate not to be saddled with him.
And_Gignac
Member
He needed to do way better in Texas. The South also gave him a destructive beating.
It's not about the wins -- it's about the gaps.
Your question nearly assumes that tonight was winner takes all.
What's the objective function?
He needed to get at least 10% more in all those Southern states he's getting wrecked in. That just kills his delegate math.
Macho Madness
Member
Kasich.
Basileus777
Member
It doesn't matter. Kasich stays in until March 15th either way.
User 463088
Banned
The best night he could have had would have to easily won Mass. Hell, just winning it would have been fine.
A good night would have been bitch slapping anyone who told him to not focus on Tennessee, Virginia and Texas. He absolutely could not allow those margins to go forward. Tennessee, especially, looks like it would have been ripe for him to have lowered the margins a bit.
Officerrob
Banned
The margins in the south needed to be MUCH smaller.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
He couldn't have won any others, but losing in Texas by 35 points is not a good night.
Yoda
Member
Eh, call my cynical, but when dems don't have the feeling of some kind of "calling" or charismatic, larger than life celebrity (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama) => turnout goes to Kerry/Gore levels. The demographic edge vanishes if that's the case: old white voters are what will be overrepresented, and they always break Republican.
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