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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Officerrob said:
Carrie Dann ✔ ‎@CarrieNBCNews
Wowza re: Clinton margins with black voters tonight

Alabama : 92-6
Arkansas: 90-10
GA: 83-16
OK: 75-22
TX : 80-18
TN: 85-12
VA: 84-16
Click to expand...
Those Alabama and Arkansas numbers for Hillary are better than Obama's %s in 2008
 
F

FiggyCal

Banned
Gruco said:
Seriously, who do you think spends more on tuition, the kid going to community college, or the one going to a state flagship? Who do you think came from the wealthier family, who stands to earn more over the course of their life? Free college tuition is a regressive policy. Fortunately the US has recently been more focused on expanding progressive policies like the Pell Grant program

Where do you get the idea that high income groups are less likely to attend university?
Click to expand...

That's the argument we're going with. Just out of spite, we shouldn't help people with more income and so we should limit ourselves to community college only?
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
A Human Becoming said:
Is there a table out there showing all the campaign stops for the candidates and where they and their pacs are spending money? That would help my predictions.

Using the Five Thirty Eight model and my own judgement I expect the following:

Democrats
Alabama: Clinton
American Samoa: Clinton
Arkansas: Clinton
Colorado: Sanders (close race)
Georgia: Clinton
Massachusetts: Clinton
Minnesota: Sanders
Oklahoma: Sanders
Tennessee: Clinton
Texas: Clinton
Vermont: Sanders
Virginia: Clinton


Republicans
Alabama: Drumpf
Alaska: Drumpf (close race)
Arkansas: Cruz
Georgia: Drumpf
Massachusetts: Drumpf
Minnesota: Rubio (why not)
Oklahoma: Drumpf
Tennessee: Drumpf
Texas: Cruz
Vermont: Drumpf
Virginia: Drumpf
Click to expand...
Except for Alaska which we don't know, I did well. Switching the names for Arkansas and Oklahoma makes it perfect. I even got Rubio in Minnesota right! People saying Bernie would only win Vermont were wishful thinking. I thought I was just being optimistic.

Of course the percentages Bernie lost and won by, especially losing Massachusetts, makes his chance of winning the nomination 0%.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
I'm betting Rubio wins Puerto Rico. I'm from there and I can't see Trump winning.

Rubio is not hat popular but he's a known entity, who does not appear to be overtly racist.

Also, rumors abound that Trump wants to take the US citizenship away from Puerto Ricans.
 
K

kess

Member
Gilmore's got it

Ccg7lHBXEAAxdiN.jpg
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
We need Trump to win as many states as possible. This is no longer about keeping people in to split the votes. This is about preventing a brokered convention should he fall short of 1237.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Cerium said:
Kasich is not dropping until Ohio, and he's a real threat to win Ohio, so we need him as marginalized as possible.

Ohio is winner takes all. It's a huge deal.
Click to expand...
Even if he wins Ohio, it's not going to matter. He's not going to unseat Trump. Cruz just won Texas and AR, he's not going to dislodge Trump from his place.

Best case scenario if you want Trump to be the nominee is have Ben Carson drop out and rest of the field stay in. Despite all the lols and a dream of Trump Sweep, it's risky for him to go head to head against a narrow field. The late deciders do not break for him. He has a tendency to get into despicable stories like KKK, and is generally a firestarter. The more people stay in, the more votes they split between themselves and Trump stays winning.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Iolo said:
Hillary's up by 213 delegates in the current estimate---could this go up? The estimates only cover around 650 delegates so 400 are unallocated. (When MA was called she gained 3 delegates.) It's hard to tell at a glance because MN for example has 0 allocated, but TX has around 90 unallocated still.
Click to expand...
Google tells me:
Alabama - 17 unallocated
Arkansas - 8
Colorado - 10
Georgia - 14
Mass - 6
Minn - 77?
Oklahoma - 4
Tenn - 8
Texas - 60
Vt - 6
Va - 2

So lots of Minn unallocated, but states she won as well.
I don't think it will change much overall.
 
C

Cerium

Member
RustyNails said:
Even if he wins Ohio, it's not going to matter. He's not going to unseat Trump.
Click to expand...

That's not the point. The point is that if he takes Ohio it becomes much more likely that Trump won't be able to reach the threshold. It's not about Kasich being a threat, it's about denying Trump a huge bunch of delegates.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
RustyNails said:
Even if he wins Ohio, it's not going to matter. He's not going to unseat Trump. Cruz just won Texas and AR, he's not going to dislodge Trump from his place.
Click to expand...
No one is, there's a reason his opponents are already talking about a contested convention.
Best case scenario if you want Trump to be the nominee is have Ben Carson drop out and rest of the field stay in. Despite all the lols and a dream of Trump Sweep, it's risky for him to go head to head against a narrow field. The late deciders do not break for him. He has a tendency to get into despicable stories like KKK, and is generally a firestarter. The more people stay in, the more votes they split between themselves and Trump stays winning.
Click to expand...
If Trump wins most of the WTA states he will get a majority, a split field helps him.
 
U

UraMallas

Member
vicissitudes said:
We need Trump to win as many states as possible. This is no longer about keeping people in to split the votes. This is about preventing a brokered convention should he fall short of 1237.
Click to expand...
To me, a brokered convention is absolutely the best outcome. Trump is going to run 3rd party if he gets knocked out, you gotta believe.
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
Gruco said:
He's proposing expanding the payroll tax, which is regressive, and he's proposing free college tuition, which primarily benefits high income groups. Neither or those claims should be controversial.
Click to expand...

The ~5% payroll tax that will be compensated by a large drop in healthcare spending by employers and employees is significant enough to be called regressive? And need citations to show that free PUBLIC college tuition benefits high income groups. Can't just assume these things.
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
I hate Bernie won more than 1 state. Now that gives his donors false hope and they are going to take their belongings to pawn shops and take out title loans on their cars to donate to him.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Lawrence O Donnell just went in on Trump's bullshit. "There will be no wall. There will be no Muslim ban. It will never happen if he's elected."
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
BoboBrazil said:
I hate Bernie won more than 1 state. Now that gives his donors false hope and they are going to take their belongings to pawn shops and take out title loans on their cars to donate to him.
Click to expand...

What? If anything its the opposite given how high the average donation is for clinton's campaign.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
I can't help but notice that American Samoa is seemingly entirely absent from all of the NY Times election results and even their primary calendar. It should be there, no?
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
My back of the envelope delegate projections: Trump 262, Cruz 215, Rubio 93. Think something's wrong w/ @UpshotNYT: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...esday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html …
Click to expand...
Tonight's even more awful for Rubio than I thought. By my math, he'll end up 100+ delegates behind Cruz, 200+ behind Trump in total count.
Click to expand...
Ben Jacobs ‏@Bencjacobs
Alabama is 100% in and Rubio is only at 18.5%. He gets no statewide delegates
Click to expand...
 
D

danm999

Member
So I get back from a meeting and Marco Rubio has won a state! Marcomentum. No stopping him now. See you at the Convention. 3532222333133315554!
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
BoboBrazil said:
Bernie stans are the ones on reddit talking about how they can't pay their electricity bill or afford food because they donated their paycheck to Bernie.
Click to expand...

calm down. If they want to donate then its there choice. You must be very concerned for their well being. They will be fine.

Trump wins the most votes, states & delegates going into the convention. No way he's not given the nomination.
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
BoboBrazil said:
Bernie stans are the ones on reddit talking about how they can't pay their electricity bill or afford food because they donated their paycheck to Bernie.
Click to expand...

Do you really need me to bring up that the plural of anecdote is not data (and reddit is a huge site that is mostly bernie centered, im sure you can find any number of crazy stories for both campaigns on the internet like maybe in this very thread...)

And why call them bernie stans, why are you so worried about supporters of a candidate that is going to lose.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
vicissitudes said:
We need Trump to win as many states as possible. This is no longer about keeping people in to split the votes. This is about preventing a brokered convention should he fall short of 1237.
Click to expand...

I'm perfectly fine with a brokered convention.

If the GOP rigs the convention so Marco Rubio ends up winning, they are going to lose their base during the general.

Thanks to Trump, either way Democrats are more likely to win.
 
H

hipsterpants

Member
There was a guy in OT who apparently took out is life savings or something (like $5500) to donate to The Bern. I know it's personal choice and all but stuff like that is seriously concerning.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Results Show Why Trump Can Lose, and Why He Probably Won’t
The night could not have gone much worse for Marco Rubio, perhaps the only Republican with a good chance to beat Mr. Trump in a one-on-one contest. He failed to win Virginia, his best prospect of a primary victory. He has won in Minnesota, but it will be hard for him to claim any great strength with one caucus win in what was already poised to be his best state.

Even worse for Mr. Rubio was the strength of his opponents. Ted Cruz won Texas and neighboring Oklahoma, giving him more wins than anyone else in the race except Mr. Trump. Mr. Cruz did not finish in a distant third elsewhere in the South, as seemed possible soon after South Carolina.

Between his own failings and Mr. Cruz’s strength, Mr. Rubio seems likely to be in a distant third place in the delegate count after tonight. Mr. Rubio is also in danger of missing crucial delegate thresholds in Texas, Vermont, Alabama and perhaps Tennessee.

Making matters worse for Mr. Rubio is that John Kasich, who has very little support nationwide, nonetheless managed to defeat him in Vermont and might still do so in Massachusetts. Mr. Kasich won 9 percent of the vote in Virginia, probably throwing the state to Mr. Trump. His support was strongest in places like Northern Virginia, where Mr. Rubio fared best.
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Rubio really should drop out and start pumping up Kasich if he wanted the best for the GOP, but I don't think that will happen.

Anything about Illinois, Arizona, and Missouri that should make them especially strong or weak states for any candidate?
 
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