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[Plinko]

LMAO

Except Crystal Pepsi was actually good.

 

[royalan]

Cornel West was supposed to be part of Bernie's out reach to AA communities, along with Killer Mike. Dr. West has basically made a career these last 8 years of attacking President Obama every chance he gets. He has called him a Rockefeller Republican in black face once. So, Bernie sent a surrogate who has been critical of the guy with 90%+ approval rating in the AA community. Hell, I wouldn't send him into a predominately white community either because, by and large, Democrats love President Obama.

After SC, he literally threw every AA politician who supported Hillary under the bus. They all are "neo-liberals" now.

http://www.salon.com/2016/02/29/cor...ers_suffers_resounding_south_carolina_defeat/

Dude is a mess, especialtly stumping for you or something.

THANK YOU

Because it's getting borderline offensive that people still claim to not understand why Sanders is getting no love from the black community.

I would like to say that Bernie was good at only making token moves, but he wasn't even good at that.

And good I hope Hillary roasts him for running from the black vote on Sunday.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

@BarackObama and @VP have endorsed Patrick Murphy in Florida and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Big blows to Grayson and Sittenfeld.

Some serious party deciding in that FL senate race.

 

[FiggyCal]

We can't have leftists running for office. We have to fight for slow, gradual progress

 

[fantomena]

From FB feed.

 

[2 Slice Toaster]

THANK YOU

Because it's getting borderline offensive that people still claim to not understand why Sanders is getting no love from the black community.

I would like to say that Bernie was good at only making token moves, but he wasn't even good at that.

And good I hope Hillary roasts him for running from the black vote on Sunday.

So are you more pissed off at his token moves, or that he didn't make enough token moves.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Let's dispel with this fiction that Sanders overperformed relative to his polling.

or something

He did in Massachusetts and Oklahoma. Clinton over performed everywhere else.

We can't have leftists running for office. We have to fight for slow, gradual progress

So gradual it will happen in 30 years!

 

[Kusagari]

@BarackObama and @VP have endorsed Patrick Murphy in Florida and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Big blows to Grayson and Sittenfeld.

Some serious party deciding in that FL senate race.

Grayson would be a disaster once the FL GOP starts airing ads with all the fuckups he made.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

@BarackObama and @VP have endorsed Patrick Murphy in Florida and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Big blows to Grayson and Sittenfeld.

Some serious party deciding in that FL senate race.

Good.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

And finally caught up the thread.. And oh man Rubio is such a damn joke. I can't believe he didn't make the minimum in Texas.

And Minnesota.. Lol

 

[Suikoguy]

Grayson would be a disaster once the FL GOP starts airing ads with all the fuckups he made.

Yeah, I can sorta see why they did not endorse him.

Sittenfeld on the other hand is a newbie with only City Council experience. I really don't know much about his policy plans and proposals other than what's on his website: http://www.pgsittenfeld.com/content/issues

 

[Bowdz]

@BarackObama and @VP have endorsed Patrick Murphy in Florida and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Big blows to Grayson and Sittenfeld.

Some serious party deciding in that FL senate race.

Good shit Barry-O. Grayson is an asshole.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Let's dispel with this fiction that Sanders overperformed relative to his polling.

or something

Err he did over-perform relative to his polling (he's at +9 over polling, average of +1). Clinton just over performed more (she's at +44 net, average of +5). . Sanders is doing badly enough that you don't have to make up stupid stuff in support of Hillary.

 

[shinra-bansho]

If the leftist in question was a millionaire hedge fund manager trading on his political role and bloviating misogynistic insults with a frankly gross personal life... then I think I'd take gradual progress any day.

 

[royalan]

So are you more pissed off at his token moves, or that he didn't make enough token moves.

I'm pissed that he didn't make a genuine effort to court the black vote, period. And I'm pissed that people apparently thought black folk would be too stupid to notice that. And yet I have to explain to all my irl non-black friends who mean well why black people just aren't flocking to Bernie, because to them it's so obvious he has our best interest at heat. Really? He does?

And then you have the "progressives" who are openly condemning black people for being stupid, self-destructive, and ruining things "for the rest of us."

Ugh, it just makes me want to scream these last few days.

But instead I just go get dick.

 

[theprodigy]

Err he did over-perform relative to his polling (he's at +9 over polling, average of +1). Clinton just over performed more (she's at +44 net, average of +5). . Sanders is doing badly enough that you don't have to make up stupid stuff in support of Hillary.

Average +1 is nothing, especially when factoring in undecideds! (see: Clinton also "overperforming")

 

[Veritigo_X]

I'm noticing a few people on Twitter calling for all candidates to stay in to further split the delegates and prevent Trump from getting 1237. I realllly hope this is the strategy the GOP continues. Seeing a brokered convention would totally be worth the money I lose on PredictIt.

 

[Macho Madness]

eBay Huckster, Trump did not win Texas. I need an avatar.

 

[gcubed]

people arent mad that Obama supported someone other than Grayson are they? Grayson is a piece of shit.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I don't really get this meme, but it's everywhere, and it's making me wish Donald Trump would have some trouble with getting KKK support one more time so that I can say "Damn Donald! Back at it again with the white Klan."

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Since I woke up early and was unable to fall back asleep I'll go over how everyone else did.

Cruz

Thanks for pulling all this together! Trump was the only candidate to actually underperform expectations, doing around 1.5 points worse than Sanders. Guess its some combination of the Republican attacks making an impact and his generally poor organizational support.

 

[GregLombardi]

Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.

 

[royalan]

Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.

CNN does both in their actual broadcasts.

Like it or not, superdelegates are a part of the democratic process. Bernie just isn't winning enough to get them to break from Hillary. But, even without them, she still has a near-insurmountable lead at this point.

 

[gcubed]

Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.

i agree that its easier to split them out, but the only time what they are would matter is if Bernie was making any kinds of inroads into making this a race. Since Clinton will continue as the overall leader and continue winning the most delegates, superdelegates aren't going to change.

She's up by almost 200 delegates, what was the only realistic path for Bernie? If she was only up by under 50?

 

[Jarmel]

Is there any poll information for Kentucky?

 

[CCS]

i agree that its easier to split them out, but the only time what they are would matter is if Bernie was making any kinds of inroads into making this a race. Since Clinton will continue as the overall leader and continue winning the most delegates, superdelegates aren't going to change.

She's up by almost 200 delegates, what was the only realistic path for Bernie? If she was only up by under 50?

You could make a case for a path existing if she led by less than 100, but any more and there's no real option.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Err he did over-perform relative to his polling (he's at +9 over polling, average of +1). Clinton just over performed more (she's at +44 net, average of +5). . Sanders is doing badly enough that you don't have to make up stupid stuff in support of Hillary.

Average +1 is nothing, especially when factoring in undecideds! (see: Clinton also "overperforming")

Thanks for pulling all this together! Drumpf was the only candidate to actually underperform expectations, doing around 1.5 points worse than Sanders. Guess its some combination of the Republican attacks making an impact and his generally poor organizational support.

Averages don't mean anything. Some of these differences could be just bad polling, possibly in Oklahoma. Any difference +/- 3 is not significant IMO.

Prodigy is right too, there were still quite a few undecideds. They appear to mainly be the reason why Bernie over performed in Massachusetts and Oklahoma. The polling only had 94% of Massachusetts votes between Hillary and Bernie and 88% in Oklahoma.

 

[Farmboy]

Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.

I agree. The super delegates are unbound, and so despite their endorsements can still vote for Bernie at the convention. I also believe that most would do exactly that, if Bernie would somehow win the regular delegate count. Most super delegates won't want to be seen overturning the will of the people. (At the 2008 convention, most super delegates that had endorsed Hillary cast their votes for Obama).

The point is moot, of course, because Hillary is ahead in the regular delegate count and will win it handily. Still, I think reporting the delegate count including super delegates actually does her a disservice (not to mention invoking backroom dealings that might piss off some of the less informated Bernie supporters).

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.

splitting super delegates would be more misleading because the super delegates would never be split even.

Besides, as people above have said they have counts with and without them.

 

[NeoXChaos]

It got reported during the Obama-Clinton 08 race.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Averages don't mean anything. Some of these differences could be just bad polling, possibly in Oklahoma. Any difference +/- 3 is pretty insignificant too.

Prodigy is right too, there were still quite a few undecideds.

Any difference of +/-3 on a single poll is insignificant. If you consistently outperform multiple polls by +3 or underperform by -3 that does actually suggest a difference to polling.

splitting super delegates would be more misleading because the super delegates would never be split even.

Besides, as people above have said they have counts with and without them.

He's not suggesting splitting supers evently, he's suggesting displaying them separately to bound delegates.

 

[Gotchaye]

CNN does both in their actual broadcasts.

Like it or not, superdelegates are a part of the democratic process. Bernie just isn't winning enough to get them to break from Hillary. But, even without them, she still has a near-insurmountable lead at this point.

Treating superdelegates like regular delegates is weird just because they're not pledged. I have a hard time seeing the Democrats actually using the superdelegates to take the nomination from Sanders given that he wins the most ordinary delegates (and perhaps also the popular vote). You seem to be talking like they can be expected to go to Sanders if he wins enough, but that's a reason not to include them in counts right now. The inclusion of superdelegates in delegate tallies has the effect of portraying Clinton as much farther ahead than she actually is when really a lot of them will just track expected outcomes with ordinary delegates. Unless what's being communicated is that the party is prepared to do what I think most people would see as stealing the nomination from Sanders if necessary.

 

[thepotatoman]

It looks like Trump is currently on track to a majority of the delegates with no brokered convention possible.

I could see him fall below that 100% mark if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, but it's hard to imagine anyone else doing well enough to get above 100% and be on track to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

 

[CCS]

On the Dem side, the 538 tracker has it at:

Hillary - 113%
Sander - 81%

 

[Y2Kev]

It looks like Trump is currently on track to a majority of the delegates with no brokered convention possible.

I could see him fall below that 100% mark if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, but it's hard to imagine anyone else doing well enough to get above 100% and be on track to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

No, now it's definitely clear that trump wins or no one does. Rubio failing last night cemented that. Cheebo cry.

 

[RustyNails]

Anyone have numbers on California GOP primary polling? Trump Country?

 

[Plinko]

It looks like Trump is currently on track to a majority of the delegates with no brokered convention possible.

I could see him fall below that 100% mark if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, but it's hard to imagine anyone else doing well enough to get above 100% and be on track to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

Trump needs either Florida or Ohio or there almost assuredly will be a contested convention.

Tomorrow night's debate is going to be colossal. You know, if Trump actually took the time to come up with thoughtful responses to debate questions, this thing would be over already. Rubio was right--he repeats himself often and has no specifics.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Averages don't mean anything. Some of these differences could be just bad polling, possibly in Oklahoma. Any difference +/- 3 is not significant IMO..

Any difference of +/-3 on a single poll is insignificant. If you consistently outperform multiple polls by +3 or underperform by -3 that does actually suggest a difference to polling.

I agree with Elaugaufein here. Across all the states we're talking about 30+ polls. That's enough to smooth out any bad individual polls unless you think there's a reason why one particular candidate would be disadvantaged. These aren't huge swings but if, for instance, Trump's infrastructure is unusually weak that could be huge in the national election.

 

[Gotchaye]

Trump needs either Florida or Ohio or there almost assuredly will be a contested convention.

Tomorrow night's debate is going to be colossal. You know, if Trump actually took the time to come up with thoughtful responses to debate questions, this thing would be over already. Rubio was right--he repeats himself acton and has no specifics.

Trump prepares intensely for debate -> gives detailed policy answers and clear explanations of Cruz's lies and Rubio's record on amnesty -> gets 5% of the vote in Florida and loses the primary.

Trump spends his time retweeting white supremacists before debate -> refuses to let Rubio and Cruz talk while calling them names -> dominates Florida and coasts to victory in November.

 

[Plinko]

Trump prepares intensely for debate -> gives detailed policy answers and clear explanations of Cruz's lies and Rubio's record on amnesty -> gets 5% of the vote in Florida and loses the primary.

Trump spends his time retweeting white supremacists before debate -> refuses to let Rubio and Cruz talk while calling them names -> dominates Florida and coasts to victory in November.

After yesterday, though, I think it is clear the KKK stuff hurt him.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Is there any poll information for Kentucky?

The Huffpo pollster has one poll of Republicans from Western Kentucky U. They aren't even on the Nate Silver's pollster tracker so it may be low quality. Also, its a caucus so polling data is even more unreliable. So this tells you more than nothing, but maybe not much:

Trump: 35
Rubio: 22
Cruz: 15

http://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2016/02/trump-leads-competitors-by-double.html?spref=tw

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Uhh, Missouri and Illinois are important states too.

Not just Florida and Ohio.

 

[royalan]

Treating superdelegates like regular delegates is weird just because they're not pledged. I have a hard time seeing the Democrats actually using the superdelegates to take the nomination from Sanders given that he wins the most ordinary delegates (and perhaps also the popular vote). You seem to be talking like they can be expected to go to Sanders if he wins enough, but that's a reason not to include them in counts right now. The inclusion of superdelegates in delegate tallies has the effect of portraying Clinton as much farther ahead than she actually is when really a lot of them will just track expected outcomes with ordinary delegates. Unless what's being communicated is that the party is prepared to do what I think most people would see as stealing the nomination from Sanders if necessary.

I mostly agree with you, I just don't think it matters much since Hillary is winning either way. Sure, not counting them makes the lead look smaller, but even then her lead is almost insurmountable regardless.

I remember Obama being treated as the assumptive nominee after Super Tuesday in 08. And Hillary just walked away with more than twice the delegates he did.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Any difference of +/-3 on a single poll is insignificant. If you consistently outperform multiple polls by +3 or underperform by -3 that does actually suggest a difference to polling.

I completely mispoke. I should have said anything less than +/-3 doesn't make much of a difference in most instances. A lot states for Democrats are completely proportional. When you're short of the threshold like Ruboto it's important.

I agree with Elaugaufein here. Across all the states we're talking about 30+ polls. That's enough to smooth out any bad individual polls unless you think there's a reason why one particular candidate would be disadvantaged. These aren't huge swings but if, for instance, Drumpf's infrastructure is unusually weak that could be huge in the national election.

Thing is the general election is winner-take-all. How candidates utilize their resources will be different. In some cases they'll even approach demographics differently.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Adam... Don't let your mom see this.

 

[XenodudeX]

Trump needs either Florida or Ohio or there almost assuredly will be a contested convention.

Tomorrow night's debate is going to be colossal. You know, if Trump actually took the time to come up with thoughtful responses to debate questions, this thing would be over already. Rubio was right--he repeats himself often and has no specifics.

Yrump needs to use some of that fuck you money he supposedly has to hire a fucking debate prep team and a PR team. Everytime this dude opens his mouth he sounds like hammered shit. That might fly in the primaries, but it isn't going to fly in the general if he gets the nomination..

 

[NeoXChaos]

https://www.change.org/p/massachuse...john-f-mitchell-violation-of-ma-election-laws

 

[PBY]

So

Now that the hangover sets in - how do we feel about yesterday? Just ran through the 538 pod... seems like they don't looooooove Trump?

 

[CCS]

https://www.change.org/p/massachuse...john-f-mitchell-violation-of-ma-election-laws

Damn, that's a lot of really really really salty Bernie supporters.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Damn, that's a lot of really really really salty Bernie supporters.

Arrest is overboard, but if he broke the law he should be fined like everyone else.