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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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R

royalan

Member
adam387 said:
Cornel West was supposed to be part of Bernie's out reach to AA communities, along with Killer Mike. Dr. West has basically made a career these last 8 years of attacking President Obama every chance he gets. He has called him a Rockefeller Republican in black face once. So, Bernie sent a surrogate who has been critical of the guy with 90%+ approval rating in the AA community. Hell, I wouldn't send him into a predominately white community either because, by and large, Democrats love President Obama.

After SC, he literally threw every AA politician who supported Hillary under the bus. They all are "neo-liberals" now.

http://www.salon.com/2016/02/29/cor...ers_suffers_resounding_south_carolina_defeat/

Dude is a mess, especialtly stumping for you or something.
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THANK YOU

Because it's getting borderline offensive that people still claim to not understand why Sanders is getting no love from the black community.

I would like to say that Bernie was good at only making token moves, but he wasn't even good at that.

And good I hope Hillary roasts him for running from the black vote on Sunday.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
@BarackObama and @VP have endorsed Patrick Murphy in Florida and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Big blows to Grayson and Sittenfeld.

Some serious party deciding in that FL senate race.
 
F

fantomena

Member
From FB feed.

9fa39fd3fcafa59bb0b38411cfcac794.gif
 
2

2 Slice Toaster

Member
royalan said:
THANK YOU

Because it's getting borderline offensive that people still claim to not understand why Sanders is getting no love from the black community.

I would like to say that Bernie was good at only making token moves, but he wasn't even good at that.

And good I hope Hillary roasts him for running from the black vote on Sunday.
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So are you more pissed off at his token moves, or that he didn't make enough token moves.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Kusagari said:
Grayson would be a disaster once the FL GOP starts airing ads with all the fuckups he made.
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Yeah, I can sorta see why they did not endorse him.

Sittenfeld on the other hand is a newbie with only City Council experience. I really don't know much about his policy plans and proposals other than what's on his website: http://www.pgsittenfeld.com/content/issues
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
theprodigy said:
Let's dispel with this fiction that Sanders overperformed relative to his polling.

or something
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Err he did over-perform relative to his polling (he's at +9 over polling, average of +1). Clinton just over performed more (she's at +44 net, average of +5). . Sanders is doing badly enough that you don't have to make up stupid stuff in support of Hillary.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
If the leftist in question was a millionaire hedge fund manager trading on his political role and bloviating misogynistic insults with a frankly gross personal life... then I think I'd take gradual progress any day.
 
R

royalan

Member
2 Slice Toaster said:
So are you more pissed off at his token moves, or that he didn't make enough token moves.
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I'm pissed that he didn't make a genuine effort to court the black vote, period. And I'm pissed that people apparently thought black folk would be too stupid to notice that. And yet I have to explain to all my irl non-black friends who mean well why black people just aren't flocking to Bernie, because to them it's so obvious he has our best interest at heat. Really? He does?

And then you have the "progressives" who are openly condemning black people for being stupid, self-destructive, and ruining things "for the rest of us."

Ugh, it just makes me want to scream these last few days.

But instead I just go get dick.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Err he did over-perform relative to his polling (he's at +9 over polling, average of +1). Clinton just over performed more (she's at +44 net, average of +5). . Sanders is doing badly enough that you don't have to make up stupid stuff in support of Hillary.
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Average +1 is nothing, especially when factoring in undecideds! (see: Clinton also "overperforming")
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
I'm noticing a few people on Twitter calling for all candidates to stay in to further split the delegates and prevent Trump from getting 1237. I realllly hope this is the strategy the GOP continues. Seeing a brokered convention would totally be worth the money I lose on PredictIt.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
I don't really get this meme, but it's everywhere, and it's making me wish Donald Trump would have some trouble with getting KKK support one more time so that I can say "Damn Donald! Back at it again with the white Klan."
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Since I woke up early and was unable to fall back asleep I'll go over how everyone else did.

Cruz
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Thanks for pulling all this together! Trump was the only candidate to actually underperform expectations, doing around 1.5 points worse than Sanders. Guess its some combination of the Republican attacks making an impact and his generally poor organizational support.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.
 
R

royalan

Member
GregLombardi said:
Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.
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CNN does both in their actual broadcasts.

Like it or not, superdelegates are a part of the democratic process. Bernie just isn't winning enough to get them to break from Hillary. But, even without them, she still has a near-insurmountable lead at this point.
 
G

gcubed

Member
GregLombardi said:
Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.
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i agree that its easier to split them out, but the only time what they are would matter is if Bernie was making any kinds of inroads into making this a race. Since Clinton will continue as the overall leader and continue winning the most delegates, superdelegates aren't going to change.

She's up by almost 200 delegates, what was the only realistic path for Bernie? If she was only up by under 50?
 
C

CCS

Banned
gcubed said:
i agree that its easier to split them out, but the only time what they are would matter is if Bernie was making any kinds of inroads into making this a race. Since Clinton will continue as the overall leader and continue winning the most delegates, superdelegates aren't going to change.

She's up by almost 200 delegates, what was the only realistic path for Bernie? If she was only up by under 50?
Click to expand...

You could make a case for a path existing if she led by less than 100, but any more and there's no real option.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Elaugaufein said:
Err he did over-perform relative to his polling (he's at +9 over polling, average of +1). Clinton just over performed more (she's at +44 net, average of +5). . Sanders is doing badly enough that you don't have to make up stupid stuff in support of Hillary.
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theprodigy said:
Average +1 is nothing, especially when factoring in undecideds! (see: Clinton also "overperforming")
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Roland_Gunner said:
Thanks for pulling all this together! Drumpf was the only candidate to actually underperform expectations, doing around 1.5 points worse than Sanders. Guess its some combination of the Republican attacks making an impact and his generally poor organizational support.
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Averages don't mean anything. Some of these differences could be just bad polling, possibly in Oklahoma. Any difference +/- 3 is not significant IMO.

Prodigy is right too, there were still quite a few undecideds. They appear to mainly be the reason why Bernie over performed in Massachusetts and Oklahoma. The polling only had 94% of Massachusetts votes between Hillary and Bernie and 88% in Oklahoma.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
GregLombardi said:
Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.
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I agree. The super delegates are unbound, and so despite their endorsements can still vote for Bernie at the convention. I also believe that most would do exactly that, if Bernie would somehow win the regular delegate count. Most super delegates won't want to be seen overturning the will of the people. (At the 2008 convention, most super delegates that had endorsed Hillary cast their votes for Obama).

The point is moot, of course, because Hillary is ahead in the regular delegate count and will win it handily. Still, I think reporting the delegate count including super delegates actually does her a disservice (not to mention invoking backroom dealings that might piss off some of the less informated Bernie supporters).
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
GregLombardi said:
Im a Clinton supporter but Im not a huge fan of including superdelegates in delegate counts like cnn does. At least split them out, anything else is misleading IMHO.
Click to expand...

splitting super delegates would be more misleading because the super delegates would never be split even.

Besides, as people above have said they have counts with and without them.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Averages don't mean anything. Some of these differences could be just bad polling, possibly in Oklahoma. Any difference +/- 3 is pretty insignificant too.

Prodigy is right too, there were still quite a few undecideds.
Click to expand...

Any difference of +/-3 on a single poll is insignificant. If you consistently outperform multiple polls by +3 or underperform by -3 that does actually suggest a difference to polling.

TheLostBigBoss said:
splitting super delegates would be more misleading because the super delegates would never be split even.

Besides, as people above have said they have counts with and without them.
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He's not suggesting splitting supers evently, he's suggesting displaying them separately to bound delegates.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
royalan said:
CNN does both in their actual broadcasts.

Like it or not, superdelegates are a part of the democratic process. Bernie just isn't winning enough to get them to break from Hillary. But, even without them, she still has a near-insurmountable lead at this point.
Click to expand...

Treating superdelegates like regular delegates is weird just because they're not pledged. I have a hard time seeing the Democrats actually using the superdelegates to take the nomination from Sanders given that he wins the most ordinary delegates (and perhaps also the popular vote). You seem to be talking like they can be expected to go to Sanders if he wins enough, but that's a reason not to include them in counts right now. The inclusion of superdelegates in delegate tallies has the effect of portraying Clinton as much farther ahead than she actually is when really a lot of them will just track expected outcomes with ordinary delegates. Unless what's being communicated is that the party is prepared to do what I think most people would see as stealing the nomination from Sanders if necessary.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
43XTWQo.png


It looks like Trump is currently on track to a majority of the delegates with no brokered convention possible.

I could see him fall below that 100% mark if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, but it's hard to imagine anyone else doing well enough to get above 100% and be on track to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
thepotatoman said:
43XTWQo.png


It looks like Trump is currently on track to a majority of the delegates with no brokered convention possible.

I could see him fall below that 100% mark if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, but it's hard to imagine anyone else doing well enough to get above 100% and be on track to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
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No, now it's definitely clear that trump wins or no one does. Rubio failing last night cemented that. Cheebo cry.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
thepotatoman said:
43XTWQo.png


It looks like Trump is currently on track to a majority of the delegates with no brokered convention possible.

I could see him fall below that 100% mark if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, but it's hard to imagine anyone else doing well enough to get above 100% and be on track to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
Click to expand...

Trump needs either Florida or Ohio or there almost assuredly will be a contested convention.

Tomorrow night's debate is going to be colossal. You know, if Trump actually took the time to come up with thoughtful responses to debate questions, this thing would be over already. Rubio was right--he repeats himself often and has no specifics.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Averages don't mean anything. Some of these differences could be just bad polling, possibly in Oklahoma. Any difference +/- 3 is not significant IMO..
Click to expand...

Elaugaufein said:
Any difference of +/-3 on a single poll is insignificant. If you consistently outperform multiple polls by +3 or underperform by -3 that does actually suggest a difference to polling.
Click to expand...

I agree with Elaugaufein here. Across all the states we're talking about 30+ polls. That's enough to smooth out any bad individual polls unless you think there's a reason why one particular candidate would be disadvantaged. These aren't huge swings but if, for instance, Trump's infrastructure is unusually weak that could be huge in the national election.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
Plinko said:
Trump needs either Florida or Ohio or there almost assuredly will be a contested convention.

Tomorrow night's debate is going to be colossal. You know, if Trump actually took the time to come up with thoughtful responses to debate questions, this thing would be over already. Rubio was right--he repeats himself acton and has no specifics.
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Trump prepares intensely for debate -> gives detailed policy answers and clear explanations of Cruz's lies and Rubio's record on amnesty -> gets 5% of the vote in Florida and loses the primary.

Trump spends his time retweeting white supremacists before debate -> refuses to let Rubio and Cruz talk while calling them names -> dominates Florida and coasts to victory in November.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Gotchaye said:
Trump prepares intensely for debate -> gives detailed policy answers and clear explanations of Cruz's lies and Rubio's record on amnesty -> gets 5% of the vote in Florida and loses the primary.

Trump spends his time retweeting white supremacists before debate -> refuses to let Rubio and Cruz talk while calling them names -> dominates Florida and coasts to victory in November.
Click to expand...

After yesterday, though, I think it is clear the KKK stuff hurt him.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
R

royalan

Member
Gotchaye said:
Treating superdelegates like regular delegates is weird just because they're not pledged. I have a hard time seeing the Democrats actually using the superdelegates to take the nomination from Sanders given that he wins the most ordinary delegates (and perhaps also the popular vote). You seem to be talking like they can be expected to go to Sanders if he wins enough, but that's a reason not to include them in counts right now. The inclusion of superdelegates in delegate tallies has the effect of portraying Clinton as much farther ahead than she actually is when really a lot of them will just track expected outcomes with ordinary delegates. Unless what's being communicated is that the party is prepared to do what I think most people would see as stealing the nomination from Sanders if necessary.
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I mostly agree with you, I just don't think it matters much since Hillary is winning either way. Sure, not counting them makes the lead look smaller, but even then her lead is almost insurmountable regardless.

I remember Obama being treated as the assumptive nominee after Super Tuesday in 08. And Hillary just walked away with more than twice the delegates he did.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Elaugaufein said:
Any difference of +/-3 on a single poll is insignificant. If you consistently outperform multiple polls by +3 or underperform by -3 that does actually suggest a difference to polling.
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I completely mispoke. I should have said anything less than +/-3 doesn't make much of a difference in most instances. A lot states for Democrats are completely proportional. When you're short of the threshold like Ruboto it's important.
Roland_Gunner said:
I agree with Elaugaufein here. Across all the states we're talking about 30+ polls. That's enough to smooth out any bad individual polls unless you think there's a reason why one particular candidate would be disadvantaged. These aren't huge swings but if, for instance, Drumpf's infrastructure is unusually weak that could be huge in the national election.
Click to expand...
Thing is the general election is winner-take-all. How candidates utilize their resources will be different. In some cases they'll even approach demographics differently.
 
X

XenodudeX

Junior Member
Plinko said:
Trump needs either Florida or Ohio or there almost assuredly will be a contested convention.

Tomorrow night's debate is going to be colossal. You know, if Trump actually took the time to come up with thoughtful responses to debate questions, this thing would be over already. Rubio was right--he repeats himself often and has no specifics.
Click to expand...

Yrump needs to use some of that fuck you money he supposedly has to hire a fucking debate prep team and a PR team. Everytime this dude opens his mouth he sounds like hammered shit. That might fly in the primaries, but it isn't going to fly in the general if he gets the nomination..
 
P

PBY

Banned
So

Now that the hangover sets in - how do we feel about yesterday? Just ran through the 538 pod... seems like they don't looooooove Trump?
 
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