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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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R

RustyNails

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Sabato evaluated the damage a Trump nominee would have on downticket races.

He would move IL, CO and WI to Likely D, NH, PA, FL and NV to Lean D, OH to Tossup, NC, IN, and MO to Lean R and IA (!) to Likely R.

That would mean Dem-favored seats would put them at a Senate majority already with the possibility of winning 57 seats (I believe Arizona is already Lean or Likely R).
Click to expand...
How much does Trump have to lose in order to win House?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
My mom doesn't have the temperament to be governor.

Someone pisses her off she'll call them a "Fuck head."

One time, someone cut her off, she stopped the car in the middle of the road, got out of the car and asked the woman if she was "Stupid or sorry, because it has to be one of those."
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
RustyNails said:
How much does Trump have to lose in order to win House?
Click to expand...
Depends on how closely the House vote would track to the presidential race - Democrats would need at least a 7-point edge on the House generic ballot just to make majority control a tossup, and I could see Congressional Republicans running ahead of him. Maybe like ten points?
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
How could he not see how all that people in this party respond to now is power moves.

He should have either endorsed someone or threatened a third party run if he gets the nomination.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Sabato evaluated the damage a Trump nominee would have on downticket races.

He would move IL, CO and WI to Likely D, NH, PA, FL and NV to Lean D, OH to Tossup, NC, IN, and MO to Lean R and IA (!) to Likely R.

That would mean Dem-favored seats would put them at a Senate majority already with the possibility of winning 57 seats (I believe Arizona is already Lean or Likely R).
Click to expand...

If Dems get 57 seats in the senate then I hope Clinton nominates the most liberal 35-year old moonbat judge they can find to replace Scalia. Reap what you sow Turtle
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Its super frustrating to see how incapable the Republican party is of taking down this charlatan. You're right its better than nothing but a two party system can't survive if half of it is being held hostage by a demagogue.
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How I see it that if this is partially successful at rallying the troops to fight against Trump then it damages Trump down the road in varies of ways. The GOP successfully steals the race, the Trump supporters stages a rebellion and won't vote. Cruz and Rubio already has there soul snatched, Goddess-Queen will just need to dispose of the body. If The Donald survives the assassinations then the anti-Trump force may or may vote for Trump if Romney is successful at what he did, but Trump won't come out unscathed. Regardless the GOP would have to adapt to the current environment because regardless of the outcome of the Grand Ol' Civil War that Republicans would be damaged. I don't see this as a bad thing.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
I think best possible scenario regarding the house is to win as many seats as humanly possible during 2016

minimize the damage in 2018

hope that in 2020 it is within realistic striking distance to win back.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Yeah. Some people I think are misunderstanding what the speech was. He's trying to get more Republicans to turnout and vote against him. Not trying to turn Trump supporters against Trump. That's far gone.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The man statesman for one of the two American political parties literally just gave a speech telling people to orchestrate a brokered convention so that they can steal the nomination from the person their voters want.

This literally just happened.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
Aaron can correct me on this, but I'm pretty sure the margin needs to be 7 or more.

e: and he beat me to it! :argh:
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Well at least thanks to added safe seats in FL and VA it might not be as big of a haul. I believe if we had those seats in 2012 it would have saved us half a point (so we'd need to win by like 6.6% or something)

I don't think we'd have to worry about any Dem-held seats if Trump were the nominee, except FL-2 which is long gone (like mid-30s Obama seat) and NE-2, although Ashford has no real competition.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
There will be a lot of early vote in key states, most of it will probably heavily favor Trump. They need to go all out now because they can't wait until the 15th to actually beat him.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
I think best possible scenario regarding the house is to win as many seats as humanly possible during 2016

minimize the damage in 2018

hope that in 2020 it is within realistic striking distance to win back.
Click to expand...
Agree, and Goal #2 is rack-up wins in the Senate as insulation for the GOP's rebound in 2018. They have a really friendly map that year, so we need all the breathing room we can get.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The man statesman for one of the two Republican parties literally just gave a speech telling people to orchestrate a brokered convention so that they can steal the nomination from the person their voters want.

This literally just happened.
Click to expand...

Who would they give it to though? I mean, it'd have to be someone who isn't in the race now, surely?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
2020 is the same map and lines as 2016. If we can't win it in 2016 with trump then no chance with much more competent nominee in 2020 unless Cruz is it.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
NeoXChaos said:
2020 is the same map and lines as 2016. If we can't win it in 2016 with trump then no chance with much more competent nominee in 2020 unless Cruz is it.
Click to expand...

If Trump's the nominee this year, Cruz will have a very strong case to make to the lunatic fringe "See, I told you we need a REAL conservative, this time we'll win!"

We can only hope.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Question: Is there any legal way I, as a dirty Yurpean, can donate to senate races and/or Hillary's campaign?

I suppose I could do it "through" one of you guys, but is that legal?
 
M

Makai

Member
Farmboy said:
Question: Is there any legal way I, as a dirty Yurpean, can donate to senate races and/or Hillary's campaign?

I suppose I could do it "through" one of you guys, but is that legal?
Click to expand...
Donate to her Super PAC.

Actually I'm not even sure if that's allowed.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Bowdz said:
If Trump's the nominee this year, Cruz will have a very strong case to make to the lunatic fringe "See, I told you we need a REAL conservative, this time we'll win!"

We can only hope.
Click to expand...

What actually stops Paul Ryan from a 2020 run?

I actually think he'd make a great candidate.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Farmboy said:
Question: Is there any legal way I, as a dirty Yurpean, can donate to senate races and/or Hillary's campaign?

I suppose I could do it "through" one of you guys, but is that legal?
Click to expand...

safest way would just be to buy stock in the prison industrial complex
 
G

Gruco

Banned
I stopped reading dkos pretty early in Obama's presidency. I couldn't handle the cesspool of sellout accusations. I've been catching up on kos's commentary for this election, and man, I seriously love him. He's a great analyst but has no pretense about coming at everything from a bare-knuckled "democrats first" perspective.

Some recent highlights:

kos said:
Sanders supporters need to stop with that “South doesn’t count” argument. Seriously. Stop it. For starters, Southern Democrats deserve our respect and admiration for fighting the good fight deep in enemy territory. They have it harder than blue state Dems, by a longshot. They also donate, make calls, and help out in myriad ways. And—and this might be the most important point—Southern Democrats are disproportionately people of color. So by arguing that they don’t matter, you are arguing that a critical component of our party’s base doesn’t matter. So given Sanders’ existing difficulties with nonwhite Democrats, there’s no reason to exacerbate those problems. Really, don’t go there. You just come off as a dick.
Click to expand...

kos said:
Regardless what side of the primary lines you’re in, If you aren’t fighting for a Democratic victory this November, then fuck you go away. This isn’t your place.
Click to expand...

kos said:
Debbie Wasserman Schultz was irrelevant to the ultimate outcome of this primary contest. To think she kneecaped Sanders would assume that she’s competent at something.
Click to expand...

kos said:
Also, it’s hard to spark a revolution when you are arguing that your own party’s president has fucked shit all up. Especially when that president has an 81 percent approval rating among your party.
Click to expand...

kos said:
On the flip side, if you think Clinton can’t win against Donald Trump, you are a fucking moron. Seriously, you are as dumb as rocks
Click to expand...

Despite the above, that doesn’t mean that the map now becomes more favorable to Sanders. The three caucuses mentioned above look good for him, sure, but they only have 83 delegates combined. Louisiana, meanwhile, has 51, and then next Tuesday Michigan (130) and Mississippi (36) both get to vote. Clinton leads comfortably in both those states as of now. Then a week later, on March 15, Florida (214), Illinois (156), Missouri (71), North Carolina (107), and Ohio (143) all get to vote, and all available polling shows Clinton leading comfortably.
Click to expand...

Cenk could take some lessons on how to be a good liberal shill.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I think best possible scenario regarding the house is to win as many seats as humanly possible during 2016

minimize the damage in 2018

hope that in 2020 it is within realistic striking distance to win back.
Click to expand...

You also have to take back state seats and governorships to reduce gerrymandering. It's a fucking mess.

Which means we not only need to mobilize Democrats on off years,a historical improbability but also need to curb blvoter ID laws
 
C

CCS

Banned
Romney calling for Trump to release his tax returns has to be the peak of the Republicans' decades long quest to reach absolute zero self-awareness.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Gruco said:
I stopped reading dkos pretty early in Obama's presidency. I couldn't handle the cesspool of sellout accusations. I've been catching up on kos's commentary for this election, and man, I seriously love him. He's a great analyst but has no pretense about coming at everything from a bare-knuckled "democrats first" perspective.

Some recent highlights:



Cenk could take some lessons on how to be a good liberal shill.
Click to expand...

That DWS burn was hot fire, love it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Firing DWS is the olive branch that can bring Hillraisers and Berniebros together.

If she has to be sacrificed for our glorious Queen's coronation, then so be it.
 
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