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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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M

Maledict

Member
Splendor said:
I think the biggest takeaway from this debate is a confirmation that Trump is not some infallable God that cannot dodges every hit in a debate, but rather that no one had taken any serious shots up to this point.
I think it comes too late in the primaries to matter but it bodes well for the future where Hilary faces off against Trump 1 on 1.
Also I guran-damn-tee he drops a slur before the election.
Click to expand...

Romney would have eviscerated him in the primary. Why it's taken up until now for someone to do it is beyond me, but the *one* thing his team was good at was taking other candidates out of the fight with an orbital bombardment of assaults.

Trump is really thin skinned, not very good at pivoting, and has baggage the likes of which make Newt Gingrich look like a saint. It's a mark of how appallingly incompetent and lazy the republican's have been to let it get to this stage.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Watched that Hardball Sanders interview.
It was rough for a bit, but it didn't really seem as bad overall as people made it out to be.
Click to expand...

I think the questions/statements themselves gave the perception that they were effective criticisms of Bernie than Bernie's actual responses to those questions/statements, but I wouldn't have expected anything less from poliGAF.
 
O

Oltsu

Banned
I don't think the media propping up Rubio so hard after the debate is actually going to matter at all.

Voters don't care. Trump did average, the margins on super tuesday wont move and he'll keep dominating.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Only two possible delegate outcomes: 1) Trump as nominee or 2) a contested convention

That's our conclusion after doing some back-of-envelope math looking ahead to Super Tuesday and the winner-take-all March 15 contests.

Trump currently has a 64-delegate lead over his nearest competition: Trump 81, Cruz 17, Rubio 17, Kasich 8, Carson 5
Trump could emerge with 100-plus delegate lead after Super Tuesday: Trump 289, Rubio 184, Cruz 154, Kasich 53, Carson 41 (assuming a Trump 35%, Rubio 28%, Cruz 23%, Kasich 8%, Carson 6% proportional split of delegates)
If Trump win Florida and Ohio, he's more than halfway to nomination: And if Trump wins the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio on March 15, he's at 650 delegates -- more than half of the 1,237 needed to win the GOP nomination (That assumes Trump wins 35% of the delegates up for grabs in the March 5-12 contests, as well as 35% of the proportional states on March 15.) Trump 650, Rubio 340, Cruz 278.
If Rubio wins Florida and Ohio, he'll have a small lead over Trump: But if Rubio wins winner-take-all Florida AND Ohio, Rubio emerges with a *slight* overall delegate lead: Rubio 505, Trump 485, Cruz 278.
If Kasich wins Ohio, Trump will have slight lead: But if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida, it's Trump 485, Rubio 439, Cruz 278, Kasich 148
Click to expand...

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-rubio-seizes-moment-it-too-late-n526521
 
B

Bowdz

Member
I think once Trump starts hitting Rubio for the Gang of 8 bill at his rallies, he will start hurting. That is Rubio's albatross and it always will be in the primary. I am still baffled that he didn't drop it against Rubio last night. Trump just needs to do what he does best now, which is insult the shit out of Rubio on the stump and dominate the headlines until Tuesday.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
The media says what they want, I think we've seen plenty of times that it doesn't really matter. Remember when Fiorina won a debate and was surging to take on Trump? Yeah...

A big part of the narrative from all the candidates is "media bias" and I think voters are more aware of agendas in the media. They don't shape perception as much as it did in the past. Honestly I think "meme worthy" moments have a bigger effect. Stuff that can easily be shared on Twitter/Vine/Facebook or briefly mentioned in the office without resorting to a full blown discussion (basically stuff like Rubio-bot). I didn't see any moments like that last night so this debate is probably a non-factor, no matter how much Fox News tries to tell people it is.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Oltsu said:
Yes but Hillary's numbers among whites are even worse than Trump's. And with Trump's clear strengths and Hillary's weaknesses a lot of the white working class vote that usually goes democrat could be up for grabs for Trump.

I'm not saying that it's a likely avenue for winning, just that it's the strategy he's going to use against Hillary.

I also don't like polling of the general population this far out. Do the same polls a month or two after the nomination and we'll see how well each candidate has been able to shape their message and persona for the GE.
Click to expand...

I think it depends on ideology and at the same time class. It could be very well that he will perform worse than college educated whites and the ones with high income, and it depends on how much the white working class voted for Obama in 2012. It may not be all that important as Trump's support could mostly come from red states anyway and in blue states, it might not matter too much that it will change much. It also matters if these voters prioritize the economy and/or single issue voters over everything else. Trump's crudeness and lack of specifics could hurt him, since Hillary have and will propose policies that will most likely help them. It depends how she goes about it; Bernie Sanders pretty much prepped her.


Also Trump could lose more in minorities and the 'other' category therefor needing to make it up with more whites potentially meaning a few million more white voters need to turnout overall. The problem with that it basically counters each other( losing GOP minority voters) and that doesn't benefit him. In the general, I don't see him doing well in the more educated and wealth people. Based on that Hillary just needs to look more presidential while trying to court more whites after that it is a done deal.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
I think Rubio's political career is over after this primary.

Floridians don't like him or want him the office.
GOP gubernatorial hopefuls like Atwater or Bondi, who have waited patiently for their turn, have no reason to clear the path to the Governor's Mansion for him, especially if the senate seat he abandoned for this vanity run is won by a Democrat.
He'll look like an idiot running for the Senate again after publicly saying how much he hated being a senator.

And the Bush machine is still influential in this state. Marco Rubio is done.
 
JetBlackPanda

JetBlackPanda

Member
It's funny if you read comments on most of these articles about the debate last night. Trump didn't lose anything last night, no mater how hard the media is spinning it that way.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
QuiteWhittle said:
I think Rubio's political career is over after this primary.

Floridians don't like him or want him the office.
GOP gubernatorial hopefuls like Atwater or Bondi, who have waited patiently for their turn, have no reason to clear the path to the Governor's Mansion for him, especially if the senate seat he abandoned for this vanity run is won by a Democrat.
He'll look like an idiot running for the Senate again after publicly saying how much he hated being a senator.

And the Bush machine is still influential in this state. Marco Rubio is done.
Click to expand...

He's not done until he drops from the race.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Ben Carson is probably the worst politician to ever run for president (maybe elected office in general) and he still beat Jeb in 90% of the polls after August, it's incredible.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
QuiteWhittle said:
I think Rubio's political career is over after this primary.

Floridians don't like him or want him the office.
GOP gubernatorial hopefuls like Atwater or Bondi, who have waited patiently for their turn, have no reason to clear the path to the Governor's Mansion for him, especially if the senate seat he abandoned for this vanity run is won by a Democrat.
He'll look like an idiot running for the Senate again after publicly saying how much he hated being a senator.

And the Bush machine is still influential in this state. Marco Rubio is done.
Click to expand...

Not if he is the nominee though!
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Lying Ted Cruz and leightweight chocker Marco Rubio teamed up last night in a last ditch effort to stop our great movement. They failed!
Click to expand...
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Leightweight chocker Marco Rubio looks like a little boy on stage. Not presidential material!
Click to expand...

Uhhh, is this intentional?

Edit:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Lightweight Marco Rubio was working hard last night. The problem is, he is a choker, and once a choker, always a chocker! Mr. Meltdown.
Click to expand...

Has to be intentional.
 
C

CCS

Banned
There once was a GOP chocker,
Who many thought was a focker,
He was full of conceit,
And got stuck on repeat,
Then had nothing left in his locker.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Elaugaufein said:
You do realize you cannot win without getting at least 1/6th of 60% of the vote right ? Whites may not have a stranglehold on elections anymore but completely writing them off is a terrible idea. And the dismissive attitude feeds into resentment that the GOP love.
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Lucky for us, most white people aren't actively racist.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
This idea about Trump winning so much of the white vote in the general.. One key part of this recipe is that he'd have to do surprisingly well among white female voters (who vote higher than white men). I'm not buying that he'd improve his margins enough there to offset the slaughtering he'd get from non-white voters.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Elaugaufein said:
You do realize you cannot win without getting at least 1/6th of 60% of the vote right ? Whites may not have a stranglehold on elections anymore but completely writing them off is a terrible idea. And the dismissive attitude feeds into resentment that the GOP love.
Click to expand...

I.. don't think Clinton is going to pull less than 16% of the white vote. A non-trivial number of whites thought Obama was fucking illegitimate and he still got 40%.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
CCS said:
There once was a GOP chocker,
Who many thought was a focker,
He was full of conceit,
And got stuck on repeat,
Then had nothing left in his locker.
Click to expand...

gMfjR0w.gif
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PBY said:
Okay basically read all of the major sites' recaps of last night.

I'm a little shook.
Click to expand...

All of the attacks Trump took will barely move the needle with the general base.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The Technomancer said:
Okay. So I missed the debate last night. From the sounds of it a more shameful display than usual?
Click to expand...

Cruz: "Well it's interesting that Trump is basically proposing socialized medicine."
Trump: "I won't let people die in the streets."
Rubio: "I thought this was a Republican debate!"

Rubio: "Trump, you have no health care plan!" *never brings up that he has no plan either*

Cruz: "Well it's interesting that I beat Hillary in general election polls whereas you, Trump, lose to Hillary in the general election polls."
Trump: "You're losing so bad to me it's embarrassing. If Hillary beats me, she's going to kill you."

Carson: "The fruit salad of their life."
 
P

PBY

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Cruz: "Well it's interesting that Trump is basically proposing socialized medicine."
Trump: "I won't let people die in the streets."
Rubio: "I thought this was a Republican debate!"

Rubio: "Trump, you have no health care plan!" *never brings up that he has no plan either*

Cruz: "Well it's interesting that I beat Hillary in general election polls whereas you, Trump, lose to Hillary in the general election polls."
Trump: "You're losing so bad to me it's embarrassing. If Hillary beats me, she's going to kill you."

Carson: "The fruit salad of their life."
Click to expand...

*motions to left* LIAR *motions to right* CHOKE ARTIST
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
What absolutely destroyed me was the like 2 minutes where it was just unintelligible yelling between each other. I forgot what they were arguing about but it made all of them look like a bunch of idiot children. I could not imagine voting for any of them.
 
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